Total Collapse of the Pen

[Frayed Knot]

With apologies to Jim Steinman



One upon a time we were soaring to heights

now we're only falling again.

Nothing else to say, total collapse of the pen





From the IGT on 6/27

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: We did it! We blew a lead in every game in this series!!

That's really only half a statement. They actually blew multiple run leads in every game of the series AND in the game prior to that.



Final game of the Cubs series with a chance to take 3 of 4 from a 1st place club

Had a 3-1 lead in the 5th. deGrom gave up 1 run, but then 3 in the 8th off Lugo killed it



Game 1 Philly:

With a 6-4 lead in the 5th the pen coughed up 3 in bottom 5, 4 more in the 6th, then another in the 8th.

Pounders and Nogosek were the culprits.



Game 2 Philly:

A 5-2 lead in the 6th -- 5 runs allowed in the 6th, mostly on Font with also Gsellman & Flexen appearing



Game 3 Philly:

A 4-0 lead in the 6th:

1 run in the 6th, then 3 in the 7th. Two of those runs charged to Vargas (though one after he left the game). Lugo, Gsellman, Diaz & Nogosek



Game 4 Philly:

3-1 lead in the 9th. Pounders & Flexen preceded Diaz who somehow surrendered 5 while getting just one out





Totals for the pen over those five games = 13-2/3 IP; 21 ER; 26 Hits; 10 BBs [ERA = 13.83 ; WHIP = 2.63]

Those numbers simply aren't possible, and yet they happened and virtually everyone in the NYM pen contributed.

I mean, I'm pretty sure Cal Koonce was un-scored upon but that's only because he's been dead for nearly 30 years.



And when Diaz exploded in that game vs the Dodgers a few weeks ago -- four runs allowed while recording just one out -- I said at the time that

not only was it the probably the worst game he had ever pitched in the Major Leagues, but that it was likely the worst game he ever would pitch.

Turns out I was wrong. Less than a month later he managed to serve up Five runs while only recording one out

He's now allowed more ER this season than he did all of last season and also more HRs (7 vs 5) in slightly more than 40% of the innings pitched.





Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

Edited June 27, 2019 by Guest

[Centerfield]

Terrific work. It really is stunning.

[Edgy MD]

Jim Steinman should be the one apologizing.

[whippoorwill]

Great work FK. Now I know I'm not imagining things

[metirish]

It is stunning how the pen has folded

[smg58]

I'm at a loss. You think it can't get any worse, and then yesterday.



It's many things, and no one thing in particular. You make the Diaz/Cano deal, and Diaz can't afford to have an ERA over 3 to make it even marginally worthwhile. But this has now gone way beyond that, and there's no good explanation for it. The same with Familia; if he were simply mediocre, you could blame Brodie for overpaying. And while we're dumping on Brodie, keep in mind that Anderson used the 2017 trade deadline to stockpile young bullpen arms. What do we have to show for it? Callaway has earned fair criticism for his handling of the pen, and he officially lost me with his treatment of Healey. But if anybody he brings in will implode anyway, how much difference is it really making? We scapegoated Eiland, but is there any evidence that he mattered in a negative way, if at all?

Edited June 28, 2019 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

Oh, I think there's at least some explanation for it.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Paying through the nose for the guy with the most saves almost never works, and paying through the nose for relievers because last year's bullpen struggled is similarly inadvisable. Bullpens and relievers are simply too unpredictable. You are much better off developing your own closers and stockpiling cheap arms



The Mets never learn this, *even though Sandy just showed them how*. Familia was one of the best closers in the game for a few years, cost nothing, and brought us back something on the trade market just before he got expensive.



So what does that fucking idiot Omar do? Pay through the nose for the same guy, and trade 2 good prospects, 1 of those acquired cheap arms, a spare outfielder for the guy with the most saves --along with an unmoveable lineup anchor lazy steroid cheat.



If it works, great. But you've introduced insane and unnecessary pressure to making it work, so when it doesn;t you're practically forced to make an ass of yourself.



Mets would have been better off keeping Swarzak, leaving Gselly as the closer and using a sliver of Cano's $$ for other cheap-ass arms

[whippoorwill]

Speaking of Eiland, he must be dancing a jig

[seawolf17]

None of us thought Familia would get hit by a bus - I loved bringing him back. And I still like Diaz and think he'll come around.



And yet -- look at the arms [CROSSOUT]Anderson[/CROSSOUT] Alderson brought back in 2017 -



Drew Smith: 60-day-DL with TJS

AJ Ramos: Was mostly terrible, and has now completely vanished

Stephen Nogosek: was good in the minors this season, but seven hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings in the bigs

Jamie Callahan: did nothing, was released

Gerson Bautista: did nothing, was dealt in Cano deal and has been terrible anyway

Ryder Ryan: 5.60 ERA in AA

Eric Hanhold: 5.15 ERA in AA/AAA

Jacob Rhame: 6.65 ERA in 44 Mets innings

Edited June 28, 2019 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

Who's Anderson?

