Dee Gordon

[Mex17]

You think that Dozier might be available because he is going into his walk year. Can you tell me that you have seen a reputable report that the Twins are actually going to put him on the block? I'm just trying to go with stuff that is actually in the ether, and there have been reports that Jeter wants to slash the Miami payroll and moving Gordon is part of that plan.

Notwithstanding that, while I am not totally coming off the Gordon thing (mostly because I am intrigued over what a Gordon/Rosario/Lagares combo up the middle can do with regard to preventing opposing runs from being scored), let me float another idea. . .

Harper suggested signing Bruce, Eduardo Nunez, and Brandon Kintzler. I'm going to focus on one third of that (Nunez).

Say you sign Nunez to a reasonable contact and you leave Bruce alone. Now you have Nunez, Cabrera, Flores, and Rivera. All of them can play multiple positions, (albeit not at a high level the way that Gordon can at second base. . .just saying), including the outfield in the case of Nunez and, to a lesser extent, Rivera. All of them can contribute with the bat (and probably slug better than Gordon can, I'll give you that). None of them I think can be counted on to play a complete 162 game schedule and give you 600 ABs. Say that you can pencil Cabrera in for 500 ABs, Nunez for 450-ish, Flores for 400, and Rivera for 300. You also have Lagares who, at this point, you really need to give playing time to in order to determine if you want to really pay him the $9 million that he is guaranteed for 2019 or create enough of a trade market for him that you can move that off of your payroll. With this, you have a lot of positions on the field covered but you are not really not locking yourself down long term with one specific guy at one particular spot. You save the money by not signing Bruce and, although I like the idea of Kintzler, you go with a little bit of a cheaper but still value-added option such as Joe Smith or someone like that. The money you save there goes towards a Lance Lynn/Alex Cobb/Jason Vargas type.

This, assuming other things like other players coming back from injury and performing up to expectations and perhaps even making some steps forward, probably gives you a team that will have a winning record but probably will not overtake the Nats in 2018 (instead, they will be in the hunt for a wild card spot). Now the Hot Stove going into 2019 comes around. Cabrera is off the books (and Harvey as well) and the money owed to Wright even after adjusting for the insurance reimbursement starts to go down. You still have options (in the general sense, not actual minor league options) in the forms of Nunez, Flores, Rivera, and Lagares, but you are not overly financially committed to any of them nor are you locked down with having to play any one of them at any one position (and you also have some versatility with Conforto with regard to CF or RF), and you can still trade any one of them assuming that Nunez is not going to command a no-trade clause. Now you are in a prime position to go shopping when the likes of Harper, Machado, Dozier, Blackmon, Donaldson, Murphy, and LeMahieu are all going to be available on the open market. Snag one or possibly two of them in an environment where the Nats are likely to lose Harper and possibly Murphy as well, and now you are in a position to take over the division.

What I am trying to get at is, while you do want to make some impactful additions for 2018, you need to do it with an eye towards 2019 when the real cheddar is going to be out there.

You also have to keep in mind the need to eventually lock down deGrom, Syndergaard, maybe Familia, and a little farther down the line Conforto past their free agent years, but that is probably a topic for another time.

[Edgy MD]

Mex17 wrote: You think that Dozier might be available because he is going into his walk year. Can you tell me that you have seen a reputable report that the Twins are actually going to put him on the block? I'm just trying to go with stuff that is actually in the ether, and there have been reports that Jeter wants to slash the Miami payroll and moving Gordon is part of that plan.

No, he wrote that he'd call the Twins and inquire.

And here's Carl Pohlad waxing philosophically on what it would take to move Brian Dozier. Ether. It's in it.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Dozier was all but traded to the Dodgers last offseason, but the Twins held out for DeLeon (plus another stud - Cody Bellinger was on their wish list) so LA said "FU" and went and got Logan Forsythe instead. Ken Rosenthal hasn't called me to confirm or anything, but I'd bet he's available.

Edit: Edgy replied for me better than me.

[Mex17]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Dozier was all but traded to the Dodgers last offseason, but the Twins held out for DeLeon (plus another stud - Cody Bellinger was on their wish list) so LA said "FU" and went and got Logan Forsythe instead. Ken Rosenthal hasn't called me to confirm or anything, but I'd bet he's available. Edit: Edgy replied for me better than me.

