Yesterday the Mets and Reds won, and the Diamondbacks lost. As we well know by now, both Arizona and Cincinnati have the tie-breaker advantage over the Mets, so the Mets have to finish with more wins than both teams in order to advance to the postseason. Mets Magic Number by team: Cincinnati Reds 3 Arizona Diamondbacks 2 If all goes well, or really, if enough goes well, the Mets could eliminate the Diamondbacks tonight and the Reds tomorrow. If that happens, they can get some Joey Lucchesi wannabe to start Sunday's game. [table][tr][th][/th][th]FanGraphs[/th][th]Baseball Reference[/th][/tr] [tr][th]Mets[/th][td]77.7[/td][td]68.3[/td][/tr] [tr][th]Arizona[/th][td]4.5[/td][td]2.1[/td][/tr] [tr][th]Cincinnati[/th][td]7.5[/td][td]20.2[/td][/tr][/table] With nine games remaining, there are 2^9 possible combinations of outcomes. That's 512. (Down significantly from the 32,768 from a few days ago!) Google Copilot tells me that the Mets end up with a playoff berth in 312 of those outcomes, a 60.9 percent chance if that's accurate.