Gwreck

Hat tip to Tim Britton who reminded me of this in his weekly notes about the upcoming series against the White Sox. As we all know, in the Free Agent Compensation Draft after the 1983 season, the Mets protected 26 players, none of whom were named Tom Seaver. But do you know who they were? Easy/medium: 13 players who were on the 1983 Mets: 4 starting pitchers (Darling, Terrell, Leary, Swan) 2 relief pitchers (Orosco, Sisk) 1 catcher (Junior Ortiz), 4 infielders (Gardenhire, Brooks, Oquendo, Hernandez); 2 outfielders (Strawberry, Wilson). Hard: 9 players who had not yet played for the Mets in the majors (but would later). All stats below are from 1983. Dwight Gooden. A first-round pick in 1982. Had a 2.50 ERA and 300 strikeouts in 191 innings at Lynchburg (A) at age 18. Sid Fernandez. 21 year old acquired via trade that offseason who had a 2.82 ERA and 209 strikeouts in 153 innings at AA in the prior organization. Wes Gardner. A 22 year old reliever who had a 1.85 ERA and 15 saves in 62.2 innings at Lynchburg. Skipped AA, pitched 40 games in Tidewater in 1984 and debuted with the Mets in July 1984. Kevin Mitchell. 18 year old with 42 extra-base hits, 85 RBI, and .834 OPS in Jackson (AA). Went on to play in 3 NLCSes and accumulated 29.2 career MLB WAR. Lenny Dykstra. 20 year old with 46 extra-base hits, 81 RBI, and .975 OPS in Lynchburg. Went on to play in 3 NLCSes and accumulated 42.4 career MLB WAR. John Gibbons. A first-round pick in 1980. Has a career .501 winning percentage as an MLB manager. Terry Blocker. A first-round pick in 1981. At age 23 had a .307 AVG/.758 OPS and 42 steals between Jackson and Tidewater combined. Traded after 1987 season to Atlanta. According to Davey Johnson's book Bats, Frank Cashen told Johnson that Seaver could be re-acquired from the White Sox in 1985 for Blocker; Johnson was against the idea since it would clog up a rotation spot in 1986. Herm Winningham. A first-round pick in the January 1981 supplemental draft. An outfielder, at age 21, had .329 AVG/.406 OBP and 23 steals between Jackson and Tidewater combined. Traded after a cup of coffee with the Mets for an established player (Gary Carter) who would put up 11.4 WAR for the Mets. Stan Jefferson. A first-round pick in 1983, had a .844 OPS in Little Falls (short-season A) at age 20. An outfielder, was traded after a cup of coffee with the Mets for an established player who would put up 15.8 WAR with the Mets. Very hard/impossible: 4 players who would never reach the majors with the Mets: Floyd Youmanns. 2nd round pick in 1982. At age 19, had 23 starts in Columbia (A). Put up 3.7 WAR as a starting pitcher in 1986 (his best year in the majors) but also lead the NL in walks that season. Also traded to Montreal in the Carter deal. Dave Cochrane. 4th round pick in 1983. At age 20, had 25 homers and 102 RBI and a .837 OPS at Lynchburg. Traded to the White Sox in July 1985. Eddie Williams. A first round pick (#4 overall) in 1983. Had a .795 OPS in Little Falls (short-season A) at age 18. Traded to Reds at the deadline in 1984. Played 395 MLB games in a career that lasted until 1998 (fourth-longest among the 26 protected players). Kevin Brown. A first-round pick in the January 1983 supplemental draft. 19-year old left-hand pitcher who never made the major leagues. Was traded away by the Mets in one of the other trades referenced above.