[seawolf17]

Stupid autocorrect.

[Frayed Knot]

Even considering the whole philosophy of pen building, or with the questions of usage by the manager ...

- did anyone not believe that the grouping of Diaz, Familia, Lugo and Gsellman would *at worst* be an above-average foursome out of the pen?

[smg58]

And that Justin Wilson would at least be a serviceable LOOGY. My concern was that Brodie overpaid for what he got and the resources could have been better spent elsewhere, not that the pen would blow up like this.

[Edgy MD]

Frayed Knot wrote: Even considering the whole philosophy of pen building, or with the questions of usage by the manager ... - did anyone not believe that the grouping of Diaz, Familia, Lugo and Gsellman would *at worst* be an above-average foursome out of the pen?

You left out Wilson.



But I tend to think bullpens are volatile no matter who is in them, usage can undermine anybody, and morale can also. The best answer is to diversify your assets and deploy them thoughtfully.

[Frayed Knot]

Volatile is one thing.

Thinking that a (OK, five) man crew -- all of ages (25, 25, 29, 30, 31) to be either just entering or somewhere near the midst of their primes and without significant injury concerns (save maybe Lugo) -- will

be, again, average to above at worst, yet instead turns into DFL in the league through half a season is way beyond 'yaneverknow' status. Even missing 1-1/2 guys to injury can't begin to explain the drop-off.

Perhaps only Lugo has been as good or maybe better than expected and even that's been ruined by two dumpster fire weeks where five outings--his 2nd, 3rd & 4th games of the season and now his last two

straight--add up to 19 batters reaching (13 hits/6 BB) for 14 runs (11 ER) in just 4.2 IP. That the Mets actually won two of those five games (obviously none of the recent ones) is mainly a testament to him

entering those games with leads of seven and four runs; he was pulled mid-inning both times. All of which is enough to push his overall stats at this point over to 'NOT better' than expected.



There's volatility and then there's 'Freak Show'.

[Edgy MD]

I'm not sure what the difference between "ya never know" and "Freak show" is.



And obviously I addressed more than volatility.



Teams go out and get a top, All-Star-quality closer and he stinks up his new home all the time. Mark Davis. Heathcliffe Slocumb. Francisco Rodriguez.

[seawolf17]

Oh, absolutely. But one of Brodie's missions over the winter was to shore up the pen, and he unquestionably did that. The fact that it didn't work is some combination of injury, mismanagement, and misjudgment. The question is what percent is what.

[Edgy MD]

I'm just deliriously happy whenever I get to work "Heathcliffe Slocumb" into a sentence.



It's like cooby and "Rocco Baldelli."

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: I'm just deliriously happy whenever I get to work "Heathcliffe Slocumb" into a sentence. It's like cooby and "Rocco Baldelli."

That reminds me. I haven't said "Fuck Derek Jeter" for a while.

AHHHHH! Now I feel better.

I'm going to make it a formal part of my rehab.



Later

[smg58]

Oh, absolutely. But one of Brodie's missions over the winter was to shore up the pen, and he unquestionably did that. The fact that it didn't work is some combination of injury, mismanagement, and misjudgment. The question is what percent is what.

I'd add bad luck. I do think Familia is genuinely hurt, but I don't know what's up with Diaz. And assigning numbers is always tricky. Misjudgment: certainly, as that deal is a failure if Diaz is merely pretty good -- and maybe he'll work his way all the way up to "pretty good" by the season's end. Mismanagement: well, Diaz hasn't been overworked, and there were definitely situations where more could/should have been asked of him, but he's not pitching at a level where we can assume more favorable results if he were used better.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Oh, absolutely. But one of Brodie's missions over the winter was to shore up the pen, and he unquestionably did that. The fact that it didn't work is some combination of injury, mismanagement, and misjudgment. The question is what percent is what. I'd add bad luck. I do think Familia is genuinely hurt, but I don't know what's up with Diaz. And assigning numbers is always tricky. Misjudgment: certainly, as that deal is a failure if Diaz is merely pretty good -- and maybe he'll work his way all the way up to "pretty good" by the season's end. Mismanagement: well, Diaz hasn't been overworked, and there were definitely situations where more could/should have been asked of him, but he's not pitching at a level where we can assume more favorable results if he were used better.

Diaz might be injured. He's suddenly throwing "cement mixer" sliders -- all spin and no movement. This might be indicative of an elbow or bone chip injury that's preventing Diaz from getting that last bit of extension that makes all the difference between a devastating world class out pitch and a high school slider. And without a slider, Diaz's fastball is suddenly very hittable as well because batters can wait for it, knowing they can adjust to a flat slider. Every major leaguer can hit a fastball if they know it's coming.



https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/scouts-execs-on-mets-edwin-diaz-whose-slider-could-be-part-of-reason-for-struggles/308590992https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/scouts-execs-on-mets-edwin-diaz-whose-slider-could-be-part-of-reason-for-struggles/308590992

[smg58]

The Mets have too much invested in Diaz long-term to let him pitch through a potential injury. If there's something that needs to be checked out, cut the crap and check it out.



