2011 player awards

[Vic Sage]

thread for player awards:

you can either guess predictions or offer recommendations --

[u:2327gj8h]MVP[/u:2327gj8h]
NL: R.Braun (mil) - toss up with Kemp; edge to Braun for getting his team to post-season
AL: M.Cabrera (det) - with Bautista, Ellsbury and Verlander close behind; edge to the everyday player on a post-season team

[u:2327gj8h]Aaron[/u:2327gj8h]
NL: Kemp (LA) - practically won the triple crown; leader in almost every meaningful stat (with Braun close behind)
AL: Bautista (Tor) - HRs and BBs are a potent combo; AL WAR leader, tied with Cabrera in OPS+ and Runs Created

I wouldn't argue if either or both of these guys won the MVP, too. But, while in the past i rejected the criteria of "playing on a post-season team" that had crept into MVP voting over time, I have, since the creation of the "AAron" award, been willing to consider team success as an additional criteria for the MVP, and have given players on post-season teams a slight edge over the comparable AARON winners above, due to their impact on teams that made it to the post-season, as well as the additional pressure of playing for a playoff spot.

The establishment of the AARON award also allowed me to consider pitchers more seriously for MVP (though the award's rules and past results always required voters to do so), since hitters have come to have their own award like pitchers do, and so there is no need to hijack the award (as i had often recommended in the past) to remedy the problem of there being no award for the best hitter in each league (That the AARON lacks the history and cache of the Cy Young does not mean the award doesn't exist). So i view Verlander's MVP candidacy as totally justifiable, too.

[u:2327gj8h]Cy Young[/u:2327gj8h]
NL: Kershaw (LA)
AL: Verlander (Det)

Both these pitchers won the pitching triple crown in their respective leagues this year; this is a no-brainer.

[u:2327gj8h]Rolaids[/u:2327gj8h]
NL: Kimbrel (Atl) - the SV leader also lead NL closers with WAR of 3; Hanrahan, Axford and Putz were close behind. Best setup guy was Kimbrel's teammate, Venters with a WAR of 3.7! He should get some consideration, but he won't.
AL: Rivera (NY) - though Valverde had a few more SVs, Rivera led in all other categories, including ERA+, WHIP and WAR.

ROY - i don't know who is eligible. Anybody?

[Ceetar]

for rookies this should help

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_rookie.jsp

It'll be Kimbrel though in the NL.

and Hosmer in the AL.

Cy Young I agree with.

Kershaw
Verlander (I picked Verlander preseason, so whee..)

MVP

I'll get to the others.

Edited October 21, 2011 by Guest

[Vic Sage]

[u:te82214v]ROY[/u:te82214v]
NL: Kimbrel (atl) - this likely Rolaids winner should have the edge over teammate Freddie Freeman
AL: Hellickson (TB) - Hellickson's 4.2 WAR and solid numbers should edge out pre-season fave 1bman Hosmer (KC) and slugger Mark Trumbo (LAA), and LAA closer Walden. I suppose Ivan Nova will get some support, too.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Kimbrel will take the NL ROY, but I'm not so sure it shouldn't be one of the Nats-- Espinosa and Ramos both posted .330ish wOBAs, and a butt-ton of power (21 HR in 658 PAs and 15 HR in 435 PAs, respectively) from prime defensive positions they each manned pretty capably.

Also, I'm not sure about the root of the difference, but Fangraphs and B-R differ widely on Hellickson's overall value this year.

[MFS62]

Speaking of rookies, Duda gets recognition from BA:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/awards/rookie-of-the-year/2011/2612464.html

Later

[ashie62]

AL ROY TRUMBO
NL KIMBREL

[Vic Sage]

Vic Sage wrote: ROY NL: Kimbrel (atl) - this likely Rolaids winner should have the edge over teammate Freddie Freeman AL: Hellickson (TB) - Hellickson's 4.2 WAR and solid numbers should edge out pre-season fave 1bman Hosmer (KC) and slugger Mark Trumbo (LAA), and LAA closer Walden. I suppose Ivan Nova will get some support, too.

I called it: Kimbrel and Hellickson, and it wasn't even close.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2011.shtml

[Frayed Knot]

Kimbrel is unanimous, and the rest of the NL field has a distinctly NL East feel to it ... with the exception of a team or two anyway.
And does anyone besides me think of the cop on the train from 'The Fugitive' who screams, "KIMBLE" upon recognizing Harrison Ford every time this guy comes into a game?

