Things That Still Matter

[ashie62]

I wouldn't expect T.J to bounce back from major surgery.

[Vic Sage]

41Forever wrote: Here's the lineup i'd like to see for the rest of the season: Rosario (ss) Nimmo / Lagares (cf) Conforto (rf) Cespedes (Lf) Smith (1b) Flores (3b) Cecchini / Walker (2b) d"Arnaud (c) Trade Cabrera and Granderson (and Walker, too, if possible) by August trade deadline for whatever you can get for them. I'll even take 4 more A-ball relievers! Bruce? Unless you can get some value for him, keep him and make a QO in the off-season. The challenge with the lineup you suggest is that Bruce is closing in on 30 homers, among the league leaders, and I don't know how you can tell him to take a seat.

Terry says to Jay: "Hey Jay, you know that $13million we're paying you? Well we want you to earn it by sitting over here, next to me. Get in a few games here and there, pinch-hit, play 1b once in a while. Cuz we know what you can do, and you ain't part of our plans going forward. Those kids? Nimmo, Smith, Rosario? Even Lagares, Flores, Cecchini? Them we still gotta find out if they can play everyday. You understand, right?"

"Sure, coach. I just have to make a call..."

[seawolf17]

Bruce is under contract. There's not much he can do. And he seems, by all accounts, to be a good dude. But at the same time, he's 30 and is going to want to make a lot of money this offseason, and he's going to have a hard time doing that being a fourth OF, even when we do win the World Series.

[Edgy MD]

There's still plenty of time to trade Bruce, waive Bruce, or release him.

[Guest 41Forever]

Edgy MD wrote: There's still plenty of time to trade Bruce, waive Bruce, or release him.

You're gonna release the guy hitting 30+ homers and approaching 100 rbi?

[Edgy MD]

That's not the plan, no.

[smg58]

30 HR and 100 RBI should mean that Bruce can afford to pass on a qualifying offer, and the draft pick would be worth more than anything he could get us back in August. And if he comes back that's OK too. So there's no point in dealing him right now.

[Benjamin Grimm]

They might be able to trade him for Oswald the Rabbit.

[Edgy MD]

smg58 wrote: 30 HR and 100 RBI should mean that Bruce can afford to pass on a qualifying offer, and the draft pick would be worth more than anything he could get us back in August. And if he comes back that's OK too. So there's no point in dealing him right now.

And then the team may get a redux of the Walker situation. A player who isn't part of the plan accepting the offer, not having a position, and taking up a big chunk of the salary.

Or alternatively, they carry him for the rest of the season, let him take at-bats from young players, he gets the offer, he rejects it, and the Mets get a pick between rounds two and three, the upside is two more months of burying their real centerfielders in exchange for ad second/third sandwich draft pick, and again, the risk of the former situation, that he accepts it.

Neither situation is a disaster, but neither is ideal. I understand why the team may still be looking to trade.

[Frayed Knot]

Back to Wright for a second: Wright has recently begun "low level baseball activities," Mets assistant GM John Ricco announced Wednesday. He has started to field ground balls and hit off a tee.

[seawolf17]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: They might be able to trade him for Oswald the Rabbit.

Oswald the Rabbit would probably have provided more value than, say, Tommy Milone has.

[Ceetar]

Bruce has been surprisingly good this year, but let's not get too crazy about a 1-dimensional slugger with bad defense in this new juiced ball era.

He's still got an 8.6 BB% compared to league average 8.9%. his .329 OBP is league average. He's fine. he's been better than average. He's 23rd in fWAR among outfielders. He's got a career high ISO and wRC+. Class contract year stuff. Judging by the interest he's gotten last offseason, this spring, this trade deadline, I'm not sure teams are willing to overpay for that.

[MFS62]

seawolf17 wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: They might be able to trade him for Oswald the Rabbit. Oswald the Rabbit would probably have provided more value than, say, Tommy Milone has.

I'm sure my stuffed Snowball doll (Secret Lives of Pets reference) does.

Yes, I have one on my computer desk, a present from my wife. Its looking down on me as I type this.

Later

[smg58]

Edgy MD wrote: And then the team may get a redux of the Walker situation. A player who isn't part of the plan accepting the offer, not having a position, and taking up a big chunk of the salary. Or alternatively, they carry him for the rest of the season, let him take at-bats from young players, he gets the offer, he rejects it, and the Mets get a pick between rounds two and three, the upside is two more months of burying their real centerfielders in exchange for ad second/third sandwich draft pick, and again, the risk of the former situation, that he accepts it. Neither situation is a disaster, but neither is ideal. I understand why the team may still be looking to trade.

Walker would have worked out fine if he didn't lose six weeks. The Mets didn't (and still don't) have a better option at second base. Cecchini, like Herrera last year, has given the Mets reasons to keep him in AAA. (Herrera, by the way, has yet to play an inning with the Reds and is out for the year. The bright side is that we might be able to claim him on waivers this offseason.) Maybe it prevented the Mets from making a long-term offer to a better second baseman, but there's no guarantee of that.

I'll agree that the Bruce situation is less cut-and-dried. The Mets have enough outfield depth in house to justify moving on. But if other teams insist on not valuing players that have value, we might as well hold on to them. Walker's salary will be off the books, as will Granderson's. That leaves a fair amount of money to play with even if Bruce does come back.

