When will David Wright retire?

[batmagadanleadoff]

Oh relax already. It's only a thread and a poll.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah. Agitation is bad.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I agree that this may just be a slump. And that David may have several hot streaks remaining in his career. But this is definitely a reminder that the best is behind him and the decline is in progress. It's really a question of how swift that decline will be.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I agree that this may just be a slump. And that David may have several hot streaks remaining in his career. But this is definitely a reminder that the best is behind him and the decline is in progress. It's really a question of how swift that decline will be.

Clearly. I said as much 4/20-4/30 2007 when he went 4/35 over 10 games with a .469 OPS and 1 XBH. He was crap after that mostly, despite deserving the MVP.

[Edgy MD]

At the risk of being unrelaxed, I think it's also a question of how much can be gleaned from a future that remains.

I think too swift a jump is generally made among fandom from "in decline" to "done."

As someone in decline myself, I think that's meaningful.

For years, those on the presidential beat and the papal beat in newspapers were derided by their colleagues as having deathwatch beat. But operating them as deathwatches misses everything, letting dozens of big stories slip through your hands while always writing what you see the ultimate big story in your head.

[Centerfield]

I'm not certain of anything and I am not ready to put Wright out to pasture. But my worry (posted in the worries here thread) is that he's done.

This particular thread calls for a prediction, and as such, I predicted. Largely based upon my worry. And yes, I base my prediction partly on what he looks like out there.

I realize every player slumps. I think Bryce Harper is mired in a terrible slump right now. But fearing he may be done (23 years old, healthy) would be silly. I don't think it's silly at all to worry that Wright (10 years older, degenerative back condition) might be done.

[Edgy MD]

Wonder if somewhere, someone is writing on the internet right now that Bryce Harper is done.

[youtube:179w6o5o]pWX5G8oTO08[/youtube:179w6o5o]

Good Dickey Day footage in there.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Centerfield wrote: I'm not certain of anything and I am not ready to put Wright out to pasture. But my worry (posted in the worries here thread) is that he's done. This particular thread calls for a prediction, and as such, I predicted. Largely based upon my worry. And yes, I base my prediction partly on what he looks like out there. I realize every player slumps. I think Bryce Harper is mired in a terrible slump right now. But fearing he may be done (23 years old, healthy) would be silly. I don't think it's silly at all to worry that Wright (10 years older, degenerative back condition) might be done.

Everyone realizes players slump. And everyone here understands that Wright might simply be mired in a bit of a slump himself that he'll work his way out of. It's just that some people can't handle any negative talk about the Mets, especially when it's coming from certain people. So now the whole sensible discussion is gonna get sabotaged with ridiculous sarcastic and ironic comments like this all means that Wright is gonna hand in his retirement papers tomorrow and Bryce Harper will follow as soon as he goes hitless in three straight games.

[Edgy MD]

I'm certain I write more thoughtfully than you suggest.

And the "some people" act is unworthy of you. Please stop.

I certainly think it's entirely possible that he may never be good again.

[Zvon]

Ceetar wrote: Zvon wrote: My biggest fear is a sudden retirement. Like one day next week he says, nope, I can't do it any more. That would really floor me. Ugh, this sounds very stupid but I'd rather see him in there giving us whatever he has left as opposed to any other scenario (that doesn't involve a fantasy). So I'll watch his decline gracefully with respect. It'll be hard sometimes, to watch, but behind that I know this is very hard on him, so I temper my feelings with care. he was arguing himself into the game on Tuesday, so I can't see that happening.

My father has spinal stenosis. It is said to be degenerative and that makes you think, oh, nice and slow. But in some cases you can take a sudden downward spin.

I'm sure my father's age is a major contributor and not the same as David's situation, but the spinal stenosis is what it is. Let's say Wright is performing at maybe 75% (speculation) of his potential (before the back). Believe me (because I would rather not be typing this) that his back condition could go from 75% to 50% (or lower) overnight.

Because of Wrights age & conditioning, I don't see it either, but my fear is that possibility. And the possibility is very real.

[ashie62]

I have a friend, 47 year old male in good shape with spinal stenosis. It is a degenerative disease and he had his first disc surgery last year. How can you swing a bat with such force and not tweak a disc sooner or later?

End of 2016.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I've had degenerative spine issues since my early 20's. I also have chronic
arthritis in my neck in three vertebrae. (can't believe I spelled that without
the browser red underlining). It's all attached and needs daily attention with
a half-hour routine or the rolling dice can come up snake eyes.

I forget if it was pre-game yesterday, or post, when they said ya know ya just
know day to day how they'll feel when they wake up. Truer words never spoken.

People without back problems should count their blessings. It's hell sometimes.

[Zvon]

d'Kong76 wrote: I've had degenerative spine issues since my early 20's. I also have chronic arthritis in my neck in three vertebrae. (can't believe I spelled that without the browser red underlining). It's all attached and needs daily attention with a half-hour routine or the rolling dice can come up snake eyes. I forget if it was pre-game yesterday, or post, when they said ya know ya just know day to day how they'll feel when they wake up. Truer words never spoken. People without back problems should count their blessings. It's hell sometimes.

That's some tough stuff. Sorry you have to go thru that.

[Frayed Knot]

I decided to get a jump on middle age and started having back problems at age 14. Not a common malady for guys weighing about 110 pounds but whatyagonnado?
But, aside from the occasional times (once or twice every couple of years) when they totally knock me off my feet for a few days at a time, I don't require any particular maintenance or precautions.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Zvon wrote: That's some tough stuff. Sorry you have to go thru that.

