The Pete Alonso Conundrum

[Frayed Knot]

One idea would be to move Vladdy back to 3B where he played in his first season and occasionally since.

So you've got Pete, Vlad, and Santander to cover 1st, 3rd, RF, and DH

Vlad's a FA after this coming season so it's a short term fix.

[batmagadanleadoff]

One idea would be to move Vladdy back to 3B where he played in his first season and occasionally since.

So you've got Pete, Vlad, and Santander to cover 1st, 3rd, RF, and DH

Vlad's a FA after this coming season so it's a short term fix.

 

It's definitely not a smooth fit. And for all of that, I don't see Toronto blowing away the Mets offer. As was already discussed, is Alonso really gonna choose Toronto over NY for a little bit more money? And it's like 10-15 degrees colder there at the beginning and end of the season. We get rain-outs. Toronto gets snow-outs. It's the coldest weather city in all of baseball. The stadium's indoors but Pete and his family still have to live there.

[Centerfield]

It's tough to know what Toronto will do. It's said they are desperate, and desperate teams do crazy things. And that's why they remain a threat.

But let's assume for the sake of discussion that they are logical. They just gave Anthony Santander a 5 year, $92.5M deal. Per Ken Rosenthal, that deal has $61.75M deferred! For CBT purposes, the union views the present value at $68.6M ($13.7 AAV). One would think that the Blue Jays would not be willing to spend more than this on Pete, given that Santander is a switch hitter, coming off a better season, plays OF (better positional fit), and is about 20 lbs lighter. And, of course, discussions with Pete are taking place after the Jays have already secured Santander. So logically, Toronto would not sign a player, then offer a similar, but lesser, player significantly more money.

$68.6M is obviously less than the 3 year/$70M offer the Mets were rumored to extend to Pete (no deferrals in the Mets offer). Also, Toronto has higher taxes. So Pete would take a hit there as well. So as of now, even if Toronto extended the same offer to Pete as they extended to Santander, Pete would have to take less money to leave the Mets.

So really, there are only a few scenarios where Pete leaves to play for the Blue Jays.

Scenario One: This is what I led with. Toronto does something crazy and offers Pete a significantly better deal than they just gave Santander. Five year deal, no deferrals, higher AAV. If that happens, then Pete is gone.

Scenario Two: The Blue Jays offer Pete a similar deal to Santander (with deferrals). But Pete/Boras accept it because it's five years and has a higher gross number. It allows Pete/Boras to save face and say that Pete beat the Mets offer both in length, and in total money, even if it means less in actual money to Pete.

I don't really see Scenario Two as realistic. So basically, it all comes down to whether Toronto goes a little crazy or not. Fingers crossed.

[batmagadanleadoff]

We get rain-outs. Toronto gets snow-outs. It's the coldest weather city in all of baseball.

 

Correction: they used to get snow-outs. The stadium's domed. Still, it gets very cold there. The weather doesn't care that you might live in one of the nicest houses in the city.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

They actually don't get much snow as cities located on Great Lakes go, for whatever reason. Buffalo gets a ton more for example. And there's dense luxury living where Pete would barely have to leave his home to go play, or just get ubers directly from his heated parking garage. It's a paradise up there I'm telling you.

The only reason Pete would prefer here to there is because he voted for the wrong candidate

[Cowtipper]

Pete waiting this long to sign reminds me of what Ian Desmond did a few years ago, then he had to settle on a cruddy contract.

I don't think Pete realizes that he's not as good as he thinks he is, yet.

[Buck4Prez]

Saw this on bluesky yesterday, someone posted the Cespedes deal. 3/75, 9 years ago. Pete's was a better hitter even last year than Cespedes was in his career to that point. With inflation that's probably more than the Mets are rumored to be offering Pete, or that Pete asked for. I can't keep track of which rumor is which.

Longer this goes, the longer I think he returns. Unless somebody gets injured and opens up a season-long hole at first base somewhere else, something unlikely to happen in the offseason.

