Bullpen

[Mex17]

Assuming that the Bruce trade happens and it is for a controllable righty for the bullpen with a live arm who has at least one year of success on the major league level and multiple years left of team control, My next move would be to go against the Alderson "book" and offer 3 years/$18 million to Blevins. I know and have heard everything that they have been saying about them experiencing more success with regard to rounding out the bullpen by going with shorter term deals later in the winter or into the season as opposed to multi-year deals, but I think that the difference is that Blevins has already been on this team, so that might make his case different from those of, say, D.J. Carrasco and Antonio Bastardo. They know him already, they know his working habits and they know how he fits on the team and in the clubhouse. That can make the three year commitment worth the risk, and $6 million a season for a lefty who can get both leftys and rightys out should not be a back breaker.

I am also warming up to the idea of letting Gsellman be the fifth starter and letting Lugo and Wheeler pitch out of the pen. Lugo has experience doing it already whereas Gsellman has not, and Wheeler in the pen reduces the innings that he will pitch coming off a two-year Tommy John surgery rehab. Who knows, maybe Wheeler turns out to be the Isringhausen of this bunch (ie, the vaunted rotation prospect who winds up having a long and productive Major League career out of the bullpen instead).

With all that in mind, I think that the primary 2017 bullpen could end up like this (notwithstanding any sort of Familia suspension). . .

Familia
Reed
Blevins
Robles
Lugo
Wheeler
Guy that they get for Bruce who fits the above referenced description

Then, in reserve, are the likes of Edgin, Smoker, Goeddel, Montero, Ynoa, Gilmartin, Sewald, and any veterans that they can bring in on minor league contracts.

Edited December 10, 2016 by Guest

[Lefty Specialist]

I like Blevins, but there's no way I give him 3 yrs/$18 million.

If he gets it somewhere else, Mazel Tov.

[Centerfield]

Certainly understand the apprehension. But we have Harper, Murphy, FFF in the division. We need someone better than Josh Smoker.

[Edgy MD]

Edgin is well out of opdgins, so he's ahead of Smoker in line, at least for now.

Erik Goeddel is currently sticking pins in a voodoo doll that looks suspiciously like Mex.

[Frayed Knot]

As mentioned in the 'Off-Season' thread, LHR Brett Cecil recently signed a 4 year $30.5 mil deal with StL so it's a pretty nice era in which to be a slinging southpaw.

Now Cecil is nearly three years younger than Blevins but their recent stats are mostly comparable or even favoring Blevins in some spots. Looking just at 2012-2016 (which, for Blevins, includes his mostly empty 2015 season):
Cecil = 264 appearances (includes 9 starts), 3.55 ERA, 1.25 WHiP, 266 IP, 10.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
Blevins = 274 appearances (no starts), 3.25 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 229 IP, 8.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

Yeah you'd prefer to hold a deal to two years rather than three, but the per year estimates are probably in the neighborhood and a durable guy other than in 2015 (60+ games five different times) who'll just be turning 35 at the tail end of a two-year deal (or 36 in Sept of a three-year) isn't an unreasonable chance ... unless they're a bit gun-shy after coming up snake-eyes by going 2 x $6 on Bastardo

[Mex17]

Frayed Knot wrote: who'll just be turning 35 at the tail end of a two-year deal (or 36 in Sept of a three-year)

So the 2nd year of the deal would count as his "age 34" season and the 3rd would be the "age 35" season.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

You know that the guy we sign/acquire/promote to get lefties out doesn't actually have to BE a lefty, right? (Terry might need a briefing on this, as well.)

Multiple years to a reliever isn't as nettlesome to me as multiple years to a LOOGY. I'd rather give that money, if necessary, to someone like Neftali Feliz, who's younger, just as good against lefties, and nowhere near as, um, kittenish against righties. Hell, at least someone like Travis Wood can get out lefties AND start in a pinch.

[Edgy MD]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: You know that the guy we sign/acquire/promote to get lefties out doesn't actually have to BE a lefty, right? (Terry might need a briefing on this, as well.)

The team got virtually all the way through the pennant-winning year of 2015 without an effective LOOGy (apart from five innings from Blevins and 11.2 from Leathersich), so I'm certain they know how to play that game.

It seems to me they've had sone success finding potential LOOGy-ness in guys who are just floating around, failing at bigger roles, waiting to blossom in the smallest role of them all. Over-committing to such characters as Brett Cecil seems folly.

[Frayed Knot]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Hell, at least someone like Travis Wood can get out lefties AND start in a pinch.

Not to mention pinch-hit (9 HRs in 280 career ABs) or play you an occasional corner OF (Maddon used him in LF three times in 2016 for a total of 5 innings).

[MFS62]

According to the news over the weekend, Familia will be pitching winter league ball this off-season.

Later

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: It seems to me they've had sone success finding potential LOOGy-ness in guys who are just floating around, failing at bigger roles, waiting to blossom in the smallest role of them all. Over-committing to such characters as Brett Cecil seems folly.