[Edgy MD]

Sure they had a better option. Play TJ Rivera, and spend that Walker money elsewhere, perhaps on a big fat reliever, one that laughs at puny Fernando Salas—HAH-HAH! Perhaps on another second baseman.

Seventeen million smackeroonies!

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The thing about Bruce (and any other potential QO recipients) is that he wouldn't net us an end-of-first-round pick unless he signed somewhere for $50M or more (thanks to the new CBA). If teams outside of Queens weren't interested in trading for him as a rental during a near-career-year, do you think they're paying that much over 3-plus-years to bring him on?

Back to Wright for a second: Wright has recently begun "low level baseball activities," Mets assistant GM John Ricco announced Wednesday. He has started to field ground balls and hit off a tee.

My daughter has taken part in in more baseball activities than DW has this season, and she doesn't play organized ball.

[Chad ochoseis]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: The thing about Bruce (and any other potential QO recipients) is that he wouldn't net us an end-of-first-round pick unless he signed somewhere for $50M or more (thanks to the new CBA). If teams outside of Queens weren't interested in trading for him as a rental during a near-career-year, do you think they're paying that much over 3-plus-years to bring him on?

I don't think this is correct, based on the labyrinthine rule as discussed here. It sounds like the only function of the $50M rule is to give a revenue-sharing team a higher compensation pick than it would otherwise be awarded.

MLB's website wrote: The Draft-pick compensation is also based on the financial status of the free agent's former team. If a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer signs a contract that is worth at least a guaranteed $50 million in total value, and his previous club is one of the teams that receives revenue sharing, said club will be given a compensatory pick immediately following Round 1 in the next year's Draft. If such a club loses a free agent for a contract worth less than a guaranteed $50 million in total value, the club will receive a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B (which follows the second round). If a qualifying-offer free agent's previous team is over the luxury-tax threshold, said team will receive a compensation pick after the fourth round has been completed. If a team neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the free agent's new contract has no impact on the compensation pick in both of these cases.

I'm with smg on this - assuming we do get a mid-level compensatory pick if he declines, there's no harm in QOing Bruce and, if he accepts, trading Nimmo or keeping him on as a 4th outfielder. The better outcome is that Bruce goes away, but the worst outcome is that we non-tender him and get nothing in return.

Besides Walker, has any player ever accepted a QO? It's somewhere between a serious offer and a kick in the ass. But much closer to a kick in the ass.

What I didn't realize about QOs until I read MLB's website is that they can only be made once in a player's career. You can't keep QOing a Bruce-level player until he forces the issue either by moving on or playing below the level where he's worth the trouble.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The once-in-a-lifetime thing for the QO is new this year, a result of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Until last year, nobody had accepted a QO, so the Mets probably felt that they were safe to assume that Walker wouldn't. But he did, and I think a few other players on other teams did as well. So that's now no longer a safe assumption to make.

[Frayed Knot]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Until last year, nobody had accepted a QO, so the Mets probably felt that they were safe to assume that Walker wouldn't. But he did, and I think a few other players on other teams did as well. So that's now no longer a safe assumption to make.

Until two years ago no one had accepted a QO, but three players did so in the year prior to Walker so his acceptance, while still the exception rather than the rule, wasn't precedent breaking.
Of course the QO system isn't all that old so there's a limited history on them anyway.

[smg58]

I think I remember Greg Maddux accepting a QO (or whatever the equivalent was in the old system) when the Braves assumed that he wouldn't, and they wound up having to trade another pitcher to keep their payroll from getting bloated. So it has happened. I think more players are starting to realize that sometimes you're better off accepting the offer, though.

My only gripe with Rivera and Flores is that they are basically the same player -- righthanded utility infielders who are more bat than glove, and can give you a decent average and power even if they don't walk as much as you'd like. They're very useful reserves, but they haven't given any indication of being more than that. I'm not sure the Mets really need both of them. Rivera's injury might render that moot, but I was under the impression it was similar in type and severity to Seth Lugo's injury, and Lugo (keep in mind he's a pitcher and Rivera isn't) was able to recover from the injury without needing surgery.

[Frayed Knot]

smg58 wrote: I think more players are starting to realize that sometimes you're better off accepting the offer, though.

Because they realized what a drag on FA-gency it was to have a QO attached to their necks.

Go back, I guess it was three years ago now, to when Ian Desmond plus a couple other players coming off good years went virtually ignored and wound up signing short-term deals from less than the QO because teams knew signing them would cost both money and the draft pick.
In the end it was a bit ironic that, by reducing the number of FAs who had compensation attached as compared to the old 'Type A / Type B' system which predated it, the QO system wound up making the few who did qualify for draft picks in return even more tainted and avoided.
Now that the number qualifying will be reduced even more starting with this winter's crop, the new rules might make it tougher still for those who will draw the max compensation.

[smg58]

I remember Stephen Drew refusing to take the QO, then refusing to take anything he thought was less than he was worth. He wound up sitting for more than half a season, and his career never recovered.

The old system sorted out type A and type B by position, and was particularly brutal towards relief pitchers. The new system is an improvement, but it is still a long way from perfect. One thing I would do is give the player more than a week to accept or reject the offer. The more time you have to gauge the market, the easier the decision will be. And the easiest way to discourage GMs from offering the QO to borderline players is for some borderline players to take it.