[whippoorwill]

The longer this goes, the more I think he’s going to be an unsigned free agent wondering what the hell happened

[batmagadanleadoff]

Seven moves Jim Bowden would like to see made right now:

 

4. 1B Pete Alonso and Mets: Finalize a short-term deal

It’s time for the Mets and Alonso to reunite. He should take the best short-term deal they’ve offered with opt-outs. The first base market collapsed for Alonso early in the process when the Astros signed Walker, the Diamondbacks traded for Josh Naylor, the Guardians inked Carlos Santana, the Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt, and the Pirates traded for Spencer Horwitz.

Apart from the Mets, that left the Giants, who have spent their available money on shortstop Willy Adames and starting pitcher Justin Verlander, and the Blue Jays, who signed Anthony Santander instead (though they do still have money left to spend). The Mariners have the biggest need at first base, but don’t have the dough, apparently, to address it.

The Blue Jays could end up making Alonso the best long-term offer and opt to move Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to third base. That would help protect them if they can’t extend Guerrero before he reaches free agency. But Alonso’s best fit remains with the Mets, and they need him to protect Juan Soto in their lineup. How in the world can they drop $765 million on Soto and then lose Alonso over a few million dollars? It makes no sense. Get it done, Mets!

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6085178/2025/01/24/mlb-trade-signing-extension-scenarios/

[Bob Alpacadaca]

The Mets might have told Pete, "Go out and get the best deal you can, then bring it back to us." Other teams might think that and not want to get used. In the absence of other offers, he might just need to take what the Mets are offering.

[Centerfield]

The Blue Jays rumors were flying yesterday. Tim Healey from Newsday and Andy Martino both reporting various degrees of progress. Martino going as far as to say talks were on the "10 yard line". That pretty much got shut down with the Jays' beat writers Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith shutting it down by saying there was no momentum and nothing was close.

Today, Pat Ragazzo from SI says that Pete Alonso met with the LA Angels.

I wonder if the Angels rumor suggests that the Blue Jays leak is a dead end. Again, I go back to the real money breakdown of the Santander contract. Will Toronto really offer significantly more money to Alonso than they did to Santander?

[MFS62]

Will Toronto really offer significantly more money to Alonso than they did to Santander?

 

This is what Santander is getting:

$68,558,879/5 plus option

Signing Bonus - $13.5M, $6.75M deferred

$13.5M, $10M deferred- 2025

$16.5M, $10M deferred - 2026, 2027

$14.75M, $10M deferred - 2028

$12.75M, $10M deferred - 2029

Club option 2030 $15M, $5M buyout, deferred

They can still afford Pete.

Later

[metirish]

https://nypost.com/2025/01/24/sports/mets-told-mark-vientos-brett-baty-to-work-out-at-first-base/

Sherman says the Mets have told Baty and Vientos to start working out at 1st Base

[kcmets]

It's just getting stupid, should have been over weeks ago.

Maybe Pete doesn't want to be a Met. Maybe when he signs

elsewhere he'll bathe in martyrdom for two weeks. Maybe the

news will come at 9:00 tonight that he's a Met.

I could be Joel Sherman Et al, unfortunately I do it pro bono.

[whippoorwill]

Maybe Pete will be opening a beer distributorship this summer

[Lefty Specialist]

I think Pete wants to be a Met. What I think happened is that the Mets offered the moon to Soto. Boras and Alonso were probably expecting something a little more generous than they're being offered right now. The hamster wheels at the Boras organization are spinning furiously right now trying to drum up anything that'll move the Mets upward. The Angels! The Blue Jays! The Giants! Thus far, it's failing.

On the other side, little things are slipping out, hence the 'maybe they'll trade for Torkelson' or 'Vientos and Baty seen at Dick's buying first baseman's gloves' stories. Both sides are playing the game right now.

I think a deal gets done, but there'll need to be some face-saving here. Maybe some deferred money or something to bring the value up. Or one of Steve Cohens NFT's or a new set of Hankook tires, I dunno.