PLAYER	TEAM	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	Points
Jeremy Hellickson	Rays	17	5	2	102
Mark Trumbo	Angels	5	11	5	63
Eric Hosmer	Royals	4	4	6	38
Ivan Nova	Yanx	1	5	10	30
Michael Pineda	Mariners	0	3	2	11
Dustin Ackley	Mariners	1	0	1	6
Desmond Jennings	Rays	0	0	1	1
Jordan Walden	Angels	0	0	1	1

PLAYER	TEAM	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	Points
Craig Kimbrel	Braves	32	0	0	160
Freddie Freeman	Braves	0	21	7	70
Vance Worley	Phils	0	8	16	40
Wilson Ramos	Nationals	0	1	3	6
Josh Collmenter	DBacks	0	1	2	5
Danny Espinosa	Nationals	0	1	0	3
Darwin Barney	Cubs	0	0	2	2
Kenley Jansen	Dodgers	0	0	2	2

[seawolf17]

Remember early in the season when we were talking about Turner making some RoY noise? Yeah.

[Vic Sage]

Aaron Award -- NL: Kemp (LA) - practically won the triple crown; leader in almost every meaningful stat (with Braun close behind) AL: Bautista (Tor) - HRs and BBs are a potent combo; AL WAR leader, tied with Cabrera in OPS+ and Runs Created

yeah, i got that one, too:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20111024&content_id=25776912&vkey=pr_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Edited November 15, 2011 by Guest

[Vic Sage]

Congrats to David Freese, for winning both the WS MVP and the NLCS MVP (Nelson Cruz won in the ALCS)

Edited November 15, 2011 by Guest

[Vic Sage]

congrats, too, to the COMEBACK PLAYERS OF THE YEAR: Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos) and Lance Berkman (Stl)

[Vic Sage]

2011 GGs:

(NL)
Kershaw (P)
Molina ©
Votto (1B)
Phillips (2B)
Polanco (3B)
Tulowitzki (SS)
Parra (LF)
Kemp (CF)
Ethier (RF)

(AL)
Buehrle (P)
Wieters ©
A.Gonzalez (1B)
Pedroia (2B)
Beltre (3B)
Aybar (SS)
Gordon (LF)
Ellsbury (CF)
Markakis (RF)

[Vic Sage]

2011 Silver Sluggers:

[u:16njc4ei]NL[/u:16njc4ei]
McCann ©
Fielder (1B)
Phillips (2B)*
A.Ramirez (3b)
Tulowitzki (SS)*
j.Upton (OF)
Kemp (OF)*
Braun (OF)
Hudson (p)

[u:16njc4ei]AL[/u:16njc4ei]
Avila ©
A.Gonzalez (1B)*
Cano (2B)
Beltre (3B)*
As.Cabrera (SS)
Granderson (OF)
Ellsbury (OF)*
Bautista (OF)
D.Ortiz (dh)

* = also a GG winner

[Vic Sage]

ROLAIDS winners = AXFORD (NL) and VALVERDE (AL)

Rolaids -- NL: Kimbrel (Atl) - the SV leader also lead NL closers with WAR of 3; Hanrahan, Axford and Putz were close behind. Best setup guy was Kimbrel's teammate, Venters with a WAR of 3.7! He should get some consideration, but he won't. AL: Rivera (NY) - though Valverde had a few more SVs, Rivera led in all other categories, including ERA+, WHIP and WAR.

I blew this one because i didn't realize it was based on a formula:
*2 points for a win
*3 points for a save
*4 points for a "tough save" (reliever enters a game with the tying run already on base and gets the save)
*-2 points for a loss
*-2 for a blown save

what do we think of using a formula, and of this formula in particular?

[Vic Sage]

next up, CYs and MVPs

[Edgy MD]

seawolf17 wrote: Remember early in the season when we were talking about Turner making some RoY noise? Yeah.

They'd do themselves a favor if they asked for than three names on the ballot --- giving that many more players a small feather in their caps, that many more teams a reason to write a press release, and that many more fans a brief warm fuzzy, seeing their team had a guy finish eighth.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: seawolf17 wrote: Remember early in the season when we were talking about Turner making some RoY noise? Yeah. They'd do themselves a favor if they asked for than three names on the ballot --- giving that many more players a small feather in their caps, that many more teams a reason to write a press release, and that many more fans a brief warm fuzzy, seeing their team had a guy finish eighth.

And also might force the voters to look into more than the popular choice.

Verlander for cy Young. shocker. Unanimous.

[Vic Sage]

I blew this one because i didn't realize it was based on a formula: *2 points for a win *3 points for a save *4 points for a "tough save" (reliever enters a game with the tying run already on base and gets the save) *-2 points for a loss *-2 for a blown save what do we think of using a formula, and of this formula in particular?

thoughts?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Everyone knows that wins are a faulty stat, but they're even more faulty for relief pitchers than for starters. (By a LOT.)

