2009 Mets Thoughts

[Guest mario25]

I know the Mets just lost but I was thinking about some moves the Mets could make if WE were the GM. I was thinking if I was Omar I would look at Ohman, Torres and Wood for the bullpen, Carl Crawford for LF and Orlando Hudson at 2b and Furcal as a back up plan at 2b if he would be willing to switch positions. I would tell Heilman goodbye along with Ayala, Schoenweis, Pedro, and alot of other pitchers. Perez is to up and down and I think the Mets need a starter. I would like Burnett but I know it is to expensive. I know it is just me babbling on.

[metsmarathon]

i'm not quite ready to think about next year, until i've had some perspective set in.

we have enough second basemen.

[DocTee]

Perez can go-- too much angst, not enough performance. if he stays (cheaply) fine, but if we go in to next season DEPENDING on him we are in for some serious heartburn.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

marathon - "we have enough second basemen."

True, buit we need one that's actually good.

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

I think a big chunk of the bullpen has to go just because the team has to make big changes there because of the stigma of this mess.

I think they have another year of Schoenweis, but I don't know if they're willing to eat that contract. He's been horrid two years in a row.

I don't know what is the contract status of Heilman. Supposedly he's pitched all year in pain.

Sanchez should go. He appears to be a shadow of his former self.

Obviously they need a closer.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

metsguyinmichigan wrote: I don't know what is the contract status of Heilman. Supposedly he's pitched all year in pain.

Funny thought, bear with me. This situation reminds me a lot of Braden Looper, as far as being maligned here and supposedly pitching hurt. I say we keep him here on one condition: that he's here as a starter.

Honestly, why the hell not? Ever since the Molina Incident, he's been all out of sorts in the bullpen, and I don't see any way he gets back on the rails in a Mets uniform. But he's still got stuff.

I don't know if he's eligible for the minors still, but if he is, why not let him take the offseason to get healthy, then start him in Buffalo and let him stretch it out. He's a fastball-changeup pitcher, which can work for a decent starting pitcher if he can mix in a third pitch effectively. He never seems to have consistency with the slider and splitter. Make him work on one of them. See how he handles going through the lineup a second time.

If he can't cut it, then I suppose we cut ties. But there's no sense in not trying, because the situation is stagnant right now.

[nymr83]

]He's been horrid two years in a row.

he's fine as a STRICTLY L/L matchup guy, the problem is the Mets a) paid him like a setup man not a situational reliever and already have Feliciano for that role.

Theres no room on the 25-man roster bullpen for Schoenweis and Feliciano.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

I don't want them to sign a closer because he's a closer. Assemble talented pitchers. Maybe let one of the young guys take over, early in the season. Let 'em gain some confidence. You can make a closer.

Love the talent, love the results. Don't fall in love with the title.

[Guest AG/DC]

Heilman's ineligible for the minors. Also, his problems did not start with Molina.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

AG/DC wrote: Heilman's ineligible for the minors. Also, his problems did not start with Molina.

Well, so was Looper, so I guess he'd have to adjust on the fly.

You're spot on correct about the Molina thing, that was more of picking a point of perception on my part and it was lazy. He was actually better by basically every peripheral in '07 than '06, except home runs. Which would make you think he's giving up more fly balls, but his GB/FB rate was actually worse in 2007 than in '06 or '08. He has, however, given up more line drives each progressive season, meaning...what? Is his stuff not as good? Was his low BABIP from last year more a product of luck than pitching, and that a trend of more hard hit balls has caught up with him? Fuck if I know.

Relief pitchers fluctuate. Maybe he'll be lights out again next year. It just feels like a really toxic situation right now, and I'm sick of watching them sit around with their thumbs up their asses.

[smg58]

I think Murph is our left fielder for some time to come. I'm not worried there.

Second base is a sore spot. I have no idea what other teams think Castillo is worth, but I'd move him if I can. Hudson is an obvious person to look at, but if Mark Ellis gets through his recent shoulder surgery in good order he could have good sleeper value.

