Monday DH Scenarios

[Gwreck]

There are 64 possible combinations of NYM, ATL, and ARZ wins in the games Fri-Sun.



-6 cancel the games on Monday entirely: NYM and either ATL or ARZ has clinched and there is no seeding at issue.



-13 scenarios have NYM and either ATL or ARZ clinching before Monday, but seeding still undecided.



-My personal favorite: 10 scenarios have NYM clinching in advance, but the games matter to determine if ATL or ARZ gets the wild card. In 7 of these instances, NYM's seed is undecided, and in 3 instances it doesn't matter. (Should this situation come to pass, Mets need to tell MLB to pound sand, they're not going to Atlanta, and let ATL and ARZ play a tiebreaker game between themselves, flip a coin, or whatever).



-Conversely, there are 2 scenarios in which ATL clinches before Monday and the games matter to determine if NYM or ARZ gets the final wild card. In both instances, NYM would need to win only 1 of the 2 games of the doubleheader to clinch.



-19 scenarios would require NYM to win either of the 2 games in Atlanta. In 10 of those instances, they can clinch with a win in Game 1 and Game 2 is cancelled. In 4 instances, if NYM wins Game 1, Game 2 still matters to determine if ARZ or ATL gets the other wild card. In 5 instances, the second game would matter only for NYM/ARZ seeding.



-13 scenarios would require NYM to win both games on Monday. In 9 instances, second game is cancelled if the NYM loses. In 4 instances, second game would matter for ATL/ARZ seeding.



-Finally, there is 1 scenario in which NYM is eliminated before Monday: MIL sweeps NYM, ATL sweeps KC, ARZ sweeps SD.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=Gwreck post_id=171841 time=1727333289 user_id=56]
-6 cancel the games on Monday entirely: NYM and either ATL or ARZ has clinched and there is no seeding at issue.



-13 scenarios have NYM and either ATL or ARZ clinching before Monday, but seeding still undecided.



-My personal favorite: 10 scenarios have NYM clinching in advance, but the games matter to determine if ATL or ARZ gets the wild card. In 7 of these instances, NYM's seed is undecided, and in 3 instances it doesn't matter. (Should this situation come to pass, Mets need to tell MLB to pound sand, they're not going to Atlanta, and let ATL and ARZ play a tiebreaker game between themselves, flip a coin, or whatever).



-Conversely, there are 2 scenarios in which ATL clinches before Monday and the games matter to determine if NYM or ARZ gets the final wild card. In both instances, NYM would need to win only 1 of the 2 games of the doubleheader to clinch.



-19 scenarios would require NYM to win either of the 2 games in Atlanta. In 10 of those instances, they can clinch with a win in Game 1 and Game 2 is cancelled. In 4 instances, if NYM wins Game 1, Game 2 still matters to determine if ARZ or ATL gets the other wild card. In 5 instances, the second game would matter only for NYM/ARZ seeding.



-13 scenarios would require NYM to win both games on Monday. In 9 instances, second game is cancelled if the NYM loses. In 4 instances, second game would matter for ATL/ARZ seeding.



-Finally, there is 1 scenario in which NYM is eliminated before Monday: MIL sweeps NYM, ATL sweeps KC, ARZ sweeps SD.

[Bob Alpacadaca]

=Gwreck post_id=171841 time=1727333289 user_id=56]
There are 64 possible combinations of NYM, ATL, and ARZ wins in the games Fri-Sun.



-6 cancel the games on Monday entirely: NYM and either ATL or ARZ has clinched and there is no seeding at issue.



-13 scenarios have NYM and either ATL or ARZ clinching before Monday, but seeding still undecided.



-My personal favorite: 10 scenarios have NYM clinching in advance, but the games matter to determine if ATL or ARZ gets the wild card. In 7 of these instances, NYM's seed is undecided, and in 3 instances it doesn't matter. (Should this situation come to pass, Mets need to tell MLB to pound sand, they're not going to Atlanta, and let ATL and ARZ play a tiebreaker game between themselves, flip a coin, or whatever).



-Conversely, there are 2 scenarios in which ATL clinches before Monday and the games matter to determine if NYM or ARZ gets the final wild card. In both instances, NYM would need to win only 1 of the 2 games of the doubleheader to clinch.



-19 scenarios would require NYM to win either of the 2 games in Atlanta. In 10 of those instances, they can clinch with a win in Game 1 and Game 2 is cancelled. In 4 instances, if NYM wins Game 1, Game 2 still matters to determine if ARZ or ATL gets the other wild card. In 5 instances, the second game would matter only for NYM/ARZ seeding.



