Hall of Fame Voting: This Year, Next Year, and Beyond

[Valadius]

I wasn't around when we had our most recent Hall of Fame induction, but now that I am back again, I wish to comment on the state of our Hall of Fame voting.

Two legends were inducted this year, both on the field and off it. Ripken and Gwynn were both incredible ballplayers, and seriously, who didn't like them?

But is the Hall of Fame reserved only for the squeaky-clean? Have we pushed the pedestal too high?

I say yes, emphatically yes. Since when did a baseball player have to be well-liked in order to merit induction into the Hall of Fame? When did we stop treating baseball players like human beings, with faults and weaknesses and personal demons, and start looking at them as more than human, and let their human errors that we all have become a reason to banish them from baseball's Valhalla?

I refer, of course, to the debate primarily surrounding Barry Bonds at this moment. Does he belong in the Hall of Fame or doesn't he? Of COURSE he does!!! Good lord, look at the bigger picture here! Lifetime average near .300, nearing 3,000 hits. Now up to 757 homers, some of which are tainted, but even without steroids I doubt he would have ended up with less than 600. The best eye of any ballplayer I've ever seen. Over 500 stolen bases. Nearing 2,000 RBI. Has a chance at breaking Rickey Henderson's all-time runs scored mark, when no one thought Ty Cobb's previous mark could be broken. Seven MVPs, eight Gold Gloves, twelve Silver Sluggers. Before he started juicing, when other players had the limelight, he was named the best player of the 90's. For him to be excluded from the Hall of Fame would be a travesty, as much as I don't like the guy.

When all three retired in the same year, the media and the country touted the three legends who were sure to be inducted in 2007: Ripken, Gwynn, and McGwire. Then McGwire's non-answer in front of Congress got everybody screaming at him. As a result, he appeared on less than a quarter of ballots this year. I, for one, believe he should be in the Hall of Fame. Certain numbers have a bit of magic to them, and I think we should keep the number 500 as a sacred milestone. Maybe he cheated, who knows? But one writer (I forget who) summed up how I'm going to judge the Steroid Era:

"Hundreds of players probably used steroids. But did they all do what Barry Bonds did?"

Indeed, even though many players cheated, they didn't all put up the numbers that the select few did. And I am of the opinion that the best players of that era would have been the best players even if no one was doing steroids. Therefore, it's simply insane to exclude somebody from the Hall of Fame just because somebody accused them of doing steroids. Have we excluded everybody that threw spitballs? Or used amphetamines? Or used excessive pine tar? Or used nail files on baseballs? No, we haven't. The only excuse for exclusion from the Hall of Fame has been gambling. Even Jose Canseco, blowhard that he is, is in my mind a borderline Hall of Famer.

Next year, the ballot will include only one newcomer who belongs in the Hall of Fame: Tim Raines. One of only four players in history with 800 or more steals (the others being Henderson, Brock, and Cobb), Raines had a .294 lifetime average with 2,605 hits.

Here's who I'd like to see elected next year:
Tim Raines
Goose Gossage
Mark McGwire
Jim Rice
Andre Dawson
Bert Blyleven
Harold Baines
Jack Morris

In 2009:
Rickey Henderson
Mark Grace

In 2010:
Roberto Alomar
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez

In 2011:
Jeff Bagwell
Juan Gonzalez
Rafael Palmeiro
Larry Walker

In 2012:
Craig Biggio

[seawolf17]

Hey Val. Long time no post. Eight guys in one year? Zero chance. We're going to be lucky to see two. Baines isn't even getting close, and neither is Raines or McGwire. Blyleven and Rice are closest, I'd think.

[DocTee]

Harold Baines and Hall of Fame do not belong together.

[Valadius]

Well those guys are everyone remaining on the ballot that I think merit inclusion.

Harold Baines had probably the quietest career of any great player I've ever seen. He has the most base hits (2,866) and RBIs (1,628) of any player currently eligible for the Hall of Fame. He was seriously overlooked for much of his career.

[metsmarathon]

harold baines belongs in the hall of seriously overlooked, not the hall of fame.

