metsmarathon

many of the hockey teams depicted are pretty bad. but the broncos, d-rays, mets, and even the braves? i... i don't get it. the d-backs and rockies are ok, but the mets are poorly dressed? and the attached quotes are just dumb.

lol.

MFS62 wrote: Point of Order. Do you want the 10 players we think are the best in each league, or the ones we think are most valuable this year? There's a difference, especially if one player was injured for most of this year, but when healthy is one of the best. edit: or, if a great player had an off year this year, but is generally one of the best. Later it's not the most talented award. "net winningest" is likely the best way to describe what i think the mvp is trying to award.

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i'm not anywhere near which is worse - frank thomas finishing fourth, or michael young finishing thirty-third... the votees, with some meaningless statisticals attributed to them: player Games IP BRAR FRAR PRAR WARP3 BWS FWS PWS WS Morneau 157 63 44 8.6 25.5 2 27 Jeter 154 73 39 12.1 28 4.6 33 Ortiz 150 88 0 9.4 29.3 0.1 29 Thomas 137 53 0 5.8 21.9 22 Dye 145 69 27 10.4 23.7 2.8 26 Mauer 140 64 34 10.6 21.3 9.5 31 Santana 34 233.67 0 4 102 10.7 -0.1 25 25 Hafner 129 88 -1 9.2 25 25 Guerrero 156 69 2 7.8 23 2.2 25 Guillen 153 60 16 8.2 21.5 4.3 26 Sizemore 162 72 25 10.7 21.8 3.7 25 Thome 143 72 0 7.8 25.9 26 Rodriguez 154 66 2 7.4 22.4 2.4 25 Giambi 139 67 -4 6.7 23.1 0.2 23 Damon 148 48 13 6.7 18.1 3.7 22 Verlander 30 186 0 0 68 6.5 -0.1 15.5 15 Suzuki 161 53 29 9 20.1 4.1 24 Nathan 64 68.33 0 -1 73 8 17.1 17 Ramirez 130 76 -3 7.7 26.9 2.1 29 Tejada 162 61 37 10.7 18 5 23 Ibanez 159 56 14 7.7 24 3.1 27 Cano 122 44 38 9 13.3 4.5 18 Konerko 152 59 13 8 20.7 1.9 23 Ordonez 155 39 14 5.8 16.9 3 20 Wells 152 55 18 8 19 6.4 25 Crawford 150 49 8 6.3 21.4 2 23 Rivera 63 75 0 2 69 7.9 13.8 14 Rogers 34 204 -1 2 56 5.5 -0.2 14.9 15 Wang 34 218 -1 5 65 7 -0.1 17.7 17 Glaus 153 44 23 7.4 12.5 3.8 16 Matthews 147 48 16 7.1 17.5 4.2 22 Pierzynski 139 20 21 4.5 9 4.4 13 Young 162 40 55 10.6 18.5 7.7 26 young is certainly one of the ten best players in the AL, and he finishes with as many votes as AJ Pierzynski? crikey!

Willets Point Station at the Crane Pool

where's the who's who list when you need it?

singularly outlandish numbers typically trump overall better seasons in the eyes of many a voter, i think. "jeez, the guy hit 58 home runs! how could he not be the MVP?"

okie dokie. if all the participants can name a LZ for piazza before the week is up, and before he signs anywhere, i'm sure i can supplant casey with him. i'll kick things off by naming the dodgers.

="metirish"]] MTA could sell name rights to Shea stations THE ASSOCIATED PRESS November 21, 2006, 8:01 AM EST Transit officials hope to profit from the record-breaking sale of naming rights for the New York Mets' new ballpark by offering to change the names of nearby stations, according to a spokesman. Metropolitan Transportation Authority officials plan to negotiate with Citigroup Inc., which is reportedly paying an average of more than $20 million annually to name the Queens stadium Citi Field, spokesman Tom Kelly told the Daily News for Tuesday editions. Two stations carry the name of the current arena, Shea Stadium. One is a stop on the Long Island Rail Road, the other is on the 7 subway line. MTA Chairman Peter Kalikow had previously ruled out renaming landmarks like Grand Central Terminal, but board member Mitchell Pally said the move was a reasonable step to prevent fare increases. Gene Russianoff, staff attorney for the Straphangers Campaign, argued that sales of naming rights could go too far. "What's next? Will we give riders directions to take the Bayer Aspirin IRT to Walt Disney's Times Square and then switch to the McDonald's 7 line to the Citigroup stop in Queens -- which also happens to be the stop for the Mets Stadium?" he asked. A spokeswoman for Citigroup did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Citi Field deal set a record for U.S stadium naming rights, topping the approximately $10 million annually the NFL's Houston Texans receive from Reliant Energy to call their home Reliant Stadium. The new $800 million stadium is being built next to its predecessor. The 45,000-seat ballpark is set to open in 2009. jeez... next thing you know, we'll have corporate names on all of our favorite buildings. they'll have the Chrysler building, the Sears tower... even our parades will be stricken! are you ready for a Macy's{/i] thanksgiving day parade?

