The Beltran Situation: What Next?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

OK, sounds to me as if the Mets are:
1) Disappointed about not having had their opportunity to review Steadman's diagnosis and recommendation

2) Disappointed that Beltran is hurt again

3) Mad about the potential implications of both, the first being a kind of crime against the team, the second being the prospect of missing their best player for an unknown period.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to do something to goose the offense that they might not have considered earlier. You can tell they don't want to go through another year of uncertainty.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The "wait for guys to get healthy" plan was a dismal failure last year, because the guys never did get healthy. If they could be sure that Beltran would be back and healthy by around May 1, I could see them hanging in there with Pagan. But after last year, we know that there's no way to be sure about that at all, and that it's entirely possible that Carlos will be out until June, or July, or August, or September...

So yes, I think they'll make a move and bring in an outfielder. Beltran's disappearing takes away more than they got from the addition of Bay.

I have no idea what that move might be, however. I suspect they'll be more likely to sign Delgado now, just to have another potential source for power.

[metirish]

Just from reading your pbp it seems like the Mets got the PR aspect right on this so far, they seemed restrained with their words and having Howard and Rico take the lead helps. That's a plus I think.

I think this blows over and the Mets will add a bat to complement Pagan out there, Edgy mentioned Winn , someone like him .

[Guest Edgy DC]

I didn't mention Winn. Though I think winning is a good strategy.

I get the impression Operation Slow Hacky Catcher is on hold.

[ashie62]

I don't have great faith in microfracture surgery

Get Jacoby Ellsbury from the Red Sox. He won't come cheap.

[Guest attgig]

we have too much money tied up in beltran to try to find a suitalbe CF replacement. Pagan (or maybe fmart) can fill in for him if the return is May-ish.
I say, improve the rest of the team as much as you can.

find better offense where you can, or find better pitching where you can.
Monitor Sheets workout. check over his medicals. If things look good, give him a contract to be #2, instead of trying to get a cheap contract with piniero or garland.

And/Or, look for a better option in RF or 1b. perhaps try to open up a trading market. how much would adrian gonzalez cost? is there a possibility of the nats trading dunn or rays consider trading pena? (both 1 year left in their respective deals). Colorado has a bunch of OF'ers, maybe Hawpe could be tradable for them.
There needs to be rocks turned over that may not have been turning before.

my $.02

[Ceetar]

I hope not Delgado, that seems a bad idea. But I guess if he can be healthy in April and May that's what you're looking for in this case. But Delgado looks like his best months won't beu ntil summer as he'll be slow to recover from the hip stuff and wait for warm weather.


I'm thinking..Sheets. He's the best talent pitcher out there. It doesn't haev to be an offensive answer, as they still havea good one, and better pitching will win games that Beltran might've via offense. If Sheets does go down, Beltran will likely be back by the, and maybe Niese or one of our other three pitchers have stepped up that we don't miss him much.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Improving in rightfield seems to be the way to go to me. They're already crossing their fingers there.

[Centerfield]

If I were the Mets, I'd talk to Steadman. If he tells me that Beltran's knee has been scoped, he is not a candidate for micro-fracture surgery, and that he should be at full-speed in May (or at the latest June), then I make do with what we have.

If there is a chance he can be out longer, I look to upgrade. We have Pagan who does fine in CF. So I think they should be more focused on finding a middle of the order hitter than they are at finding a centerfielder.

I thought the Mets should be looking to upgrade RF regardless of Beltran's knee.

[metsmarathon]

the most intriguing name still out there on the fa market is rick ankiel.

he has the ability to play cf full time, and at a minimum can share that time with pagan, and also has the ability to mimimize the risk posed by jeff francoeur returning to what he'd been with the braves of late. he'd provide us with the most depth and the most upside this side of a healthy carlos delgado.

i'd love to see the mets take this as a cue to give up on pursuing bengie molina, but i'm afraid that they'd see this as creating the imperative to lock down the catcher spot so they can then better focus on the beltran situation.

in my head, the mets should go out and bring in rick ankiel, carlos delgado, and ben sheets, and call it an offseason. ok, ok, i'd accept joel piniero instead of sheets, i guess... that would give them about as much flexibility and redundancy as i figure they might need.

