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Benjamin Grimm

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Everything posted by Benjamin Grimm

  1. Benjamin Grimm
    The math, at least, is simple. We'ee down to four possible outcomes, one of which favors the Mets.
  2. Benjamin Grimm
    An exception never proves a rule. In fact, it DISproves it.
  3. Benjamin Grimm
    It seems you have mixed feelings about Cedric Mullins.
  4. Benjamin Grimm
    Yesterday the Mets and Reds won, and the Diamondbacks lost. As we well know by now, both Arizona and Cincinnati have the tie-breaker advantage over the Mets, so the Mets have to finish with more wins than both teams in order to advance to the postseason. Mets Magic Number by team: Cincinnati Reds 3 Arizona Diamondbacks 2 If all goes well, or really, if enough goes well, the Mets could eliminate the Diamondbacks tonight and the Reds tomorrow. If that happens, they can get some Joey Lucchesi wannabe to start Sunday's game. [table][tr][th][/th][th]FanGraphs[/th][th]Baseball Reference[/th][/tr] [tr][th]Mets[/th][td]77.7[/td][td]68.3[/td][/tr] [tr][th]Arizona[/th][td]4.5[/td][td]2.1[/td][/tr] [tr][th]Cincinnati[/th][td]7.5[/td][td]20.2[/td][/tr][/table] With nine games remaining, there are 2^9 possible combinations of outcomes. That's 512. (Down significantly from the 32,768 from a few days ago!) Google Copilot tells me that the Mets end up with a playoff berth in 312 of those outcomes, a 60.9 percent chance if that's accurate.
  5. Benjamin Grimm
  6. Benjamin Grimm
    Maybe this will inspire Soto to hit seven homers in Miami this weekend. I'd welcome that!
  7. Benjamin Grimm
    Yes, I had missed that. But it's moot now. The Mets, with their 82nd win, have eliminated the Cardinals, Giants, and Marlins.
  8. Benjamin Grimm
    Dodgers are now up 8-0 over Arizona. (Two-run homer by Freddie Freeman.)
  9. Benjamin Grimm
    Meanwhile, Dodgers are up 4-0 over the Diamondbacks.
  10. Benjamin Grimm
    Brian Reynolds robbed of a game-tying homer, then shortly after, the third out. Reds win, 2-1.
  11. Benjamin Grimm
    Last stand for the Pirates. Down by one run going into the top of the ninth. The 2-3-4 hitters are due up.
  12. Benjamin Grimm
    The corners seem to be occupied for a while, with Nimmo and Soto still having years left on their contracts. If Ewing is also an infielder, he may find an easier path there.
  13. Benjamin Grimm
    Another groundout brings home the run, but now the bases are empty with two out. 2-1 Reds. Am I the only one watching this game?
  14. Benjamin Grimm
    Pirates get a leadoff double from the 7 hitter, who then advances to third on a groundout.
  15. Benjamin Grimm
    Going into the eighth. Pirates still down by two.
  16. Benjamin Grimm
    Their starter is coming out in the 7th with a possible injury. Maybe the Pirates can get to the Reds' bullpen.
  17. Benjamin Grimm
    But then the Reds quickly plate two runners. At least it wasn't three. And... a new pitcher for the Pirates.
  18. Benjamin Grimm
    Pirates win a challenge, and the Reds' first run of the game is overturned and the runner is out at the plate.
  19. Benjamin Grimm
  20. Benjamin Grimm
    Weather delay in Cincinnati. Weather reports indicate that it should stop raining at around 2 p.m.
  21. Benjamin Grimm
    I think, in the cases of Senga and Manaea, it may be about injury recoveries. Senga was terrific until he got hurt this year, and as we saw last October, he needs recovery time. Maybe that's the case with Manaea as well. Not sure what to thing about Peterson, though. I remember thinking, going into the season, that the rotation didn't have enough depth. When Senga and Canning and Megill disappeared, the lack of depth was exposed. Next year they'll have Manaea, Senga, Peterson, Tong, McLean, Sproat, and Holmes plus whoever they might add to that. Hopefully they'll be better positioned.
  22. Benjamin Grimm
    Mets, Reds, and Diamondbacks all lost yesterday. Our two rivals both lost extra-inning games at home, so that's kinda nice. There's still a possibility of a five-way tie for that third wild card spot, where the Mets, Arizona, Cincinnati, St. Louis, and San Francisco all end up 81-81. If that happens, the Mets win! They're 14-11 against the other four teams, which is the best record. Arizona is 15-16, Cincinnati is 17-17, San Francisco is 13-18, and St. Louis is 16-16. In the more likely event of a three-way tie between the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Reds, it's the Reds who would win out. They're 8-4 against the Mets and Diamondbacks, compared to the 5-7 record that the other two teams would bring to the tiebreaker. Mets Magic Number by team: Arizona Diamondbacks 4 Cincinnati Reds 4 St. Louis Cardinals 0 San Francisco Giants 0 The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds and Diamondbacks have the advantage over the Mets.
  23. Benjamin Grimm
    Okay, so if the Dodgers beat Arizona, the day will be a wash. More or less.
  24. Benjamin Grimm
    Manfred recently said that he's become optimistic that the Rays will stay in Tampa/St. Pete. I don't know what he based that one because the article was behind a firewall; I was just able to read the first paragraph. It seems likely that one of the two expansion teams will be in the west, Portland or Salt Lake City. Maybe both, but it seems like Tennessee or North Carolina also have a pretty good shot.
  25. Benjamin Grimm
    If it was a one-game race, meaning the Mets were one game ahead of both the Reds and the Diamondbacks on Sunday morning, there are three games to be played, and eight possible outcomes: 1. Mets win, Reds win, Diamondbacks win 2. Mets win, Reds win, Diamondbacks lose 3. Mets win, Reds lose, Diamondbacks win 4. Mets win, Reds lose, Diamondbacks lose 5. Mets lose, Reds win, Diamondbacks win 6. Mets lose, Reds win, Diamondbacks lose 7. Mets lose, Reds lose, Diamondbacks win 8. Mets lose, Reds lose, Diamondbacks lose Numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 8 put the Mets in the playoffs, which makes their chance 62.5 percent. (Five out of eight.) With five games remaining, and 32,768 possibilities, it's seemingly more complicated, but the same rules apply.
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