The Pete Alonso Conundrum

[Edgy MD]

Receding hairlines are actually a pretty good indication of excess testosterone, as any casual observation of pro wrestling might indicate.

But yes, it goes without saying that, if the Mets don't sign him this offseason, they should probably find somebody that's pretty good. Whether that means a particular goodness in RBI situations is a narrow definition of that, and it certainly doesn't describe late model Pete Alonso.

[MFS62]

No, it is what I would want if they had to replace him, whether it describes the latest version of Alonso or not.

Later

[metirish]

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[Frayed Knot]

Well then, that all makes this winter quite the conundrum, doesn't it?

[metirish]

Right , i didn't know about his close ties to Queens , first time hearing about it

[Edgy MD]

It's not too cynical, I hope, to suggest that a contract push the day after a dramatic homer is a strategic time to flip that card.

I mean, the essay is from two years ago, but The Athletic chose to relaunch it in a timely manner.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think he'll be one of those players, like Snell and Montgomery and Martinez this year, who remain unsigned until March. And by then the Mets will have moved on.

That's my prediction, not my desire. I want him to stay with the Mets and be the player he was just a couple of years ago.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

I think the Mets will want to keep him. They can do what they did with Nimmo - let him make the rounds, talk to teams who are interested, get the best number then come back to the Mets and see if they'll match or top.

It might be less than the number he's looking for, but at least he'll know what his value is on the market. The danger is all it takes is one owner to go nuts and the Mets tell Pete to take it.

[Lefty Specialist]

That incredible home run notwithstanding, I would not be heartbroken if Pete signed with a team outside the division. I think he (and Boras) will be looking for too many years at too much money. JMO, YMMV.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I think he's gone. I think that some other team will give him the money, more or less, that he's asking for. It only takes one owner. He's an all- star and presumably, a big draw, a marquee name. And some team will be looking to make a big splash with their fans after coming off a disappointing season and so will pay Alonso what he wants. But it won't be the Mets. I think that Stearns will evaluate Alonso in a cold and calculating manner, very much devoid of all of the emotional attachments at play here and the gap between what the Mets offer and what some other team offers will be too large for Alonso to stay here.

Me personally, I have no idea what I prefer.

[metirish]

Pete is exactly the type of player the Giants sign

[ashie62]

Just they the newly signed Matt Chapman at third for SF

[rchurch314]

I think he's gone. I think that some other team will give him the money, more or less, that he's asking for. It only takes one owner. He's an all- star and presumably, a big draw, a marquee name. And some team will be looking to make a big splash with their fans after coming off a disappointing season and so will pay Alonso what he wants. But it won't be the Mets. I think that Stearns will evaluate Alonso in a cold and calculating manner, very much devoid of all of the emotional attachments at play here and the gap between what the Mets offer and what some other team offers will be too large for Alonso to stay here.

Me personally, I have no idea what I prefer.

 

I don't know if Stearns will do that or if I trust that the Mets will do that, because what it might reveal about his (slightly) lower valued season might reveals flaws in their own process. Will they see those, or will they be blind to their own issues?

Boras is going to have a binder full of stuff.

Bat speed is still elite.

Still crushes balls.

Doesn't have a terrible chase rate.

Doesn't have a terrible K rate.

It's a pretty easy sell that different coaches pitching a different approach would maximize something the Mets aren't.

 

Pete is exactly the type of player the Giants sign

 

Pete has elite power. A team like the Giants could probably capitalize on getting that raw power and making it work in a pitcher's park, much like the Mets do and would.

The flaws are the same flaws they've always been. He's a 1-dimensional DH and teams are very aware of what value that brings.

[ashie62]

You could keep Pete and jettison McNeil somehow

[Bob Alpacadaca]

If the Mets lose out on Juan Soto, I can see where they would be sure to lock up Pete. But if they sign Soto and sign him early, Pete might not be as valuable to them. Edited October 6, 2024 by Bob Alpacadaca

[Edgy MD]

You could keep Pete and jettison McNeil somehow

 

Or you could keep Alonso and McNeil.

I'm not really sure why one is particularly relevant to the other.

[Centerfield]

Joel Sherman says that Pete turned down a 7 year, $158M extension from the Mets in 2023. If he had accepted that deal, deducting the $20,500,000 he made this year, it would leave 6 years, $138M ($23M/year). A 6 year deal would take Alonso into his year 35 season. Pete was allegedly looking for an 8-10 year deal, which I guess would now be a 7-9 year deal.

Spotrac estimates his value at 6 years, $174 M ($29M/Year). I'm guessing this would be the upper limit of how high Stearns is willing to go, if it's even that high.

I dunno. I don't feel great about this one. I think he's likely gone.

[metirish]

Wow ,I am not sure Pete will get a better deal than the one he turned down , maybe similar $$ for 5 years/$138m ?