[metirish]

I'm skeptical, if Pete wanted to be a Met he would have signed when given the opportunity?

[Benjamin Grimm]

[Centerfield]

I just saw a clip of a panel at Amazin Day hosted by Gary Cohen. It had Stearns and Cohen sitting at it. The crowd was chanting “We want Pete”.

[Centerfield]

Wow. Steve Cohen just eviscerated the structure of the demand from Alonso/Boras. Called it asymmetric against the team.

I have no idea what he’s objecting to but he made it clear he’s not bending on that.

Sounds like he feels he made a fair offer to Pete and Pete will have to accept it if he wants to come back.

[MFS62]

The other day I read a comment about Stearns that said he undervalues first basemen. The person said that if you look at the rosters of his Milwaukee teams, he spent on other positions and pitching and his first basemen weren't costly. I haven't checked that but it seems to be consistent with what we've heard about the negotiations.

Later

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Maybe we should be talkin bout Spencer Torkelson

[batmagadanleadoff]

I think Pete's in a tough bind. His best opportunity to get a better offer, I think, was at the beginning of the off-season, when there were more than a half a dozen teams looking for a solution at first base. With so many teams in the hunt for a first baseman, the thinking would've been that to get Alonso, a better offer would've had to have been extended to win out over all of the competition for Alonso. That market and that dynamic doesn't exist anymore. Pete's current market has been reduced to the Mets and a few other teams that either don't have a smooth opening within which to fit Alonso or don't have the money that Boras is presumably asking for.

[metirish]

Wow. Steve Cohen just eviscerated the structure of the demand from Alonso/Boras. Called it asymmetric against the team.

I have no idea what he’s objecting to but he made it clear he’s not bending on that.

Sounds like he feels he made a fair offer to Pete and Pete will have to accept it if he wants to come back.

 

I saw that , wow , he sounded like a man that has moved on

[batmagadanleadoff]

Wow. Steve Cohen just eviscerated the structure of the demand from Alonso/Boras. Called it asymmetric against the team.

 

Just finished reading that piece. Here's the link:

https://nypost.com/2025/01/25/sports/brutally-honest-steve-cohen-prepared-for-mets-life-without-pete-alonso/

If Boras's demand is so outrageous (and I tend to believe the Mets more so than Boras), I don't get why the Mets haven't disclosed the details of the Boras/Alonso demand.

I totally get Cohen's resistance if Boras's demand truly is asymetrical; that is, if it's higher than what Boras would demand from the other teams. Cohen has to take a stand and demonstrate that he's not gonna pay free agents whatever the hell they ask for just because he's baseball's wealthiest owner and can afford it. It's a matter of self-preservation and besides that, there are still luxury tax penalties to contend with even if Cohen can afford to pay Alonso 100 times what he's asking for.

[Centerfield]

If Boras's demand is so outrageous (and I tend to believe the Mets more so than Boras), I don't get why the Mets haven't disclosed the details of the Boras/Alonso demand.

 

 

Right? This is why I think all of the info that's come out these last few weeks is straight from the Boras camp. If anything came from the Mets, they would have leaked the Boras demands that are outrageous (or at least, what they view as outrageous) and then all public sentiment would have swung back to the Mets.

Here's what I think happened. The Mets don't leak. They don't comment on ongoing negotiations other than giving the stock response they've decided was appropriate. "We love Pete. We made a fair offer. We haven't moved away from him. We hope he comes back to us." This is what he said at the MLB event on Wednesday, and this is the answer David Stearns gave when asked today.

But Cohen seemed agitated when he sat down for the panel and the crowd was chanting "we want Pete". Then, when asked, David Stearns gave the stock answer, and the crowd booed him. And I think Cohen got pissed. I think he looked at the crowd, and he thought "You know, maybe that Boras propaganda is working more than I thought". So he decided to go off script and counterpunch.

