Why waste them in a tie game, one where you may ultimately never take the lead, and possibly cost yourself the opportunity to use him tomorrow (or the day after) in a save situation. I don't agree with this. That's very much my point. Why waste him by keeping him in the bullpen to preserve him for a save situation that may never come? Save situations are not by definition the highest-leverage situations. Please allow me to re-arrange both of our questions somewhat to display the parallel phrases side-by-side: QuestionerPre-amble to QuestionAmbiguity of ConditionDownsideYouWhy waste him in a tie game,one where you may ultimately never take the lead,and possibly cost yourself the opportunity to use him tomorrow (or the day after) in a save situation?MyselfWhy waste him by keeping him in the bullpento preserve him for a save situation that may never comewhile progressively lesser and lesser players toil for the win? Let me first address the Ambiguity of Condition situation. While both of these situations are fraught with ambigutity, his presence curbs that ambiguity. You fear that the team may never take the lead, but putting him in the game increases the likelihood that they will. He provides the team with a better matchup in his innings, and while preserving better pitchers for subsequent innings should they be necessary. In my place in that column, I fear that they are holding him for a save situation that may never come. Well, his presence (and the helpful effect of the presence of better pitchers after him) increasess the chance that that save situation may come. You have to secure a lead before you can secure a save. In a game played one inning at a time, your best available pitcher is the guy to do that. In fact, giving him two innings, he can possilbly secure you both (if not statistically). Then in the Downside column, you tell of the downside being not having him available for saves the next day. Possilby But I say that now is the time of our greatest need when chips are down. Looking at the old win expectancy calculator (not, sadly, recently updated), we are reminded that save situations (one-run lead, two-run lead, three-run lead, or more if the tying run reaches the on-deck circle) tend not to be higher-leverage situations than ninth-inning or extra-inning (which is the same-thing, logically) tie situations. Those games are the games where you want your best. Those are the ones where you have the most to lose relative to what you have to win. And it's statistically supported. And here's the thing. That need of the next day or the day after that, lesser though it is, may never come at all. The need of the moment is known, and i'ts ignored. And so we're getting destroyed in extra-inning games on the road. As far as those two examples I gave from the mid-1980s, in both situations, the team had a vitally crucial game to win the next day. I really don't want to get a whole lot of radical adjustment of bullpen usage out of this thread. But I do most certainly want to get across to any who would hear that holding your closer out of extra-inning games on the road unless/until a save situation can be presented to him is a domonstrably counter-productive strategy. Very good stuff Edgy. It helps to clarify the issue a lot. My question, and the reason I am undecided on this issue, is that I'm not sure that using your best reliever in a tie game will necessarily lead to more wins than using him in a situation where you have the lead. How do we know that? If I'm understanding your win calculator link correctly, all I can tell is that a game is much more likely to go either way when it is tied, than in a save situation. But will using your closer in ties necessarily lead to more wins? After all, in tie games, you need to hold the opposition and score a run. (To illustrate this point, a tie game in the fifth inning is much more high-leverage than a one run lead in the ninth, but does that mean you should pitch your closer in the fifth inning of a 5 to 5 game?) The way I see it, if the Jerry strategy were to be justified, one would have to prove conclusively that: 1. Using your best reliever in a save situation is more effective than pitching him in tie games. 2. The difference is so great that you should hold him out of actual tie games in the event a prospective save situation should arise. In order for your thesis to be correct, you must prove: 1. Using your best reliever in tie games in addition to save situations will outweigh the negative effect of having to give a certain number of save situations to a guy who is not your best reliever. A much easier burden than Jerry has, but I'm not sure that it's been met yet. It's also possible that none of this has any effect on the number of wins and losses at the end of the day.