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Schaefer 2011

Benjamin Grimm

By Benjamin Grimm
in New York Mets Talk

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m.e.t.b.o.t. Prep Ball

m.e.t.b.o.t.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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while m.e.t.b.o.t. does not have a heart, m.e.t.b.o.t. does have a clockwork spring which is the primary source of m.e.t.b.o.t.'s locomotion. it is the mecahnical analog to a biological heart. since m.e.t.b.o.t. typically operates at room temperature, has little thermal mass, and generates almost no heat during operation due to an effective graphite lubricant which minimizes friction, it is more accurate to say that m.e.t.b.o.t. is somewhat cool throughout. however, were m.e.t.b.o.t. to be placed into a cold environment, the clockwork spring would quickly lose its thermal energy and turn similarly cold. m.e.t.b.o.t. would likely remain operational, but would run the risk of condensation freezing up the delicate machanisms stuffed somewhat haphazardly within the outer tinny shell.

regarding the performance of the metropolitan pitcher jon niese, m.e.t.b.o.t. utilized a data-driven approach to arrive at the final allocation of 1.81 schaeffer points.

it is worth noting that in the game, metropolitan pitcher jon niese accrued +153 WPA, +32 of which came as a batter. as a pitcher, he accrued +121 WPA.

entering the bottom of the first inning, the metropolitans already had a 62.9% probability of winning the game. the metropolitans exited the bottom of the third with a 59.4% probability of winning hte game. in the bottom of the first inning, metropolitan pitcher jon niese decreased the probaility of the metroploitans winning the game by 3.5%. viewing the data in tabular form shows the following:

[table:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]inning[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]start[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]end[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]delta[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]bottom 1[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]62.9%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]59.4%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]-3.5%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]bottom 2[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]54.4%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]60.2%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]5.8%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]bottom 3[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]54.8%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]61.2%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]6.4%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]bottom 4[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]83.2%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]81.6%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]-1.6%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]bottom 5[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]78.2%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]84.4%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]6.2%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]bottom 6[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]81.2%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]87.7%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]6.5%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]bottom 7[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]95.0%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]87.4%[/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]-7.6%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][tr:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq][/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq][/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq][/td:1d50dxsq][td:1d50dxsq]12.2%[/td:1d50dxsq][/tr:1d50dxsq][/table:1d50dxsq]

despite decreaseing hte probability of winning the game for the metropolitans in three innings, metropolitan pitcehr jon niese actually increased the probability of the metropolitans winning the game in four innings, and overall had a positive effect on the probability of winning the game. while it is true that metropolitan right fielder carlos beltran created much of the opportunity for this, it still remains that the pitcher maintained the lead. and from the perspective of a short metallic robot with a room-temperature heart, this is all that matters, and all that the data instructs.

actually, on reviewing the data, m.e.t.b.o.t. should point out that metropolitan pitcher jon niese was decremented 6 WPA due to the defensive efforts of metropolitan shortstop jose reyes. in the fourth inning, jose reyes was awarded a web gem for the play in which he threw out colorado rockies catcher jose morales at first base. this play resulted in an increase in teh probability of the metropolitans winning the game by 1.2%, or 12 WPA. while last year, m.e.t.bo.t. would have awarded the entirity of those 12 WPA to the fielder, this year, m.e.t.b.o.t. has an updated algorithm which awards only half of the WPA to the fielder to resolve an apparent imbalance. therefore, metropolitan shortstop was awarded an increase of 6 WPA whereas metroploitan pitcher jon niese was debited 6 WPA. this decreased the schaefer points awarded to metropolitan pitcher jon niese by 0.07, from 1.88 to 1.81, and similarly increased the points awarded to metropolitan shortstop jose reyes from 0.39 to 0.47


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seawolf17 College Ball

seawolf17

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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And apparently none of y'all saw the Willie Harris play to save a run in the fourth, or Beltran going flat-out and then hopping up to double up Infante and save a run in the fifth. Either (or both) of those would have made everything else moot.


metsmarathon College Ball

metsmarathon

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


TransMonk wrote:
I hate this thread. Almost as much as I hate doling out Schaefer points in a loss.

metsmarathon wrote:
the outcome of the game neither defines nor negates the efforts of the players.

I disagree with this statement.

Pelf did all the heavy lifting and got shafted by his offense.


i'm not arguing against the 5 for pelfrey at all - if i were i'd mention something about only getting one strikeout. i'm arguing against the big fat zero for everybody else, especially o'connor and niese, who really could not have done more to help the mets win given their opportunities.

i just wonder, if we won the game, would o'connor get some beer? and how does a pitcher hitting a pinch-hit triple with two outs in the bottom of the eleventh not get a sip?

i don't intend to be combative. i'm merely hoping to raise a philosophical point. i think we get stingy in losses is all.

and if the efforts of oconnor and niese are negated by the loss, then why aren't pelfrey's.


metsmarathon College Ball

metsmarathon

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


seawolf17 wrote:
And apparently none of y'all saw the Willie Harris play to save a run in the fourth, or Beltran going flat-out and then hopping up to double up Infante and save a run in the fifth. Either (or both) of those would have made everything else moot.


well, willie harris went 0-4 with two k's and 2 lob's. that pretty much negated and really outweighed his defensive contribution for me. granted it was a fairly high leverage situation, but i don't factor that in. perhaps that could be a future upgrade to the 'bot...


