Tracking the Noffense

[Centerfield]

Put it this way.  16 Mets have 45+ ABs this year.  

Of those 16:

2 are rookies.  No past performance to measure against.

4 are backups/role players.  Luis Torrens, Tyrone Taylor, MJ Melendez, Jared Young.  They are performing like backups.

1 regular position player is performing at expectations (lofty ones at that).  Juan Soto.  

9 position players who were expected to have meaningful roles on this team are underperforming.  (Bichette, Semien, Baty, Vientos, Alvarez, Lindor, Robert, Polanco, Mauricio)

[The Hot Corner]

I'm not sure Robert, Semien  & Mauricio are significantly underforming expectations.  At least, not mine, as I really didn't expect much out of them.  Semien and Robert have been in decline for a few years going into this season.  To count on the two of them to suddenly rebound and be significant contributors was (and is) folly.  Mauricio, has never really impressed, so my expectations were quite low. 

Baty and Vientos have regressed and I don't expect either of them to ever be dependable regulars.  Vientos in particular, I am over.  He strikes out too much, walks too infrequently so his BA & OBP are pathetic and not conducive to a productive hitter.  Then to further reduce his value, he is a defensive liability at any position they have played him.  

Bichette is the player that has grossly underperformed my expectations.  He has at least been better the past month or so, but it's too little too late. As disappointing as he has been on the season as a whole  he leads the team in RBIs.

Lindor always starts slow, which is problematic, but he generally turns it around as the weather warms.  Unfortunately, his injury derailed his season.

I really didn't know what to expect from Polanco.  I think the Mets  counted on him to remain healthy and replicate his 2025 season while learning a new position.  Considering 2025 was one of his best seasons both in production and health, it was a questionable plan at best.

Okay, I get off my soapbox now.

 

[The Hot Corner]

I can't believe the Braves were crazy enough to give Soto anything to hit there.  

That was a no doubt bomb by Soto.

*Whoops, wrong thread.  So shocked, I lost track of where I was at.

[Frayed Knot]

42 runs scored in the last five games [8.4/G]. That's a nice little run but it's also why I'm only updating this twice per month so as to not get carried away by signs of "progress" in small sample sizes.

Still nice to see, though.

[Frayed Knot]

The mid-July update shows small signs of improvement in the Noffense ... even if not in that pesky W/L statistic that some teams seem to care about so much.

 

Hey, 90 for an OPS+ (10% below ML average) beats the hell out of 79 which is where they were in early May.

[Frayed Knot]

The mid-July update shows small signs of improvement in the Noffense ... even if not in that pesky W/L statistic that some teams seem to care about so much.

 

Hey, 90 for an OPS+ (10% below ML average) beats the hell out of 79 which is where they were in early May.

[Frayed Knot]

The mid-July update shows small signs of improvement in the Noffense ... even if not in that pesky W/L statistic that some teams seem to care about so much.

 

Hey, 90 for an OPS+ (10% below ML average) beats the hell out of 79 which is where they were in early May.

[Frayed Knot]

The mid-July update shows small signs of improvement in the Noffense ... even if not in that pesky W/L statistic that some teams seem to care about so much.

 

Hey, 90 for an OPS+ (10% below ML average) beats the hell out of 79 which is where they were in early May.

[Frayed Knot]

So while there's been incremental progress in the raw numbers since early in the year, the team's ranking remains pretty much unchanged now that we're four months into this little project which in turn gives little indication that it's going to be much better in the remaining four updates.

 

 

[Frayed Knot]

Well ... after "taking out the garbage" (don't blame me. Keith said it) or even 'throwing in the towel' (if you prefer that) at the trade deadline, the first half of August showed the most progress we've seen all year both in raw numbers and in rank among all MLB teams. So while too much time has gone by for these numbers/ranks ever being 'good', that they're no longer bottom of the barrel and stagnant there is a big improvement. So instead of being embarrassed by being a bottom-feeder, you can now claim, 'We're in the upper tier of the lower third at scoring'.  Hey, it's something.

 

[MFS62]

They’ve finally made it- to the top deck of the Titanic.

later

[Frayed Knot]

Backslidin' away  / Backslidin' away

Y'know the minute you think you're rising the more you're backslidin' away

 

So after making the first significant signs of progress during the first half of August, the second half just dragged 'em back down to the levels they've been at for most of the season.

 

 

[Centerfield]

More than any personnel moves the Mets make this offseason, they're going to need a deep dive on their hitting philosophies to figure out how talented players ended up performing so poorly.

[Gwreck]

44 minutes ago, Centerfield said:

More than any personnel moves the Mets make this offseason, they're going to need a deep dive on their hitting philosophies to figure out how talented players ended up performing so poorly.

As the season has gone on and the sample size has increased, I’m less convinced this is the issue and instead it’s more that the players the Mets had were just (a) bad or (b) hurt.  Maybe there is a philosophy change that can make Semien play like he’s 5 years younger or keep Polanco healthy but those seem like separate issues.

As for Alvarez, Baty, and Vientos…they’ve all had a lot of chances under several different regimes and the results are what they are.  Time to stop hoping they’ll get significantly better and accept that Alvarez is a useful player but cannot be expected to be an offensive cornerstone; that Baty is not an everyday player; and that Vientos should be non-tendered.

