Expectations of Eleven: Jos� Reyes

[Edgy MD]

Jos� Bernabe Reyes.



Pos: SS; BS-TR.

Born: June 11, 1983 in Villa Gonzalez, Dominican Republic. (He'll be 28 in 2011.)

Birth Context Karma: The 1983 Mets, one week into the interim skipperhood of Frank Howard, started the day in the wee hours completing a marathon 17-inning walkoff win over the Expos on a ball Dave Kingman hit "to Connecticut." (Within weeks Keith Hernandez would be a Met and Dave Kingman would be packing his bags.) Later that evening, Scott Holman took the loss in some 5-2 Expo payback. Ex-Met Jeff Reardon, coming off two innings in the extra-inning game the night before, threw three shutout innings for the save.

Acquired: Signed by the Mets as a foreign amateur free agent August 16, 1999.

Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	BB-REF WAR	FG WAR	Pos	Awards
St.�Lucie	FLOR (A+)	1	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000		0	0	0	0	0	0
NYM	NL	133	603	563	83	159	29	10	11	54	30	10	31	63	.282	.321	.428	.749	103	241	8	2	4	3	4	2.2 (2.5 off)	2.8	ss	AS
Total	All	134	607	567	83	159	29	10	11	55	30	10	31	63	.280	.313	.425	.738		241	8	2	4	3	4

Number: 7

Wife: Katherine Ramierez

Nickname: "Tongue."

Namesakes:


Best Day in 2010: A lot of people peaked in the Philadelphia sweep, but none like Reyes:
Game One.
Game Two.
Game Three.

Last Word: Jos� is coming to camp with no contract beyond this year. Maybe they sign him to an extension before the season. Maybe they have no idea what the budget is for 2012. Very cloudy.

What do you expect of Jos� Reyes in 2011?

[batmagadanleadoff]

If injuries don't bog him down, I expect Reyes to have his best year ever.

[Fman99]

.315 BA, 15 HRs, 60 RBIs, 110 runs, 45 SB, plays silly-good defense and earns himself a big fat contract.

[metirish]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: If injuries don't bog him down, I expect Reyes to have his best year ever.

I would hope this is true but I thin we have seen the best of him.



.282 9 home runs , 48 rbi , 90 runs scored , 22 SB, caught stealing 12 times ,

he will end up staying with the Mets on a one year deal

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: If injuries don't bog him down, I expect Reyes to have his best year ever.

That's a pretty big if and a pretty big year you're talking about.

I'm optimistic he'll have a good year and pessimistic that he'll stick around following it.

[G-Fafif]

His best year since 2008.

[Edgy MD]

I think he'll have a great year in terms of extra base hits, and he'll get 50-55 steals, but his decline in walk rate last year was disappointing and I don't expect that to rebound. Neither do I expect his fielding to come back much.

[Ceetar]

.299, 15 HR, 15 Triples, 45 SB, .350 OBP,12 whiny comments from opposing players, 5 WAR, 1 MVP, and a partridge in a pear tree.

[smg58]

Another OK year like last year.

[Guest El Segundo Escupidor]

.315 BA, 15 HRs, 60 RBIs, 110 runs, 45 SB, plays silly-good defense and earns himself a big fat contract.

I don't foresee Reyes getting the sums of money thrown around in the media and blogsphere. I base this on the following:

1. History of injuries -- should preclude him from getting more than 7 years (and years 33-35 are not gonna be pretty)
2. Potential suitors -- The Jints and who else? Maybe Boston, if Lowrie fizzles out. But neither of these teams have idiots for GMs (Zito was an act of desperation, not idiocy). Unless a team wants to make a Jayson Werth-like "statement", but Reyes would be the wrong type of player for that.
3.2 SS FA market - Reyes may be the best of the bunch but there are some serviceable alternatives - Hardy, Furcal, Betancourt.
4. Tulowitzki benchmark -- makes it difficult for Reyes to make a case for more than $15M/year.
5. Career OPS+101 -- This is passable now, but when he loses a yard or two in pace, you'll be paying for an average hitter with good defensive skills.

7y/$90M is par, in my book.

[Edgy MD]

The Second Spitter wrote: 4. Tulowitzki benchmark -- makes it difficult for Reyes to make a case for more than $15M/year.

What about the Jeter benchmark? If I'm his agent, I cite that, if only to move the needle.

[TransMonk]

I expect about the same output as last season...and that he will be traded.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm optimistic he'll have a good year and pessimistic that he'll stick around following it.

Yup. If Flores continues to look half-decent at SS, they'll check the trade market. They'll find it wanting, and he'll move on at year's end.

In the meantime... with a mild rebound in walk rate-- his walk rate WAS 10+ in 2009, after all-- he'll go something like:

152 G
705 PA
13 HR
74 RBI
109 R
65 XBH
.289/.344/.451
.348 wOBA
56 SB
13 CS

The Second Spitter wrote: 7y/$90M is par, in my book.