Derek Lowe is not young by any stretch, but he's more consistent than Ollie and more durable than either Burnett or Sheets. He's likely to be the best value of the free agent starters. I'd make an offer to Sabathia, although he's been worked so hard the last two seasons I'd be a little nervous given the contract he's likely to get.

The Blue Jays were rumored to be entertaining offers for Roy Halladay at the deadline. If that's true, and they're willing to entertain offers for him again in the offseason, you have to ask what it would take.

I'd also look for a decent one-year option for fifth starter. Niese is where Pelfrey was two years ago, and I don't agree with repeating a mistake and putting him in the rotation a year early.

I'd like to see Niese, F-Mart, Kunz, and Nick Evans (at first base!) get a full season of AAA, with no pressure on them to help the Mets win next year. If that leaves no room for Mike Carp, then see what kind of reliever you can get for him.

Signing a closer is a must. It will take more than one acquisition to make the pen playoff-caliber, but you might as well start at the top. All the focus will be on K-Rod, but he might be a bit overrated at this point while Fuentes is underrated.

Feliciano and Schoeneweis can't both come back.

I'm not for non-tendering Sanchez or Heilman. I'm not necessarily for keeping both (or either), but they both have enough upside that simply dropping them would not be prudent.

The only guy from this year's pen that I'd pencil in for sure for next year is Joe Smith. He needs an out pitch against lefties, but for somebody who's barely been in pro ball for two years he's doing all right.

[Benjamin Grimm]

smg58 wrote: The only guy from this year's pen that I'd pencil in for sure for next year is Joe Smith.

I've been thinking the same thing. I also think that Stokes is worth considering bringing back. And of course, it's too early to know anything for sure about Kunz and Parnell, but they may both end up starting the season in Buffalo.

[metirish]

I'd take that look at Lowe too , pitches plenty of innings . Heilman needs to go , if ever a guy needed a change it's him. Getting booed on the road just sucks.

[Gwreck]

The Mets need at least one, if not two starting pitchers next year.

I'd like them to get at least one from this list, which is probably the top 10 FA starters out there this year:

C.C. Sabathia MIL
A.J. Burnett TOR (assumign he opts out)
Ryan Dempster CHC
Jon Garland LAA
Ben Sheets MIL
Oliver Perez NYM
Derek Lowe LAD
Braden Looper STL
Jamie Moyer PHI
Randy Wolf HOU

[Guest Iubitul]

I agree with marathon - I'm not ready to think about next year yet, even though I did figure out the number of days until pitchers and catchers last night...

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm prepared to say good-bye to Oliver Perez. He's going to command more money than he's worth and if they're going to overpay somebody, they might as well overpay a better pitcher than Oliver Perez.

Adam Rubin says in the Daily News today that the Mets aren't freeing up much salary this off-season. He then seems to contradict himself, listing players like Alou, Pedro, Perez and a few others who add up to $31.5 million. He notes that $5.5 million of that will be eaten up by raises to Wright, Reyes, and Santana. But that leaves $26 million. I don't know if he factored Delgado into his math, but if they really have $26 million freed up, they can get a pretty good pitcher and have money left over. (Sabathia would probably use up about 80% of that money, though.)

I'm also wondering if the Wilpons will be tempted to expand their budget after two years in a row with near misses.

[Guest themetfairy]

I agree with marathon and Iubitul - let's wait for the body of 2008 to get cold before thinking about its replacement.

[Gwreck]

Payroll in 2008 was $137.8 million.

Next year's payroll stands at $94 million for the following players:

Santana
Pelfrey
Wagner
Schoeneweis
Schneider
Castro
Delgado
Castillo
Wright
Reyes
Beltran
Chavez
Anderson

You can figure another ~$7-10 million will go to the players who are still under the Mets control, whether through renewal, arbitration, or contract to avoid arbtration:

Maine
Niese
Feliciano
Heilman
Sanchez
Smith
Church
Murphy

That would put us at $100-$105 million.
If they keep the budget they have this year, that's $27 million dollars to find 1-2 starters, a reliever, and left fielder. Plus a backup infelder, perhaps.