TransMonk College Ball

TransMonk

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


metsmarathon wrote:
i think we get stingy in losses is all.

I'm of the opinion that we should be stingy in losses. Rewarding players the same regardless of the desired team outcome seems insane to me. I give 10 points total for wins and 5 points total for losses (and prior to this season, I didn't vote in losses at all). Some people have formulas that they plug into various spreadsheets, databases or other abaci. I don't have the patience for all that. I only use round numbers and I score based on my gut.

One of the things I love about Schaefer is that we all have unique and individual scoring methods. One of the things I hate about Schaefer is when scores are critiqued. If any scoring method is inferior, then we should all just decide on a dedicated formula and the math can just tell me who the PotG is.

Izzy got 2 big outs. O'Conner got 3. Pelfrey got 21, has been pitching his ass off lately and outlasted one of the best pitchers in the league last night. If O'Conner misses the Reliever of the Month award by the pro-rated .34 points I "should" have given him (for a clean inning, which is exactly what should be expected of him in that situation), then I'll personally send him a six-pack.


ashie62 Draft Eligible

ashie62

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


The Pelfrey "only" 5's are from the Russan judge.

But really, voting can take a weird turn after a tough loss.

Sometimes we are just tired when we vote late at night and are not at our best.

I usually vote for defense..Like Beltran last night, or a well called game by a catcher.

But I forgot, yes forgot, about Willie Harris's play cause I can't standing the fucking guy.

The 2011 Voting for bullpen outings seems more competitive and thorough than in other years.


Gwreck Draft Eligible

Gwreck

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


Couple of thoughts:

1. I did consider Willie Harris' play, but was of the opinion that his going 0-4 negated the positive effects of his play. I did however give bump up to Beltran for his play. This might be unfair of me.

2. I agree that we should be stingy in losses. If too many points are handed out in losses, than it negates the effect of good wins when multiple people contribute.

--

I personally enjoy this thread. I mean no disrespect to anyone else but it baffles me that people dislike their Schaefer voting methodology questioned and/or discussed. Isn't that the point of a message board? Nobody's taking away your right to vote however you see fit but I really don't see the harm in civil discussion about it.


TransMonk College Ball

TransMonk

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


Gwreck wrote:
I personally enjoy this thread. I mean no disrespect to anyone else but it baffles me that people dislike their Schaefer voting methodology questioned and/or discussed. Isn't that the point of a message board? Nobody's taking away your right to vote however you see fit but I really don't see the harm in civil discussion about it.

You're right. I was a little testy this morning. Last night's cock-punch of a game had a lot to do with it.

I know marathon meant no harm in asking about the logic. I just got up on the wrong side of the bed.


Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket

Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket

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Posted
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People hold their Schaffer very sacred, and they don't even know it. It must be the combination of the finest hops and barley.


metsmarathon College Ball

metsmarathon

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


oh good. then i'm glad i just accidentally closed the window wherein i was writing up a scathing reply using all the bad words i've learned from fman over the years. whew! that would have been awkward.

i still think that o'connor went above and beyond in getting 2 strikeouts facing the opposition's 3-4-5 in the 10th inning, and that he and niese should get something out of it. while i disagree that a loss should be a de-facto 5, given that constraint, and the whole number voting, i can mostly go along with the pelfrey 5.

the fact that 2 consecutive voters gave identical pelfrey 5's to the exclusion of anybody else raised an eyebrow. i was curious.


m.e.t.b.o.t. Prep Ball

m.e.t.b.o.t.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


m.e.t.b.o.t. is struggling with yesterday's game agains the chicago cubs. as m.e.t.b.o.t. was compiling the win probability data for the game, and determining the appropriate distribution of scaheffer votes, m.e.t.b.o.t. noticed that a considerable amount of win percentage added was attributed to metropolitan shortstop jose reyes. moreso than was to be expected given his performance in the game, which was two singles in five at bats, with a run scored and two runners left on base.

m.e.t.b.o.t. investigated the play index, and discovered that for metropolitan shortstop jose reyes's final at bat, the final at bat of the game, in which he hit a single with two outs to advance metropolitan pitcher dillon gee to second base, he was attributed +0.125 WPA, a significant amount. this is due to the fact that this play ended the game. at the time, the metropolitans had an 87.5% chance of winning the game. since after the at bat, the mets were determined to be the winners, the player at bat was awarded the difference.

m.e.t.b.o.t. is stuck with the challenge of determining what to do with those points. based on the WPA tables available on the internet, m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined that the play in question resulted in a +0.009 WPA. m.e.t.b.o.t. considers it appropriate for metropolitan shortstop jose reyes to be awarded his schaefer votes based on this attribution, which leaves +0.116 WPA unattributed.

this is a change from the established algorithms which m.e.t.b.o.t. uses to determine schaeffer points, but should be in line with the existing practice of rewarding defensive players for their noteworthy plays at hte expense of the corresponding pitcher, and excusing pitchers of the responsibility for errors and passed balls commited by defensive players.

the following is the impact of this decision. the column labeled base represents the schaefer votes using the unmodified baseline WPA values, the column labeled mod represents the modified schaefer votes which leaves the remianing +.116 WPA unattributed, and the column labeled delta represents the change in schaefer votes resulting from this decision.

