Zee-Toe

[Farmer Ted]

"I was referring more to Ted's comment that we shouldn't give up certain players for a guy he'd never heard of"

Boy wonder, you're missing the point. WHY would you give up three of your best young players for a speculative player in return? As a fan, would you not want your team to get a known and durable entity? Those same three Mets players were being dangled for Barry Zito and Dontrelle Willis not too long ago. And now you want to package the same three for Rich Harden? Rich Freaking Harden? Yeah, I don't know the guy too well. I don't have his baseball card stuck in my spokes. I do know you can get more and better in return for a package of Heilman, Milledge, Humber, et al. One of the "top young pitchers in baseball" just spent three months on the DL for a sprained ligament in his pitching arm. This "trade" has the familiar stench of Victor Zambrano all over it.

[Guest ABG]

Farmer Ted wrote: "I was referring more to Ted's comment that we shouldn't give up certain players for a guy he'd never heard of" Boy wonder, you're missing the point. WHY would you give up three of your best young players for a speculative player in return? As a fan, would you not want your team to get a known and durable entity? Those same three Mets players were being dangled for Barry Zito and Dontrelle Willis not too long ago. And now you want to package the same three for Rich Harden? Rich Freaking Harden? Yeah, I don't know the guy too well. I don't have his baseball card stuck in my spokes. I do know you can get more and better in return for a package of Heilman, Milledge, Humber, et al. One of the "top young pitchers in baseball" just spent three months on the DL for a sprained ligament in his pitching arm. This "trade" has the familiar stench of Victor Zambrano all over it.

You don't even KNOW WHO HE IS.

[nymr83]

Rich "freaking" Harden is arguably a better bet going forward than Barry Zito. not that I have any problem with Zito.

[smg58]

Let me see a full season with an ERA better than 3.99 before I'd call Harden a better long-term bet than Zito. At this point, he's basically a prospect with a very high upside but also with major injury concerns. Not quite in the Wood/Prior category as far as risk, but too close to that for me to be comfortable with.

[Frayed Knot]

ESPN sez:
"The Texas Rangers have made a formal offer to left-hander Barry Zito, according to multiple media reports that cited club officials."

No specifics were mentioned.

[nymr83]

Were they bidding against the Mets or a Boras-created phantom team?

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Trivial aside:

Looking at the alphabetical list of Mets players (because of the "interesting image" thread) I noticed that Barry Zito, if he signed with the Mets, would replace Don Zimmer as the last alphabetical Met, a position he's held for almost 45 years.

And the list has both started and ended with guys named "Don" since Don Aase displaced Tommie Agee at the top of the list back in 1989.

Now, back to less trivial stuff...

[duan]

You have to think that if the Mets are going to get Zito he's going to command a 8 figure contract over 6ish years.

I'm not sure I want to do that, but we do have the money to. I think Zito's a good be to be an 'above average starter' for the duration of that deal; he's also a pretty good bet as pitchers go to be healthy for most of it.

I also think, with Glavine coming off the books this year or next he won't stop us pursuing Johan Santana et al when they come up for free agency. He's the best pitcher on the market, it's an expensive market, but it's not like he's Gil Meche who's as likely to break down or not be very good as he is be decent and is the same age.

[side issue; whatever about the effect of Peterson (and I wouldn't discount that) the effect of Shea and the NL will give Zito a lift too]

[Guest ScarletKnight41]

I don't know that Shea would give Zito all that much of a lift over Oakland - that stadium has a huge amount of foul territory, which benefits pitchers at least as much as Shea's dimensions do.

[seawolf17]

But the A's are moving to Santa Clara, which means they're getting a new ballpark, which means more money and more opportunities for promotion. So it's not so far-fetched.

[Guest sharpie]

They're not moving for a few years and the A's aren't players in the current Zito sweepstakes so that isn't a factor. No question that Shea would be a better park for Zito than the Ballpark in Arlington. Of course Shea won't be around much longer either.