[Benjamin Grimm]

themetfairy wrote: I agree with marathon and Iubitul - let's wait for the body of 2008 to get cold before thinking about its replacement.

Nah, I'd rather look ahead, not back.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Rubin the Snooze today suggests that 27 mills might be a generous figure and that this year's budget was based on receiving po$t$ea$on revenue as well.

[Guest AG/DC]

Gwreck is the Doug Pappas of the Crane Pool.

[Guest themetfairy]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: ="themetfairy"]I agree with marathon and Iubitul - let's wait for the body of 2008 to get cold before thinking about its replacement. Nah, I'd rather look ahead, not back.

I'd rather avoid looking. Just for the next few days.

Carry on, gentlemen.

[Centerfield]

Gwreck wrote: Payroll in 2008 was $137.8 million. Next year's payroll stands at $94 million for the following players: Santana Pelfrey Wagner Schoeneweis Schneider Castro Delgado Castillo Wright Reyes Beltran Chavez Anderson You can figure another ~$7-10 million will go to the players who are still under the Mets control, whether through renewal, arbitration, or contract to avoid arbtration: Maine Niese Feliciano Heilman Sanchez Smith Church Murphy That would put us at $100-$105 million. If they keep the budget they have this year, that's $27 million dollars to find 1-2 starters, a reliever, and left fielder. Plus a backup infelder, perhaps.

I would hope that next year's budget would go beyond that, new stadium and all.

[soupcan]

I realize its sportstalk radio and that the host's job is to be controversial and generate phone calls but it was a bit over the top yesterday.

Francesa was definitively stating several things:

-There are only three 'untouchables' on the Mets - Santana, Beltran and Pelfrey.

-That Wright and Reyes are 'non-clutch' performers who should be traded while their value is high.

-That if the Mets switch managers they can keep the core but if they bring Manuel back they must 'explode the core'.

Again - I get the whole 'I'm going to be controversial and say outlandish things to stir up the pot' but to say that to get better this team should trade the two best position players it has ever developed?

A guy that's 25 years old and has driven in 100 runs in each of his last 4 seasons?

A guy that is one of the most dangerous and exciting players in the game?

I just don't understand that thinking. Sure you want people to call in to the show and debate with you but doesn't a host worry about his credibility? I guess not.

[Centerfield]

Mike Francesa and all the other Yankee fans would want nothing more than the Mets to trade Reyes and Wright. Or to at least label them "non-clutch".

[Gwreck]

I turned on WFAN on the way to the game on Sunday.

Francesa is talking about Oliver Perez, and that Perez has seemed to pitch well in "big" games in the past, and lists the games against the Yankees and in the playoffs in '06 as examples.

He then goes on to say that Perez is "making the most important start of his career" that day.

That's when I turn him off. You can't talk sense to imbeciles.

[Guest AG/DC]

Dramatic moves drive up ratings. Rumors of dramatic moves drive up ratings. They also make your job easier.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Francesa worrying about his credibility would be like Gary Cohen worrying about his hair.

[soupcan]

I get all of that. I'm just amazed that a guy who is advertises himself as a knowledgable voice of reason would make such ridiculous pronouncements.

Trade Wright and/or Reyes to get better??

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

soupcan wrote: -That Wright and Reyes are 'non-clutch' performers who should be traded while their value is high.

Francessa has said this before- he's in a hee-yuge rush to get Reyes out of town, and isn't shy about saying so at any opportunity. This opinion is, of course, absolutely indefensible, as there may not be a single player in the majors who would bring back equal value to Reyes (Pujols, Utley and Sizemore play lower-skill defensive positions, Ramirez may need to be moved off shortstop in the near future, A-Rod's 7 years older than Reyes, and no pitcher is as valuable as an everyday player. Only Mauer and McCann offer similar value to Reyes, and I think a move for either of those players for Reyes would leave just as big a hole as it fills)

I don't know why I ever turn on that station, besides to listen to the games. I guess I just get bored in the car from time to time. May I suggest listening to the Diane Rehm Show, the Leonard Lopate Show or Dennis Elsas during weekday afternoons? I feel I'm always a happier, smarter person when I remember to do that.