Road to A Championship: the 2011 Phillies

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Here's a place where the more charitable of us can wish our friends to the south the best of luck with their path to a fated, inevitable third championship. I mean, who's beating that ridiculous, entirely-immune-to-injury rotation? Of course, their destiny's having been so patently revealed could bleed the drama from this season, one might reasonably assume. One would be wrong... or at least, lacking a taste for the countless subtleties of how they'll successfully ford all of the obstacles a jealous, alcoholic-children-hating God might place in their path. This is in no way a jinx thread.

After all, you don't make a not-overpriced, not-at-all-thin-in-the-starting-lineup omelette without breaking a few cortisone syringes or hamate bones, right?

[batmagadanleadoff]

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm skeptical of the Phillies also. They only need to look at the Mets for guidance as to going into a season without a real right fielder.

Also, pitching is weird. They will be hard to beat most nights for sure, but they still will need a lot to go right each night including the bullpen, and avoid injuries or it could get ugly.

[Benjamin Grimm]

And Chase Utley can barely walk.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Ibanez is creaky, too, and Rollins has produced less in the last two years than Reyes has. If this is anything more than a little rustiness for Utley, and Rollins breaks down (bodily or production-wise) they may looking at a double order of Replacement Player in the middle, less'n they can find a real supplicant trade partner.

I'm sure it's nothing, though.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The next Phillies' shortstop:

[Guest Edgy DC]

More importantly, their next secondbaseman:

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Delightful. Delicious. Delovely.

Can we get a Blanton for that?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, the first step is showing that he can outplay Wilson Valdez.

[TransMonk]

Utley injury highlights cause for concern in Philadelphia Chase Utley, 32, seems to have aged quickly. He suddenly seems older for an everyday middle infielder with significant injuries to his hand, thumb, hip and right knee over the past four seasons, older for a guy who late last season already looked less fluid trying to play second base. Now, after his knee did not respond to rest -- ominous for an overuse injury to be this troublesome after a winter of rest -- he may need surgery. Guess how many second basemen as old as Utley played 130 games at the position last year. That would be one: Chone Figgins, who was awful (84 OPS+). Welcome to baseball in the Testing Era, where the actuarial tables have been rewritten. Ten years ago, in 2001, before testing, six guys 32 and older played 130 games at second base -- that's four years worth of such players in today's game (2007-10). Utley's ferocious work habits and hard style of play, not to mention plain bad luck, could be catching up to him. And that's the problem with the Phillies, your presumptive 2011 National League champions. They are an older team: Ryan Howard, 31, Utley, 32, Carlos Ruiz, 32, Jimmy Rollins, 32, Placido Polanco, 35, Raul Iba�ez, 38 . . . and now they want to replace Utley with Wilson Valdez, 32, who never batted 350 times in a season? The fallout from signing Cliff Lee is that the Phillies don't have room to add an established player at significant cost. But that may not be a bad thing for Philadelphia. It is better off finding a young, athletic, defensive-minded second baseman to stand in for Utley if he is out for a lengthy spell -- especially with all the money it has invested in pitching. Oh, and about that great starting rotation? Do you expect them to make all of their starts? Lee is 32, Roy Oswalt is 33 and Roy Halladay is 33. It is unusual for three guys on the same team age 32 and older to make at least 32 starts. It's happened only seven times since 1901, only four times without a knuckleball pitcher among the trio, and only once in the past 17 years -- back in 2001 when John Burkett, Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux of the Braves made the 32/32 club without the strain of needing plus-velocity. The Phillies are still a force to be reckoned with in the National League, but the Utley injury brings their worst-case scenario into play. They look like a great team on paper, but because of age, durability is Philadelphia's concern. Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/03/11/utley.pedro.film/index.html#ixzz1GKCiQ37U

[Fman99]