The article also mentions concerns with the ball, something that CF has brought up in at least one thread here. Honestly, I don't know what the league is trying to do with this ball. Attendance is not going up over this.

[whippoorwill]

Edgy MD wrote: I'm just deliriously happy whenever I get to work "Heathcliffe Slocumb" into a sentence. It's like cooby and "Rocco Baldelli."

What??

[Edgy MD]

Well, I think when a team is in the midst of a losing streak, and they use their putative relief ace once in 10 days because they haven't got a lead to protect in the ninth, they shouldn't be shocked when (a) lesser pitchers are digging deeper holes, and ( the ace doesn't have it when they finally turn to him.



I'm not blaming his failure outright on rust, but I suspect it is a factor. It seems that just about every manager I can think of, if they go three or four days without using their ace, resolve to get him into a next game no matter the circumstances, just to keep him sharp.

[Edgy MD]

Edgy MD wrote: I'm just deliriously happy whenever I get to work "Heathcliffe Slocumb" into a sentence. It's like cooby and "Rocco Baldelli." What??

You once confessed to just enjoying saying that guy's name.



A thing like that is hard to forget.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: Teams go out and get a top, All-Star-quality closer and he stinks up his new home all the time. Mark Davis. Heathcliffe Slocumb. Francisco Rodriguez.

Sure*, and if the problem were merely Diaz then you could say, as JCL has, that we were just asking for trouble by going out and buying (w/money or players) a closer on the open market

and expecting him to repeat what made him attractive in the first place. But the problem hasn't been just the closer, it's been that any logical replacement for him is currently unavailable

(Familia & Wilson), has been even worse than him (Familia), or has been at least as erratic as him if not more so (Lugsellman). That's when 'shit happens' turns into 'horror show'.





* although Frankie Rodriguez stunk up his new digs more personally than professionally

[Frayed Knot]

A quickie look at what we're getting vs what could have been reasonably expected. The career stats are those coming into this season.



So all were good, or, at worst, good-ish. All were holding steady and/or trending in the right direction through last year.

All were, and still are, under 30. Familia, the oldest, turns 30 in October.

All, save Familia, are currently healthy that we know of.

			CAREER		2018		2019
	DIAZ		2.64 / 1.02		1.96 / 0.79		4.94 / 1.42
	FAMILIA		2.73 / 1.21		2.88 / 1.23		7.81 / 1.84
	LUGO		3.44 / 1.19		2.66 / 1.08		3.60 / 1.20
	GSELLMAN		4.38 / 1.40		4.28 / 1.30		4.82 / 1.39

* Diaz is allowing base runners at 40% above his career norms and nearly double the rate as compared to last year. And then there's the ERA ...



* Familia, whose 2018 was near identical to his career norms, is currently up 50% in runners allowed while tripling his ERA



* Lugo is closest to 'normal' although his bad outings have been magnified by coming during two horrid streaks (as outlined earlier) of which we are currently in the

midst of the second [7 RA in 3 outings - 3-2/3 IP] The other was 9 Runs in 3 games over just 2-2/3 IP (Mar 30 - Apr 4)



* Gsellman, while giving up an extra 1/2 R/G, is giving us pretty much as expected as he's yet to match the promise he showed as still a 'pre-rookie' in 2016 [2.42 / 1.28]

and led BP to tab him as their #17 prospect in the winter of '16/'17

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

I stand by my unfounded assertion that Gzelly would have been an awesome closer. They sorta McNeiled him. Give him the ball and the CAHNfidence comes, he's already got the look and attitude.

[Frayed Knot]

It would require more than a small leap of faith to assume that either different usage and/or a shot of 'Atta Boy' CAHN-fidence over the last 2-1/2 seasons (2017-2019) would have mattered enough to significantly

reduce Gsellman's ERA from where it's been sitting at nearly 5.00 (4.87) or his WHIP over the same span from 1.43

The one good thing he is doing is keeping the ball in the park as he might be the rare pitcher in all of MLB whose HR numbers AND HR rate is down in 2019. As far as our staff goes, the 4 HRs off of him is fewer,

and in more innings pitched, than the 7, 5, 6 vs Diaz, Fam, and Lugo. Of the other three, only Lugo hasn't already surpassed his HR total of 2018 and even his HR rate is up (6 vs 9 in 40% of the IP)



I don't have an objection to using Gsellman as a closer when the situation dictates. I just don't want to decree it and act as if we've solved the problem.