Hall of Fame Ballot

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: Well, such a Hall of Fame would have Bucky Dent over Barry Larkin and Deion Sanders over Tony Gwynn. I don't really think a dull personality or a relative paucity of publicity were ever meant to be disqualifier.

Of course not. Fame is my personal tie breaker. It is not the only way I judge whether a player should be in the Hall of Fame. After all, it IS the Hall of Fame, not just the Hall of Statistics and IMO a player must be a significant part of the history of the game in the era in which he played. Numbers are a great part of it. But, as you know, there are other official criteria, such as "character".
But fame is my unofficial one if I'm still undecided.

And in the case of Kaline, other than being the youngest player to lead his league in batting, and then leading his league in doubles one year, he never led his league in any other statistical category. He was to batters what Don Sutton was to pitchers. You'd name the best right fielders in baseball when he played and you came up with Aaron, Clemente, Frank Robinson. Then, after a long pause, it would be "oh, and Kaline, too". And that was when he was still active. To me, that kind of player, an afterthought, is not a Hall of Famer.
Don't get me wrong, he was a pretty darn good player. But not a Hall of Famer in my mind.

What are your thoughts about Rose leading the voting on ESPN?

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

Little matters less than internet polling.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Kaline was mostly before my time, and I don't have a strong opinion about him. But if he was, as you say, the Don Sutton of hitters, then I'd agree that he doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame.

When I was young, though, I did wonder if Alkaline batteries were named after him. If they were, then maybe he really does belong in Cooperstown. After all, if it wasn't for that candy bar, Babe Ruth wouldn't be in there.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't know why this argument is centered around Kaline. His credentials seem almost beyond reproach.

Fifteen All-Star games, ten Gold Gloves, nine times finishing in the top ten in MVP voting, the Lou Gehrig Memorial Award, the Hutch Award, the Roberto Clemente Award. Never played in the minors.

That's not mentioning a single statistic.

Moreover, you decry statistical arguments and at the same time go after Kaline for his lack of league-leading numbers.

I never saw the guy play.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I'm not good at making HOF arguments but for fun, why don't those of you not voting for Albert Belle (which is all of you) take up the case?

First let's examine his career:
Top 10 in HR 8 times
Top 10 in XbH, total bases 7 timkes (in a row)
5 all-star games
5 silver sluggers
6 top 10 MVPs (deserved more)
381-1239-295/369/564

Black ink (league-leading stats): 28 (average HoFer 27)

Grey ink (top-10 stats): 137 (average HoFer 144)

HoF Standards (career value weighted over peak years) 36.1 (av. HoFer 50)

HoF Monitor (how likely a player with his stats could get in: 134.5 (av HoFer 100, 130+ described as a "virtual lock")

Like Kirby Puckett, Belle's career was cut short by a debilitating injury not far from his peak.

Similar batters:

Similar Batters

1. Carlos Delgado (914) -- likely HoFer
2. Juan Gonzalez (900)
3. Jim Edmonds (880) -- got a shot?
4. Moises Alou (874)
5. Jim Thome (872) -- got a shot
6. Dick Allen (867) -- got a shot
7. Shawn Green (863)
8. Hank Greenberg (859) * -- in
9. Chipper Jones (854) -- lilkely HoFer
10. Rocky Colavito (852)

[HahnSolo]

Belle was a little too over-agressive in the home security department around Halloween time for my tastes.

For those arguing Blyleven, why him and not Tommy John?

[seawolf17]

I think the knock on Belle is that he ate puppy dogs for breakfast. He just wasn't a nice guy, and when a guy is statistically on the borderline for his career, it's those types of things that sway you. I hated Belle; when I was living in Rochester, he was a total dick when the O's came up to play their annual exhibition, and that really stuck with me. You throw in the other incidents (like throwing a ball at a journalist and mysteriously changing your name from Joey to Albert) and it sticks in your craw, and you don't want to recognize the good things, because he didn't really do enough on the field to transcend that.

That said, the argument for Belle is my argument for Jim Rice; he was dominant for a couple of years -- the scariest hitter in the league.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think name-changing is keeping Nillson out of the Rock 'n' Roll Hall of Fame, though it couldn't kill the McGuinn candicacy.

[Valadius]

My ballot:

Bruce Sutter
Goose Gossage
Jim Rice
Bert Blyleven
Dale Murphy
Alan Trammell
Andre Dawson
Jack Morris
Orel Hershiser
Albert Belle

[seawolf17]

Crap. I forgot Jack Morris. He goes on the maybe list.