[Frayed Knot]

2008:
Tim Raines - No
Goose Gossage - No (but will)
Mark McGwire - No (t least for now)
Jim Rice - No
Andre Dawson - No
Bert Blyleven - Yes
Harold Baines - No
Jack Morris - No

In 2009:
Rickey Henderson - Yes
Mark Grace - No

In 2010:
Roberto Alomar - Yes
Barry Larkin - No
Edgar Martinez - No

In 2011:
Jeff Bagwell - No
Juan Gonzalez - No
Rafael Palmeiro - No (pending)
Larry Walker - No

In 2012:
Craig Biggio - Yes

[metsmarathon]

harold baines, from bbref:

Black Ink: Batting - 3 (502) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 40 (596) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 43.6 (109) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 66.5 (271) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

and according to baseballprospectus, in 22 seasons, only once did he have a WARP3 of 9 or higher, with a 9.0 in '84. his next best year was a 7.8 in '85. his career WARP3 was about 102.

and he has a career OPS+ of 120.

he had a long career. it wasn't fame-worthy.

...
tim raines fares better:

Black Ink: Batting - 20 (105) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 114 (176) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 46.8 (91) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 90.0 (174) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

in 23 seasons, he topped out with a WARP3 of 11.1 in '85, four more years above 10.0, and two more years above 9.0. his career WARP3 was 132

his career OPS+ was 123

he also had a long career, with i think a bit more dropoff than baines. does he make hte hall? i'd be tempted to vote for him myself, but i'm not sure he gets in.

[nymr83]

i disagree with FK on 4 guys, strangely i've always considered myself a "strict" guy with putting people in the hall but i'd put in these 4 guys that he'd keep out:

Tim Raines - No YES - its a joke to leave out a guy with a .385 obp and 808 steals (and an 84% success rate) he would be a legend if his career didn't coincide with rickey henderson's.
Jim Rice - No YES
Edgar Martinez - No YES
Jeff Bagwell - No YES


a few more active guys who i think may one day make it (based on current stats with no speculation on their futures):
FIRST BALLOT: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens, Trevor Hoffman, Randy Johnson, Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey jr.,
SUBSEQUENT BALLOTS: Curt Schilling, Jim Thome, Jeff Kent, Sammy Sosa,
CLOSE, BUT NO: Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield, Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner, Jason Giambi, Kenny Lofton, Mike Mussina*

*he belongs in but will be the neglected Blyleven of his generation.

[nymr83]

]And I am of the opinion that the best players of that era would have been the best players even if no one was doing steroids

certainly, baroid and bigmac would have been great players without steroids, but the best of the era? maybe that would have been someone else like griffey. arod could still be.

[Benjamin Grimm]

It's not the Hall of Great Statistics, it's the Hall of Fame.

Those who bring infamy (the opposite of fame) to the game don't belong.

If Bonds, McGwire, Rose, and Sosa never end up in Cooperstown, it's all right with me. And I don't care what their numbers are.

American Heritage Dictionary wrote: FAME NOUN: 1a. Great renown: a concert violinist of international fame. b. Public estimation; reputation: a politician of ill fame. INFAMY: NOUN: Inflected forms: pl. in�fa�mies 1. Evil fame or reputation. 2. The condition of being infamous. 3. An evil or criminal act that is publicly known.

[Guest Edgy DC]

On Tim Raines, yes.

On Martinez and Baggs, I'm still thinking.

On Rice, I'm having trouble getting past the double plays.

On valadius, he's getting over-excited and not giving anybody credit for the ability to weigh the nuances of a complex case.

[Valadius]

I think I brought this up a year or two ago, but seriously, how can you deny Larry Walker a spot in the Hall of Fame?

Lifetime average - .313
Home runs - 383
RBI - 1,311
SB - 230
OBP - .400
OPS - .965
7 Gold Gloves
1997 MVP
3 Batting titles
His OPS+ number, 140, is better than the likes of Reggie Jackson, George Brett, Dave Winfield, and Al Kaline.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Walker's a good choice. The argument against him is that he doesn't approach the plate appearances of those guys. But his Gold Gloves, if you believe he earned them, can make up for that difference.

[DocTee]

]how can you deny Larry Walker a spot in the Hall of Fame?

He's Canadian. We don't need no hoser canucks in our hall.