(edgy, you mean win shares, right, and not WARP?) the best i can do is say that i agree with you. howard and pujols were close enough with their bats to make the difference in playing time bring them to about a draw, offensively. at least based on everything i can really look to to tell a difference between the players. since there are no real baserunning stats other than SB & CS, its hard to say how much better a baserunner albert is than howard, and i'd guess hat its not enough to make up for the difference in win shares. ditto the strikeouts versus GIDP difference between the players. as near as i can tell, there's not much difference between albert pujols and ryan howard, offensively. defensively, howard has a much lower fielding percentage and zone rating, and since those are about the best metrics we have in fielding measurement, other than our eyes, he's nowhere near as good as pujols. according to baseball prospectus, there's a 32 run difference between ryan howard at first and albert pujols. according to win shares and the hardball times, there's less than half a win difference between the two players' glovework. it makes no sense to me. the one thing i can take away from almost all of this is that albert pujols is at least as good if not better both offensively and defensively than ryan howard, and he's somehow not the mvp. ... based on the hardball times' figurings... prince fielder is the second best firstbaseman in the NL, and delgado is about 6th best, just ahead of todd helton. BP's figurings on wins above replacement players may have me scratching my head sometimes when it comes to defense, but when i compare them to win shares, it seems like i like their results better.

i have him underlined cos i don't know how to do a strike through. as he who started the thread stated, if he signs before the ballots close, he don't count either way.

playerbattingfieldingpujols36.32.4 beltran30.08.3howard29.81.2 howard gets killed on hitting, per win shares. if i were to guess, i'd blame that on the hitter-friendliness of his home park - its about the only thing that maybe makes sense CBP was rated as a 103 park factor for hitters, BS3 was a 98, and SS was a 95. so howard is going to get de-rated for hitting in those friendly confines. that, and perhaps win shares needs to do a better, or smarter, job of looking at defense. for a first baseman, this is what gets looked at, in order of decreasing importance First Basemen: Plays Made, Errors, Arm Rating and Errors by third basemen and shortstops maybe that doesn't adequately capture the real difference between howard's and pujols' glove work??? ... fwiw, baseball prospectus' WARP3 shows pujols at 12.9, beltran at 11.8, and howard way down at 9.4, and the biggest difference there is his glove.

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the runs created stat gives howard an edge over pujols, 150-140, or thereabouts. i'm sure howard's defensive liabilities cut into his lead as far as an overall better player goes. and if howard got any additional votes over pujols for playing for a team in contention late in the season, that's just unfailingly dumb. for so many many reasons. win shares show pujols with a slim lead, 39-38 over beltran, and a wide, wide margin over howard, who sits 6th in the NL with 31 win shares.

well, smg left him blank. hence my question mark thingy. ditto sharpie's nomar prediction.

here's the matrix of participants, as i see it... NEW TEAM metirish sharpie DocTee Nymr83 smg58 metsmarathon cleonjones11

when do these close? did they close this morning?

i'm cool with a year for alou. not so much with two years. it gives us backups at both corner outfield spots who will both have a good chance of permanently replacing the more highly priced vets before the season is over, and who can still provide good defensive replacementing if called on to do so. that said, one of ben johnson or lastings milledge should be starting the year in AAA, presuming we still have endy around. we will still have endy around, right?

