Benjamin Grimm

The corners seem to be occupied for a while, with Nimmo and Soto still having years left on their contracts. If Ewing is also an infielder, he may find an easier path there.

Another groundout brings home the run, but now the bases are empty with two out. 2-1 Reds. Am I the only one watching this game?

Pirates get a leadoff double from the 7 hitter, who then advances to third on a groundout.

Going into the eighth. Pirates still down by two.

Their starter is coming out in the 7th with a possible injury. Maybe the Pirates can get to the Reds' bullpen.

But then the Reds quickly plate two runners. At least it wasn't three. And... a new pitcher for the Pirates.

Pirates win a challenge, and the Reds' first run of the game is overturned and the runner is out at the plate.

Weather delay in Cincinnati. Weather reports indicate that it should stop raining at around 2 p.m.

I think, in the cases of Senga and Manaea, it may be about injury recoveries. Senga was terrific until he got hurt this year, and as we saw last October, he needs recovery time. Maybe that's the case with Manaea as well. Not sure what to thing about Peterson, though. I remember thinking, going into the season, that the rotation didn't have enough depth. When Senga and Canning and Megill disappeared, the lack of depth was exposed. Next year they'll have Manaea, Senga, Peterson, Tong, McLean, Sproat, and Holmes plus whoever they might add to that. Hopefully they'll be better positioned.

Mets, Reds, and Diamondbacks all lost yesterday. Our two rivals both lost extra-inning games at home, so that's kinda nice. There's still a possibility of a five-way tie for that third wild card spot, where the Mets, Arizona, Cincinnati, St. Louis, and San Francisco all end up 81-81. If that happens, the Mets win! They're 14-11 against the other four teams, which is the best record. Arizona is 15-16, Cincinnati is 17-17, San Francisco is 13-18, and St. Louis is 16-16. In the more likely event of a three-way tie between the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Reds, it's the Reds who would win out. They're 8-4 against the Mets and Diamondbacks, compared to the 5-7 record that the other two teams would bring to the tiebreaker. Mets Magic Number by team: Arizona Diamondbacks 4 Cincinnati Reds 4 St. Louis Cardinals 0 San Francisco Giants 0 The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds and Diamondbacks have the advantage over the Mets.

Okay, so if the Dodgers beat Arizona, the day will be a wash. More or less.

Manfred recently said that he's become optimistic that the Rays will stay in Tampa/St. Pete. I don't know what he based that one because the article was behind a firewall; I was just able to read the first paragraph. It seems likely that one of the two expansion teams will be in the west, Portland or Salt Lake City. Maybe both, but it seems like Tennessee or North Carolina also have a pretty good shot.

If it was a one-game race, meaning the Mets were one game ahead of both the Reds and the Diamondbacks on Sunday morning, there are three games to be played, and eight possible outcomes: 1. Mets win, Reds win, Diamondbacks win 2. Mets win, Reds win, Diamondbacks lose 3. Mets win, Reds lose, Diamondbacks win 4. Mets win, Reds lose, Diamondbacks lose 5. Mets lose, Reds win, Diamondbacks win 6. Mets lose, Reds win, Diamondbacks lose 7. Mets lose, Reds lose, Diamondbacks win 8. Mets lose, Reds lose, Diamondbacks lose Numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 8 put the Mets in the playoffs, which makes their chance 62.5 percent. (Five out of eight.) With five games remaining, and 32,768 possibilities, it's seemingly more complicated, but the same rules apply.

This is what Microsoft Copilot has to say: 🧮 Total Scenarios Each of the 15 remaining games (5 per team × 3 teams) has 2 outcomes → 2^15 = 32,768 total scenarios 🎯 Goal Count how many of those scenarios satisfy: Mets win ≥ Reds wins Mets win ≥ Diamondbacks wins 🧠 Strategy We’ll iterate over all possible win totals for each team (0 to 5 wins), and count how many combinations satisfy the condition. Let’s define: 𝑀 : Mets wins (0–5) 𝑅 : Reds wins (0–5) 𝐷 : Diamondbacks wins (0–5) Each team’s 5 games have: (5/𝑘) ways to win 𝑘 games So total combinations for a given (M, R, D) triple: (5/𝑀)⋅(5/𝑅)⋅(5/𝐷) We sum over all triples where 𝑀≥𝑅 and 𝑀≥𝐷 ✅ Valid Triples Let’s compute the total: plaintext For M = 0: R = 0, D = 0 → 1×1×1 = 1 For M = 1: R = 0–1, D = 0–1 → 2×2 = 4 For M = 2: R = 0–2, D = 0–2 → 3×3 = 9 For M = 3: R = 0–3, D = 0–3 → 4×4 = 16 For M = 4: R = 0–4, D = 0–4 → 5×5 = 25 For M = 5: R = 0–5, D = 0–5 → 6×6 = 36 Now weight each by the number of ways to get that win count: {Complicated formula that doesn't paste well} Let’s compute that: M Ways (M) Valid R Valid D Total Combos 0 1 1 1 1×1×1 = 1 1 5 1+5=6 1+5=6 5×6×6 = 180 2 10 1+5+10=16 1+5+10=16 10×16×16 = 2,560 3 10 1+5+10+10=26 same 10×26×26 = 6,760 4 5 1+5+10+10+5=31 same 5×31×31 = 4,805 5 1 1+5+10+10+5+1=32 same 1×32×32 = 1,024 🔢 Final Total 1+180+2,560+6,760+4,805+1,024=15,330 ✅ Answer Out of 32,768 possible scenarios, there are 15,330 where the Mets win as many or more games than both the Reds and Diamondbacks.