[nymr83]

]He's Canadian. We don't need no hoser canucks in our hall.

except Schilling.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: It's not the Hall of Great Statistics, it's the Hall of Fame. Those who bring infamy (the opposite of fame) to the game don't belong. If Bonds, McGwire, Rose, and Sosa never end up in Cooperstown, it's all right with me. And I don't care what their numbers are. ="American Heritage Dictionary"]FAME NOUN: 1a. Great renown: a concert violinist of international fame. b. Public estimation; reputation: a politician of ill fame. INFAMY: NOUN: Inflected forms: pl. in�fa�mies 1. Evil fame or reputation. 2. The condition of being infamous. 3. An evil or criminal act that is publicly known.

I don't think the name is meant to be taken literally. It's just that "Hall of Fellows Who Were Really, Really Good At Playing Baseball Professionally" is pretty unwieldy.

[Valadius]

Following up on Nymr's analysis of active players, here's my take:

Will make it:
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Ichiro Suzuki (if he plays another 3 seasons in MLB)
Mike Piazza
Alex Rodriguez
Ivan Rodriguez
Manny Ramirez
Frank Thomas
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Jeff Kent
Sammy Sosa
Trevor Hoffman
Mariano Rivera (grrrr...)

On the cusp:
Jim Thome
Gary Sheffield
Omar Vizquel
John Smoltz
Curt Schilling
Mike Mussina

Probably not:
Luis Gonzalez
Steve Finley
Kenny Lofton
Jim Edmonds
Jason Giambi

With a few years more, yes:
Carlos Delgado
Chipper Jones (grits teeth)
Vladimir Guerrero
Todd Helton
Albert Pujols
Billy Wagner

[Guest cleonjones11]

The Hall of Fame is for the very very great..not the very very good.

On the Fence guys

Dawson Yes
All elso No.. That means you Gossage and Rice

Surprised not to see Fred McGriffs name mentioned at all

[Valadius]

I just don't see Fred McGriff making it. Had he put up decent numbers his last two seasons instead of dropping off the face of the earth, it would be a different discussion.

[nymr83]

mcgriff didnt do enough offensively for a firstbaseman. he's not that far away but to me he's on the wrong side of the line between hall of famer and good player.

[Valadius]

Unfortunately, Jim Kaat's fate is now in the hands of the Veteran's Committee, which is need of reform in the worst way. They haven't elected anybody in 6 freaking years. They hold elections only every two years. If they loosened their requirements for induction - say 60% or 65% instead of 75% - then it would be a functional body. But getting 75% of the living Hall of Famers to agree on anything seems impossible to me.

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

Valadius wrote: I just don't see Fred McGriff making it. Had he put up decent numbers his last two seasons instead of dropping off the face of the earth, it would be a different discussion.

I disagree. A guy's prime is more important than his last two years. McGriff is what, seven homers shy of 500? And he's never been accused of doping so that 500 is looking better every day.

Of the guys on the ballot -- or soon to be -- I'd vote for:

Raines
Blyleven
Gossage
Rice
Dawson
McGwire
Dale Murphy

Of the guys not on the ballot next year, I'd vote for:
Henderson
Alomar
Larkin
Palmiero
Bagwell
McGriff

[Guest Edgy DC]

="Valadius"]Unfortunately, Jim Kaat's fate is now in the hands of the Veteran's Committee, which is need of reform in the worst way. They haven't elected anybody in 6 freaking years. They hold elections only every two years. If they loosened their requirements for induction - say 60% or 65% instead of 75% - then it would be a functional body. But getting 75% of the living Hall of Famers to agree on anything seems impossible to me.

Isn't that the result of reform? Wasn't the issue that they had elected too many folks?

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

At one of my previous papers, two guys in our sports department were voting members of the BBWAA. One took his vote very seriously and really studied the stats. He came up with his own formula, and while I didn't always agree with his picks -- he kept voting for Ron Guidry, and backed it with his formula -- I appreciated that he took the time to do it right because there are a lot of people like us who care about the Hall.

And the other guy spent, oh, two minutes -- maybe -- figuring out who he would vote for. Mostly Tigers. Drove us up a wall.

The sports editor let me fondle the ballot each year. You'd be surprised how plain it is. Literally, a list of typed names with a little box next to each one. Old school paper ballot. At least this was what it was like in the late 1990s. Might be different today.