1. Barry Bonds (SFG), OF Oakland Athletics 2. Roger Clemens (HOU), P Boston Red Sox 3. Ray Durham (SFG), 2B San Francisco Giants 4. JD Drew (LAD), OF Boston Red Sox 5. Cliff Floyd (NYM), OF Los Angeles Dodgers 6. Nomar Garciaparra (LAD), 1B Los Angeles Dodgers 7. Tom Glavine (NYM), P New York Mets 8. Carlos Lee (TEX), OF Houston Astros 9. Greg Maddux (LAD), P Los Angeles Dodgers 10. Gary Matthews Jr. (TEX), OF Texas Rangers 11. Juan Pierre (CHC), OF Anaheim Angels 12. Jason Schmidt (SFG), P St. Louis Cardinals 13. Barry Zito (OAK), P New York Mets 14. Mark Loretta (BOS), 2B San Diego Padres 15. Trot Nixon (BOS), OF Texas Rangers 16. Sean Casey (DET), 1B Detroit Tigers 17. Shannon Stewart (MIN), OF Oakland Athletics 18. Craig Wilson (MFY), IF San Francisco Giants 19. Steve Trachsel (NYM), P Seattle Mariners 20. Jay Payton (OAK), OF Boston Red Sox 21. Gil Meche (SEA), P Philadelphia Phillies 22. Vincente Padilla (TEX), P Chicago Cubs 23. Ted Lilly (TOR), P St. Louis Cardinals 24. Alfonzo Soriano (WAS), OF Chicago Cubs 25. Jose Guillen (WAS), OF Baltimore Orioles 26. Eddie Guardado (CIN), P Boston Red Sox 27. Julio Lugo (LAD), IF New York Mets 28. Octavio Dotel (NYY) San Francisco Giants 29. Moises Alou, OF (SFG) New York Mets 30. Chris Woodward, IF (NYM) Boston Red Sox 31. Randy Wolf, P (PHL) St. Louis Cardinals 32. Dave Roberts, OF (SD) San Francisco Giants 33. Woody Williams, P (SD) Houston Astros 34. Jason Marquis, P (STL) Chicago Cubs 35. Jeff Suppan, P (STL) Mother F'n Yankees

metsguyinmichigan wrote: 3) Couldn't get a job managing this season, heading instead to the Yankees' booth? did he even try? it looks like he's just waiting out joe torre for the yankees job.

um, i'd give 'em ollie perez for vernon wells.

basically, the algorithm, or any such award voting predictor, comes from teh follwing type of conversation... "who do you think will win the cy young award this year?" "i dunno. what kind of things do the voters typically look at?" "well, wins and losses. earned runs, innings pitched. usually the voters look to players with shutouts, too. high strikeout totals are important too, but they don't really look at walks." "relievers with high save totals will get some votes too. of course, there's also the standard 'played for a winner' schtick thrown in for good measure." "but what's more important? lots of wins, or not a lot of losses? and how much does playing for a winner really count for?" "well, lets try to figure that out..." when, i guess, bill james and rob neyer did this whenever they did it, they found that, all things being equal, 24 strikeouts balance out playing for a winner, and a 20-8 record is the same as a 19-5 record. or thereabouts.

its not sabermetrics. its trying to put a formula together that approximates how VOTERS have voted in the past and, assuming those voters continue to vote consistently with similar criteria (that the formula need not account for), attempt, for entertainment purposes, who the most likely player to receive the most votes will be. it doesn't try to predict who will win next year, who will be the better pitcher next year, or even who the best pitcher was this year. only who the voters of the past might have voted for this year. its very much the same as if you looked at the schaeffer voting this year and tried to figure out what a player has to do to get a certain amount of points from us cranepoolers. how much does a save get a player? a home run? how much does grounding into a double play cost? its not sabermetrics. its an attempt to replicate the outputs of a complex system through the use of a simplified mathematical framework built around a set of known inputs. modeling & simulation. it can't tell you if billy wagner was more valuable to his team, or a better pitcher, only that, based on the way voters have voted in the past, he had a pretty good chance of walking away with the award. or the predictor overvalues saves, and the most likely winner was carpenter. in fact, if i look only at the starters, it picked the winner in 04, 05, and half of 06. and i don't think its going to miss santana in the AL this year. whatever your beef is with sabermetrics, or math in general, its misplaced here.

the cy young predictor still has billy wagner as the top candidate. points are attributed as follows: wagner 156 carpenter 151 webb 147 hoffman 147 saito 138 zambrano 137 oswalt 137 smoltz 135 lowe 135 cordero 127 over in the AL, santana is predicted to win, much more convincingly, 192 to 177 over fellow twin joe nathan.