[Frayed Knot]

Don't think the park/league changes would matter all that much to Zito

Park Factors for pitchers in recent years:
(100 = neutral, <100 favors pitchers, >100 favors hitters)

[u:75106e81b0]Oakland[/u:75106e81b0]
2003 = 94
2004 = 101
2005 = 103
2006 = 97


[u:75106e81b0]Shea[/u:75106e81b0]
2003 = 99
2004 = 99
2005 = 99
2006 = 96


League ERAs 2006:
AL = 4.56
NL = 4.49
It would really be nice if writers/radio people woud stop acting as if an AL to NL move was worth about .75 ER/G for a hurler

[duan]

park factors are not equal. While I don't have the figures here; I seem to remember someone in BP proposing that the *nature* of them varies wildly. ie: some parks are just gravy for LH power while being death to the average pull righty. Similarly there are ones that surpress batting average (actually large foul territory may be a good example of one that does that, in that there's more outs on balls that aren't actually in play then in others).

Now I don't know if Zito's uniquely suited to Shea over the Colliseum, but I've seen it written by guys who are smart and in depth enough to be aware these things to think that he may be.

Finally, league wide era doesn't tell you the full picture; in that, a league wide era measures the subset of hitters vs pitchers in each league, rather then measuring them together (which by it's nature would be impossible) if, as has been argued over the last couple of years, the AL is a league with better hitting & better pitching the ERA's could be the exact same as the NL with inferior hitting & inferior pitching, as the ERA depends on the interaction between hitting & pitching rather then being a direct co-relation of the quality of one of them.

The only way you actually compare is by looking at the success of transitional players. The ones that jump out at you this season are Soriano & Arroyo, but who's to say it isn't just a good season rather then moving to an easier league.

[duan]

them is clunky clauses i got in there.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Clunky Claus used to come out on the toygiving runs with his more famous cousin Santa, but he just slowed the whole operation down.

[Frayed Knot]

]... park factors are not equal. While I don't have the figures here; I seem to remember someone in BP proposing that the *nature* of them varies wildly. ie: some parks are just gravy for LH power while being death to the average pull righty

All correct. Not just LH vs RH but some parks can help power while supressing 1Bs, 2Bs & 3Bs thus not really helping scoring, or vice-versa.
The good news is that the fly-ball pitching Zito would most likely not be hurt by Shea but I don't think he was in Oakland either so I don't think it'll make a big difference to him one way or the other.




Latest Zito news (more like news in anticipation of news):
- Mets "getting ready to meet with Zito" or so says Newsday's Ken Davidoff although no time or place has been set.
- the only offer so far has been from Texas and no concrete numbers have been public so far although Davidoff (and other sources) have them as being "open to passing the $100mil mark"
- Also mentions that the Mets have been in contact with pitcher Jeff Suppan but that he doesn't appear to be too high on their radar screen

[nymr83]

I hope Suppan isn't even on the radar screen.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Radar? Suppan shouldn't even be on the Mets sonar.

Get Zito, please.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

On the same page that contained this article is a link to another Post article from the other day saying, "Mets Lukewarm on Zito."

Anyway, here's what they're saying today:

="The New York Post"] IN HOT PURSUIT By MICHAEL MORRISSEY December 16, 2006 -- When the Mets pull out all the stops on a recruiting pitch, they usually get their man. Ask Tom Glavine. Ask Billy Wagner. Barry Zito might get the chance to ask them if he visits the Big Apple next week. As the Mets prepare for their most important task of the offseason - landing Zito - they are bringing out the big guns. According to a baseball official, David Wright, Glavine and Wagner have been encouraged to woo Zito, and they are willing to do their part. Wright spoke publicly on the subject Wednesday, and Glavine told The Post last night that he would be willing to fly from Georgia to New York specifically to help persuade Zito. Glavine has never met Zito, but he would love to get to know the former Oakland ace. Glavine, a future Hall of Famer, knows it's crucial to get a young horse to anchor the rotation. "I think it's important, whether it's Barry or somebody else," Glavine said. "No question, if you look at the makeup of the team, the one thing we can stand to do is get younger in the front of the rotation. "Next year and years going forward, it's going to be important for us [to have someone] who is young and is durable and has been successful. Certainly Barry has met all the criteria." The Mets are gathering the troops while trying to line up something with Zito for next week. "There's a lot of guys who would help," a baseball official told The Post yesterday. In other words, what the Mets might lack in financial power, they'll try to make up in manpower. Once again yesterday, a source with knowledge of the Mets' plans said the team will not throw ridiculous dollars at the 28-year-old southpaw, who went 16-10 last season with a 3.83 ERA. The source said the Mets really aren't interested in going beyond a five-year deal. That could be a problem, given that Texas is reportedly willing to make a six-year, $100 million proposal. The Rangers already have a formal deal on the table, believed to be for at least five years. Another client of agent Scott Boras, Daisuke Matsuzaka, just signed a six-year pact with Boston. But as Glavine told The Post, the days of the Mets needing to outspend everyone else are over. Intangibles can make the difference. "I think the tides have turned in that regard," Glavine said. "For the Mets for so many years, they had to overpay for guys to come there. That really isn't the case anymore. They don't have to be a highest bidder anymore." As the 40-year-old lefty put it, if he can leave Atlanta after 16 years and have fun in New York and do well, anybody can move on. He touted the Mets' strengths - a good, young core coming off an NLCS appearance in the country's most vibrant city. "There are not too many better places than the Mets," Glavine said. "The future is extremely bright." michael.morrissey@nypost.com

[Guest patona314]

wow, that coming from glavine about nyc. i guess he really is a met.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Today is Shmooze Barry Day. The Mets are sending a four-man contingent to California to meet with Barry Zito and sell him on how great it would be to pitch for the Mets.

Let's hope it works.

I saw a quote from David Wright saying that he'd love to have a chance to tell Zito that New York would be the place to spend the next four or five years.

Meanwhile, there are reports that Boras is talking six or seven.

Hopefully they'll narrow the gap with a "five or six." Maybe a five-year contract that could vest into a sixth year based on innings.

I have no objection to the Mets going to a sixth year for Zito. It's not my money, after all. And the Mets have very little money commited so far for 2012, which would be the sixth year. (I think only Wright's contract extends that far.)

So, go get him, Omar! Turn on the charm, Jeff! Refrain from speaking Street Spanish, Tony!

I want to see Zito at a Shea Stadium press conference shortly after the New Year.

[Methead]

I remember driving to my parents house for Christmas when I heard the Hampton trade news on the radio. I'm hoping for an even better present this year. As you said, it's not my money!

[Centerfield]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Refrain from speaking Street Spanish, Tony!

That was really funny.

[Frayed Knot]

The Hampton trade (just before) and the Mo Vaughn trade (just after) both came Christmas week.

That said, I don't expect a quick resolution to this one.
Zito has already talked to Texas (supposedly an offer was made) and now gets a first meeting with Omar & gang. Seattle & San Fran are rumored to be interested and the Angels are often mentioned as a dark horse even though they've yet to say anything publicly. Then again, they were also quiet in the Vlad sweepstakes before swooping in under everyone's noses. That some even suspect Anaheim could get it on things is enough of an excuse to allow Boras to float the existance of a "mystery team" into the works. Well, that and that the Yanquis are never far below anyone's radar.

So unless the Mets think they've got enough pull to force an early decision with some sort of 'take-it-or-leve-it' offer, I suspect that this tour's still got a few stops left on it and could easily extend until after New Years.

[Guest sharpie]

I had read (somewhere) that the Angels have formally pulled out of the Zitostakes. Giants don't really have the scratch to sign him. I guess the Mariners could pony up the money but I doubt they will. I really think it is between the Mets and Rangers.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

The MFYs signed on Igawa for 5 years, so I don't know if they want a 4th lefty.

[Frayed Knot]

I don't think the Yanx are going to be in this either -- but that's not gonna stop Boras from pretending that they're the ones currently on hold on the other line.

People are suspecting Anaheim mainly because there's this view that they've been quiet ... almost too quiet.

[smg58]

Here's yet another case of so many conflicting reports that you don't know who to believe.

At this point, given that the two pitchers I'd have considered dealing for (Garcia and Jennings) have already been traded, I think it's Zito or nobody. And I don't want nobody.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

The latest from Mary Noble. Count me among the advocates of "passing gear."