[Guest rpackrat]

JD, you'rte right about Belle. I simply overlooked him.

As for why Blyleven and not John: Blyleven was a better pitcher, plain and simple. He had a better career park adjusted ERA, finished in the top 10 in the league in ERA 10 times to John's 6, and in park-adjusted ERA+ 11 times to John's 7, and achioeved these numeric advabtages while pitching 4 fewer seasons.

[seawolf17]

But Tommy John has a surgery named after him. Ain't no Bert Blyleven surgery.

(Just kidding. TJ is not a HoFer, surgery or not.)

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

He should have had a battery named after him.

[metirish]

It could be said Byleven helped launch Chris "Boomer" Berman at ESPN...for that reason alone he should be kept out.......

[Valadius]

Eligible for the ballot next year:

Harold Baines
Derek Bell^
Dante Bichette
Bobby Bonilla^
Jeff Brantley
Jay Buhner
Ken Caminiti
Jose Canseco
Eric Davis
Tony Fernandez^
Tony Gwynn*
Darryl Hamilton^
Pete Harnisch^
Charlie Hayes
Glenallen Hill
Ken Hill
Stan Javier
Wally Joyner
Ramon Martinez
Mark McGwire*
Paul O'Neill
Gregg Olson
Cal Ripken Jr.*
Bret Saberhagen^
Jeff Shaw
Kevin Tapani^
Devon White
Bobby Witt

* = lock for election
^ = former Met

[duan]

explanation of jaws and more

"The Class of 2005
The Hitters


by Jay Jaffe

Back in January, I examined the 2004 Hall of Fame ballot through the lens of Baseball Prospectus' Davenport Translated player cards. The idea was to establish a new set of sabermetric standards which could help us separate the Cooperstown wheat from the chaff, especially since Bill James' Hall of Fame Standards and Hall of Fame Monitor tools have reached their sell-by date. After all, the Hall has added 26 non-Negro League players since James last revised those tools in 1994's The Politics of Glory, and we've learned a lot since then.
These new metrics enable us to identify candidates who are as good or better than the average Hall of Famer at their position. By promoting those players for election, we can avoid further diluting the quality of the Hall's membership. Clay Davenport's Translations make an ideal tool for this endeavor because they normalize all performance records in major-league history to the same scoring environment, adjusting for park effects, quality of competition and length of schedule. All pitchers, hitters and fielders are thus rated above or below one consistent replacement level, making cross-era comparisons a breeze. Though non-statistical considerations--awards, championships, postseason performance--shouldn't be left by the wayside in weighing a player's Hall of Fame case, they're not the focus here.

Since election to the Hall of Fame requires a player to perform both at a very high level and for a long time, it's inappropriate to rely simply on career Wins Above Replacement (WARP, which for this exercise refers exclusively to the adjusted-for-all-time version. WARP3). For this process I also identified each player's peak value as determined by the player's WARP in his best five consecutive seasons (with allowances made for seasons lost to war or injury). That choice is an admittedly arbitrary one; I simply selected a peak vaue that was relatively easy to calculate and that, at five years, represented a minimum of half the career of a Hall of Famer.

This oversimplification of career and peak into One Great Number isn't meant to obscure the components which go into that figure, nor should it be taken as the end-all rating system for these players. We're looking for patterns to help us determine whether a player belongs in the Hall or doesn't and roughly where he fits. Though this piece is founded on the sabermetric credentials of Hall of Fame candidates, I've also taken the trouble to wrangle together traditional stat lines for each one, including All-Star (AS), MVP and Gold Glove (GG) awards as well as the hoary but somewhat useful Jamesian Hall of Fame Standards (HOFS) and Hall of Fame Monitor (HOFM) scores.

The career and peak WARP totals for each Hall of Famer and candidate on the ballot were tabulated and then averaged [(Career WARP + Peak WARP) / 2] to come up with a score which, because it's a better acronym than what came before, I've very self-consciously christened JAWS (JAffe WARP Score). I then calculated positional JAWS averages and compared each candidate's JAWS to those enshrined.

It should be noted that I simply followed the Hall's own system of classifying a player by the position he appeared at the most. Thus, for example, Rod Carew is classified as a second baseman, and all of his numbers count towards establishing the standards at second, even though he spent the latter half of his career at first base. This is something of an inevitability within such a system, but the if the alternative is going nuts resolving the Paul Molitors and the Harmon Killebrews into fragmentary careers at numerous positions, we'll never get anywhere.