Thanks, but nah I'm good and I'm not an aging professional athlete. 90 percent
of the year I'm fine. That ten percent sucks...

[Lefty Specialist]

I get that anybody can go 2-24. What's alarming are the strikeouts- 48 K's in 117 AB's. It's one thing if you're going to hit 40 home runs, but he's not.

[ashie62]

49 k's 121 AB

[Frayed Knot]

When will David Wright retire?

Not today.

[Zvon]

Frayed Knot wrote: When will David Wright retire? Not today.

big purple boc

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

I still think that due to age and health (back) issues David Wright is in steep decline. He will have his moments, but they will be far less frequent than in the past. To a great extent he seems overmatched at the plate. I expect that after a disappointing 2016 season, he will work hard in the off season with the intention of showing that 2016 was an aberration and he can still be a major contributor to a contending team. By mid season 2017, it will become apparent to everyone, including David, that he is essentially done and he will retire around the All Star break.

I truly hope my vision of the future is wrong and Wright shows himself to be a solid MLB third baseman, but I will be very pleasantly surprised if that were to happen.

[Ceetar]

Rockin' Doc wrote: To a great extent he seems overmatched at the plate.

Gary harps on this some lately. I disagree. Just the other day he turned a Strasburg 98 mph fastball right around and drove it 98mph, 310+ feet to center field. Had he been just a tad slower catching up to it, it would've gone into the gap for a double.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: Rockin' Doc wrote: To a great extent he seems overmatched at the plate. Gary harps on this some lately. I disagree. Just the other day he turned a Strasburg 98 mph fastball right around and drove it 98mph, 310+ feet to center field. Had he been just a tad slower catching up to it, it would've gone into the gap for a double.

Yeah, and if he swung a lot harder without compromising his ability to hit the ball, he woulda drove it 550 feet to left center field.

Also, Wright would probably have about 45 HR's by now if he was better than Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds combined. And three or four complete game shutouts.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Overmatched? Slump inclusive, he's the third-most valuable bat on the team this year, and top-20 in average batted-ball exit velocity. In other words, very few hitters in baseball are consistently hitting it harder.

[Lefty Specialist]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Overmatched? Slump inclusive, he's the third-most valuable bat on the team this year, and top-20 in average batted-ball exit velocity. In other words, very few hitters in baseball are consistently hitting it harder.

He isn't hitting it harder when he strikes out 50 times in 42 games.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Wright's base on balls rate is off the charts this season. He's on pace to draw 100 walks while playing only 75% of the season. I have mixed feelings about that -- and it's not because I have anything against the walk -- I don't -- I absolutely love it. I just think that this development might be further evidence of Wright's decline. Especially when his walk rate is considered in tandem with his increased strikeout rate. His whiff rates are also off the charts. He's on pace to fan almost 200 times this season -- again, obviously, in only 75% of the season.

I think these numbers demonstrate what we can all see with our own eyes -- that his ability to simply make contact with pitches has markedly diminished between last season and this one. We can speculate as to whether this will be the new norm or whether this is something fixable or even just random.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Lefty Specialist wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Overmatched? Slump inclusive, he's the third-most valuable bat on the team this year, and top-20 in average batted-ball exit velocity. In other words, very few hitters in baseball are consistently hitting it harder. He isn't hitting it harder when he strikes out 50 times in 42 games.

It's even worse than that. It's the Mets that played 42 games. Wright -- 33 games.

[Chad ochoseis]

Overmatched? Slump inclusive, he's the third-most valuable bat on the team this year, and top-20 in average batted-ball exit velocity. In other words, very few hitters in baseball are consistently hitting it harder.

This got me curious, so I checked the correlation between OPS and exit velocity for those fifty players - it's 0.001. The correlation between strikeout:AB and exit velocity is 0.157.

Those stats aren't perfect, but it certainly looks like there's no meaningful relationship between how hard a player hits a ball and how productive of a hitter he is, and only a little bit of a relationship between how hard he hits the ball and his strikeout rate.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Overmatched? Slump inclusive, he's the third-most valuable bat on the team this year, and top-20 in average batted-ball exit velocity. In other words, very few hitters in baseball are consistently hitting it harder. This got me curious, so I checked the correlation between OPS and exit velocity for those fifty players - it's 0.001. The correlation between strikeout:AB and exit velocity is 0.157. Those stats aren't perfect, but it certainly looks like there's no meaningful relationship between how hard a player hits a ball and how productive of a hitter he is, and only a little bit of a relationship between how hard he hits the ball and his strikeout rate.

Correction: the problem is with using OPS as a one-size-fits-all measure to gauge offensive productivity, as it inelegantly smashes its component parts together, weights them equally, and flattens the difference between them. There does seem to be some significant correlation between slugging and wOBA, especially when taken in conjunction with launch angle.

Blahblahblah... My point in citing the exit-velocity stuff was, Wright's not getting cheapies when he puts bat on ball, and he's walking a lot more. While he might not be optimal-DW at this time, he's not ineffective, even if the strikeout rate stays ridiculously high.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, I was going to mention that. Accepting the equal weights between slugging and OBP inherent in OPS works well enough when that's what you're measuring, but it's highly deceptive when grabbing it to measure something else.

[MFS62]

Chad Ochoseis wrote: Those stats aren't perfect, but it certainly looks like there's no meaningful relationship between how hard a player hits a ball and how productive of a hitter he is,

If you're looking for an example of that, look at those seventeen hoppers that found holes in the infield off the bat of Derek Jeter.

Later