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John Olerud, HOF snub?


nymr83

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Posted


This is the problem with lowering standards. Jim Rice was a horrible selection for the Hall of Fame, but now people have a new "low" to compare borderline/undeserving players to. See also: Sutter, Bruce; Dawson, Andre.


Posted


This is the problem with lowering standards. Jim Rice was a horrible selection for the Hall of Fame, but now people have a new "low" to compare borderline/undeserving players to. See also: Sutter, Bruce; Dawson, Andre.

Rice is tied for 29th in MVP Shares. Every player above him who's NOT in the HoF is not yet eligible (Bonds, Pujols, ARod, Rose, Griffey), except for Dave Parker, who I think should be in as well. I'm not saying that he's not "borderline," necessarily, but he's definitely on the correct side of that line now.


Posted


RealityChuck wrote:
Edgy DC wrote:
Award shares are fun, but they're not particularly scientific.

Neither is determining who gets into the Hall of Fame. Nor should it be.

Which is why I think award shares -- at least for my imaginary "vote" -- are important. Did a guy dominate enough that he got recognized repeatedly among the best players in the league? Then that counts.


Posted


RealityChuck wrote:
Edgy DC wrote:
Award shares are fun, but they're not particularly scientific.

Neither is determining who gets into the Hall of Fame. Nor should it be.

Presented as accumulated comparative data, they are represented as having a scientific basis.

Which is why I think award shares -- at least for my imaginary "vote" -- are important. Did a guy dominate enough that he got recognized repeatedly among the best players in the league? Then that counts.

Well then we get to the jump-off-the-Empire-State situation. It kind of washes your hands of having to think about it yourself.


Posted


be interesting to see what would happen if you somehow did award shares based on WAR. i don't know what the formulation would be, but it'd be interesting. i'm thinking of something a little more intresting than just a linear attribution of points to the top ten players in the league. i picture mathematics being involved.

damn. now i'm going to be trying to think up a way to do this for like the next month... too bad i don't have any training coming up!


Posted


Edgy DC wrote:
Which is why I think award shares -- at least for my imaginary "vote" -- are important. Did a guy dominate enough that he got recognized repeatedly among the best players in the league? Then that counts.

Well then we get to the jump-off-the-Empire-State situation. It kind of washes your hands of having to think about it yourself.

Wrong. It's confirming what I remember, and validating my opinion that Jim Rice was a dominant player in the AL from the late 70s into the mid 80s.


Posted


Whether a guy dominated and whether the writers who vote for the awards were recognizing that dominance are not the same question. "award shares" answers the 2nd question not the first.


Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
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Posted


Why should the Hall of Fame be scientific? And hell, what's with all those stupid numbers, anyway-- this isn't mathball!

I like Wily Mo Pena's look, swing, and general mien. That Pagan beard still makes me blush with envy, and Hrabosky sure could hit that glove like a champ. Also, Doug Flynn has a nice voice. Can't we find room for these guys in there, elitists?


Posted


Rice got 3.15 MVP shares, good for 29th, sure, but the likes of Craig Biggio got 1.02, good for 233rd.

Given a chance to add one or the other's career to my organization, I don't hesitate in picking Biggio's.


Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr
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Posted


Lou Whitaker got even fewer, and I'd probably take him over Biggio. Not the writers, though.

In a way, though, isn't it kind of appropriately head-up-ass to use flawed BBWAA MVP voting results to determine who gets votes in a flawed BBWAA HOF process?


Posted


MVP shares?, if you got to root that deep into the bullshit bag to validate a guy then he's just not a HOF player.


Posted


metirish wrote:
MVP shares?, if you got to root that deep into the bullshit bag to validate a guy then he's just not a HOF player.


Laughed out loud at "the bullshit bag"


Posted


so i created an awards share generator. i'll call it SimMVP for now.

basically what i did was take the top so many players in a league for a given year, and run a monte carlo simulation for the WAR value for their performance with a normal distribution having a standard deviation of 0.667 WAR, and ranking the players. for each of 4000 monte carlo runs, i mocked up a mvp ballot whereby the top player gets 10 points, the 2nd gets 9, etc etc etc. award share is determined hte same as it is ob bbref, total points divided by maximum theoretical value of 10*4000.

it's cumbersome, and really slows up my computer, and i currently have no way of tabulating results for multiple players, and do not want to run it for individual players any more than i already have.

but based on this toy, i get 1.59 MVP shares for rice, and 1.61 award shares for olerud.

well, that's what i get if i allow pitchers to be eligible for the award. and since they are, that's what i get. no, i don't want to do it for just hitters. i could, i just don't really want to. did i mention that it's time comsuming?

i can also generate a notional voting result based on a voting population of 40 persons.

using this toy, i've got jose reyes 10th in the 2011 NL MVP vote with 25% of the vote

[table:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]player[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]5[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]6[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]7[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]8[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]9[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]10[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]off[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]SimMVP%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Matt Kemp[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]25[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]10[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]95%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Roy Halladay[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]10[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]15[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]9[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]87%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Ryan Braun[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]10[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]14[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]6[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]80%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Joey Votto[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]7[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]7[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]5[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]49%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Clayton Kershaw[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]7[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]6[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]6[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]47%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Cliff Lee[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]5[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]6[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]6[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]5[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]6[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]42%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Justin Upton[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]5[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]11[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]30%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Troy Tulowitzki[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]13[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]27%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Jose Reyes[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]15[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]24%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Brandon Phillips[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]4[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]21[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]17%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Shane Victorino[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]23[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]15%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Andrew McCutchen[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]28[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]10%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Madison Bumgarner[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]31[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]7%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Prince Fielder[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]31[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]6%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Matt Cain[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]36[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]3%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Albert Pujols[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]37[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]2%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Lance Berkman[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]37[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Ian Kennedy[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]37[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Matt Holliday[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]38[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Matt Garza[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]38[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Chris Carpenter[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]38[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Cole Hamels[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]38[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][tr:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]Daniel Hudson[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]-[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]1[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]38[/td:22u2l0sm][td:22u2l0sm]0%[/td:22u2l0sm][/tr:22u2l0sm][/table:22u2l0sm]


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The Grand Central Mets Caretaker Fund
The Grand Central Mets Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Mets community on the internet.

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