[table:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]player[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]base[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]mod[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]delta[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Reyes[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]1.84[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]-[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1](1.84)[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Thole[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.56[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.68[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.12[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Beltran[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]3.69[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]4.52[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.83[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Murphy[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]2.46[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]3.01[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.55[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Turner[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.66[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.80[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.15[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Pridie[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.13[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.16[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.03[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Tejada[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.67[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.82[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]0.15[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][tr:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]Total[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]10.00[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]10.00[/td:le0j2jf1][td:le0j2jf1]-[/td:le0j2jf1][/tr:le0j2jf1][/table:le0j2jf1]


Guest themetfairy

Guest themetfairy

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Posted
Posted


Two runs in 7 2/3 innings in a game without a lot of Schaefer to distribute will earn a starter a lot of suds.


Guest Edgy DC

Guest Edgy DC

Guests
Posted
Posted


I should have posted this on Wednesday:


The Schaefer Mets Player of the Week for
the week ending May 21, 2011 is Justin
Turner with 11.77 points.

Musta been a runaway.


Gwreck Draft Eligible

Gwreck

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


Ashie62 wrote:
Why does Pelfrey get 5's against the Phils? Is that the bar for a quality start without a win?


I think it depends a lot on how many points a voter is willing to give away in a relatively close loss. I think 5 is a bit too much but it's close.

I figure he earns a minimum of 3 for going into the 8th and givng up only 1 run. Even if he's docked points for the second run (tough call; yes, it was his runner, but it was on first with 2 outs when he left) 2 runs in 8 innings is pretty good. Some bonus consideration is also potentially warranted for degree of difficulty against a tough opponent. Low scoring also merits some additional points as it makes Pelfrey's pitching that muh more crucial to the (potential) outcome of the game.


m.e.t.b.o.t. Prep Ball

m.e.t.b.o.t.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


Ashie62 wrote:
Why does Pelfrey get 5's against the Phils? Is that the bar for a quality start without a win?


m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined that in the 28 may game agains thet philadelphia phillies, metropolitan pitcher mike pelfrey has earned 6.54 schaefer votes through the combined influence of his pitching, his hitting, and the defense performing in his support. since this exceeds the 6 point individual player cap, m.e.t.b.o.t. has decremented his total to match this cap, and redistributed the remaining points as approriate such that metropolitan shortstop jose reyes is awarded 3.01 schaefer votes instead of his prior 2.61, and metropolitan left fielder jason bay is awarded 0.99 schaefer votes instead of his prior 0.85.

per fangraphs, metropolitan pitcher mike pelfrey contributed 0.380 WPA via his pitching, and cost 0.047 WPA via hit hitting. using a prior revision of the schaefer scoring algorithm which m.e.t.b.o.t. uses to find meaning in the actions of 18 men on a quarter-circle parcel of land, this performance would have merited an impressive 7.25 schaefer votes. however some of the efforts of the metropolitan defense contributed to this performance, and er the current algorithm, these contributions to WPA are shared with the defensive players in question.

sepcifically, mlb.com has identified two defensive plays as candidate web gems wherein the WPA is shared between the defensive player and the pitcher. the first is the double play turned by metropolitan shortstop jose reyes in the first inning. this play contributed +0.048 WPA, therefore metropolitan shortstop jose reyes is awarded 0.024 WPA while metropolitan pitcher mike pelfrey is debited the same amount. similarly, the sliding bushel snare performed by metropolitan centerfielder angel pagan in the eight inning, which contributed +0.051 WPA, results in +0.0255 WPA being awarded to metropolitan centerfielder angel pagan at the expense of metropolitan pitcher mike pelfrey.

this reduces the total WPA awarded to metropolitan pitcher mike pelfrey to 0.284, which results in the unadjusted 6.54 schaefer votes.

while metropolitan centerfielder angel pagan had been awarded +0.0255 WPA for his defenisice efforts, he contributed a -0.050 WPA with his bat, and therefore retains a net negative contribution to the outcome of the game, and receives no schaefer votes.


Benjamin Grimm FCL Mets

Benjamin Grimm

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted


Four games will close on Thursday morning: all three games from the weekend series against the Phillies, plus Monday night's game against the Pirates. Please try to get any remaining votes submitted today.

Schaefer POTG 5/27/11 - Phillies 6, Mets 4
Schaefer POTG 5/28/11 - Phillies 5, Mets 2
Schaefer PotG, 5/29/2011, Mets 9, Phillies 5
Schaefer POTG 5/30/11 - Mets 7, Pirates 3

On Friday, last night's game will close and May's Schaefer Players of the Month will be announced. Look for three all-new retro baseball cards along with the announcement.


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