His answer was much more honest and confrontational and provided a lot more info than Stearns' answer, which preceded his answer by just seconds. He basically said yes, we want Pete back. But his offer sucks and it's unfair. And I'm not doing it. I love that he said this was his personal feeling, and didn't use the royal "we". I think this was intentional so that everyone who's been saying "Cohen is going to have to step in" got the message loud and clear. And I think he left no doubt that if Pete wants to come back, he's going to have to change the structure of the offer. He did say he would be flexible. And he did leave the door open, but it was clear he's not doing the deal on the terms presented to him.

Then he added the piece about the expenses. He said he's adding players to this very expensive team. And as time goes by, there may be no room to bring back Pete. It's the first time he's ever said anything along those lines. Stearns have obviously never said anything like this. And I think that was his message to Pete and Boras. The offer's not going to be there forever. So go ahead and look. But he's done being patient.

And then the crowd cheered. I wonder if Boras heart dropped when he heard that.

For the record, I don't believe Cohen when he says that there may not be room in the budget for Pete later on. But I think he had had enough, and decided it was time to send a message.

[batmagadanleadoff]

If Boras's demand is so outrageous (and I tend to believe the Mets more so than Boras), I don't get why the Mets haven't disclosed the details of the Boras/Alonso demand.

 

 

Right? This is why I think all of the info that's come out these last few weeks is straight from the Boras camp. If anything came from the Mets, they would have leaked the Boras demands that are outrageous (or at least, what they view as outrageous) and then all public sentiment would have swung back to the Mets.

Here's what I think happened. The Mets don't leak.

 

I think the Mets are being extremely courteous to Boras rather than that the Mets are supposedly discrete. Maybe they're thinking long term, being that Boras represents so many top players and the Mets intend to compete for future top-tier free agents. This is not the most logical answer. Boras isn't going to reject a Mets offer that tops all others just because of a past slight or disagreement. Besides, he's ethically obligated to pass along all offers to his client(s). But I cant figure out what the downside is to disclosing Boras's demand here. Maybe so as not to further embarrass Alonso, who's already had to swallow an enormous amount of humble pie this off-season. No team think he's as good or as valuable as he thought he was. And with Soto coming on board, it definitely won't be Alonso's team anymore, assuming that Lindor hadn't already taken over that role.

[Centerfield]

So after Cohen's adamant rejection of the structure of the Alonso deal, Boras fired back yesterday through Will Sammon.

 

Pete’s free-agent contract structure request are identical to the standards and practices of other clubs who have signed similarly situated qualifying-offer/all-star level players,” Boras said. “Nothing different. Just established fairness standards,"

 

Speculation is that the deal presented by Boras to the Mets is similar to that of Cody Bellinger. In addition to having opt-outs after every year, that contract provides that the club is responsible for buyouts if the player elects to leave.

Bellinger's deal contained a provision that if he opted out after 2024, the club owed him an additional $2.5M. If Bellinger opts out after 2025, the player is owed an additional $5M.

It's not hard to see why Cohen would have an issue with that kind of structure. It's mind-boggling to have to pay a buyout when the player elects to leave. And not surprisingly, the Cubs found themselves having to unload that contract this winter.

Again, this is just speculation, but if that's true, I can see the Mets holding firm and refusing to accept that. On the other hand, if Boras removes that "pay to leave" feature, I can see public pressure swinging back to Pete's side to give in more on the AAV.

Maybe I'm an idiot, but I'm still optimistic. I think Cohen's visible frustration yesterday shows how much he wants Pete back. And I think Boras' immediate response suggests that Cohen's words had the intended effect. I think they're still each other's best option.

[Edgy MD]

However rich you are, it's operating against your own interests to give a player an incentive to exit a contract.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I wasn't sure what Cohen mean by "asymetrical" . I thought Cohen meant that Alonso's demand to other teams (like the Blue Jays, I guess) was different, less expensive than the demand made to the Mets. But now it seems that the gripe is that Alonso's demand differs from the demand(s) of other player(s).

I don't see what's wrong with that and if that's the case, I don't side with Cohen and the Mets. Each player is unique and presents his own unique sui generis case.