[Frayed Knot]

Ashie62 wrote: I don't have great faith in microfracture surgery

Then don't have it.

Get Jacoby Ellsbury from the Red Sox. He won't come cheap.

Oh, OK.

[ashie62]

Frayed Knot wrote: Ashie62 wrote: I don't have great faith in microfracture surgery

Then don't have it.

I don't want Beltran to have it snarky one

[smg58]

Don't panic. The Mets have somebody on the team who posted an .837 OPS last year while providing average centerfield defense, neither of which was done by Jacoby Ellsbury last year. The worst thing we could do is badly overpay for somebody who may be a lot less of an upgrade over what we currently have than he looks at face value.

There are bargains to be had. A Russ Branyan/Ryan Garko platoon at first would really fill the power void, and would probably cost us $5M total or less. Randy Winn, if he's over whatever impeded his ability to swing righthanded last year, could be quality outfield depth at a dirt cheap price. Maybe a pitching upgrade would come more cheaply than an established centerfielder. There are means of improving the team out there that would neither break the bank nor cost us players we'd miss.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yes, of course. But now the demand has somehow shifted to an insistance that the Mets overpay for mediocrity.

[Ceetar]

It seems like they already have talked to the doc, I assume that's where the 12 weeks +/-4 weeks is coming from. This seems like it's reasonably late April/Early May which isn't the end of the world. I mean, these things could of course take longer. No one really knows until he's healed and getting back into baseball shape. Late March maybe before we have a real prognosis and target date.

I don't think I like Ankiel as a steady enough guy. I'm comfortable with Pagan, who has actually played very well, even some pop, here. He had a fast start in 2008, maybe he will again.

I wish they'd upgrade RF, just to be sure, but I don't think they are. At least the 3-year Francoeur extension that was floated around (by Heyman I think?) at the end of the season didn't come to be. I suspect the Mets don't want to sign another OF and completely block Fernando Martinez, figuring Francoeur can be a satisfactory run producer batting 6th, and maybe Martinez shows up late in the season after lighting up the minors and provides a spark. I wouldn't even rule out him having a fiery spring and getting the nod in April if things shake out that way, but that's a big if right now.

I think pitching is the way to go. They have to do that anyway, so maybe take on one of the more risky type Sheets guy if it's not completely absurdly priced. i.e. Reduce the need for Beltran's bat by letting up less runs.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Francoeur for three moeur?

Thank heavens that nonsense didn't get bandied about here.

[nymr83]

Given Martinez's still very young age I wouldn't mind at all if they 'blocked' him for 2010 by acquiring someone decent (I hear the Nationals just signed a decent outfielder for only 1 year at a bargain price, who was it again?...)

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Em... Ankiel's coming off one shitty year. Apart from running into that fence in May and a couple of nagging injuries... what the hell?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I think the Mets should go get as much pitching as they can regardless, but it won't help us score runs every night. I think we gotta go find some offense, ideally at second base. And as long as he's not attracting any love I'd certainly look at Ankeil, tho I've always thought him to be a filthy fucked up juicer like the rest of the Cardinals.

[nymr83]

I think we gotta go find some offense, ideally at second base

Orlando Hudson? his offense is marginally better than what Castillo did last year, but i think he's much more likely to repeat it than Castillo. the defense is probably miles ahead.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Ankiel, Baldelli, Endy. I could go for 2-of-3; nice band-aid while Voltron is out, beautiful depth when Voltron makes his triumphant return in May... to RF or 1B.

Hudson would be helpful, too. Between the two positions, Ankiel and Hudson, say, get us back a good amount of the missing Beltroduction.

Or-- ooh-- Lopez? Flippy Lopez?

[nymr83]

No Thanks on Ankiel, his numbers last year sucked and we know he was juicing in the past, what if this is what he can do now that he's off the juice?

