Sign Murphy NOW!!!!

[Edgy MD]

I've been thinking about this, and I've got a bunch of perfectly reasonable arguments bouncing around my fool head.

You want to win the World Series? You're going to have to win the National League Championship Series. Who's most proven at getting you through that stage? Daniel Murphy, that's who.

And speaking of the NLCS, you just know if the Mets don't sign him, the Cubs will, and he'll end up hitting a hundred homers.

Isn't the new Royal-centric baseball economy moving away from the walk-and-homer-model hitter and declaring a premium on high-contact guys who challenge the defensive loads put out there by walk-and-homer-minded GMs and managers? You know who's a Royals-type hitter? Daniel F. Murphy is Royal-type hitter, kids. And he's right there in front of us.

If he leaves town, Foley's is going to have to wait until he retires to put him in their stupid Irish Baseball Hall of Fame.

Yeah, he's a flawed player. Grow up. Everybody's flawed. What makes Murphy different is that his flaws are known. Dilson Hererra, by comparison, is freakin' MYSTERY!

Doubles. He hits 'em. Lots. They're not homers, but they're, like, doubles.

We're not just talking about a defensively sub-standard starting second baseman. We're talking about a defensively perfectly decent backup third baseman and first baseman. Somebody's getting hurt next year, and Daniel has stepped into many a breach. And THAT'S when you want the real second baseman. GUH. He fits into any team. Why not have him keep fitting into the Mets and their wild-assed improvisations? Did you like Tejada at third? Well, did you?! Jerk.

Two Words: Home-town discount. Yeah, I know one of them is a hyphenated compound word and the phrase can arguably said to consist of three words. Present a paper at the next MLA convention, hotshot. What's relevant is that I'm sure The Murph is jonesing to give the Mets one of those HTDs so he can keep living in Astoria or Montclair or Mamaroneck or wherever the deuce he lives. Vicki and the kids have settled into a routine, you know? And he likes waking up to The Daily News, God help him. How desirable is that mediocre and familiar Muffiness to you? Think about it. Think hard. Now think about how desirable it is to you at BELOW-MARKET RATES? Got your heart pumping a little there, didn't I?

You can't let the Gay Mafia WIN!!!! And hey, maybe he can find redemption on the tolerance front. There's plenty of room for personal growth here. We'd hate to miss out on that!

Who's your 28? Well fangraphs credits Murphy with 12.5 WAR, but there they have John Milner with 10.0 and Bobby Jones with 9.8. That's a win for Murphy, but is it a decisive win? Not quite. No, not quite. Unsettlingly ambiguous, I'd say.

Thirty-three hits short of a thousand. Think of the sellout crowds anticipating THAT milestone. Nobody THINKS about that.

Back of the baseball card, baby. Who is more reliable with regard to being the same dude, year in and year out? Nobody. Nobods at all. The same dude. The same modestly productive, defensively adventurous, brilliant, brain-farting dude.

Resign Murphy NOW!!!

[seawolf17]

One year, $15 million. That's your qualifying offer. You want it? Take it. You want more? Enjoy Dodger blue, Murph. We'll remember you fondly.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: What's relevant is that I'm sure The Murph is jonesing to give the Mets one of those HTDs so he can keep living in Astoria or Montclair or Mamaroneck or wherever the deuce he lives.[/list]

According to that SI with Murph himself on the cover, he lives on the Upper East Side, those newfound homers aren't exactly flukes, he's made a deliberate attempt to increase his power this season, he might not hit 'em at the rate of six every six days but he might have morphed into a 20+ HR a year guy, he was hitting HR's at an increased rate (for him) over the last 6-8 weeks of the season but hardly anyone noticed because Yoenis happened, he was the toughest guy to strike out in 2015, he's always making contact, and he thinks that David Wright is better looking.

[TransMonk]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: ...he was hitting HR's at an increased rate (for him) over the last 6-8 weeks of the season but hardly anyone noticed because Yoenis happened...

I'd guess hitting in front of a hot Cespedes may have contributed to Murph's rising performance the last three months of the year, too.

I've always loved Daniel's hitting...very consistent for the most part. His defense and baserunning are average at best and are sometimes liabilities.

I'd gladly welcome him back at the qualifying offer, but I think he'll get an inflated contract from someone else based on his NLDS/NLCS performance. Good for him.

[Edgy MD]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: ... but he might have morphed into a 20+ HR a year guy... .

Murph has morphed! Morphy is the new Muffy! Sign Morphy NOW!!!!

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

The best argument there is the fact that he could fill-in at 1st and 3rd where Doodoo's inconsistency and Wright's health make for question marks.

But I don;t think that's necessarily enough.