Okay, but I would still lean against spending a lot of player capital to get him now when I can pick him up (along with a variety of other big ticket free agents) a year from now.

On edit: Maybe the deal that I originally proposed for a Gordon might be more appropriate for Dozier, but only if it comes with a contract extension for Dozier now. I don't want to pay a huge price for a one year rental.

[Ceetar]

Mex17 wrote: Ceetar wrote: In terms of wRC+ as in, RUNS created, weighted for park and what not, he's 32nd among all 2B with at least 200 PA. I'm not trying to be snarky, but is there a comparable stat to this one that quantifies outs created or runs prevented?

you mean on the defensive side?

Defensive stats are a little less reliable. (in that we're not as sure they're capturing the whole picture. It's a lot easier to estimate how many runs score after a single based on the entire history of baseball than to figure out how many more balls one guy fields than another)

Gordon has the best fangraphs Def meaning Fielding and positional adjustments

But he's 14th in Defensive Runs Saved with 3.

He's 9th in UZR/150 which is Ultimate Zone Rating adjusted to a 150 game schedule/sample. Factors in arm, double plays ,range, etc.

[Mex17]

http://nypost.com/2017/11/06/dee-gordon-splash-solid-royals-starter-sizing-up-mets-free-agency/

Puma suggests the Gordon idea in print. . .

[Mex17]

Ceetar wrote: He's 9th in UZR/150 which is Ultimate Zone Rating adjusted to a 150 game schedule/sample. Factors in arm, double plays ,range, etc.

I'm a little surprised that it's that low, but that's the type of thing I was looking for.

Say you have one of the highest UZRs in the league as a second baseman, and this results in a spectacular play in a big spot when the opponent is primed to score or just to keep a runner of the basepaths before the big slugger comes up (so that your defense keeps a double from resulting in an RBI or prevents the solo home run from being a two-run shot). That kind of stuff should counteract a low slugging percentage when you are evaluating the entire player.

[Ceetar]

Mex17 wrote: Ceetar wrote: He's 9th in UZR/150 which is Ultimate Zone Rating adjusted to a 150 game schedule/sample. Factors in arm, double plays ,range, etc. I'm a little surprised that it's that low, but that's the type of thing I was looking for. Say you have one of the highest UZRs in the league as a second baseman, and this results in a spectacular play in a big spot when the opponent is primed to score or just to keep a runner of the basepaths before the big slugger comes up (so that your defense keeps a double from resulting in an RBI or prevents the solo home run from being a two-run shot). That kind of stuff should counteract a low slugging percentage when you are evaluating the entire player.

That's luck though. You could go an entire season without getting that ball in that spot in that situation. You're actually talking about a rather narrow area in which Gordon gets to a ball and another guy doesn't. UZR, defensive runs saved, etc, attempt to average that out. It's the equivalent of saying you should give a guy that hits .220/.260/.450 more credit for his home runs because they might come in key spots.

For every ball you can point to and think "Gordon would've gotten that" there are more spots you can point to and say "Walker would've driven that guy in." There's also thoughts that you can mitigate a lot of bad defense with good shifting (something the Mets didn't do last year) making hte difference between a meh defender and a good one less.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Kristie Ackert today reports, briefly, that the Mets and Marlins talked this week, and implies that Dee Gordon was discussed. The two teams have decided that there's no deal to be made, at least not at the moment. The Marlins have more of a focus on trading Stanton and will turn their attention to Gordon at a later point.

[Centerfield]

Hopefully the conversation was along the lines of:

Miami: Hey do you guys want Dee Gordon?

Mets: Fuck no, he sucks. What else you got?

[Edgy MD]

Jeter: Hey, do you guys want Dee Gordon? He can be had for the right offer.

Alderson: I'm sorry. I stopped listening after Gordon.

Jeter: He's still good! He can steal 50 bases, and he plays great defense!

Alderson: What do you know about defense?

[Centerfield]

Jeter: Hey, do you guys want Dee Gordon? He can be had for the right offer. Alderson: I'm sorry. I stopped listening after Gordon. Jeter: He's still good! He can steal 50 bases, and he plays great defense! Alderson: What do you know about defense?

