Payroll 2016

[Centerfield]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Beaters seem to think Muffy and Cespedes will go, we'll go get a LH-hitting center fielder to platoon with Lagares (Rasmus?), and pick up a LH hitting infielder and maybe some bullpenners. Rasmus will hit some home runs but he's never been a great on-base guy. Plus he's weird. I am wondering if and how Cecchini and Nimmo could fit into plans.

That seems to be the most likely path.

I'd be really disappointed if that's how this winter played out.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy MD wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Rasmus will hit some home runs but he's never been a great on-base guy. Plus he's weird. He's teenager-who-goes-trick-or-treating-long-past-age-appropriateness-without-a-costume weird. He's sets-fires-in-the-abandoned-lot-with-lighter-fluid weird. He's shows-up-to-parties-everybody-agreed-explicitly-beforehand-he-was-not-to-be-told-about-and-even-though-you-kept-your-eye-on-him-your-mom's-jewelry-is-missing-two-weeks-later-because-he-was-only-casing-the-place-for-a-return-visit weird.

As of this afternoon, Rasmus is also cost-you-a-draft-pick weird.

And where's the dog? Did anyone see the dog? THAT FUCKING RASMUS

[Centerfield]

Wow. That takes him off the table no?

No way you give up the draft pick for Colby Rasmus.

[Benjamin Grimm]

We were saying the same thing about Cuddyer last year.

[Vic Sage]

and we were right... there was no way we should have given up a draft pick for Cuddyer last year.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

I like Jason Heyword the best of the available free agent outfield bats.

Jason Hayward 26 years old. .268/.353/.431/.784 career averages. OPS+ 114 2015 salary $8.3 mil.

Justin Upton 28 years old. .271/.352/.473/.825 carerr averages. OPS+ 121 2015 salary $14.7 mil.

Colby Rasmus 29 years old. .247/.313/.443/.756 career averages. OPS+ 105 2015 salary $8.0 mil.

I don't think Colby Rasmus stacks up favorably to Heyward and Upton. I would pass on Rasmus, personally. I like Heyward who should be entering his prime years and has been trending uprward the past 2 years. If unable to land any of the free agent outfielders, then another interesting option to me is possibly getting Howie Kendrick to play second base.

Howie Kendrick 32 years old .293/.333/.423/.755 Career averages. OPS+ 108 2015 salary $9.85 mil. He could be a good repalcement for Murphy and fit nicely in the 2nd slot in the order should the Mets be unable to get either Heyward or Upton.

I have confidence in Alderson to make the appropriate decisions either in the free agent market or through trade, so long as the owners don't tie his hands financially.

[Centerfield]

Mark Carig has an article in Newsday that indicates that the Wilpons don't intend to significantly increase payroll. It appears to be all speculation but sounds very plausible if you take into account recent history.

Effectively he writes off Murphy and Cespedes. Heyward and Upton are off the table too. He thinks Parra and Span are more likely targets.

I don't know how to link it from my phone, but should be easy for you guys to find.

I don't know. Thinking about losing talent like Cespedes and Murphy while listening to management justify Gerardo Parra is pretty fucking depressing. I hate the Fucking Wilpons.

I hope Carig is wrong.

[Guest d'Kong76]

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/mets-gm-sandy-alderson-s-job-keeping-national-league-champions-at-that-level-1.11071967

[Centerfield]

Thanks KC.

You know, as I re-read Sandy's quotes from last week, I don't think Carig is right. I don't think Sandy would say payroll would be higher unless he planned on delivering.

Plus Fred Wilpon has said publicly that once attendance goes up, so will payroll.

I think we are at the point where he can no longer excuse his nonspending. And if nothing else, that alone will force him to take the handcuffs of of Sandy.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Centerfield wrote: Thanks KC. You know, as I re-read Sandy's quotes from last week, I don't think Carig is right. I don't think Sandy would say payroll would be higher unless he planned on delivering.

I totally agree with this. Privately, I've been thinking that the Mets will increase payroll for 2016, not only because they're coming off about as good as possible a season as they could've had -- but mainly because Alderson said he hopes the 2016 opening payroll will be higher than last year's opening payroll. I figure that Sandy wouldn't say that if he wasn't sure about the Mets willingness to spend for 2016. He's not, I figure, gonna make a public statement that has the potential to make the owners look bad. I figured that Sandy purposely set a low bar knowing in advance that payroll will increase and the owners, for once, will get to look like heroes for exceeding Sandy's modest wishes.

Centerfield wrote: Plus Fred Wilpon has said publicly that once attendance goes up, so will payroll.

