Benson Trade Rumor Thread (Julio? Vazquez? Pudge?)

[Guest GYC]

http://www.nypost.com/sports/mets/58699.htm

METS COULD DEAL BENSON
FOR O'S JULIO

By KEVIN KERNAN
PHOTO KRIS BENSON
10-8, 4.13 in 2005.
Photo: Jeff Zelevansky

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December 1, 2005 -- EXCLUSIVE

Season tickets are on sale, and so is one Mets pitcher.

The Mets are moving toward dealing starter Kris Benson to the Orioles for reliever Jorge Julio, sources have told The Post.

It is a trade that makes sense for both teams and could be consummated at the winter meetings, which begin next week in Dallas.

With the improvement of Aaron Heilman, the Mets have a surplus of starting pitchers and have been looking to deal Benson. Omar Minaya is reshaping the Mets, and Benson is not a pitcher Minaya acquired.

"It's not done yet but it could be finalized at the meetings," a source said last night.

A second source confirmed the two sides are in "concrete" talks to finalize the trade. The Orioles need pitching, especially a veteran starter, and Benson, who turned 31 on Nov. 7, fits the bill.

Benson came to the Mets in a trade with the Pirates on July 30, 2004. The Mets sent Ty Wigginton, Jose Bautista and Matt Peterson to the Pirates for Benson and Jeff Keppinger. Benson went 12-12 overall that season then became a free agent. He was re-signed by the Mets to a three-year deal worth $22.5 million.

Benson was 10-8 last season with a 4.13 ERA.

The Mets want Julio because they are rebuilding their bullpen. They've already gotten the biggest piece of the puzzle in place, free-agent closer Billy Wagner, who signed a four-year, $43 million deal this week.

But the Mets need arms to get to Wagner.

Julio is a hard thrower who can become a strong setup man. The 26-year-old struggled last season with a 3-5 mark and a 5.90 ERA. In each of the three previous seasons, Julio was a closer; he compiled 83 saves for the Orioles.

His out pitch is a four-seam fastball that he fires in the 96-98 mph range. He also throws a slider. Julio gets himself in trouble when he tries to overthrow. As a result, he loses his release point and his control.

He walked 39 batters in 2004 over 69 innings. Last season, he walked 24 batters over 71 2/3 innings.

Benson is a solid starter but never has quite reached his potential. He was the overall No. 1 pick in the 1996 draft.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Not.

[Guest KC]

I don't care how hard he throws, trading away a starting pitcher for a set-up
guy doesn't make too much sense to me no matter how much starting pitching
you think you have.

For the first time in what seems like quite awhile, The NYT's sports section had
no Mets related article today. Maybe The Post HAS to have one or two.

[Theoldmole]

ETs? Will they have to phone home for permission?

[Guest Edgy DC]

They seemed to overpay when they sent Hundley for Benitez, and they did well. Maybe they think they can rob Baltimore again.

I'm just so trade averse. I also think they'd do better to move a vet for some minor-league talent to throw the equilibrium back a little.

[MFS62]

I'm not sure.
What does Jorge's wife look like?

Later

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

]It is a trade that makes sense for both teams

Debateable. What's so special about Julio besides a few seasons as a default closer for a lousy team? Even in his good years he wasn;t much of a strikeout monster and last season his ERA was six.

On edit: But for the fact they were 26-year-old O's closers, Benitez isn;t even a fair comparison to Julio.

[Centerfield]

Um, no.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Pass. If they're set on dealing Benson, they can get more back than a setup guy.

Minaya may not have dealt for Benson, but Kris was re-signed on Omar's watch. So I don't know that I buy the "Omar Hates Kris" angle.

If this wasn't from the New York Post I'd be a little more concerned that it might be real.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Julio made $2.5M last year--assuming we sign him for about the same, we'll save $5M on the deal, so this mostly looks like a salary dump.

We should be able to do way better, though.

On the other hand, if Peterson can straighten out Julio's mechanics, he might be pretty solid.

[Guest HappyRecap]

Would rather see them dump Trachsel.

Like most of you, I agree that dumping a starter for a set-up guy is not a good move.