Ouch. OUCH.

[Vic Sage]

Jeter: Hey, do you guys want Dee Gordon? He can be had for the right offer. Alderson: I'm sorry. I stopped listening after Gordon. Jeter: He's still good! He can steal 50 bases, and he plays great defense! Alderson: What do you know about defense?

BOC, dude. BOC.

[Guest 41Forever]

Jeter: Hey, do you guys want Dee Gordon? He can be had for the right offer. Alderson: I'm sorry. I stopped listening after Gordon. Jeter: He's still good! He can steal 50 bases, and he plays great defense! Alderson: What do you know about defense?

BAM!

[nymr83]

Ceetar wrote: Centerfield wrote: Guys, this is like Luis Castillo without the walks. for more money.

Exactly. Pass.

The only conversations I want to have with the Marlins start with "ok, so for a bag of balls, you'll pay a third of Stanton's contract, but if we keep the balls and throw in d'Arnaud you'll only pay a fourth?" Or "No, I didnt realize you were dumb enough to trade Ozuna. Yes, of course we'll give back Nimmo"

[Valadius]

Dee Gordon traded to the Mariners.

[ashie62]

We have a 2b, Wilmer Flores.

[A Boy Named Seo]

MLBTR sez the Marlins get Seattle's #2 ranked pitcher Nick Niedert (although "scouts have not been all that high on Neidert’s future prospects in the majors"), and two additional A-ball players. The M's inherit all of Dee's contract ($38M/3 years) and they will apparently plug him in as their new centerfielder. #JuanSamuel2.0

Maybe the most important tidbit is the Mariners got $1M of Miami's international bonus $$, which gives them the most $$ to offer of the 7 teams left in the Ohtani sweepstakes.

I guess if that $1M puts them over-the-top to land the big fella from Japan, then the M's could be... like, mediocre? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Rotation led by Paxton, the rotting corpse of Felix Hernandez, and Ohtani, and an offense featuring Dee Gordon, Ohtani, Robinson Cano, Corey Seager's brother, and Father Time Nelson Cruz.

They kinda have to get Ohtani or they're just gonna be an old, shitty 73-win team. Good trade!

[seawolf17]

Good for the Mariners if they do get Ohtani. (If it's not us, I want him in either Seattle or Texas.)

[smg58]

Trading for Gordon to move him to centerfield seems... dangerous. The Marlins freed payroll and got a bit more than nothing in return, so they're happy. There are plenty of options still out there, and he wasn't my first choice anyway, so I'm not broken up about this.

[Centerfield]

This is a great deal since it means he will not be a Met.

[Edgy MD]

I thought just about all of the other options were superior.

That is, if they're real options.

[nymr83]

Centerfield wrote: This is a great deal since it means he will not be a Met.

Exactly. The only downside is he won't be available against us. Oh and he dominated the Phillies but got killed by the Nationals

[Guest 41Forever]

Don’t the Mariners already have Robinson Cano at second? Or has he moved to another position?

[HahnSolo]

Gordon is going to play center.

Really.

[Guest 41Forever]

HahnSolo wrote: Gordon is going to play center. Really.

Just got Juan Samuel flashbacks, and they weren’t good ones!

[Mex17]

a) Jeter is quickly proving that he is way out over his skis as a GM.

Why would the Mariners get a guy who won a Gold Glove at second base two years ago only to throw him in centerfield? I know the player really has no offical "say" in the matter because he in under contract without a no trade clause, but as the team do you at least have a discussion with the player (or his agent) before making that type of move?

c) If that is the price for Gordon, than I think that the Mets have enough to offer in order to get a good second baseman.

[smg58]

The Marlins ate no money and got a bit more than nothing in return, at a time when zero free agent infielders have signed yet. I question the Mariners' thinking more than the Marlins' on this one.

The bigger question is how do you expect to build up a fan base in Miami when fire sales are already routine, and the first thing you do is hold a fire sale.

[Frayed Knot]

I think Jeter and co. expect this kind of trade (present talent for future) to help them with the Stanton process:
"Yo Giancarlo, accept the deal we offer you or you're going to be really miserable around here the next couple years cuz the longer you stall on this the more of these we gotta make."