Gwreck

1. Do not approach the offseason with any sort of assumption that a spot needs to be held open for Benge, Williams, Clifford, or anyone else in the prospect ranks. In fact, assume exactly zero major league production from any of those 3 players. If and when they produce in the majors, that's a bonus, but shouldn't be factored in when making offseason moves. 2. Re-sign Alonso. Maybe this involves a bit of an over-pay, with the contract really paying for production over the next 3 or so years (even if the contract winds up being longer). But realistically, there are very few options available on the free agent market that can provide what Pete does. 3. Make a serious play for Kyle Schwarber. No, seriously. We have a billionaire owner. Go to him and explain what a coup it would be to sign Alonso and the other best available free-agent hitter, plus the added benefit of subtracting a great player from the biggest obstacle to a division title. Making the Phillies overpay is the consolation prize even if he doesn't want to join the Mets. 3a. The open DH slot offers massive flexibility. (Yes, we are assuming that Starling Marte will not be back as the DH next year. Thanks for your service Starling, your 2022 was great, you had some big hits in the 2024 postseason, and you really were pretty good in 2025 also, but you're 37 now and have had too many injuries, and we're moving on.) So, with that flexibility, go out and see about acquiring any other hitter possible. Position doesn't matter. Maybe it's Bregman or Brandon Lowe or Ramon Laureano, but just get the best hitter you can if it's not Schwarber. 4. Extend arbitration offers to Tyrone Taylor and Jose Siri, but have a plan for someone else to play center field on a full time basis who is neither of those two guys, nor Benge or Williams. The free agent market here is not encouraging (and that's part of why you plan to retain Taylor and Siri on low-cost contracts in the first instance), but I have faith in Stearns to find an interesting trade partner.

This is where part of the big mystery is: in a vacuum, a lot of the players on this team are individually doing just fine, especially the hitters. And despite Senga and Peterson’s bad performances in the second half, there’s lots of talent there which produced great results earlier in the year (and has done so in past last). The bullpen is going to need be remade (again) in the offseason…but “dead weight on the roster” isn’t what comes to mind. Who were you thinking of?

I thought this thread was premature when it was started but now I’m really quite worried.

Britton in The Athletic has several updates: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6645438/2025/09/19/mets-pitching-plans-into-postseason/ Megill and Garrett both need Tommy John surgery. Garrett also needs surgery for a nerve in his throwing elbow. He could wait on TJ and try other options after rehabbing from the nerve surgery, but that would push his recovery past opening day 2027 if he does so, so could be better to get it all done now. Senga is unlikely to be on the postseason roster. Mets likely to carry all 6 starters (McLean, Sproat, Tong, Holmes, Manaea, Peterson) on the wild card roster. "Expect creativity" = could mean 3 different starters in a given game, each trying to get through one turn of the Dodgers' lineup. Mets considering whether to use McLean for Game 1 or Game 2 of the WC series. They seem some value in using the best starter in Game 2, which would either be a stave-off-elimination game, or a clinch-the-series game. The off day Monday allows them to change up the rotation. Additionally, there is an extra off day in the NLDS schedule this year, so a pitcher in Game 2 of the WC series could pitch games 2 and 5 of the Division Series. Don't rule out Syracuse reliever Dylan Ross for consideration on the postseason roster.

Again, I’m not deep into the weeds here but I did read the discussion at the link above that indicates that four different projection modes that are used in creating the odds, which are both forward and backward looking: [bLOCKQUOTE]FanGraphs Projections Mode This mode is forward looking and uses the FanGraphs Depth Charts projections for rate statistics (a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer) and playing time to estimate the neutral-opponent winning percentage of each team -- in other words, how likely a team would be to beat a .500 opponent on a neutral field. These winning percentages are then used to find the odds of each team winning each remaining game in the major league season. ATC Projections Mode This mode is forward looking and uses the ATC projections for rate statistics (a combination of multiple projection systems) and our FanGraphs Depth Chart playing time to estimate the neutral-opponent winning percentage of each team -- in other words, how likely a team would be to beat a .500 opponent on a neutral field. These winning percentages are then used to find the odds of each team winning each remaining game in the major league season. Season to Date Stats Mode This mode is backward looking and uses current season stats, weighted more heavily towards the most recent games, to calculate the neutral-opponent winning percentage of each team -- in other words, how likely a team would be to beat a .500 opponent on a neutral field. These winning percentages are then used to find the odds of each team winning each remaining game in the major league season. Coin Flip Mode This mode is completely neutral and uses a coin flip to determine the winner of each game, giving each matchup 50/50 odds.[/bLOCKQUOTE]

I’m not in the weeds on the numbers here but it doesn’t seem that off to me as it appears to also factor in respective talent levels (i.e., the Mets are more likely to play better because they have better players). Yes, I think I know what joke comes next there. I see the FanGraphs odds have Padres at only 99.4% for making the playoffs.

Fangraphs details here: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/about (They say it’s 20,000 simulations).