="Marty Noble"] League waits on Mets' strategy 12/20/2006 9:15 AM ET By Marty Noble / MLB.com As shoppers in the free agent market, the Mets of recent vintage have shown a tendency to follow through and get their man. Once they pick up the scent of a player who appeals to them and who would fill a void in their roster, they seem to do what's necessary to close the deal, whether that entails adding money or years -- or both -- to an existing proposal. They seldom have retreated. The Mets afforded Tom Glavine what he wanted in December, 2002. The following year, the offer of fourth year under contract persuaded Pedro Martinez to move to Flushing, and a late-in-game increase in money brought Carlos Beltran to the Mets. Last year, it was a final push, fourth-year offer that convinced Billy Wagner to decline the Phillies' offer and move to Shea Stadium. Whether that type of persistent dedication is a component of the Mets' pursuit of Barry Zito remains to be seen. To this point, their approach has been one of spoken restraint. Until flying to California and meeting with Zito and his representative Tuesday, they had moved forward as if tethered to reluctance by a short elastic band. Whether their appearance of reservation is not merely appearance or part of a strategy -- or both -- is left to agent Scott Boras to measure. Others in the free agent market are watching the Mets now, most of them seemingly convinced the club won't retreat and that Zito will bring his curve ball and his 200-innings plus to Shea Stadium. They're just not sure whether the primary factor in this scenario will be Zito's desire to pitch for a New York team with a chance to play in the postseason or what one agent calls "Omar's momentum." Or both. "You get the feeling that if Zito gives a sign that he's real interested in playing in New York, Omar will shift into passing gear and get it done," a long-time agent said Tuesday night. Minaya is not alone in this pursuit, of course. And if he indeed has passing gear, it is fueled by the Wilpon treasury. Jeff Wilpon, the Mets COO, as well as Minaya's assistants John Ricco and Tony Bernazard, are parts of the four-man delegation that met with Boras and his client Tuesday. Each was in place before Beltran, also a Boras client, before the Mets agreed to pay the center fielder $119 million for seven years of service. Neither number in the Zito scenario will reach so high. The Mets are reluctant to afford a pitcher a contract of five years, though the average annual value of Zito's eventual contract -- whether he signs with the Mets, Rangers or Giants -- is likely to equal that of Beltran's. $17 million. "I think the Mets liked how last season went," the agent said. "What's not to like? With the talent they have, they have a chance to turn one year into the first year of a run. With the new park and the new network, that makes sense. If Omar is convinced that signing Zito assures them of that -- or at least makes them the favorite, he'll probably go into passing gear."

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

="MLB.com"] Rangers acquire McCarthy from Sox 12/23/2006 7:44 PM ET By T.R. Sullivan / MLB.com ARLINGTON -- General manager Jon Daniels, admitting he is not "terribly encouraged" about being able to sign free-agent southpaw Barry Zito, achieved his goal of adding a front-line starting pitcher to the Rangers' rotation by acquiring right-hander Brandon McCarthy from the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. McCarthy, 23, who pitched out of the White Sox's bullpen last season, was acquired along with Minor League outfielder David Paisano for Minor League pitchers John Danks, Nick Masset and Jacob Rasner. Danks, who is from Round Rock, Texas, was the Rangers' No. 1 draft pick in 2003 and one of their top young pitching prospects, while Masset was a candidate for the bullpen next season. McCarthy, who is 4-7 with a 4.68 ERA for the White Sox in 2006, joins a rotation that already includes right-handers Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla and Robinson Tejeda. "In our minds, this is one of the elite, young, now-ready, battle-tested pitchers in the game," Daniels said. "As we go along, we've kept a list of the top young pitchers in the game and Brandon has always been at the top of the list." The Rangers remain interested in Zito and have made an offer that's believed to be in the $75-80 million range. But they have gone nowhere near offering the $100 million that's been thrown out there the past few weeks, and all indications are they aren't planning to do that. That's why it's unlikely he'll be coming to Arlington. "We're still interested in Barry, but I'm not optimistic," Daniels said. "I'm not terribly encouraged by our chances."