For the 15 games, there are 32,768 possible outcomes. Some of these will have the outcome you mentioned, where there are days when the Mets win and the Diamondbacks and Reds both lose. And there are others where that won't happen. But you can look at each of the 32,768 combinations and determine in how many the Mets win the wild card, and in how many it's the Reds or the Diamondbacks.

You're so old-fashioned! You don't need to be married to have kids! I think what FK is doing is he's seeing all of the possible combinations of outcomes of the 15 games remaining among the Mets, Reds, and Diamondbacks. And since none of these teams play each other, each outcome is independent of the others.

It looks like Griffin Canning was a good find, but unfortunately he got hurt early. Turning Clay Holmes into a starter could have gone better, but it wasn't a disaster. He's pitched well (3.69 ERA in 158.2 innings) but he makes too many early exits. Trading for Helsley looked good but turned out poorly. Jose Quintana has made 24 starts, with a 3.96 ERA in 131.2 innings. Luis Severino 28 starts, 4.72 ERA, 156.1 innings. Either one of them would have been better than Frankie Montas.

The Mets are once again sitting in a playoff spot, so let's take a fresh look at the numbers. The Mets no longer have to worry about the Giants. At best, they can finish in a tie with the Mets and the Mets have the tiebreaker. However, the Giants aren't necessarily eliminated. If there's a three-way or four-way tie at 81-81 that includes the Mets and Giants, along with the Reds and/or Diamondbacks, the Giants may be able to emerge from that mess. Who knows? The Mets are one game ahead of both Cincinnati and Arizona, both of whom own the tiebreaker advantage over the Mets. The Mets have to avoid losing more games than either team over the last five games. I'm not optimistic, but I'm hopeful. Let's see what happens! We really have no other alternatives. Mets Magic Number by team: Arizona Diamondbacks 5 Cincinnati Reds 5 St. Louis Cardinals 1 San Francisco Giants 0 The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds and Diamondbacks have the advantage over the Mets. Meanwhile, it's the third wild-card spot or nothing, as the Padres have clinched a better record than the Mets. Current Playoff Odds: [table][tr][th][/th][th]FanGraphs[/th][th]Baseball Reference[/th][/tr][tr][th]Mets[/th][td]67.4[/td][td]50.7[/td][/tr][tr][th]Arizona[/th][td]10.9[/td][td]24.9[/td][/tr][tr][th]San Francisco[/th][td]0.0[/td][td]<0.1[/td][/tr][tr][th]Cincinnati[/th][td]21.4[/td][td]24.9[/td][/tr][tr][th]St. Louis[/th][td]0.1[/td][td]< 0.1[/td][/tr][/table]

So what happens if the shortstop yells "Challenge it!" ? Or if the shortstop yells "French Onion Soup!" and the pitcher knows that that's a secret code for "Challenge It!"

I think Jet Williams and Carson Benge are the most likely internal candidates. I suppose another option would be to put McNeil in the outfield and let someone else (Acuna, Baty, Mauricio, external option) replace Jeff in the infield.

I'd be inclined to keep the first base coach. It appears he's figured out something about when is the best time to steal second base. But it's hard to say that any of the others have made a meaningful positive contribution to the team. I don't know if Mendoza comes back or not. I wouldn't be surprised either way.

I guess Siri, Taylor, and Mullens could be categorized as dead weight, but I really think it's been the collapse of the starting rotation that's been the real problem. Going into the season I worried that they didn't have enough depth in the pitching staff, and the first few months of the season seemed to disprove that. But it's hard to hide a weakness over 162 games, and it caught up with them. (EDIT: I posted the above before I saw FK's post.)

Yesterday: Mets won. Reds won. Giants lost. Diamondbacks lost. Cardinals won. Mets Magic Number by team: Arizona Diamondbacks 6 Cincinnati Reds 7 San Francisco Giants 4 St. Louis Cardinals 3 The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds and Diamondbacks have the advantage over the Mets. Today: Mets host the Nationals. Diamondbacks host the Phillies. Reds host the Cubs. Giants visit the Dodgers. Cardinals host the Brewers. Meanwhile, the Padres magic number over the Mets to clinch that second wild card spot is 5. Current Playoff Odds: [table][tr][th][/th][th]FanGraphs[/th][th]Baseball Reference[/th][/tr][tr][th]Mets[/th][td]89.9[/td][td]76. 6[/td][/tr][tr][th]Arizona[/th][td]1.3[/td][td]5.3[/td][/tr][tr][th]San Francisco[/th][td]0.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][/tr][tr][th]Cincinnati[/th][td]8.9[/td][td]17.7[/td][/tr][tr][th]St. Louis[/th][td]0.1[/td][td]< 0.1[/td][/tr][/table]

Please note my second paragraph, above.