-13 scenarios would require NYM to win both games on Monday. In 9 instances, second game is cancelled if the NYM loses. In 4 instances, second game would matter for ATL/ARZ seeding.



-Finally, there is 1 scenario in which NYM is eliminated before Monday: MIL sweeps NYM, ATL sweeps KC, ARZ sweeps SD.

[Gwreck]

=Gwreck post_id=171841 time=1727333289 user_id=56][CROSSOUT]Finally, there is 1 scenario in which NYM is eliminated before Monday: MIL sweeps NYM, ATL sweeps KC, ARZ sweeps SD.[/CROSSOUT]

[MFS62]

I almost didn't click on this thread because I thought it might be about who should replace JD Martinez in the the lineup and I already gave my opinion in the IGT.

Let's just win out over the weekend and end this mess.



Later

[Edgy MD]

Somewhere in the MLB offices, there was somebody who foresaw all of this, hinted the notion that maybe — since the Mets and Braves both had Monday off — they should start that series a day early.



He or she was shut down before finishing the first sentence, and never spoke up again.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

good work, G



I'm scared shitless

[Gwreck]

The key thing to remember is that Arizona can easily miss out. If the Mets pick up net one game on them this weekend, Mets are in and the DH doesn't matter.



And this is an Arizona team that just lost twice to an under .500 Giants team with nothing to play for.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd be breathing a little easier if the Diamondbacks had lost yesterday.

[Chad ochoseis]

The Diamondbacks close against the Padres, and the Padres can be eliminated from the NL West division race by the Dodgers tonight.



I haven't double checked, but I think if that happens, it would be in the Padres' interest to lose their final three to the DBacks, jeopardizing only their #4 seed while probably handing Arizona a WC spot (unless the Mets sweep in Milwaukee) and forcing the Mets and Braves to go all out on Monday for the last spot.



OE: this would result in both the Pads and DBacks finishing at 91-71, with the DBacks getting the tiebreaker. So it would cost the Padres their #4 seed and home field in the first round, but could be worth it.

Edited September 26, 2024 by Guest

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

I'm for a smaller playoff field

[Edgy MD]

Huzzah! One from each league! Or zero!



The high-stakes baseball being played right now would be insane!!

[Gwreck]

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: I'm for a smaller playoff field

Exactly. 4 teams from each league was the right model.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I liked it better when it was two teams from each league, and only first-place teams qualified. But those days are gone forever.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=Gwreck post_id=171864 time=1727362689 user_id=56]
And this is an Arizona team that just lost twice to an under .500 Giants team with nothing to play for.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=171871 time=1727371210 user_id=68]
=Gwreck post_id=171864 time=1727362689 user_id=56]
And this is an Arizona team that just lost twice to an under .500 Giants team with nothing to play for.

[Centerfield]

So to get this straight.



Mets vs. Braves

Mets are currently up 1 game. Tiebreaker TBD.

Mets gain 3 games in the standings. Mets clinch. Monday doesn't matter.

Mets gain 2 games in the standings. Mets clinch. Monday doesn't matter.

Mets gain 1 game in the standings. Mets need to win 1 game on Monday.

Weekend is a push. Mets need to win 1 game on Monday.

Mets lose 1 game in the standings. Mets need to win both games Monday.

Mets lose 2 games in the standings. Mets need to win both games Monday.

Mets lose 3 games in the standings. Mets need to win both games Monday.



Mets vs. DBacks

Currently tied. Mets have tiebreaker. Mets have one less win, one less loss.

Mets gain 3 games in the standings. Mets clinch. Monday doesn't matter to the Mets

Mets gain 2 games in the standings. Mets clinch. Monday doesn't matter to the Mets.

Mets gain 1 game in the standings. Mets clinch. Monday doesn't matter to the Mets.

Weekend is a push. Mets need to win 1 game on Monday.

Mets lose 1 game in the standings. Mets need to win both games on Monday.

Mets lose 2 games in the standings. Diamondbacks clinch

Mets lose 3 games in the standings. Diamondbacks clinch

[Centerfield]

14 different combinations for the weekend.



5 scenarios. Mets clinch this weekend.

3 scenarios. Mets need to win 1 game on Monday.

6 scenarios. Mets need to win both games on Monday.



If the Mets win at least 1 game this weekend, then there are only 12 scenarios.



5 scenarios. Mets clinch this weekend.

3 scenarios. Mets need to win 1 game on Monday.

4 scenarios. Mets need to win both games on Monday.