Utley injury highlights cause for concern in Philadelphia Chase Utley, 32, seems to have aged quickly. He suddenly seems older for an everyday middle infielder with significant injuries to his hand, thumb, hip and right knee over the past four seasons, older for a guy who late last season already looked less fluid trying to play second base. Now, after his knee did not respond to rest -- ominous for an overuse injury to be this troublesome after a winter of rest -- he may need surgery. Guess how many second basemen as old as Utley played 130 games at the position last year. That would be one: Chone Figgins, who was awful (84 OPS+). Welcome to baseball in the Testing Era, where the actuarial tables have been rewritten. Ten years ago, in 2001, before testing, six guys 32 and older played 130 games at second base -- that's four years worth of such players in today's game (2007-10). Utley's ferocious work habits and hard style of play, not to mention plain bad luck, could be catching up to him. And that's the problem with the Phillies, your presumptive 2011 National League champions. They are an older team: Ryan Howard, 31, Utley, 32, Carlos Ruiz, 32, Jimmy Rollins, 32, Placido Polanco, 35, Raul Iba�ez, 38 . . . and now they want to replace Utley with Wilson Valdez, 32, who never batted 350 times in a season? The fallout from signing Cliff Lee is that the Phillies don't have room to add an established player at significant cost. But that may not be a bad thing for Philadelphia. It is better off finding a young, athletic, defensive-minded second baseman to stand in for Utley if he is out for a lengthy spell -- especially with all the money it has invested in pitching. Oh, and about that great starting rotation? Do you expect them to make all of their starts? Lee is 32, Roy Oswalt is 33 and Roy Halladay is 33. It is unusual for three guys on the same team age 32 and older to make at least 32 starts. It's happened only seven times since 1901, only four times without a knuckleball pitcher among the trio, and only once in the past 17 years -- back in 2001 when John Burkett, Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux of the Braves made the 32/32 club without the strain of needing plus-velocity. The Phillies are still a force to be reckoned with in the National League, but the Utley injury brings their worst-case scenario into play. They look like a great team on paper, but because of age, durability is Philadelphia's concern. Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/03/11/utley.pedro.film/index.html#ixzz1GKCiQ37U

Yay.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Thank the Philadelphian Goat God that they're so deep in the infield; otherwise, another starter re-injuring a surgically-repaired body part might be some cause for concern.

(Lidge has missed two turns with biceps tendinitis, too.)

[metirish]

Yep , they are an older team , yet I saw that Cliff Lee cited one reason he chose the phillies over the MFY is that they the yankees are an old team.....I guess he didn't look at the phils roster...

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, it might be asking for trouble to say what he actually thinks.

[bmfc1]

Castillo to the Phillies. I couldn't be happier. What great news for the rest of baseball.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/17262/source-castillo-to-phillies

[Guest Edgy DC]

First with that story? Edgy DC two weeks ago.

Minor shame they couldn't have gotten anything for him, though.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

He's totally going to terrorize us.

[Willets Point]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: He's totally going to terrorize us.

He'll bunt us into submission.

[Ceetar]

Willets Point wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: He's totally going to terrorize us. He'll bunt us into submission.

I forsee a lot of "Ryan Howard strikes out, Castillo stranded at second" in the Phillies future.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Is it just me, or was Castillo a terrible pest against us with the Marlins? I seem to recall he was, at least one year.

/Looks it up...

Yup.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Well, his last four years in the NL, yes. But then, he was facing Mets pitching circa 2002-2005.

Overall, his numbers as an opponent are just about his career averages. He's not especially good against the Flushings.

Polanco and Lidge have both been out over a week now.

[smg58]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2011/news/story?id=6246728

To paraphrase a friend of mine, file that one under -- "not our problem!"

[nymr83]

I would just LOVE to see this Phillies team fall apart and not meet any of the lofty expectations. I'd even rather see Atlanta win the division.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Me too.

[Centerfield]

I never realized Charlie Manuel was so racist.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

GOOD LORD! DUCK!

[bmfc1]

From Buster Olney, today:

Every day seems to bring a new concern in the Phillies' camp, and on Thursday, the concerns were for Brad Lidge, who is scheduled to pitch today for the first time since March 11. Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel essentially said that the results for Lidge will tell the team a lot about his progress. Chase Utley is headed to the DL, as expected, and Placido Polanco is being activated. Reporters covering the team tweeted on Thursday that Utley will address his medical situation one more time before camp breaks. Luis Castillo has not wowed the Phillies yet.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'll snicker at Utley when Beltran takes the field.

[Willets Point]

NL East 2011: The Battle of Who Could Suck Less

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: I'll snicker at Utley when Beltran takes the field.

Well, Beltran is doing things that would make Utley cry out in pain if he tried and is actually on a plan and course to be ready. But I agree, besides not drafting him in fantasy leagues, I'll save snickering at Utley for game 4 when Reyes lashes one past Castillo at second.