Remaining answers in bold Highest-Leverage 1. Lenny Dykstra, 1986 NLCS Game 3 Walk-off, 73% WPA 2. Pete Alonso, 2024 NLWCS Game 3, T9/3-run homer while down 2 runs, 64% WPA 3. Edgardo Alfonzo, 1999 NLDS Game 1, T9/Grand Slam in tied game. 45% WPA 4t. Todd Pratt, 1999 NLDS Game 4 Walk-off, 42% WPA 4t. Benny Agbayani, 2000 NLDS Game 3 Walk-off, 42% WPA 6t. Francisco Lindor, 2024 NLDS Game 4, B6, grand slam while down 1-0, 35% WPA 6t. Mark Vientos, 2024 NLDS Game 2, T9. With one out, a 2-run homer to tie the game. 35% WPA. 8. Darryl Strawberry, 1986 NLCS Game 3, 3-run game-tying homer in B6, 31% WPA 9. Wayne Garrett, 1969 NLCS Game 3. 2-run homer in the bottom of the 5th. Mets went from down 4-3 to up 5-4. 29% WPA. Nolan Ryan (leadoff single, during his 7 (!) innings of relief that game) scored ahead of Garrett. 10. Carlos Beltran, 2006 NLCS Game 1. 2-run homer in the bottom of the 6th of a scoreless game. 28% WPA. Would be the only runs scored that game. Just missed the top 10: Al Weis (1969 WS Gm 5), Ray Knight (1986 WS Gm 7) —- Lowest Leverage 10. Jay Payton, 2000 WS Game 2, T9. Moved the game from 6-2 to 6-5, but happened with 2 outs in the 9th. Only 2% WPA. 9. Todd Zeile, 2000 NLCS Game 1, T9. Solo homer to take away the save situation, moved game from 3-0 to 4-0. 2% WPA 8. Ken Boswell, 1969 NLCS Game 2, T4. 2-run homer to go from 6-0 to 8-0. 2% WPA. 7. Mike Piazza, 2000 WS Game 2, T9. Moved game from 6-0 to 6-2. 1% WPA. 6. Ed Kranepool, 1969 World Series Game 3, B8. Tack-on solo homer to go from 4-0 to 5-0. 1% WPA. 5. Gary Carter, 1986 WS Game 4, T8. Added a run to make it 6-0. 1% WPA. 4. Carlos Beltran, 2006 NLCS Game 4, T7. Tack-on solo homer to go from 5-0 to 6-0. 1% WPA. 3. Jay Payton, 2000 NLCS Game 1, T9. Two batters after Zeile's homer at #9, a 2-run homer to move it from 4-0 to 6-0. 2. Daniel Murphy, 2015 NLCS Game 4, T8. Added 2 runs to make it 8–1. 1% WPA. 1. Eduardo Escobar, 2022 NLWCS Game 1, B5. Solo homer when the Mets were down 7-0 in a miserable game. Sorry Eduardo, someone's got to be last on the list. 1% WPA.

For all of Stearns’ missteps, we can note that (1) acquiring Torrens (for nothing more than cash) and (2) extending Torrens are looking good.

It probably also doesn’t help that there are a large number of not-particularly-close-call HOF starters that roughly overlapped with John’s career: Seaver, Carlton, Gibson, Jenkins, Niekro, plus Perry, Blyleven, Marichal, and Ryan. John compares quite poorly to all of them. He looks somewhat better (but still lacking) when compared to Don Sutton or even Jim Kaat (and Kaat is not what I would point to as a great example of a hall of famer). Interestingly, John was not someone who inexplicably fell off the ballot early (like a Whitaker or Lofton); he got a full 15 year look, getting between 18 and 31% of the vote each year. He’s also been on 5 veterans committee/eras ballots too.

The peak is pretty low. He had 4 or 5 really good years and a whole lot of ok/pretty good. Makes the counting stats look good (and that’s what the comp scores on BBRef are heavily based on) but not a lot of greatness. And the more modern stats of WAR and ERA+ are not particularly kind to him either for comparison purposes. As for the surgery…I’d be inclined to give that bump to Dr. Jobe’s candidacy over John’s.

I generally agree, but there does have to be some sort of balance too. In an article this week, Will Sammon of the Athletic pointed out that the Mets were 29th out of 30 MLB teams in first base production as measured by WAR.

The corollary to this thread might be that when he’s healthy, Soto should be getting time at first base.

Bichette could also play second next year if he returns and Sato needs to play third.