This I totally discount. These words are meaningless. Fred's an out an out professional bullshit artist.

[Edgy MD]

I don't think much of Parra, and he's coming off a bad season, but Span's a player. At least, he is when healthy. (I could say the same about Cuddy, I guess.)

Is he healthy?

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: I don't think much of Parra, and he's coming off a bad season, but Span's a player. At least, he is when healthy. (I could say the same about Cuddy, I guess.) Is he healthy?

Span, hip surgery on 9/1, 4-6 month recovery time. So he will be recovered, and 'healthy' but hips make me nervous. I feel like it might be one of those injuries that even post surgery limits your rotation/swing/first step defensively.

[Vic Sage]

Centerfield wrote: Mark Carig has an article in Newsday that indicates that the Wilpons don't intend to significantly increase payroll. It appears to be all speculation but sounds very plausible if you take into account recent history. Effectively he writes off Murphy and Cespedes. Heyward and Upton are off the table too. He thinks Parra and Span are more likely targets. I don't know how to link it from my phone, but should be easy for you guys to find. I don't know. Thinking about losing talent like Cespedes and Murphy while listening to management justify Gerardo Parra is pretty fucking depressing. I hate the Fucking Wilpons. I hope Carig is wrong.

Why is Heyward off the table? He fits all the parameters. He's 27, just coming into the prime of his career; his WAR over the last 3 seasons has increased from 3.4, to 5.2, to 6.0 (Fangraphs); his speed allows him to hit just about anywhere in the lineup; his arm and overall defense are excellent, and he has experience in CF.

The only reason we may not sign him is money (assuming he's not otherwise opposed to coming to a pennant winning team in NY), and that would be outrageous betrayal by the Wilpons, and proof that the notions we've had about their financial situation are true.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I agree. Heyward looks to me like the kind of guy they should be going after.

I hope that the reports that he's "off the table" are inaccurate.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I agree. Heyward looks to me like the kind of guy they should be going after. I hope that the reports that he's "off the table" are inaccurate.

And he was born in my town apparently. well, my mailing address town. my actual town is Johnny Van Der Meers.

[Centerfield]

Heyward is actually 26 years old. He has good plate discipline, and as mentioned, fits exactly into the Mets' needs.

It's possible that his contract negotiations spiral into ridiculous territory like Robinson Cano. But there is no reason for the Mets to not be right in the thick of things. This is not one of those "wrong side of 30" contracts people write about.

Upton is young as well.

We will learn a lot this winter. For the last few years, I think the Wilpons got away with not spending because of the "building from within" and "fiscal responsibility" party line. (For me, I think you can build from within AND spend money, but that's another story).

Now coming off a World Series, rebuilding is over. It's time to win.

Like I mentioned before, I think the Wilpons will open it up this winter. The early indicators are pretty good. And if they do, we're all good.

If they don't, then they're fucking broke and need to sell the team to someone who has the means to do it justice.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Heyward is a not really a center fielder, so not ideal given we have 3 corner outfielders already and seem to be in need of a RF hitting, fulltime CF or LH hitter to platoon with Lagares. Taking him on would likely mean moving other pieces around, like trading Grandy -- it could be done, but not sure they'd do it.

[Edgy MD]

Trading Grandy... to make room for a younger more expensive guy who's not necessarily better. Least, he wasn't last year.

Good player, but yeah, the fit isn't obvious.

[Centerfield]

This post suggests that Heyward playing a corner OF position has more to do with circumstance than ability.

Plus it has video of that great game-saving catch he made in CF against the Mets. The guy flat out covers ground:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-dont-the-cardinals-make-jason-heyward-their-center-fielder/

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, I imagine he can play center. I just mean it's not obvious, because of the lack of history there. It certainly works in theory.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: Yeah, I imagine he can play center. I just mean it's not obvious, because of the lack of history there. It certainly works in theory.

Understood. Lack of history at the position.

What that video also tells us is that if we had Heyward this year, the leprechaun would not have gotten a single hit in the NLDS.

[Vic Sage]

If Cespedes can play CF, then so can Heyward... and he has. Heyward has played a few hundred innings in CF over the last few years, so, while it hasn't been his primary position, it's not like he doesn't have recent MLB experience there. Upton, on the other hand, hasn't played CF at all, and is a little older, and is nowhere near as productive.