Speaking of Tigers -- I should have added Alan Trammell to the list of guys I'd vote for.

[Valadius]

I never thought the Veterans' Committee elected too many players. Even if they did, now it's gone to the other extreme. It's also ludicrous to have them meet every other year - good lord, at least do this every year like everybody else.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't agree. I think, as far as Hall-of-Fame inductions go, the fewer the better. It ought to be very exclusive.

I'd like to remove about ten percent of the players in there.

[Frayed Knot]

They actually did tweak the voting process in the last few weeks, but I think it mostly had to do with having the existing H-o-F players vote only on players and have a seperate committee choose the writers, execs, etc.

[Vic Sage]

[u:e235bc07c3]2007 holdovers:[/u:e235bc07c3]

Blyleven, Bert - yes
Rice, Jim - borderline
Dawson, Andre - borderline
McGwire, Mark - borderline

Smith, Lee - no
Morris, Jack - no
John, Tommy - no
Garvey, Steve - no
Concepcion, Dave - no
Trammell, Alan - no
Parker, Dave - no
Mattingly, Don - no
Murphy, Dale - no
Baines, Harold - no

[u:e235bc07c3]2008:[/u:e235bc07c3]
Tim Raines - borderline

NO: Brady Anderson, Andy Benes, Delino DeShields, Shawon Dunston, Chuck Finley, Travis Fryman, David Justice, Chuck Knoblauch, Mike Morgan, Robb Nen, Greg Swindell, Randy Velarde, Mark Wohlers

[u:e235bc07c3]2009: [/u:e235bc07c3]
Rickey Henderson - 1st ballot
Mark Grace - no

NO: Steve Avery, Jay Bell, John Burkett, David Cone, Mike Bordick, Ron Gant, Denny Neagle, Dean Palmer, Dan Plesac, Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, Mike Williams

[u:e235bc07c3]2010: [/u:e235bc07c3]
Roberto Alomar - yes
Barry Larkin - yes
Edgar Martinez - borderline
Fred McGriff - no

NO: Kevin Appier, Rod Beck, Ellis Burks, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, , Shane Reynolds, Robin Ventura, Todd Zeile

[u:e235bc07c3]2011: [/u:e235bc07c3]
Jeff Bagwell - yes
Larry Walker - yes
Juan Gonzalez - no
Rafael Palmeiro - no

NO: Wilson Alvarez, Carlos Baerga, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, John Franco, Marquis Grissom, Mike Hampton, Al Leiter, Tino Martinez, Raul Mondesi, Hideo Nomo, John Olerud, Benito Santiago, Ugueth Urbina

[u:e235bc07c3]2012: [/u:e235bc07c3]
Craig Biggio - yes

NO: Bill Mueller, Tim Salmon, Tim Worrell

[Gwreck]

Larkin seems like a borderline candidate. He played 19 seasons but lost a lot of time due to injury (in only 12 of those seasons did he get 450 PAs).

In 6 of the 12 full seasons he hit over .300.

The career hits total (2340) avg (.295) and OBP (.371) are impressive.

3 Gold Gloves, 1 WS. 1 MVP in '95 but it was a strange vote (Larkin only got 11 first place votes) and Maddux's 19-2, 1.63 ERA probably should have gotten the MVP that year.

Never led the league in anything.

Compare to Edgar Martinez, who you listed as "borderline:"

2247 career hits, .312 AVG, .418 career OBP. 309 HRs. 2 batting crowns, 1 2nd place. Led league in runs once, RBI once, doubles twice. Over .300 in 10 of the 12 full seasons he had. Of course he also never played the field.

I'd probably vote for Martinez and not for Larkin.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Valadius wrote: I never thought the Veterans' Committee elected too many players.

Among people who think about this stuff, you're in the minority. Bill James has pretty well made the case that the veterans' committee, when it was a small group, acted as an old boy's network, and the best case your candidacy could have would be a friendship with one or more members of the committee.

]Even if they did, now it's gone to the other extreme.

Who is being screwed?

Valadius wrote: It's also ludicrous to have them meet every other year - good lord, at least do this every year like everybody else.

Why is this ludicrous?