FanGraphs playoff odds: Mets 86.2 Arizona 9.5 Cincinnati 3.1 Giants 1.7 St. Louis 0.2 And for fun, their current World Series champs odds: Dodgers 14.4 Mariners 13.0 Phillies 11.1 Yankees 10.9 Blue Jays 10.8 Brewers 9.8 Tigers 7.7 Mets 6.6 Padres 4.7 Red Sox 3.6 Cubs 3.5 Astros 3.1

Strength of schedule is a major factor in those odds. Arizona has 3 games against the Giants, but then the Dodgers, Phillies, and Padres — all of whom will make the playoffs. The Dodgers/Phillies have not yet and probably will not have determined who between them will get a first round bye and the #2 seed. Arizona’s postseason odds are at 5% currently. Cincinnati has 3 in St. Louis, 4 against the Cubs, 3 against the Pirates, and 3 in Milwaukee. They’re also the furthest away in the standings at 2.5 games back. Now, there’s a chance Milwaukee might not have anything to play for (Brewers are currently +3.5 over Toronto for best record in MLB), but if they have a first round bye (a near certainty) they’re also unlikely to be resting starters that final weekend as they have the long layoff coming. The Giants have the 3 in Arizona and then 4 in LA. They finish with 3 against St Louis and 3 against Colorado. Not surprisingly, they have the highest odds among contenders at 9.1% The Mets, of course, have the Cubs and Padres but also the Marlins and Nationals. It’s about time the Mets actually take care of business against a Marlins team with nothing to play for at the end of a season.

Is 20% a “very good chance”? FanGraphs has the Mets as 80.6% chance of making the postseason.

I’m not sure we agree on the definition of “fraud.” The Mets got better than expected results out of Canning this year before a freak/non-pitching injury. Senga was excellent before getting hurt with, again, a freak/non-pitching injury. He’s been awful since and maybe there’s no connection but the timing is surprisingly coincidental if not. Holmes has had diminishing results as his inning count goes up. Big shock, we all saw this coming. Why he hasn’t been transitioned to a reliever already is a failure of strategy but overall he was a serviceable back-of-rotation starter. Manaea is the worrisome one. Was his excellent half season the outlier? Is he just not healthy?

We’ve seen some of that before, although not this year. There was a game last year against the Cubs, the Mets lost 1-0, controversial play at the plate and Mendoza says afterwards the umps got it wrong, it cost us the game. Not some mealy-mouthed equivocation about how they’re all close calls, etc.

Suero called up for now. Also Alvarez activated and Senger back to Syracuse.

I’d give him 53.

None of Diaz, Rogers, Soto, Helsley, Raley, Garrett, or even Stanek are “Quadruple-A” pitchers. I think there’s a reasonable case to be made that the Mets were unlucky and/or unwise in the trades they made for relievers. But no need to misrepresent the issue.

It was the top of the Tigers order coming up, with Keith (lefty), Torres (righty), Carpenter (lefty) and Greene (lefty) due up. Seems like a situation for Raley.

This is a dumb start time for the game. Tigers: are in the middle of a homestand. Off day tomorrow. Mets: also an off-day tomorrow. Next game is Thursday in Cincinnati (minimal travel). No reason to force this game into the daytime.

Megill was unable to complete the 5th inning last night for Syracuse. 4 IP, 6 hits/2 walks, 5 strikeouts, 3 earned runs. 79 pitches.

Lots of interesting stuff in the latest from Will Sammon of The Athletic: http:// https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6593785/2025/09/02/new-york-mets-kodai-senga-decisions/ 1. This weekend in Cincinnati is lining up as the focus for pitching: Peterson and Tong are being flipped, with Peterson going Friday (5 days rest) and Tong on Saturday (7 days rest). 2. McLean is being considered for the Sunday game (4 days rest), meaning neither Senga nor Manaea would pitch in Cincinnati. 3. Mets are considering that Senga consent to a minor league assignment. Based on ML service time, he has options — but his contract includes a provision that he cannot be assigned to the minors without his consent. * * * Not stated in the article is what will happen for the 4 game series in Philadelphia. Holmes and Peterson will certainly start two of those games, but the other two are up in the air: Manaea would obviously be rested for any of the games; Tong could pitch the Thursday finale on 4 days rest; Sproat could be called up; Megill is eligible to be recalled — but his recent start in Syracuse was crap).

That makes more sense then — Young effectively replaces Taylor and Herget replacing Waddell, and the Mets not going with one less pitcher.

With Young coming up for Waddell, the Mets are — possibly for the first time since the rule was changed (?) — going with a roster that contains fewer than the maximum allowed number of pitchers.

They will have no issue getting Sproat on, if necessary, since he would be an “injury replacement” for any number of players who would otherwise be eligible if not for injury — Minter, Canning, Kranick, et al. You may recall that Max Kranick himself was on the wild card round roster last year despite having never yet appeared for the Mets in the majors. The August 31 deadline is to have the player in your organization for eligibility. Which is why the Phillies had to get Buehler by then, the Cubs with Santana, etc.

It’s 21.

I’ve wondered why the change in terminology was embraced such that they are now more frequently called “opt-outs” rather than “player options.”

I understood that there is a positional adjustment in WAR calculations as well. Vientos has played a significant amount of time at DH and Baty has played almost exclusively in the field. His value over a replacement player is necessarily lesser because it’s easiest to “replace” someone at DH than anywhere else.