Excuses 2020

[Centerfield]

Barring a miracle, the Mets will likely fall short again in 2019. They are 15 games back of the Braves, and never really contended for the division. The have the 15th best offense in MLB, the 7th best starting staff, and the 27th best bullpen. They are 7th in the NL in terms of run differential.



But because they will fall just a handful of games short of the second wild card, my guess is we get excuses instead of effort this offseason. My predictions:



"We've already added offense. When Cespedes comes back, we expect him to return to MVP form."



"Part of the motivation for adding Stroman at the deadline was with the idea that Zack might leave this winter. So effectively, we've already replaced Zack Wheeler..."



"Something something Diaz, something something flaw in his delivery, bla blah mechanical issue, bla blah bounce back to form in 2020."



"If you look at Cano's numbers in the second half..."



"Familia was bothered by the Bennet Lesion all season. With a full winter of rest, he'll be completely healthy by spring training."

[Lefty Specialist]

"Well, we're expecting a big year from Corey Oswalt."

[nymr83]

"Darnold got mono from Familia who pitched through it all season, the bullpen will be fine"

[kcmets]

If we're predicting, I say Mickey's on a 13-game deathwatch interview and

will be shown the door shortly after the season concludes barring some

crazy-ass miracle.



There will be no 'Excuses 2020', or 20/20 for that matter. We shall see.

[Centerfield]

For the record, mine above aren't supposed to be jokes. These are things I can legitimately hear Brodie saying in December.

[kcmets]

Didn't think you were joking, just think Skip is history barring the needed miracle.

[Lefty Specialist]

=kcmets post_id=22074 time=1568673210 user_id=53]
Didn't think you were joking, just think Skip is history barring the needed miracle.

[Gwreck]

They missed a big opportunity not signing Manny Machado this offseason. They can correct it (somewhat) by signing Anthony Rendon. Act like the big market team you are.



They also need to resign Wheeler.



Bench: I'd pick up Lagares' option. You've got him, Smith, JD Davis/Cano (platoon with McNeil at 2nd/Left)?, Lowrie, and a backup catcher as the bench. Not a bad start. Find a couple more pieces for depth.



If Cespedes ever plays a game for the Mets again, great. I'll believe it when I see it.



Bullpen: I'll admit I have fewer ideas here. But relievers do seem to be plentiful and maybe we can do a better job of identifying good ones.



Add in a new manager (and I don't hate the idea of Girardi) and that to me is a playoff caliber, befitting-of-the-NY-market team.

[Lefty Specialist]

While I like Rendon a lot, McNeil has to play every day somewhere. The only place that works is at 3rd base. Cano's not going anywhere, and with Nimmo, Davis, Conforto and possibly Cespedes in the outfield, there's no place for Squirrel out there.

[seawolf17]

Lagares is a drain on the offense. It's time.



And I agree that Rendon is the catch, but I also agree there's no place to play him because of Cano.

[Ceetar]

Because the Mets fell short, I expect there will be a lot of dismissal of 'effort' and the multitude of great parts of this team for excuses about why they didn't make it. A lot of 20-20 hindsight stuff, a lot of narrative beating.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Lefty Specialist wrote: While I like Rendon a lot, McNeil has to play every day somewhere. The only place that works is at 3rd base. Cano's not going anywhere, and with Nimmo, Davis, Conforto and possibly Cespedes in the outfield, there's no place for Squirrel out there.

You left out Dom Smith.

[seawolf17]

I think you almost have to trade Dom this offseason. I just don't see where he fits. And it's too bad, because I think he's going to be a really good player.

[Lefty Specialist]

=seawolf17 post_id=22147 time=1568742904 user_id=91]
I think you almost have to trade Dom this offseason. I just don't see where he fits. And it's too bad, because I think he's going to be a really good player.

[seawolf17]

=Centerfield post_id=22065 time=1568663206 user_id=65]But because they will fall just a handful of games short of the second wild card, my guess is we get excuses instead of effort this offseason.

[batmagadanleadoff]

They should spend more money. They play in a tough division and yet their real payroll - the payroll that doesn't account for insurance covered payments to Wright and Cespedes -- is league average -- even though they play in New York City. This isn't rocket science. The Wilpons will half measure us to death next year, too, because it's what they've done practically every season. Jesus Christ. Too fucking cheap to get a third baseman befitting of a major market team so instead, they pay through the teeth for a second baseman whose inevitable decline is minutes away and move everybody else around the field like Alice in Wonderland chess pieces in the baseball equivalent of shifting your left tackle to the quarterback position.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=22155 time=1568749493 user_id=68]
They should spend more money. They play in a tough division and yet their real payroll - the payroll that doesn't account for insurance covered payments to Wright and Cespedes -- is league average -- even though they play in New York City. This isn't rocket science. The Wilpons will half measure us to death next year, too, because it's what they've done practically every season. Jesus Christ. Too fucking cheap to get a third baseman befitting of a major market team so instead, they pay through the teeth for a second baseman whose inevitable decline is minutes away and move everybody else around the field like Alice in Wonderland chess pieces in the baseball equivalent of shifting your left tackle to the quarterback position.

