Let's talk about Joe Ryan

[Benjamin Grimm]

I've never heard of Joe Ryan until a few minutes ago, when I saw the following on CBS Sports website:

 

Count the Mets among the teams with interest in Twins ace Joe Ryan, according to the New York Post. The club is known to be seeking a high-end starter this offseason and the Twins, who sold hard at the trade deadline, figure to listen to any and all offers for Ryan. New York's farm system is fairly deep, potentially giving them a leg up in trade discussions.

 

Apparently he's the Twins' ace pitcher! The Mets have previously traded for Frank Viola and Johan Santana, so why not Joe Ryan?

[Benjamin Grimm]

29 years old. (He'll turn 30 in June.) Two years away from free agency. 3.42 ERA last year with 194 strikeouts and 39 walks in 171 innings.

[Edgy MD]

Apparently he's the Twins' ace pitcher! The Mets have previously traded for Frank Viola and Johan Santana, so why not Joe Ryan?

 

And Dean Chance!

[Gwreck]

I’d propose (a) Tong or Sproat; ( Baty or Vientos; and © Williams or Benge for Ryan and Byron Buxton.

[Frayed Knot]

I saw Buxton's name connected to the Mets recently (purely via speculation) in a What-if? kind of way. But that 'What-if' involves him changing his mind about his no-trade protection. As of last trading deadline he was adamant about Not leaving the only organization he's ever know despite the Twins being 12 G back in the Central in late July on their way to 18 games out and a 70-92 record by season's end.

Buxton turns 32 next week, is signed for three more seasons at $15+/per with performance and award bonuses which could up those numbers by plenty.

He's been good when healthy but is rarely healthy. The good news is that he topped 105 games played (126) in 2025. The bad is that it's only the second time he's done in an eleven year career [2017 / 140 G]. Over the last five seasons he's averaged 93 games played/382 PAs, but also a 134 OPS+

[Gwreck]

Passan was reporting earlier this week that Buxton is open to waiving the no-trade clause.

Interestingly, 2026 is his last year of full no-trade rights. He can only block trades to 5 clubs in 2027 and 2028.

He also, as FK noted, has some interesting escalators in his contract. He can make up to $2.5 M more each season based on plate appearance targets (pretty standard) but he also has the highest MVP award bonuses I’ve ever seen: “$8M for MVP ($7M for second place in vote, $6M for third place, $5M for fourth place, $4M for fifth place, $3M for sixth-10th place).”

Buxton finished 11th in AL MVP voting this past year.

[Edgy MD]

If he stays with the Twins another season, I imagine his five-and-ten rights would supercede his contractual rights, and give him the right to reject trades.

If he is acquired in a trade this off-season, that is out the window, though he may demand his contractual no-trade rights be extended/expanded in exchange for his consent to this trade.

[Frayed Knot]

Passan was reporting earlier this week that Buxton is open to waiving the no-trade clause.

Interestingly, 2026 is his last year of full no-trade rights. He can only block trades to 5 clubs in 2027 and 2028.

 

But he'll be 10 & 5 just a handful of games into the 2026 season (currently 9 yrs + 160 days) which gives him blanket N-T protection.

oe: cross-posted w/Edgy

[The Hot Corner]

I’d propose (a) Tong or Sproat; ( Baty or Vientos; and © Williams or Benge for Ryan and Byron Buxton.

 

Joe Ryan is pretty solid. Byron Buxton is a superlative athlete that provides power, speed and very good defense in CF, the problem is keeping him healthy enough to stay on the field. By todays standards, Buxton's contract is pretty cheap. For the production he provides, Joe Ryan is a steal financially with 2 years of team control remaining before he is eligible to become a free agent.

The pair would not come cheap, but the Mets have a surplus of young bodies (Mauricio, Vientos, Baty, Acuna, Williams) for essentially third base & DH. Then you add Jeff McNeil in that positional log jam, though he is does have the defensive versatility to play the outfield. However, I doubt McNeil would be of interest to the Twins due to his age and salary. That gives the Mets lot of bodies for too few positions. And as long as McLean is in New York, then I could see moving either Tong or Sproat since the Mets getting a proven starter in return.

By adding a monetarily inexpensive quality starter to the rotation, it would free up more money for Alonso /Diaz negotiations. So I like Gwreck's WATP.....though I would prefer to keep Carson Benge out of the deal.

[Edgy MD]

Consolidation trades turn me off more than most trades.

Top-of-the-rotation starters (which Ryan only barely qualifies as) blow up as easy as anybody else. I hate to put multiple eggs into such baskets.

[smg58]

Fangraphs projects Ryan to have a 3.81 ERA this year, and Jonah Tong to have a 3.67 ERA. I'd be careful overinterpreting that, but it does suggest that there is a realistic possibility that Tong will be the better pitcher as early as by the end of next season. That tells me don't overpay for pretty good.

[metirish]

Twins are " believed to like Tong " according to Heyman

[metirish]

I would rather keep Tong than package him for Ryan

[metirish]

A quick look at Twins fans on Twitter and they hate their owners and see this as nothing but penny pinching

[Edgy MD]

Fangraphs projects Ryan to have a 3.81 ERA this year, and Jonah Tong to have a 3.67 ERA. I'd be careful overinterpreting that, but it does suggest that there is a realistic possibility that Tong will be the better pitcher as early as by the end of next season. That tells me don't overpay for pretty good.