Exactly. Second least-impactful of all-time, went from 6-1 to 8-1 in the 8th. Highest-Leverage 1. Lenny Dykstra, 1986 NLCS Game 3 Walk-off, 73% WPA 2. Pete Alonso, 2024 NLWCS Game 3, T9/3-run homer while down 2 runs, 64% WPA 3. Edgardo Alfonzo, 1999 NLDS Game 1, T9/Grand Slam in tied game. 45% WPA 4t. Todd Pratt, 1999 NLDS Game 4 Walk-off, 42% WPA 4t. Benny Agbayani, 2000 NLDS Game 3 Walk-off, 42% WPA 6. Francisco Lindor, 2024 NLDS Game 4, B6, grand slam while down 1-0, 35% WPA 7. 8. Darryl Strawberry, 1986 NLCS Game 3, 3-run game-tying homer in B6, 31% WPA 9. 10. Just missed the top 10: Al Weis (1969 WS Gm 5), Ray Knight (1986 WS Gm 7) —- Lowest Leverage 10. Jay Payton, 2000 WS Game 2, T9. Moved the game from 6-2 to 6-5, but happened with 2 outs in the 9th. Only 2% WPA. 9. 8. 7. Mike Piazza, 2000 WS Game 2, T9. Moved game from 6-0 to 6-2. 1% WPA. 6. 5. Gary Carter, 1986 WS Game 4, T8. Added a run to make it 6-0. 1% WPA. 4. 3. 2. Daniel Murphy, 2015 NLCS Game 4, T8. Added 2 runs to make it 8–1. 1% WPA. 1.

Wright’s is pretty high up. Was in the first inning, but moved the game from 1-0 Royals to 2-1 Mets. 18% WPA.

I thought he was healthy enough to play and thus these last couple months are an important chance for him to get reps so the Mets can figure out what they have with him. If he’s not healthy though? Agree, straight to the IL. In any circumstance, the Mets had better not be assuming that Polanco will be one of the 9 starters in 2027.

You really think that’s a fair summary of the discussion here? When the article is full of quotes by Syndergaard self-acknowledging the limitations of his knowledge/expertise?

Highest-Leverage 1. Lenny Dykstra, 1986 NLCS Game 3 Walk-off, 73% WPA 2. Pete Alonso, 2024 NLWCS Game 3, T9/3-run homer while down 2 runs, 64% WPA 3. Edgardo Alfonzo, 1999 NLDS Game 1, T9/Grand Slam in tied game. 45% WPA 4t. Todd Pratt, 1999 NLDS Game 4 Walk-off, 42% WPA 4t. Benny Agbayani, 2000 NLDS Game 3 Walk-off, 42% WPA 6. Francisco Lindor, 2024 NLDS Game 4, B6, grand slam while down 1-0, 35% WPA 7. 8. Darryl Strawberry, 1986 NLCS Game 3, 3-run game-tying homer in B6, 31% WPA 9. 10. Just missed the top 10: Al Weis (1969 WS Gm 5), Ray Knight (1986 WS Gm 7) —- Lowest Leverage 10. Jay Payton, 2000 WS Game 2, T9. Moved the game from 6-2 to 6-5, but happened with 2 outs in the 9th. Only 2% WPA. 9. 8. 7. Mike Piazza, 2000 WS Game 2, T9. Moved game from 6-0 to 6-2. 1% WPA. 6. 5. Gary Carter, 1986 WS Game 4, T8. Added a run to make it 6-0. 1% WPA. 4. 3. 2. 1.

Leadoff homers (and there have been a few in Mets playoff history) are worth 10% WPA — either hit T1 or B1 of a scoreless game — so they fall on neither list. Yes to Jay Payton. Only 2% WPA for that homer, but that’s #10; still many less impactful on the list.

Bumping this up if there’s still interest/if anyone is as interested in the least impactful playoff homers as I am. Answers to come before tomorrow’s game otherwise.

I was frustrated that Robert Stock got a start last time. Now I’m just mad. We have players who have an actual chance of helping the Mets in 2027 for whom this experience would be useful. Stock is not one of them.

Thanks for sharing that. Good article that was quite effective in making me feel sad for Noah.

Cionel Perez has pitched a lot of places over the last 9 years and has exactly one good year. Not worried about losing him. Yan? Any team could have had him at multiple points. These are not the sort of players you worry about retaining. They can be replaced easily. Lavender is different because of low cost and lots of years of team control. He’s one you hold on to.