[Fman99]

Time to hit the ol' bargain bin, get someone who will play for peanuts (and then guarantee them 2-3 mil, Cora-style, as the Mets always stupidly do). A stopgap that they can cut or keep around.

Winn
Ankiel
Baldelli

Or let Pagan play, he's an April all star. Or even give F-Mart another extended look.

It seems much more likely now that the Mets bring Delgado back to hope to regain some power numbers in Moletran's absence.

[Theoldmole]

Moletran?

[MFS62]

Nymr83 wrote: No Thanks on Ankiel, his numbers last year sucked and we know he was juicing in the past, what if this is what he can do now that he's off the juice?

IIRC his numbers "sucked" because he ran into an outfield wall last year, was out about three weeks, and never fully recovered from the concussion when he returned. (see: Church, Ryan)

If he is recovered, he would make a nice pickup. And, after those numbers last year and recent signing amounts, I don't he'd cost a heckuva' lot.

Later

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Guess who his agent is

[Guest attgig]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Guess who his agent is

just cus he has a superagent doesn't mean he's automatically entitled to millions. the biggest impediment is that he won't be guaranteed a starting job, which was a roadblock with the pirates. he wants a 1 year contract to show himself off, and he can't do that sitting on a bench. problem is, a month of starting may be his best opportunity vs other clubs out there (i think royals may be the only one that MAY have an opening).

The other issue in my mind is is ankiel really better than pagan?
I don't see it. give pagan a shot, and improve everything else.

[metirish]

Boras of course.....

There was a NY kneee specialist quoted in the Snooze today as saying that the surgery might not even fix what's wrong with Beltran....


Here , I found it in the online edition

RESULTS MAY VARY: Even if Beltran is ready for baseball activities in 12 weeks after knee surgery, the Mets have no guarantees that he will be the same player, a fleet, power-hitting outfielder who is among baseball's elite. "It's conceivable that surgery doesn't help," said Dr. Ronald Grelsamer, a knee surgeon in the department of orthopaedic surgery at Mount Sinai. Grelsamer has not examined Beltran. The surgery, according to the Mets, cleaned out the arthritic area of Beltran's right knee. Arthritis, Dr. Grelsamer said, has a "variable effect" on patients. "Some patients have very bad arthritis but can do more than some who have very little and are hobbling," Grelsamer said. "You can't extrapolate from one to another how it is going to affect you - two with the same amount of arthritis can have differing amounts of pain." Initially, Grelsamer said, he was surprised when he read the projection that Beltran would not be back to baseball activities for three months. Generally, he said, projections for professional athletes returning from arthroscopic surgery can be as quick as 3-4 weeks. An arthroscopy, he said, is "essentially performing a manicure - washing out, cleaning out, trimming, taking out stuff that could be irritating." Boras, Beltran's agent, said in a telephone interview Thursday that Beltran's doctor found "20-30 fragments of cartilage in the knee. It was a very successful surgery and we expect Carlos to return to play and not have any problems."

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't think there was ever any thought of a guarantee that he'd be fixed --- just a better chance that he'd be better.

[Benjamin Grimm]

On Mets Hot Stove Report, Kevin Burkhart asked Howard Johnson how long it would take Beltran to get ready to return to the big leagues once he's ready to "begin baseball activities."

I was curious about this myself, but HoJo didn't give any kind of a firm answer. It will take "a period of time." "Assuming there are no setbacks" he'll need to get "some at bats in the minors."

Some sportswriters are saying that Beltran will be back in mid-May "at the earliest" but that's rather pessimistic optimism. I would think "the earliest" would have the 12 weeks ending April 5, and then about two weeks of extended spring training, including a few games at Buffalo, and he could be playing by the last week of April.

I'm not saying this is the most likely thing, but I think it's more accurate to say that the best-case is April 26 instead of May 15. (Not that the 19 days difference will probably mean a whole lot in the long run.)

I know that position players always think that spring training is too long, so I don't imagine that Beltran, if healthy, will need a full six weeks to get ready to join the Mets.