If the Mets win a minimum of 2 games this weekend, then there are 10 scenarios.



5 scenarios. Mets clinch this weekend.

3 scenarios. Mets need to win 1 game on Monday.

2 scenarios. Mets need to win both games on Monday.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I feel like I'm on the FiveThirtyEight site.



I definitely want to avoid the scenarios where the Mets have to sweep on Monday. I don't like the odds of doing that.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Actually, I see 64 different scenarios. Over the weekend, each team can win zero, one, two, or three games.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Mets[/th]	[TH]Diamondbacks[/th]	[TH]Braves[/th]

[Centerfield]

If I'm right, and i may well not be, i think there are 64 different outcomes, but 14 different net outcomes. And the outcomes in the middle are far more likely to occur the the ones toward the ends.

[Gwreck]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Actually, I see 64 different scenarios. Over the weekend, each team can win zero, one, two, or three games.

That's what I have too.


[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Mets[/th]	[TH]Diamondbacks[/th]	[TH]Braves[/th]	[TH]Scenario[/th]

[Frayed Knot]

=Centerfield post_id=171893 time=1727384277 user_id=65]
If I'm right, and i may well not be, i think there are 64 different outcomes, but 14 different net outcomes. And the outcomes in the middle are far more likely to occur the the ones toward the ends.

[Centerfield]

So by that table, among the 64 different outcomes:



30 outcomes result in the Mets clinching outright.

18 scenarios require 1 win on Monday.

14 scenarios require the Mets to win twice on Monday.



Of those last 14 scenarios, 9 of them involve the Mets getting swept. So as long as the Mets win one game, there's only 5 scenarios out of the remaining 48 that require them to win two games on Monday.



Odds are a harder to figure out since the chances of any one result aren't exactly 50/50.

[rchurch314]

Fangraphs actually has 50/50 coin flip odds percentages.



https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/coin-flip/wchttps://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/coin-flip/wc



This favors the Mets, mostly because I think Atlanta and Arizona are projected as better teams.

[Frayed Knot]

=Centerfield post_id=171901 time=1727388038 user_id=65]
Odds are a harder to figure out since the chances of any one result aren't exactly 50/50.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Since all of the games feature good teams playing other good teams, the coin flip method may be more accurate than it otherwise would.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah.

One can argue that factoring in home field advantage (typically around 53% in baseball) should play a role.

Taking the location into account ups the home team's odds of a sweep from 12.5% to 14.9% [.53 x .53 x .53 = .148877]

and it drops their odds a being swept down to around 10.4% [.47 x .47 x .47 = 10.3823]

but you're really just playing along the margins.

[whippoorwill]

You forgot to divide that by the square root of 1645.15 and subtract the number of rolls of paper towels in all the even numbered office areas





Seriously guys relax and enjoy

[batmagadanleadoff]

You forgot to divide that by the square root of 1645.15 and subtract the number of rolls of paper towels in all the even numbered office areas Seriously guys relax and enjoy

Amen!



_______________________





The Athletic summarizes the over 1,000 NL possibilities over the last weekend (including the Dodgers and Padres) and the 64 possibilities for the three teams fighting for the last two NL playoff spots -- the Mets, Braves and DBacks.



https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5796493/2024/09/26/national-league-wild-card-mlb-playoffs-possibilities/https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5796493/2024/09/26/national-league-wild-card-mlb-playoffs-possibilities/



A few takeaways:



The Mets cannot be eliminated before Monday's doubleheader;



What would render Monday's doubleheader completely unnecessary?



There are a couple scenarios in which the National League playoff field is set and seeded by Sunday night. This would require:



• A Royals sweep of the Braves



• The Padres to take two of three from the Diamondbacks



• The Mets to win the series over the Brewers



In these cases, the Padres would host the Mets and the Brewers would host the Diamondbacks. The Braves would be eliminated.



The last time a rescheduled regular-season game after the end of the season determined playoff qualification was 1973, when the Mets won the first game of a doubleheader with the Cubs to clinch the NL East. (The second game was not played.)



Is there a chance of a mutually beneficial split?



[***]



So, is there a chance the Mets and Braves work something out to ensure both teams advance? There are scenarios where that would be the case, if both teams enter Monday with one fewer win than Arizona. However, given the decades-long rivalry between the two franchises, as evidenced by their inability to work out a better contingency plan for these last two games, it's hard to imagine either side looking at such an arrangement as mutually beneficial.



No mention of the DBacks recently losing two to the nothing-left-to-play-for Giants. (Deduct two points for critical analysis).