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smg58

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Everything posted by smg58

  1. smg58
    Williams had a bizarrely bad 55% strand rate last year, which almost has to be flukey given his peripherals were otherwise very much in line with what he's been doing. And what he's been doing puts him in the short list of the league's top relievers.
  2. smg58
    If Knight had stayed, we'd have wound up talking about how Davey waited too long to bench him in favor of Hojo. A lot of guys just weren't as good the following year. Knight couldn't have stopped Gary and Keith (or himself) from getting older, or Gooden from peaking at 20. And Iglesias couldn't have stopped our pitching staff from collapsing in a bloody heap, or Stearns from making a bunch of deadline deals that did more harm than good.
  3. smg58
    Lindor and McNeil once had a very public beef and the team won 101 games the following season. Perhaps they should fight more. On a scale of 1 to 10 on the Worry Meter, this presently ranks as a 0.
  4. smg58
    Hey everybody, We have an opening in the ottoneu league as Banco Popular has decided to move on. I wanted to announce it here first, before making it more publicly available. Let me know if you're interested and I will see about getting you set up. Please be advised, though, that this is a keeper league. The good news is you would have Bobby Witt, and a couple of pitchers who might be overpriced but are still good.
  5. smg58
    The GM of the Orioles did not spend the last two months of the season watching the Mets.
  6. smg58
    I'm not sure I like six years, but he's the best pitcher on the market and would make the 2026 Mets significantly better.
  7. smg58
    His strikeout rate with the Mets (3.29 per 9 IP) was a little concerning. I guess we'll find out if the Mets think that was flukey.
  8. smg58
    The Padres have every right to ask. But I can't imagine it would go farther than that.
  9. smg58
    The big news today was Dylan Cease getting seven years and $210M (deferments making it more like $182M) from the Blue Jays. Cease has been durable, but I don't think I would have bet seven years on that continuing indefinitely. The first major-league deal of the offseason went to former Met Phil Maton, who got two years and $14.5M with a club option for the third year from the Cubs. I expect Helsley and Rogers to get significantly more than that, so it looks like good value on paper. The other big trade involved the Cardinals sending Sonny Gray and $20M of his $35M salary this year to the Red Sox for a fairly good prospect (Fangraphs put him in the top 100 overall). That might wind up looking good in February, but I don't think I'd have pulled the trigger on a deal like that without seeing how the market was going.
  10. smg58
    The winner of this deal is Kyle Tucker, because now the Mets are in on the bidding. For comparison, look at how desperate the Cardinals are to move on from Nolan Arenado, who's a former star with declining stats and still good but not necessarily elite defense -- basically Semien, but owed less money. I guess you have to ask yourself if Nimmo's contract is that much of an albatross. I'd say not yet, but it definitely could be before it runs out. My gut is against this deal -- I've liked Nimmo for a while and still do -- but I'll try to look at it in the context of the other moves that happen this offseason.
  11. smg58
    I'd trade Senga for a legit starting centerfielder. Otherwise, I don't see much point.
  12. smg58
    I just realized I left a low-hanging fruit from the 86 team. But I'll leave it for somebody else.
  13. smg58
    Ron and Sid from the 86 team too. And Kevin Mitchell.
  14. smg58
    I'm also going to bet that Jake deGrom is on this.
  15. smg58
    Darryl.
  16. smg58
    The Mets were sufficiently well-covered in the infield that if they had any reason to think McNeil wasn't right -- and TOS doesn't strike me as something you can easily hide, especially if you abruptly stop hitting -- he should have sat. Mauricio got criminally few ABs in the last two months, playing behind a second baseman who became severely compromised in September and who had himself been returned to the infield to accommodate a new centerfielder who was simply bad. Preach, brother.
  17. smg58
    I stand by this.
  18. smg58
    His peripherals suggest things weren't nearly as bad as they look. His K/BB ratio of 6.25 was actually superb. But he had at .314 BABIP this year after a .245 BABIP last year, so luck was involved in both seasons. He also had a 19.4% HR/FB rate, which is way worse than normal and may not all be luck. Personally, I wouldn't panic. He may not be as good as his 2024 made him look, and the Mets probably overpaid to bring him back, but as long as he's healthy he'll be a pretty good part of the rotation.
  19. smg58
    I went three stars. Obviously money will never be an obstacle under his watch. But the Dodgers never seem to have to sweat out the last week of the season. Cohen has yet to demonstrate that he knows how to hire the people who'll make the most of his resources.
  20. smg58
    I'm not sure what to do about center. Taylor screams "non-tender" at me, but you'd have to be willing to go with McNeil in center (and Mauricio at second or third against righties) if you go that route. I don't think the free agent CFs are worth the trouble, but I'd be in on Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu if the Red Sox make them available because I think their gloves will work in center. Free agents who could compete with Vientos for a DH spot (or an extra righty bat in general) should not be expensive.
  21. smg58
    He has a year of options. Not knowing which prospects are Rule V eligible, I can't comment on who won't make the 40 as a result. He doesn't strike me as somebody I'd clear a roster spot for in early November, but Stearns for better or worse always makes these kind of moves.
  22. smg58
    I don't think money is an object. The bigger concern is how to keep too much of it from being eaten by hurt or bad players.
  23. smg58
    Lindor had a bit of a down year defensively, with the biggest issue being throwing. Hopefully this fixes it.
  24. smg58
    I'd be shocked if he gets traded. It would be one thing if the Tigers weren't serious playoff contenders, but I'm not sure how you sell slamming your window of contention shut a year early to your fans. That being said, it's kind of like Johan Santana. He's one of the top two or three best pitchers in baseball, so why WOULDN'T you be interested if he's actually available?
  25. smg58
    I don't know if you really need to get into a microscopic analysis of sim scores to know that the chances of Alonso's performance declining significantly over the next couple of years are high enough to advise caution. The questions that need to be asked are (a) how far are you willing to go to try to keep him, and ( what's plan B?
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