Marcus Semien Sucks

[Centerfield]

Continuing the conversation from the St. Louis IGT.  As Gwreck said, Semien still provides value with his glove.  3.3 WAR in 2025, despite just a .669 OPS.  That being said, you have to wonder if we can even get a repeat of that.

He has a -0.1 WAR so far (I know, meaningless sample size).  But if you look at how he's trending, it's not at all a given we'll get a 3 win player, or anything close to that.

2024:  4.5 WAR.  .699 OPS
2025:  3.3 WAR.  .669 OPS  (Second half 2025:  .593 OPS)

Spring Training 2026:  .649 OPS (46 PA)

2026:  .390 OPS (25 PA)

His Baseball Savant page is ugly.

Marcus Semien Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com

His bat speed is in the 5th percentile.  It's dropped from 13th% in 2023, 9% in 2024, 8% in 2025 to now 5%.  

For what it's worth, the projections were relatively high on him prior to the season.  

Steamer:  .703 OPS, 2.5 WAR

ZiPS:  .696 OPS, 2.8 WAR

BBR:  .715 OPS.  

I was kinda hoping taking him out of Texas would help his offensive numbers.  Texas has almost inexplicably bad home offensive numbers.  And that may still be the case.  I guess we'll see how this plays out.

I'm on record predicting he will be a defensive replacement by the end of the season.  Hope I'm wrong.   

[MFS62]

He sucks is a brief, but accurate, description. 
later 

[Ceetar]

Nimmo's at .360/.429/.520.  Mets could've easily played Baty at second and Vientos/Benge/Nimmo at DH.  The move made no sense, and continues to not make sense.

[Gwreck]

Just repeating it’s a 6-game sample size.

That said, what are the alternatives?

1. Vientos getting significantly more ABs (because Baty starts playing second regularly).  
-Defensive downgrade.  

-Not clear what we’re getting out of Vientos offensively but presumably at least a power threat. 

2. Mauricio gets called up and plays second regularly (Baty keeps his current role).  

-Defense is a slight (?) or moderate (?) downgrade.

-Mauricio had a hot spring and is clearly better than AAA but was very unimpressive last year when in the majors.  
 

3. External options 

Umm, we could try to trade for McNeil?  Or if the Giants don’t have a good year, Luis Arraez is on a one-year deal and could get moved at the deadline?  

[metirish]

I haven't given up on him yet, I think he'll have a big series in SF ,as Keith likes to remind us Semien is from there 

[duan]

i'd be cautious about any first couple of weeks judgements, but David Stearns has to be sweating a little.  None of Bichette, Semien or Polanco are hitting at all. 

he could use one of them having an OPS that feels like an OPS rather then an OBP. 
 

[The Hot Corner]

I am not too worried about Bichette.  I expect he will hit, as he has practically his entire career.  I think Polanco will be okay, not great, but okay.  Semien appears to be good defensively, but offensively he appears to be 

 

[ashie62]

Semien starts slow every year

[Centerfield]

Marcus Semien is 7 for 15 with a HR, 2B and 4 RBI since this thread started. 

[metirish]

We need him, definitely had a good series 

[seawolf17]

I don't know how these threads always work, but they do.

[The Hot Corner]

Hopefully, his offensive resurgence continues.  His glove is definitely still very good.  His tag on Young's throw to nab Encarcion yesterday was wonderful.

[Centerfield]

.557 OPS. 

[Gwreck]

We need this thread for Lindor, Bichette, Polanco, and Benge too.

[Ceetar]

Lowest walk rate since his pre-rookie season, highest k rate since 2017. Swinging at the most pitches out of the zone since pre-rookie season, despite getting the most first pitch strikes of his career. By a lot. Bat speed was already bad and now it's worse. 

He's running faster though. 

[Edgy MD]

Semien has a healthy amount of butt, and he kind of proudly sticks it out there in his batting stance.

[Centerfield]

Every AB results in a shallow fly ball. 

[Centerfield]

.526 OPS. 

[metirish]

 

 

A deeper dive from Cade , it's not good

[The Hot Corner]

By all indications and evidence thus far, Stearns got swindled in this deal.  He traded a good player for a formerly good player that gives every appearance that he is totally washed up.  Absolutely horrible deal for the Mets, but at least they are only on the hook for 3 years (rather than 5 with Nimmo).  🙄

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't think anyone here expected that this trade would turn out to be a good one.

[Edgy MD]

But has he gotten even an inning off?

I am probably misremembering, but of the secondbaseman, thirdbaseman, and shortstop, I think only Bichette has sat a day, and he DH'd that day.

I don't think we're doing him or the team any favors by riding these three hard while mixing the other players in and out of the lineup.

[Gwreck]

No, he hasn’t.

If/when Polanco goes on the IL, they should call Mauricio back up and give both Lindor and Semien some days off.

[Centerfield]

I read someplace that if they call up Mauricio again, then that's it.  He's out of options.  Could certainly affect that decision.  Vidal Brujan has a .623 OPS in Syracuse.  He had a .616 OPS across 3 teams last year.  It's not great, but it's at least 100 points better than we're getting from Semien.  

[Edgy MD]

No, he can go up and down all season, if need be.  His final option year was triggered when he got called up last week, but he can still bounce between levels this season.

[Edgy MD]

2 hours ago, Gwreck said:

If/when Polanco goes on the IL, they should call Mauricio back up and give both Lindor and Semien some days off.

Even if Mauricio doesn't return any time soon, Baty can play second once a week, and Bichette can certainly sub in at shortstop twice a month.

[Gwreck]

True, although more Baty in the lineup right now may be a bad thing.

[duan]

15 hours ago, Edgy MD said:

No, he can go up and down all season, if need be.  His final option year was triggered when he got called up last week, but he can still bounce between levels this season.

This isn’t true any more !

it’s a maximum of five times in a season before they need to be exposed to waivers

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3201371/2022/03/23/for-a-handful-of-players-mlbs-new-limit-on-minor-league-options-will-reduce-the-whirlwind-of-callups/?source=user_shared_article&unlocked_article_code=1.blA.fW1K.4ZPTXBnUjzcm&smid=ta-ios-share

[Edgy MD]

2 hours ago, duan said:

This isn’t true any more !

it’s a maximum of five times in a season before they need to be exposed to waivers

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3201371/2022/03/23/for-a-handful-of-players-mlbs-new-limit-on-minor-league-options-will-reduce-the-whirlwind-of-callups/?source=user_shared_article&unlocked_article_code=1.blA.fW1K.4ZPTXBnUjzcm&smid=ta-ios-share

Well, indeed, I exaggerated about "all season," but my point is that his option year does not end after his next callup.

I am certain will not have to worry about Mauricio being called up and sent down five times.  The rule is more about the abuse of bullpenners, but your correction is noted.