 

Wisdom has this one.

[MFS62]

A quick look at Twins fans on Twitter and they hate their owners and see this as nothing but penny pinching

That has been the reputation of the franchise since the Griffith family moved the team there from Washington. I remember a caller to the Art Rust Jr. radio program proposing a 3-for-1 trade between the Mets and the Twins (IIRC, one of the Mets traded away was Ron Gardenhire). Art asked "Why would the Twins want those three players?" and the caller said, "They're young, they're White, and they work cheap". Rust laughed and agreed.

Later

[Gwreck]

Fangraphs projects Ryan to have a 3.81 ERA this year, and Jonah Tong to have a 3.67 ERA. I'd be careful overinterpreting that, but it does suggest that there is a realistic possibility that Tong will be the better pitcher as early as by the end of next season. That tells me don't overpay for pretty good.

 

Wisdom has this one.

 

Those projections assume that Tong makes 8 starts and throws 44 MLB innings. Ryan’s projection is for 31 starts and 182 MLB innings.

[Edgy MD]

In 2021, the Mets traded not-yet-blossomed talent for apparent present value when the sent Pete Crow-Armstrong to the Cubs for Javier Baez.

Despite two months of some of the best baseball of Baez' life, the team failed to stem their fall, and Baez moved on.

In 2025, the Mets found themselves without any obvious answer in centerfield, while Pete Crow-Armstrong was putting up a six-WAR season for Chicago.

They tried paper over that by trading not-yet-blossomed talent for apparent present value in giving up three guys for Cedric Mullins.

They failed to stem their fall; Mullins left town in ignominy; and Raimon Gómez, Chandler Marsh, and Anthony Nunez may never make much of a splash, but they have their whole lives in front of them.

I think we become emotionally attached to the present moment, and feel like we need to solve all problems at once, and we fail to see how quickly not-yet-blossomed talent can blossom and present value can rot. That is especially true when the metaphorical eggs of not-yet-blossomed target is frequently divided among multiple players, and the apparent present value all resides in the single basket of one man's arm, upon one man's UCL.

Give me the allegedly unproven talent base every time.

[MFS62]

All metaphors aside, at some point you've got to trust your scouting and player development departments.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't know. I'd take Tom Seaver over Steve Henderson, Doug Flynn, Pat Zachry, and Dan Norman. Sometimes the team that gets the prospects gets the better part of the deal, but sometimes the advantage goes to the team that gets the veteran.

I'm glad I'm not the one who has to make these decisions.

[MFS62]

I don't know. I'd take Tom Seaver over Steve Henderson, Doug Flynn, Pat Zachry, and Dan Norman. Sometimes the team that gets the prospects gets the better part of the deal, but sometimes the advantage goes to the team that gets the veteran.

 

 

And then there's the John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander type trade that ends up working out for both teams.

Like Ben, I can see both sides of the issue. Who knows?

Later

[Edgy MD]

All metaphors aside, at some point you've got to trust your scouting and player development departments.

Later

 

Well, indeed, that is the shorter and less tedious way of saying it.

[Edgy MD]

I don't know. I'd take Tom Seaver over Steve Henderson, Doug Flynn, Pat Zachry, and Dan Norman. Sometimes the team that gets the prospects gets the better part of the deal, but sometimes the advantage goes to the team that gets the veteran.

I'm glad I'm not the one who has to make these decisions.

 

I would sell my Kiss dolls to be the one to make those decisions.

[Centerfield]

Edgy. You and I would make terrible GMs. We'd never make a single trade, and our starting rotation would lead the league in IP every year. We'd also be at least six times as good as Jeff Wilpon/Brodie Van Wagenen.

As for Joe Ryan. I don't think I've ever seem him pitch. His numbers look just meh. Good WHIP I guess.

[Fman99]

I want Tong 100 times out of 100 over Joe Ryan.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I suppose that just because he's the Twins' ace it doesn't make him a Viola or a Santana.

I think there may have been a time when Mark Bomback was considered the Mets' ace. Maybe Kevin Kobel too!

[DocTee]

And just like that, mlbrtaderumors.com suggests the Twins will keep Joe Ryan AND Bryan Buxton....

I for one, would've welcomed them both.

[The Hot Corner]

What Gwreck mentioned and I expounded upon, was not a Ryan for Tong straight up deal. It also provided a significant upgrade to CF position while dealing from an excess of youngsters with too few spots available to them.

Ryan for Tong straight up, I would consider based on the advice of the organizations scouts, but I would be less excited about that one for one.

We can all cite trades of young developing players for established veterans that did not pan out (and the opposite is also true). Just like we can all cite young talent that blossomed when given the opportunity (David Wright, Jose Reyes, and looking promising, Nolan McLean ), we can likewise cite young talent that never came to fruition (Generation K - Bull Pulsipher, Jason Isringhausen, and Paul Wilson) immediately comes to my mind.

[The Hot Corner]

As DocTee posted, the Twins decided to keep their best players in the fold. Not too surprising, considering the production that got from the two of them for their relatively inexpensive contracts.

[MFS62]

Where there's trade smoke there may be fire.

Maybe they're saying that to raise the ante or increase the return.

I don't think this is a dead issue yet.

Later