1. It’s not all garbage time. Of the 41 remaining games, 21 are against SD, CWS, MIL, HOU, TB, NYY, and PHI, plus today’s game against ATL. Lots of good lefties on those teams and those games most decidedly matter quite a bit for those teams. Maybe even the Marlins and Texas games in September will also matter. 2. Lavendar would sit pretty nicely as a second lefty in the pen. Doesn’t mean they shouldn’t still go out and give Raley $15M to come back for 2 more years (or someone else similarly situated).

Some of these decisions are pretty clear: Williams: Under contract, so not really any decision to be made unless the Mets wanted to eat tons of money and trade him at his lowest possible value. While his role in the 2027 bullpen is yet to be determined, he isn’t going anywhere. Myers: not yet arbitration eligible and will still have an option year in 2027. With a <$1M in salary obligation next year and flexibility, obviously should be retained. Senga: obviously very early but making him a reliever seems like a great idea. Under contract for 2027 at $14M and then a free agent. Will be on the team next year unless (a) he’s so bad as a reliever that the Mets give up and eat the money; or (b) he’s so good as a reliever that he regains value and is traded. Garrett and Megill: Will be tendered contracts as long as they’re healthy/recovering well. This decision was already telegraphed when the Mets extended contracts to both in 2026 despite clearly never going to pitch all year. Should be ~$5M (combined) to retain them for 2027, Everyone else would need to do quite a lot to justify remaining, in large part because there are 7 key prospects that need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to remain under Mets control: Jefferson Rojas (new #1 prospect; acquired in Holme/Taylor deal), Gary Gill Hill (acquired in Peralta deal), Zach Franklin (acquired in Brazoban deal), plus Clifford, Wenninger, Suero, and Reimer. A few 40-man roster spots will open because Stock, Pintaro, McDermott, and Weisenburger aren’t particularly likely to hold on them. But there’s still a crunch. If I had to currently rank the remaining relievers in order of likelihood of being on the Mets in 2027: Lavendar, Nunez, Duarte, Cionel Perez, Yan, Xzavion Curry, Hagenman, field

Cabrera’s was a +81% WPA. It’s among the very highest regular season Mets homers; I think we discussed that a couple years back when considering the Steve Henderson homer (+92% WPA and maybe the highest ever for a Mets homer). But none of that was postseason of course…

That’s tied for #14, 23% WPA. Tied the game but was only in the bottom of the 4th.

Comes in tied for #22, at 19% WPA. Clendenon’s homer cut the Orioles’ lead from 3-0 to 3-2 in the bottom of the 6th but wasn’t (by this measure) the highest leverage HR from the 1969 postseason. Also in our top 10 is another from 2024 and the highest leverage homer from 2006.

Highest-Leverage 1. Lenny Dykstra, 1986 NLCS Game 3 Walk-off, 73% WPA 2. Pete Alonso, 2024 NLWCS Game 3, T9/3-run homer while down 2 runs, 64% WPA 3. Edgardo Alfonzo, 1999 NLDS Game 1, T9/Grand Slam in tied game. 45% WPA 4t. Todd Pratt, 1999 NLDS Game 4 Walk-off, 42% WPA 4t. Benny Agbayani, 2000 NLDS Game 3 Walk-off, 42% WPA 6. Francisco Lindor, 2024 NLDS Game 4, B6, grand slam while down 1-0, 35% WPA 7. 8. Darryl Strawberry, 1986 NLCS Game 3, 3-run game-tying homer in B6, 31% WPA —- Al Weis is 13 at 24% WPA. Knight is tied for 16 at 22% WPA. Lowest-Leverage

They did now Highest-Leverage 1. Lenny Dykstra, 1986 NLCS Game 3 Walk-off, 73% WPA 2. Pete Alonso, 2024 NLWCS Game 3, T9/3-run homer while down 2 runs, 64% WPA 3. 4t. Todd Pratt, 1999 NLDS Game 4 Walk-off, 42% WPA 4t. Benny Agbayani, 2000 NLDS Game 3 Walk-off, 42% WPA 6. Francisco Lindor, 2024 NLDS Game 4, B6, grand slam in 0-0 game, 35% WPA 7. 8. Darryl Strawberry, 1986 NLCS Game 3, 3-run game-tying homer in B6, 31% WPA Lowest-Leverage