All well and good to get the Royals-style high-contact, low-K players in the lineup but the WS should also have convinced you the Mets would be better off with the Royals-style steady-glove players.

As always we need to look at Muffy and all players in context of the other moves. Right now I'm imagining the Mets introduce Nimmo as a doubles-hitting, lefthanded support bat in 2016, and Hererra at 2B.

Make the QO, and see what happens.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Lazy question, what are the dates for QO's and filing for FA and
all that jazz? Is there some ten days after the WS or something or
am I mixing thing up with something else?

[batmagadanleadoff]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: All well and good to get the Royals-style high-contact, low-K players in the lineup but the WS should also have convinced you the Mets would be better off with the Royals-style steady-glove players.

This. I get it by now for the 500th time that the Royals have an approach to how they do things as an offense. Great. There's more than one way to skin a cat. The Royals contact game isn't gonna make the HR obsolete. Chicks will always dig the long ball. But fielding ... everybody's gotta field. The Mets have big problems on the field. It's not that they're overloaded with bad fielders but that they could stand to get better at two out of the three toughest positions to field -- the middle infield. They're bad in the wrong spots.

[batmagadanleadoff]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: All well and good to get the Royals-style high-contact, low-K players in the lineup but the WS should also have convinced you the Mets would be better off with the Royals-style steady-glove players. This. I get it by now for the 500th time that the Royals have an approach to how they do things as an offense. Great. There's more than one way to skin a cat. The Royals contact game isn't gonna make the HR obsolete. Chicks will always dig the long ball. But fielding ... everybody's gotta field. The Mets have big problems on the field. It's not that they're overloaded with bad fielders but that they could stand to get better at two out of the three toughest positions to field -- the middle infield. They're bad in the wrong spots.

BTW -- rumors are starting to circulate that Murph might now command $70-80M instead of the $30-40M that insiders were predicting four or five weeks ago.

[Edgy MD]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: As always we need to look at Muffy and all players in context of the other moves. Right now I'm imagining the Mets introduce Nimmo as a doubles-hitting, lefthanded support bat in 2016, and Hererra at 2B.

I get the idea that Nimmo's stock is falling. He probably has to prove a bit in AAA. He could appear in 2016, but I'm not counting on him for anything.

[Edgy MD]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: But fielding ... everybody's gotta field. The Mets have big problems on the field.

Well, it follows that when you're whiffing more batters than most everybody else, and walking fewer, you don't have to field as much. That, I think, is part of the philosophy (if a tertiary part).

The Mets got away with that for much of the year. It just didn't work against the Royals.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah, I actually see Nimmo coming in late May/early June but eff this "stock is falling" noise. He's only 22 and all he does is reach base and play center field.

I think just in the sense of being a more complete team we have to try and improve the fielding where we can.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: But fielding ... everybody's gotta field. The Mets have big problems on the field. Well, it follows that when you're whiffing more batters than most everybody else, and walking fewer, you don't have to field as much. That, I think, is part of the philosophy (if a tertiary part). The Mets got away with that for much of the year. It just didn't work against the Royals.

Yeah. I don't even blame the Mets defense. I think they were victimized by freak plays. Murph's error was a very tough play. Murph had to charge that ball if he wanted to give himself the chance of getting even one out on the play. The ball rolled slowly, unevenly and met Murph at the infield lip. The inside the parker -- both outfileders converged under the ball and either one could have caught the ball if they were determined to do so. I guess Duda could have made a better throw, but the Mets had just three hits up to that point -- two hits against Cueto. They didn't hit enough, and the Royals had all the luck. I think the Mets were being punished for the incredible luck they had in past WS -- the Buckner grounder, the shoe polish play, JC Martin's out of bounds run, the amazing catches in '69.

[Frayed Knot]

Gutsy move re: Murph -- Gamble that this increased power/reduced strikeouts is real (and spectacular) and will continue // install him at 1B where his glove will do less damage and trade Duda (2 years from FA) to fill other holes.
You'll still lose some HR pop but will increase consistency, lower Ks, be about the same in speed. Install Flores and/or Herrera at 2B, get a REAL SS via the Duda deal or elsewhere.


Nimmo's "problem" is sort of related to Murphy in that he might wind up being a bit of a "tweener", not enough power to excel in a corner OF spot but not really a CF either.
More likely to wind up as a high-OBP 1st or 2nd hitter than a middle of the order thumper. But Conforto has clearly moved ahead of him for the LF job, both now obviously but probably long term as well because of his powah!

[Edgy MD]

Frayed Knot wrote: Gutsy move re: Murph -- Gamble that this increased power/reduced strikeouts is real (and spectacular) and will continue // install him at 1B where his glove will do less damage and trade Duda (2 years from FA) to fill other holes.