Yeah, I'd be happy to find a guy who is kinda struggling as a starter sign on and blossom as a LOOGY. This is one of my favorite story lines. Right up there with HS nerd-girl is forced to tutor good looking jock, who eventually falls for her and then she has a makeover and ends up looking amazing at the homecoming dance at the end of the movie.

[Benjamin Grimm]

From what I've learned from TV and movies, the "makeover" simply requires taking off your glasses and letting down your hair.

[MFS62]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: From what I've learned from TV and movies, the "makeover" simply requires taking off your glasses and letting down your hair.

And sometimes your neckline.

Later

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Other options:

STRIKEOUT-Y SETUP-Y GUYS (in rough order of preference):
Sergio Romo*
Junichi Tazawa
Santiago Casilla*
Feliz
Greg Holland**
David Hernandez

NOT-SO-STRIKEOUT-Y SETUP-Y OPTIONS:
Drew Storen**
Casey Janssen**
Salas
Fernando Rodriguez
Yusmeiro Petit
Joba Chamberlain

LOOGY (or LOOGY-plus) OPTIONS:
J.P. Howell
Brian Matusz
Blevins
Boone Logan
Mike Dunn
Javier Lopez
Tim Collins

*Recent, successful "closer experience" might price us out of these guys.
** But not so much these guys, because they're coming off of injuries/down years/velocity loss.
Am I missing anyone else interesting?

Edited December 15, 2016 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

Closers shmosers.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I just mention it in terms of affecting our likelihood to bring 'em in.

[Edgy MD]

Anyhow, some Tigers guy is proposing Justin Wilson and Mike Pelfrey for Curtis Granderson, and ... I'm gonna take a pass.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Wilson's interesting. Not Granderson interesting, but still.

Who's this Palfrey fellow, though?

[A Boy Named Seo]

What a nice, long, money-filled career "Big Pelf" made for himself. Also, keep that man the hell away from this team.

[Frayed Knot]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Am I missing anyone else interesting?

Brad Ziegler is now 37 but is a FA, is coming off a decent year (split between ARZ & BOS) and had that 'Gen-U-Wine Closer Material' stamp on his head only recently (52 saves in 2015-16)
Probably wants a two-year deal somewhere but that doesn't mean he'll get one.

[Frayed Knot]

LOOGY (or LOOGY-plus) OPTIONS: J.P. Howell Brian Matusz Blevins Boone Logan Mike Dunn Javier Lopez Tim Collins

Cross Dunn off the list, he goes to the Rockies for 3 years/$19 mil

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

3 years, 6-plus per. For THAT.

Yeah, Blevins isn't coming back. THANKS FOR RUINING THE MARKET, ROCKIES.

[Frayed Knot]

Well, I suppose the Rox could say that if Brett Cecil is getting nearly $8 x 4 then $6+ x 3 is merely the next level down.


Meanwhile on the Righty side, Junichi Tazawa goes to the Marlins on a two-year deal at $6 per.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Damn. See, 6-per for Blevins is a little tough to swallow, but for Tazawa (consistent 9K/2ishBB-plus-per-9, with seemingly fluky BABIP/HR-per-fly rates the last two years deflating his price a bunch)... that's not nearly as spicy a meat-a-ball.

[Frayed Knot]

And now Brad Ziegler to the Marlins at an unconfirmed 2 x $8

[Edgy MD]

Here's hoping our bargain basement sub-mariner Rowen out-Zieglers Ziegler.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Sergio Romo is out there still. I think he'd be an interesting addition, closer experience, colorful look, he'll be 34 next season and had a few elbow issues but appeared to have recovered from them by year-end and pitched pretty well.

Not a bad K man, if we could get him on a Bastardoish kinda deal and role I like him for that.

Fun Fact: I always assumed Romo was from Latin America but he's as American as Apple Pie, from Brawley, Calif. (birthplace of other relief pitchers of note: Sid Monge and Rudy Seanez and ex-Met Don Rowe)

[Frayed Knot]

Romo lost his closer's job to Santiago Casilla a couple years back despite maintaining better peripheral numbers over the last two seasons and was actually pressed back into the closer role for a time in 2016 (finished 13 games, saved 4) while SF was having all kinds of trouble in the back end of games last season.
Turns 34 during ST, he has the feel of a former closer who may thrive in a 7th inning type of role.

Still going to want some kind of lefty out there at some point.

[Zvon]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: 3 years, 6-plus per. For THAT. Yeah, Blevins isn't coming back. THANKS FOR RUINING THE MARKET, ROCKIES.

It's a vicious cycle.

I used to like Ziegler, but 37.....
Blevins, oy. Both deals are like:OUCH.
Sergio Romo should have been a singer.
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[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Still going to want some kind of lefty out there at some point.

Yeah. I have no idea who though. Maybe the Pirates will give us Bastardo back.