[Cowtipper]

I have been tracking Mets batters with .250 averages or better throughout 2026 and the number has slipped to just five:

Juan Soto - .282
Carson Benge - .277
Jared Young - .269
Bo Bichette - .263
Austin Slater - .250 ... no longer with team

[Centerfield]

8 hours ago, Gwreck said:

As the season has gone on and the sample size has increased, I’m less convinced this is the issue and instead it’s more that the players the Mets had were just (a) bad or (b) hurt.  Maybe there is a philosophy change that can make Semien play like he’s 5 years younger or keep Polanco healthy but those seem like separate issues.

As for Alvarez, Baty, and Vientos…they’ve all had a lot of chances under several different regimes and the results are what they are.  Time to stop hoping they’ll get significantly better and accept that Alvarez is a useful player but cannot be expected to be an offensive cornerstone; that Baty is not an everyday player; and that Vientos should be non-tendered.

You may be right. My breakdown of performance vs expectation (I’ve left the rookies out since there is no track record to set expectations):

Hurt 
1. Polanco. Never got going. A disaster. 
2. Robert.  Hurt, but at least he performed well in the short time he played.
3. Lindor.  Not enough ABs yet to counter his traditional slow start. 
4. Soto.  Obviously amazing, but just missed so much time.

Old
1. Semien.  Bad numbers the last two years.  This year was even worse, but that could be an age related downturn.  

Robert, Polanco and Semien were clearly a roster construction issue.  

Just Bad
1. Baty.  Inexplicably bad after showing promise last year.
2. Vientos.  Second straight bad year suggesting 2024 was a fluke.
3. Alvarez.  Disappointing bad stretch after seemingly figuring it out.  Still has a chance to end strong.
4. Bichette.  The biggest disappointment.  Sure maybe April/May was an adjustment period.  But also had a bad July.

Surprisingly Good 
1. Taylor. Contributed to the Jefferson Rojas trade. 
2. Torrens. Especially lately. 
3. Jared Young. .765 OPS. 

Of this group, four players underperformed, suggesting a flaw in approach. But that is offset by three players having surprisingly good seasons as against their track record. 

So maybe it is just random sampling.  Steve Cohen said in his interview that there was too much risk. Maybe that’s it. 

We said going into this season that there was incredible volatility to the lineup. I think I didn’t give enough weight to the injury risks on top of the inconsistency risks. 

Every player that was an injury risk got hurt. The old player played old. All the question marks achieved the low end of the spectrum. One “reliable” player had a down year (Bichette) and our two best players missed significant time. 
 

[Gwreck]

 

1 hour ago, Centerfield said:

 Just Bad
1. Baty.  Inexplicably bad after showing promise last year.
2. Vientos.  Second straight bad year suggesting 2024 was a fluke.
3. Alvarez.  Disappointing bad stretch after seemingly figuring it out.  Still has a chance to end strong.
4. Bichette.  The biggest disappointment.  Sure maybe April/May was an adjustment period.  But also had a bad July.

Surprisingly Good 
1. Taylor. Contributed to the Jefferson Rojas trade. 
2. Torrens. Especially lately. 
3. Jared Young. .765 OPS. 

Of this group, four players underperformed, suggesting a flaw in approach. But that is offset by three players having surprisingly good seasons as against their track record. 
 

A few thoughts:

-Alvarez’s numbers are down slightly but not tremendously off what he did in past years.  And he too of course also was hurt (as he seems to be every year).  Even if he finishes with a .718 OPS/101 OPS+, that’s not necessarily bad for a catcher; it’d be among the top third (or better) across MLB.  It’s just not superstar numbers.  And while he’s been hurt every year, there hasn’t been significant signs of improvement year over year.  Of course, he’s still just 24, but is Alvarez just “ok” and not a star?  It may have nothing to do with approach/philosophy.

-Both Baty and Vientos had some awful years under prior coaches so it’s not as if this year is something out of the blue.  Baty might be a bit more concerning as his peak was last year (so did a new philosophy this year cause a backslide?) but Vientos already significantly backslid from 2024 to 2025 without anything changing in terms of coaching/philosophy/etc.

-Bichette is a long-established hitter and as noted has improved over an abysmal start to the year.  Was it bad philosophy that contributed to that underperformance or was it bad luck/a tough adjustment period?

I raise a few of those points somewhat as devil‘s advocate, since I’m generally in favor of a wholesale firing of the coaching staff anyway.  But I’m not sure it was really a flaw in approach that did the Mets in versus some bad luck* and an absence of sufficient depth on the roster. 

*As I have probably said before, coming into the 2026 season, Bichette, Soto, and Lindor would have started for just about every team in MLB.   They combined for 15.5 WAR in 2025 but 4.6 in 2026.  Flip 11 wins for the Mets and they’re at 73-65, in position to get a wild card, highly problematic pitching staff notwithstanding.

[Frayed Knot]

I also tend to be wary about blaming coaches. That doesn't mean you don't evaluate and make changes if necessary but dumping on coaches is the equivalent of going after the low hanging fruit. We're rarely emotionally attached to coaches so that makes them an easy target to cite as the source of whatever problems the team is having.

[Centerfield]

To clarify, I wasn’t necessarily blaming it on the coaches. My theory was that the faulty philosophy came from the top. 
 

There are obviously a number of reasons that the Mets became one of the worst offenses in baseball. They’d be well served to root out all of them.