This isn't ideal, but isn't crazy. Depending on how long you are committing to Morph and how much you can get for Duda, it just. might. work. It also dovetails with the Mets' inability to sign Duda long-term last season.

[TransMonk]

Agreed. I'm not sure Duda is a lock to return, but also feel like the puzzle grows much more complicated (though not any less solvable) if he's moved.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I don't think I can get behind a scenario that swaps Muffy for Duda.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Depends on what else happens, of course.

I don't expect that Duda will still be a Met five years from now, but I think he'll probably be around for the next two.

[Frayed Knot]

Well, it would be Muffy in for Duda plus whatever you get for dealing Duda. I mean, I'm just blabbing here, but we do need a spot for either or both of Flores & Herrera and I'd prefer Flores NOT be the regular SS.
But if this theoretical trade of Duda could net us a real SS then Murphy could play 1B until either Dabid needs to move across the diamond or until Dom Smith is ready.

[Centerfield]

Edgy,

What sort of deal locks him up? Even with a hometown discount?

[Edgy MD]

Well, keeping in mind that I was tongue-in-cheek speculating there, as I was throughout the post, I'm thinking three years, $39 million. Throw in a few incentives that could bring the total to $45 million (but never will) and NOTARIZE THAT SHIT.

[Centerfield]

If you do that, that could free up Herrera for a trade to offset the loss of Cespedes.

I'm open to ideas.

Sounds like your team could use a bump in payroll to make this happen.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Well, keeping in mind that I was tongue-in-cheek speculating there, as I was throughout the post, I'm thinking three years, $39 million. Throw in a few incentives that could bring the total to $45 million (but never will) and NOTARIZE THAT SHIT.

I think that's a wee bit on the far end. was thinking 3/36 as the max I'd go. And yea, incentives. MVP votes! ASG appearances! appeal to his sense of thinking he's better than he is with false value.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, I was torn between $12 mills and $13 million annually. I figured he'd keep shopping if I only gave him a million more than Cuddyer. GUYS CARE ABOUT THAT!

I'm not worried about payroll. I'm worried that the guy gives me a return on my outlay.

[Centerfield]

But don't you have to be worried about payroll when offering a three year, forty million dollar deal to someone who might have a cheap successor waiting in the wings?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd say, if you sign Murphy you make sure there's not a no-trade clause. I don't think he becomes five-and-ten until after the 2018 season, so that wouldn't kick in during a three-year contract.

My guess is that Murphy is very likely gone. I predict that the Mets will acquire a shortstop and move Flores to second. Herrera may eventually displace Wilmer at second base, but not for a while yet.

[Edgy MD]

Centerfield wrote: But don't you have to be worried about payroll when offering a three year, forty million dollar deal to someone who might have a cheap successor waiting in the wings?

They all might have a cheap successor waiting in the wings. Certainly Granderson and Cuddyer were signed under such circumstances. Colon too. "We're signing you for X amount of time, but we have replacements in development and only half expect you to be holding down the job at the end of the line. I'm curious how long you can keep the kids at bay. Good luck."

If I think the projected-production-per-dollar cost works, I have to be attracted to it. I think a three-year deal allows that transition to happen or not, as circumstances warrant, and Murphy's versatility in particular allows the team to pivot over the course of the contract, perhaps a few times.

And sure, if Murphy continues to prosper but so does his cheap successor, trades can always clear up such conflicts. Embrace the redundancy!

[Lefty Specialist]

Daniel may be a good Christian boy, and he may love playing in New York, but he also has an agent. He'll never accept 3/$40 or even less. Daniel's got to strike while the iron is hot and I'd expect him to be somewhere in the 5/$70 range. Someone will pay it, and it won't be the Mets. Hell, he was making $8 mil this year and he had no leverage.

He won't sign up to be Duda's and David's caddy either. He's gone, even if they give him the QO. I honestly don't see any scenario where he stays. Move on; there are other options.

[Ceetar]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Daniel may be a good Christian boy, and he may love playing in New York, but he also has an agent. He'll never accept 3/$40 or even less. Daniel's got to strike while the iron is hot and I'd expect him to be somewhere in the 5/$70 range. Someone will pay it, and it won't be the Mets. Hell, he was making $8 mil this year and he had no leverage. He won't sign up to be Duda's and David's caddy either. He's gone, even if they give him the QO. I honestly don't see any scenario where he stays. Move on; there are other options.

5/70 AND perhaps losing a draft pick.

I dunno, I don't see him getting that. I don't think GMs are dumb enough to be fooled by a hot stretch of games in the NLCS

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm guessing he'll get $56 million over four years. And I don't think the Mets would match that offer.

Three years at the same annual rate? Maybe the Mets would go for that, but I expect Murphy will be able to get a four-year contract somewhere.