NOBODY is giving him seven years. I would stake a kidney on it.

[Frayed Knot]

Whatever happens with Reyes will have nothing to do with Flores. He won't even turn 20 until August; should probably spend most if not all of the year in A ball; and NO ONE thinks he'll be able to stick at SS for very much longer and certainly not in the majors.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

In-system and on the FA market, short-term replacement options for Reyes abound. (Mostly inferior ones, granted, but still... there are adequate ones out there and-- if you believe in someone like Justin Turner for 1-2 years-- in-house.) Long-term replacements? Not so much-- there's a reason even a semi-durable, semi-operable Reyes is a well-above-average MLB SS.

By a couple of different reports, Flores' lateral movement improved markedly last year; guys like Keith Law notwithstanding, a good number of the "he has no chance to stay at SS" scouting reports have become "he will likely move"-- a subtle but significant distinction. He put up a solid .730 OPS in the pitching-rich Sally last year, and he's likely heading for AA after camp breaks. If the improvement continues, he may indeed be a future possibility at SS, or a trade chip in getting a premium version of same (or a potential replacement for David Wright, depending on where the franchise is at that point); it'll most definitely be a factor (if not necessarily the biggest one) in whether they push aggressively to sign Reyes, push to move him, or hover somewhere in between.

[seawolf17]

Nobody's fucking trading Jose Reyes, okay? They're signing him long term, and that is that.

[Ceetar]

seawolf17 wrote: Nobody's fucking trading Jose Reyes, okay? They're signing him long term, and that is that.

I'm onboard.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

As are the overwhelming majority of us.

I just don't think it'll actually happen. (See also: "Creative Frankie-Rod Usage, So As To Avoid Contract Vesting.")

[Benjamin Grimm]

Edgy DC wrote: What about the Jeter benchmark? If I'm his agent, I cite that, if only to move the needle.

In this crazy world of ours, comparing your player to Jeter takes as much audacity as comparing him to Jesus. (Christ, not Alou.) In response the Mets can cough up platitudes about five rings and clutch and all the other gag inducing crap we've been hearing for years.



Anyway....

My pick for Reyes in Eleven: 145 games, 95 runs, 10 homers, 11 triples, 35 steals, .280. The Mets won't trade him at the deadline, although they won't be close enough to first place (or the wild card) to really justify keeping him. He'll end up on the free agent market, and it's about 50-50 whether he comes back to the Mets.

[Vic Sage]

.280 / 10hr / 30sb - less defensive range, but still ok.
Wilpons won't spend the money to re-sign him.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I just don't think he'll be so spectacular going forward that the Mets would be wise to outbid the field for him, especially given his past [crossout:3k6akhpn]juicing[/crossout:3k6akhpn] injury troubles.

[Guest GYC]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm optimistic he'll have a good year and pessimistic that he'll stick around following it.

This.

sigh.

[nymr83]

I expect an injury. Barring that he has a career-average year at the plate, but with lots of steal attempts (its a contract year and he has 29 other GMs to show he can still do it)

[Guest El Segundo Escupidor]

wrong thread

[Guest El Segundo Escupidor]

Ceetar wrote: seawolf17 wrote: Nobody's fucking trading Jose Reyes, okay? They're signing him long term, and that is that. I'm onboard.

I could see Reyes going out as a rental and then returning as a FA.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Edgy DC wrote: What about the Jeter benchmark? If I'm his agent, I cite that, if only to move the needle. In this crazy world of ours, comparing your player to Jeter takes as much audacity as comparing him to Jesus. (Christ, not Alou.) In response the Mets can cough up platitudes about five rings and clutch and all the other gag inducing crap we've been hearing for years.

Jeter gets paid for his rare intangibles that have SABR so flummoxed they have yet to developed a statistic to measure them.

[Edgy MD]

Well, then, I'd argue that if Jeter has 100% Jeterness, and that's the extra he's being paid for, Reyes has 80% Jeterness.

And then Mets would say, "What?! Are you serious?!! He's got, like, 20% Jeterness."

After a lot of vicious back-and-forth, we'd settle somewhere in the middle on his Jeterness, but each bit we agree on would have moved the needle north of where it would have been without the Jeter precedent.

[Ceetar]

The Second Spitter wrote: Jeter gets paid for his rare intangibles that have SABR so flummoxed they have yet to developed a statistic to measure them.

Suzyn Waldman yesterday blamed A-Rod for Jeter's defensive woes last season. Cause A-Rod's hip hurt so Jeter was covering his ground too!

[ashie62]

Somewhat better than last year.

The Wilpons will not spend the money on him. Jose traded late July.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Reports coming out today indicate that the Mets will be willing to negotiate with Jose during the season. Not clear if Reyes feels the same way.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Reports coming out today indicate that the Mets will be willing to negotiate with Jose during the season. Not clear if Reyes feels the same way.

old news.

Reyes has said he doesn't want to negotiate during the season. (but not that he wouldn't)