Let's talk about Masahiro Tanaka

[Benjamin Grimm]

Free agent starting pitcher formerly with the Yankees. Turned 32 a couple of weeks ago.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Wow he's 32? I woulda guessed 35 or 36. He's a decent option. Gained a full MPH on his fastball in 2020 and his K/9 went up by 1, too.



It's probably not his agent's pitch to other teams, but "Masahiro Tanaka: You Could Do Worse" seems about right.

[Edgy MD]

I'm interested in a rotation of Tanaka, Wacha, Matsuzaka, Bevacqua, and Billy Wagner's alpaca.

[MFS62]

His age makes him a decent option.

My only concern is his routine of pitching on a very strict schedule (IIRC it was every Sunday). I'm not sure if that would be disruptive where he is not the #1 starter and how often that would bump others from their normal pitching turns.

Later

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

I think he has an arm injury he manages instead of solving surgically like his American stud counterparts do, would be riskier and also, less risky than some. But I dunno about him.

[Frayed Knot]

He's in a similar boat to Lugo - has a partially torn UCL and is pitching with/through/despite it.

Hes not as good as when he first arrived. I suspect someone will give him front-ish money for a couple years but to me he's more a 3-ish guy going forward and I'd be cautious on the length.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

I'd rather wait and see if a decent starter gets non-tendered before going after a guy like Tanaka.

[Centerfield]

I don't know why a guy like Tanaka would rehab the UCL and have it hamper his performance and market value for the rest of his career rather than biting the bullet and having the surgery. The success rate is pretty good.



I don't know much else about him. But the UCL would concern me.

[nymr83]

I don't know why a guy like Tanaka would rehab the UCL and have it hamper his performance and market value for the rest of his career rather than biting the bullet and having the surgery. The success rate is pretty good. I don't know much else about him. But the UCL would concern me.

same here.



There is a price point where it is worth it, particularly if he is willing to be on himself and take a deal heavily laden with incentives for actually pitching or if he wants to take a 4 year deal where the Mets say "sign on the dotted line while we wheel you into surgery and basically pay for your rehab year 1"

[Edgy MD]

There's a long history of NPB pitchers doing everything they can before allowing a doctor to cut open their moneymaker.



For a long time, the best pitchers did what they could to rehab the arm, rejecting surgeries that were long in practice with MLB pitchers, believing for years that they were a few weeks of rehab away from their arm being responsive, rather than miss time recuperating from surgery.



I've got to believe surgery is more common now among Japanese pitchers (four of the top Japanese pitchers in America have gotten the TJ surgery), but they still come from a culture that challenges them to avoid it if they can, living with partial tears for as long as they can until the tear is complete.



This also connects with young pitchers in Japan getting workloads (particularly as amateurs) that haven't been seen Stateside in generations.

[Lefty Specialist]

=Centerfield post_id=50867 time=1605669378 user_id=65]
I don't know why a guy like Tanaka would rehab the UCL and have it hamper his performance and market value for the rest of his career rather than biting the bullet and having the surgery. The success rate is pretty good.



I don't know much else about him. But the UCL would concern me.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

It's a cultural thing as mentioned above. Lawyers representing insurance companies in the US often take this posture, characterizing "elective" surgery as "unnecessary" surgery.

[Centerfield]

I think Lugo will eventually regret not having the surgery. He's going to become a free agent and likely find that the UCL will scare off suitors, or at least, drive his price down.



Those lost years around 2017-2018 would have been a good time to get it done. 2020 would have been good too. Weird, shortened season during a pandemic. New, deep pocketed ownership coming in. He would have been ready by mid-2021 for a team that is likely in the pennant race.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Bad for Lugo's future earnings maybe, good for us.



You hate to be this way but one of the arguments for an efficient productive org is to develop enough guys to be able to withstand attrition and injuries and free agency, and ride the hot guys while they're hot

[smg58]

In terms of ERA+, he's comparable to what Wheeler was his last two seasons with the Mets. He would not be a bad option, and he might love the switch in ballparks. Still not sure where the market is, and whether going all-in on Bauer would preclude other frontline investments, but he's worth considering.

[MFS62]

=Centerfield post_id=50867 time=1605669378 user_id=65]
I don't know much else about him. But the UCL would concern me.