If this doesn't pave the way for Heilmann to get into the rotation then it really is a dumb move.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The proliferation of the Banson Bunch tells me that the Mets didn't overpay Kris so much as reported. If everybody needs pitching as badly as they do every other off-season, Benson's likely worth more than that.

Offer them Ishii, maybe.

There are better ways to escort young starters into the rotation than dumping the veteran starters for less than their value.

[Frayed Knot]

]With the improvement of Aaron Heilman, the Mets have a surplus of starting pitchers

No they don't.
No one gets through a season with only 5 starters and with Petit gone the most likely mid-season/injury replacement is gone. And if Heilman is now a starter (?) this doesn't really cover a hole so much as it just shuffles the deck chairs a bit.

[Guest HappyRecap]

Edgy, is Ishii still around? I thought they dumped him a week or so ago.

But I agree, Benson is worth more than that.

[Guest Edgy DC]

They decined his option, still own his rights, according to reports.

[smg58]

It looks like something similar to Cameron for Nady (freeing salary to do something else, but not getting an equal player in return), except Nady has a bit more to recommend him. I'm not sure I'd want Julio blocking younger guys. I could almost see it for Steve Kilne, because we're thinner from the left side, but he's also coming off a bad year. And Benitez only had one year (his rookie year) like Julio's last season, so it's not a fair comparison.

[Frayed Knot]

For all the talk about MPH readings (something fans get way too hung up over) Julio, over the last 3 years, doesn't have particularly good:
- K-rates: 58 in 72 IPs, 70 in 69 IPs, 52 in 62 IPs
- WHiP figures: 1.40, 1.42, 1.52
- or ERAs: 5.90, 4.57, 4.38

His best year seems to have been his first full one in '02 when he was ERA = 1.99, WHiP = 1.20 (I think this is when Francesa fell in love with him, he's been touting Julio ever since IIRC).

This year coming up looks to be his 5th season meaning that he's arb eligible for his salary and would be under club control for the next 2 seasons.


Between this one (if true) and the Cameron deal, Omar has yet to impress me with his ability to get much return for a couple of very usable spare parts.

[DocTee]

Johnny Dickshot wrote:

"But for the fact they were 26-year-old O's closers, Benitez isn;t even a fair comparison to Julio."


NY Post wrote:

"Julio gets himself in trouble when he tries to overthrow. As a result, he loses his release point and his control."

Sounds eerily similar to me.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Yeah, I think I'm with you, FK.

Although if we take the money we save from Benson & sign Burnett, I might change my mind.

Even if we don't sign a free agent SP, we'd still have:
Petey, Glavine, Seo, Trachsel, Zambrano, with Heilman as an emergency starter. That's not a bad rotation. If Glavine repeats and Seo pitches half as well as he did last year, we'll be in good shape--I think Zambrano & Trachs are likely to give us league average performances this year.

Our pen (assuming this trade happens) would probably be: Wagner, Heilman, Julio, Padilla, Bell, Perisho, Ring

Short on LOOGY's (Perisho sucks), but not bad. Right now, all that's left via free agency are Ricardo Rincon (short 36-year old with pretty good splits) & Chris Hammond (good 40-year old who can be left in against righties--had a groin injury at the end of the season, although I don't know how severe).

Either one of them would probably be decent pickups but competition might get fierce. Given that Heilman held lefties to a .208 BA last year, I wouldn't mind giving one of our youngsters like Ring or Hamulack a shot as low-leverage LOOGYs.

To add a little depth, I'd like to see us sign someone like Armas Jr.--and maybe Dotel, too--to stash at AAA.

[Willets Point]

Bummer, I was just starting to like Benson.

Besides that would leave the Mets with an absence of pornstar wives.

[Centerfield]

By the way, I just want to point out that the title of the thread makes it seem the deal is far more likely than the headline of the article.

And the headline of the article probably makes the deal seem more likely than it really is.

[seawolf17]

You want another Benitez-Julio parallel?

New York Mets traded Todd Hundley and Arnold Gooch to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Roger Cede�o and Charles Johnson on December 1, 1998.
New York Mets traded Charles Johnson to the Baltimore Orioles for Armando Benitez on December 1, 1998.