I'd say start with 1 point for a save and 3 for a "tough save". I'd forget wins and losses and try to incorporate some way of measuring inherited runners stranded and baserunners allowed.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Everyone knows that wins are a faulty stat, but they're even more faulty for relief pitchers than for starters. (By a LOT.) I'd say start with 1 point for a save and 3 for a "tough save". I'd forget wins and losses and try to incorporate some way of measuring inherited runners stranded and baserunners allowed.

Well yeah, in this formula, if a reliever blows a save that gives up the lead, it's entirely up to his offense whether or not he gets 2 points for a win, or loses 2 points for a loss. I'd consider differentiating Blown save and Blown lead. Hugely different if you blow the save but the game remains tied.

[Edgy MD]

What do you do for the guy who enters with the tying run on base and no out in the seventh or eighth, bails his team out, and sees Mr. Bigstuff enter with a clean slate in the ninth and get the save?

[Edgy MD]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Everyone knows that wins are a faulty stat....

Oh, there are still some holdouts.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: What do you do for the guy who enters with the tying run on base and no out in the seventh or eighth, bails his team out, and sees Mr. Bigstuff enter with a clean slate in the ninth and get the save?

claim he has a close mentality and make the Yankees over pay for him.

[metsmarathon]

this might be a good time to spin up the 'bot...

that said, since the award is called the rolaids relief award, it should perhaps be open to all relief pitchers not just closers. also, the wins is stupid. losses and blown saves less so.

i was just wandering through fangraphs and noticed a nifty little stat on there. SD, or shutdowns, and its companion MD or meltdowns.

a shutdown is when your reliever shuts down his opponent, and has a +6% impact on the likelihood of winning a game (+0.06 WPA), while a meltdown is the opposite - a reliever has a -6% impact on the liklihood of winning the game (-0.06 WPA).

to quote those fine folks,

fangraphs"]- The +/- 6% cutoff for Shutdowns and Meltdowns puts SDs and MDs on a similar scale as Saves and Holds, meaning 40 shutdowns is roughly as impressive as 40 saves. - Shutdowns and Meltdowns correlate very well with saves and blown saves; in other words, dominant relievers are going to rack up both saves and shutdowns, while bad relievers will rack up the meltdowns and blown saves. But Shutdowns and Meltdowns provide value by giving more weight to middle relievers, showing how they can affect a game just as much as a closer can.

and so i propose shutdowns - meltdowns as the metric to be used.

the leaders:

Player	SD	MD	SD-MD
venters	47	6	41
axford	43	3	40
valverde	38	5	33
madson	35	4	31
clippard	40	10	30
rivera	37	7	30
storen	40	10	30
robertson	37	8	29
adams	37	8	29
o'flaherty	36	7	29
rodriguez	37	8	29
putz	35	7	28
cordero	34	6	28
papelbon	32	4	28
hanrahan	35	8	27
hernandez	35	8	27
perez	37	10	27
balfour	32	6	26
kimbrel	35	10	25
nunez	33	8	25

[Frayed Knot]

Apparently having your first name start with a J was big for voters this year.
So if Santana gets votes when the NL results are published then we'll really know something's up.

PLAYER	TEAM	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place	5th Place	Points
Justin Verlander	Tigers	28	0	0	0	0	140
Jered Weaver	Angels	0	17	8	2	1	97
James Shields	Rays	0	5	9	8	3	66
CC Sabathia	Yanx	0	5	7	9	4	63
Jose Valverde	Tigers	0	1	3	6	3	28
CJ Wilson	Rangers	0	0	0	1	3	9
Dan Haren	Angels	0	0	1	1	2	7
Mariano Rivera	Yanx	0	0	0	0	4	4
Josh Beckett	Red Sox	0	0	0	0	3	3
Ricky Romero	Blue Jays	0	0	0	1	0	2
David Robertson	Yanx	0	0	0	0	1	1

[Ceetar]

David Robertson got a 5th place vote huh? good for him..

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

He had an unbelievable year. I wonder how his shitty brother is doing.

[Frayed Knot]

MoYs --- aka: Terry gets a vote!!

MGR	TEAM	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	Points
Joe Madden	Rays	26	1	0	133
Jim Leyland	Tigers	1	13	10	54
Ron Washington	Rangers	1	7	5	31
Manny Acta	Indians	0	3	7	16
Joe Girardi	Yanx	0	3	5	14
Mike Scioscia	Angels	0	1	1	4

MGR	TEAM	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	Points
Kirk Gibson	DBacks	28	4	0	152
Ron Roenicke	Brewers	3	25	2	92
Tony LaRussa	Cardinals	1	2	13	24
Charlie Manuel	Phillies	0	1	7	10
Fredi Gonzalez	Braves	0	0	4	4
Clint Hurdle	Pirates	0	0	2	2
Bruce Bochy	Giants	0	0	2	2
Terry Collins	Mets	0	0	1	1
Don Mattingly	Dodgers	0	0	1	1

[Edgy MD]

Go, Terry!