[Frayed Knot]

As this past season was playing itself out I was thinking that Pete was likely costing himself money by going FA this year as opposed to signing L-T before it.

That's all theoretical at this point especially since he only had one employer with which to negotiate last winter. But I suspect there might be fewer potential

suitors this winter and/or that those that do kick his tires will be a bit more reluctant to bid as high or as long.

Here's the chart I started this thread with nearly two years ago updated to include the past two seasons, and I doubt there's even any back of the

ballot MVP votes for Pete this year.

The good news for Pete is that he's not getting appreciably worse. On the other hand he's not getting any better either which implies that everyone

has already seen his high water mark and that there's only one direction to move from there at a pace still to be determined.

The initial comparison to Ryan Howard is no longer particularly relevant except to point out how pre-FA Pete never hit the heights of Howard, or those

of other slugging corner 1Bs such as Freddie, Miggy, Albert, Votto, Goldschmidt etc. [avg age 29 OPS+ = 154.5]

 

[td]AGE[/td]	[td]Ryan Howard[/td]	[td]OPS+[/td]	[td]Pete Alsonso[/td]	[td]OPS+[/td]
[td]24[/td]	[td]39 ABs[/td]	[td]122[/td]	[td]ROY-1, MVP-7[/td]	[td]147[/td]
[td]25[/td]	[td]88 G, ROY-1[/td]	[td]133[/td]	[td]Covid Season[/td]	[td]122[/td]
[td]26[/td]	[td]MVP-1[/td]	[td]167[/td]	[td][/td]	[td]133[/td]
[td]27[/td]	[td]MVP-5[/td]	[td]145[/td]	[td]MVP-8[/td]	[td]146[/td]
[td]28[/td]	[td]MVP-2[/td]	[td]125[/td]	[td]MVP-17[/td]	[td]123[/td]
[td]29[/td]	[td]MVP-3[/td]	[td]141[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]123[/td]
[td]30[/td]	[td]MVP-10[/td]	[td]127[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]
[td]31[/td]	[td]MVP-10[/td]	[td]126[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]
[td]32[/td]	[td]71 G[/td]	[td]91[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]
[td]33[/td]	[td]80 G[/td]	[td]115[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]
[td]34[/td]	[td]153 G[/td]	[td]92[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]
[td]35[/td]	[td]129 G[/td]	[td]96[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]
[td]36[/td]	[td]112 G[/td]	[td]85[/td]	[td]-----[/td]	[td]---[/td]

[Frayed Knot]

And now, right on cue, comes comments from David Stearns this afternoon concerning the future of Pete as a Met:

“He’s a great Met. I hope we have him back. I think we both understand this is a process and everyone’s got their own interests.

Pete deserves to go out into the free-agent market and see what’s out there and then ultimately make the best choice for him and his family.”

So what this implies is that the team is going to let him test the waters rather than starting the bidding themselves by making a preemptive offer.

Nothing surprising there. Pete will file the day after the WS is over while the Mets monitor, as best you can in these situations, what's being offered

and how they wish to counter. And while it's possible that they've already decided to let him walk and are merely saying here what they think the

fans want to hear, I doubt their mind is made up one way or the other at this point.

https://nypost.com/2024/10/23/sports/david-stearns-makes-mets-pete-alonso-intentions-clear/

Edited October 23, 2024 by Frayed Knot

[Gwreck]

I doubt their mind is made up one way or the other at this point.

 

Agreed. And how could it be, with Soto also a free agent.

[ashie62]

RJ Anderson of CBS and his crystal ball say Pete gets 4 years for 115, ouch

[Centerfield]

MLB Trade Rumors' prediction was fairly close to this. 5 years, $125M. And in their podcast, they felt that this was on the high side.

If this is the case, I think the price works for the Mets, but maybe not the timing. As BG said earlier, Pete likely holds out, and by that time, the Mets have moved on.

[batmagadanleadoff]

RJ Anderson of CBS and his crystal ball say Pete gets 4 years for 115, ouch

it's all relative. 4/115 isn't quite Aaron Judge money but it's one heckuva score for a 30 year old man.

[kcmets]

Just offer him 5 years at $25 per and say that's that. If you want to

retire as Mr Met and get a statue sign on the dotted line. If you want

to be a Yankee or Brave or Dodger for a few mill more... sayonara...

I have no interest in this dragging on for weeks and months...

[metirish]

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This is wild , replete with drunken Irish men

[Benjamin Grimm]

My favorite scenario is one where both Pete and Soto are with the Mets next year. It seems unlikely, but hopefully not impossible.

[metsmarathon]

i keep trying to talk myself into that one, too, with sean manaea along for the ride.

[Centerfield]

i keep trying to talk myself into that one, too, with sean manaea along for the ride.

 

I don’t see any reason this couldn’t happen.

[metirish]

Pete's turn ?