That would be freaky if this happened today.

[Willets Point]

Especially if the Mets ended up with Roger Cedeno.

[Guest heep]

I think Omar an Co. feel Benson is not worth his contract, and will always be an average pitcher.

The bottom line is he is overpaid. If dumping the salary affords them the opportunity to go after another 8 million/year pitcher, i.e. Zito, then I say go for it Omar. But we could do a little better than Julio.

And on the overpaid note, I think if Hernandez and/or Molina deem Omar's 3 years at 24 million offer unacceptable as I read Nero state in a paper today, they too will be overpaid. Forget them. 8 million is a solid, sound offer.

I'd be happy with Toby Hall and Castro. Plus we would not be relinquishing a draft pick.

[Elster88]

Does anyone think this is an absolutely terrible trade? Like there is absolutely nothing good about it.

Trading a decent starter for a piddling middle reliever? Give me a fucking break.

If he really wants to get rid of Benson, wait until mid season when Boston or a team 5 games out of the wildcard is crying for pitching help, and get three prospects back.

I guess the only possiblility that makes sense is that we are trading him and then using that saved money to go after someone else. But that seems pretty far-fetched and difficult considering the status quo isn't so bad.

If Omar does this trade, I will start to wonder if that silly notion that he only wants Hispanic players might not be so silly after all.

[Guest abogdan]

Yeah, this trade sucks. Trading a perfectly acceptable average starting pitcher for a crappy middle reliever makes no sense. I can somewhat understand trading a starter since the Mets do have a bit of a surplus, but to do it for a reliever who had one good year four seasons ago makes no sense.

[duan]

em, there's a LOAD of stuff to worry about here ...
For a start in ANYONE thinks Benson is overpaid all they have to do is look at the other contracts dished out last year and Esteban Loaiza this year already.

Secondly Jorge Julio's been postively mediocre except for ONE year. ONE FREAKIN' YEAR.
So you're giving up a decent 3/4 starter (not great, I'm not suggesting that for a minute) for a guy who's likely to be the 5/6th man in the pen?

fookin' stoopid that'd be.

[Frayed Knot]

]I think Omar an Co. feel Benson is not worth his contract, and will always be an average pitcher. ... The bottom line is he is overpaid.

Compared to what? Have you checked out what Estaban Loaizia just got? 7-ish per year is the going rate for decent/not great pitchers these days.

Dickshot tracked "The Benson Bunch" all season. 'TBB' were the group of FA pitchers who signed contracts last year that were similar in length & dollars to what we inked Benson for [Lowe, Leiber, Ortiz, etc]. Krissy held up very well at or near the top of that group all year - even as he faded a bit at the end. If he were banished it would likely take about the same amount of money to replace his production.
Zito is making similar money to Benson now only because he's on the last year of a deal signed when he was a young player w/no leverage. Plus, once you add in the "price" in players it would take to pry him out of Beane grasp, he's not going to be cheaper than Benson at all - and he'd only be here for a single season before he'd be sure to make considerably more.

"Dumping" Benson for the $$ savings would make more sense if he were out of position (Cameron) or woefully under-earning his price (Matsui) but I'd argue he isn't either. And the $3-$4 mil savings over each of the next 2 years (the diff between Benson & Julio) isn't going to make that big a dent in paying for a FA like Burnett which could reach $12/per x 5 years.

[Guest Rotblatt]

I wonder if there's a piece missing here in this proposed trade--like maybe we get a prospect back. I would think that Penn & probably Markakis (OF with some nice numbers who's rocking the AFL right now, IIRC) would be off-limits, but maybe Adam Loewen (lefty power pitcher with control problems) or Val Majewski (lefty OF recovering from a torn labrum--should be ready by Spring) . . .

Or maybe those guys are all too good, but you'd think we'd be able to pry SOMEONE away from Baltimore in exchange for a decent pitcher . . .

[metirish]

I hate this trade idea for most of the reasons given in this thread, not that it means a whole lot but Benson seems to like being a Mets a lot.