By necessity I had to eliminate not only all Negro League-only electees, who have no major league stats, but also Satchel Paige and Monte Irvin, two great players whose presence in the Hall is largely based on their Negro League accomplishments. Other Negro Leaguers, such as Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella and Larry Doby have been included. While their career totals are somewhat compromised by not having crossed the color line until relatively later in their careers, their peak values--especially Robinson's--contribute positively to our understanding of the Hall's standards.

Here are the positional averages, the standards, to which I'll refer throughout the piece.

POS # BRAR BRAA FRAA WARP PEAK JAWS
C 13 406 197 61 94.8 41.3 68.1
1B 18 717 465 2 98.2 43.1 70.7
2B 16 558 255 70 99.0 41.9 70.4
3B 10 594 322 48 100.2 42.2 71.2
SS 20 411 136 77 100.5 43.2 71.9
LF 18 730 462 -8 103.8 42.8 73.3
CF 17 694 445 14 108.8 46.5 77.6
RF 22 754 482 33 110.2 43.3 76.8

CI 28 673 414 18 98.9 42.8 70.8
MI 36 476 189 74 99.8 42.6 71.2
IF 64 562 287 49 99.4 42.7 71.1
OF 57 729 465 15 107.8 44.1 75.9

Middle 66 519 257 56 101.1 43.3 72.2
Corners 68 714 449 16 103.9 42.9 73.4

Hitters 134 618 354 36 102.5 43.1 72.8

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

From next year's ballot I'd vote for Gwynn and Ripken. I'd have to think about McGwire.

[Valadius]

I'd vote for the following of next year's freshman class:

Harold Baines
Jose Canseco
Tony Gwynn
Mark McGwire
Cal Ripken Jr.

Even with the steroids and the controversy, I gotta give the nod to Canseco for a long, productive career. The fact is that steroids were a part of the game in the 90's, like it or not (I don't). We can't shut out an entire era of baseball.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I don't think that not voting for Canseco is shutting out an entire era.

[Willets Point]

Canseco seems to be the most sensible member of the Surreal Life cast.

[Guest ScarletKnight41]

Willets Point wrote: Canseco seems to be the most sensible member of the Surreal Life cast.

I'm laughing too hard to come up with a suitable quip. But the standards for that are pretty low.

[Elster88]

Who's the more foolish, the fool or the fool who follows him? ;-)

[Willets Point]

ScarletKnight41 wrote: ="Willets Point"]Canseco seems to be the most sensible member of the Surreal Life cast. I'm laughing too hard to come up with a suitable quip. But the standards for that are pretty low.

Well I meant it as a funny comment but sadly it's also true.

[Guest sharpie]

Next year's class: Gwynn and Ripken. Prolly McGwire.

[nymr83]

Gwynn and Ripken. pass on McGwire the 1st time around i still want to think about him. no way to Harold Baines imo.

[MFS62]

Nice work, Duan, but I would like to ask a question about your use of VORP as a baseline. You say that this (including your adjustments)makes comparing players across eras easy. But do your formulae account for the fact that in past eras (before expansion) the quality of even the average replacement player was much higher than replacement players on the diluted rosters of post expansion years?
It is my observation that players who sat on the bench on those teams were far superior than some starters on current teams. For example, Jim Gentile sat on the bench behind Gil Hodges and Elston Howard and Gus Triandos sat behind Yogi Berra and Yogi sat behind Bill Dickey.

Also- you are comparing them against the average HOF member. I believe it is more valid to be comparing them against players who played in the same era. For example, what is the impact of pre/post dead ball eras? What about records before and after the mound was lowere (in the same ballparks)?

Have you accounted for things like that?
Not being critical, just asking.

Later

[Valadius]

Why is everyone rethinking whether McGwire deserves to get in 5 years after he retired? The consensus 4 years ago was that Gwynn, McGwire, and Ripken were all shoo-ins. Has the steroid controversy really affected his chances that much?

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Valadius wrote: Why is everyone rethinking whether McGwire deserves to get in 5 years after he retired? The consensus 4 years ago was that Gwynn, McGwire, and Ripken were all shoo-ins. Has the steroid controversy really affected his chances that much?

Of course. Fairly or not, it's had a huge effect on his chances.

[nymr83]

he led the league in OPS+ on 4 seperate occasions, you cant keep him out on the stats...i guess it really is the steroids that have soured me on him.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

It's Bert Blyleven Awareness Week at this site. Rob Neyer checks in:

http://thebaseballanalysts.com/