[Lefty Specialist]

Oof. I completely forgot about Lowrie. Boy, this team is poorly constructed.

[Vic Sage]

under no circumstances should they pick up Lagares' option. Spending $9.5m on a backup outfielder with a lifetime OPS under .660 would be crazy. And they're going to play McNeil at 3b, as long as they're still stuck with Cano. So the IF will be McNeil/Rosario/Cano/Alonzo/Ramos and the OF will be Davis-D.Smith / Nimmo / Conforto, with Lowrie, Familia and Cespedes also eating up over $50m in payroll. If they can get an all-star bat in the OF, then okay, you put Davis on the bench, trade D.Smith and put Cespedes out to pasture.



But whatever money they're going to spend, it will mostly be needed to be on pitching, but they are likely NOT going to re-sign Wheeler, and they're probably going to trade Syndegaard, leaving them with only DeGrom, Matz and Stroman in the rotation, and Lugo, Wilson, Familia, Diaz and Gsellman in the pen (along with our AAA riffraff).

[seawolf17]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Oof. I completely forgot about Lowrie. Boy, this team is poorly constructed.

Right? Your 2020 Mets already under contract, figuring on everyone being healthy:



IF: Alonso/Cano/Rosario/McNeil (Davis? Lowrie? Dom?)

OF: Conforto/Nimmo/Cespedes (Unless Ces is still hurt, in which case I guess McNeil is back out there and Davis/Lowrie are at third.)



That's not to say one of those guys won't be moved somehow. But if you move Alonso/McNeil/Conforto, you risk a fucking riot. If you trade Nimmo, you're a moron. Ces and Cano aren't going anywhere, and Lowrie has no trade value until he proves he's healthy. Whereas Rosario has value, then you have no shortstop. And Dom's coming off an injury too.



This team. (Sigh.)

[seawolf17]

Vic Sage wrote: they're probably going to trade Syndegaard, leaving them with only DeGrom, Matz and Stroman in the rotation, and Lugo, Wilson, Familia, Diaz and Gsellman in the pen (along with our AAA riffraff).

I guess if/when they do trade Syndergaard, ostensibly it's for some sort of of MLB-functioning player who slides into the rotation, hopefully.

[Vic Sage]

do you trust BVW to make that deal?

[Benjamin Grimm]

They might QO Wheeler to get one more year out of him.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: They might QO Wheeler to get one more year out of him.

They're going to QO him, and get the second rounder or whatever if/when he signs elsewhere.

[Guest 41Forever]

What do you do with Cespedes? Do you look at him in the spring and see if he has anything left? Do you work out a buyout of his contact? Do you go the Mo Vaughn route and carry him on the roster knowing there is no way he can play and collect the insurance?

[Ceetar]

why wouldn't Cespedes have anything left or be able to play?

[kcmets]

Lol, double foot surgery then steps in a 'gopher hole' and makes things

worse - and who knows how old he really is. What else could go wrong?



Probably will throw out a few vertebrae playing golf next spring.

[Gwreck]

They shouldn't sign Rendon because of playing time concerns for McNeil??? Nope.



McNeil can play 4 positions (and I bet he could play 1B too. Maybe even short also). He'll be an everyday player without a problem. His flexibility is an asset.



If there's one thing that bring a Mets fan has taught me, it's that the team always has injuries somewhere. Do I think there's a snowball's chance in hell that Cano plays 130 games next year? Nope. 120? Doubt it. 100? Wouldn't bet on it.



Conforto and Nimmo have had their injuries woes too. Not to mention Lowrie.



You sign Rendon because he's the best talent available and you need offense. If you have too many healthy players, great.



Of course I don't think they WILL do it.



As for trading Syndergaard? That's an awful idea. What would you plausibly in return that would improve the team?

[nymr83]

=Gwreck post_id=22201 time=1568782798 user_id=56]
They shouldn't sign Rendon because of playing time concerns for McNeil??? Nope.



McNeil can play 4 positions (and I bet he could play 1B too. Maybe even short also). He'll be an everyday player without a problem. His flexibility is an asset.



If there's one thing that bring a Mets fan has taught me, it's that the team always has injuries somewhere. Do I think there's a snowball's chance in hell that Cano plays 130 games next year? Nope. 120? Doubt it. 100? Wouldn't bet on it.



Conforto and Nimmo have had their injuries woes too. Not to mention Lowrie.



You sign Rendon because he's the best talent available and you need offense. If you have too many healthy players, great.



Of course I don't think they WILL do it.



As for trading Syndergaard? That's an awful idea. What would you plausibly in return that would improve the team?

[Lefty Specialist]

If they could find a way to dump Cano and Lowrie, I sign Rendon in a heartbeat.



But you have too many people at third already. Too many people in left already. No real backup SS and no real centerfielder. I know Nimmo can play it, but he's a better corner guy. It's just a really unbalanced team. And of course the bullpen is a dumpster fire.