The only full-time CFers available are guys like Rasmus, Span, Fowler and Jackson, all of whom are strictly 2nd tier and are near or on the wrong side of 30 (Rasmus and Jackson are 29, Fowler 30, Span 32). They are backup plans, to platoon with Lagares. Our primary goal should be Heyward. And the problem with the Cano deal was that Cano was already over 31, and while still very productive, had at that point 3 consecutive years of decreasing OPS+. At his best, Cano was an 8+/year WAR player. Heyward isn't close to that yet and so doesn't warrant that sort of deal. But buying a guy's 27-32 years, at the cost of overpaying for years 33-37, is a much better sort of 10-year deal than buying a guy's 31-41 years, whatever the price.

I think Heyward is probably worth an 8-year/$160m deal, and the Mets should be willing to pay that. Bu even if the bidding goes into Cano territory (10yr/$24m), Cano's deal was signed prior to the last 2 seasons, so that might be the going rate today for a player with a more modest track record but who is significantly younger and still trending upward, coming off a 6+ WAR season. The point is we shouldn't be scared off of him, if Sandy thinks he's the right fit, even if we have to overpay. This will give us a 5-year window with most of our aces and a lineup of Heyward, d'Arnaud, Comforto, Flores and Duda (with Granderson and Wright there early on at least), and Herrera, Nimmo, Cecchini, and Dom Smith in the pipeline. I like our chances. But if Heyward's already off the table, and we're looking at a 2nd tier CFer to replace Cespedes and platoon with Lagares, then i'm not excited, particularly with the Cubs' young studs on the upswing.

[HahnSolo]

Any chance we can make an offer to pry Adam Jones from the Os? He's 30 and 3 years left on his deal at about $16mill per. Kind of feel like he'd fit in great in this lineup.

They'll need a catcher with Wieters leaving via FA (we have d'Arnaud & Plawecki)
They could use a starter (we have depth there�Matz?)
And a prospect (Nimmo?)

I have no idea if Matz/Plawecki/Nimmo would get me laughed off the phone or if that's giving up way too much. I realize Jones is one of their foundation guys, so they'll probably need to be blown away.

I don't know, maybe Jones isn't the right guy, but I'd kind of like the Mets to be working the trade angle more than the FA angle here.

[seawolf17]

HahnSolo wrote: Any chance we can make an offer to pry Adam Jones from the Os? He's 30 and 3 years left on his deal at about $16mill per. Kind of feel like he'd fit in great in this lineup. They'll need a catcher with Wieters leaving via FA (we have d'Arnaud & Plawecki) They could use a starter (we have depth there�Matz?) And a prospect (Nimmo?) I have no idea if Matz/Plawecki/Nimmo would get me laughed off the phone or if that's giving up way too much. I realize Jones is one of their foundation guys, so they'll probably need to be blown away. I don't know, maybe Jones isn't the right guy, but I'd kind of like the Mets to be working the trade angle more than the FA angle here.

I would do probably catcher/starter/young arm for Jones.

[Ceetar]

Jones strikes me as a guy who's power would dry up at Citi Field and he doesn't walk enough, which means most of his value is going to be defensive and you'd be getting him perhaps just as that starts to ebb?

[Edgy MD]

Vic Sage wrote: If Cespedes can play CF, then so can Heyward... and he has. Heyward has played a few hundred innings in CF over the last few years, so, while it hasn't been his primary position, it's not like he doesn't have recent MLB experience there. Upton, on the other hand, hasn't played CF at all, and is a little older, and is nowhere near as productive.

Sure, it's meaningful, but hardly definitive. Mets have gone with a few guys with similar resumes in center: Coleman and Cede�o come to mind. Whether he can be a full-timer or a most-timer there is still an open question, I think.

I'm not sure how we're getting that Justin Upton is nowhere near as productive. We're talking Justin, right?

[Vic Sage]

Upton's WAR over past 3 seasons = 3, 4, 3.6
Heyward = 3.4, 5.2, 6.0

I don't want to overstate the difference here, but looking at WAR, i'd say Upton has been a very productive and consistent corner OFer (and i'd be happy to have him), but that Heyward has been slightly better, is 2 years younger, is better defensively, throws better, runs better, and has major league experience in CF, and has not yet hit the offensive plateau that Upton seems to have.

[Edgy MD]

OK, I see the distinction here. You're using WAR, which incorporates defense, which gives Heyward the edge.

When you were using the phrase "nowhere near as productive," I was understanding it to be an offensive comparison.

[Vic Sage]

I don't know, maybe Jones isn't the right guy, but I'd kind of like the Mets to be working the trade angle more than the FA angle here.

i don't understand that view. Why give up players instead of $$, if you don't have to? How often does a 26-27 year old 5-tool stud OFer come onto the open market?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

HahnSolo wrote: Any chance we can make an offer to pry Adam Jones from the Os? He's 30 and 3 years left on his deal at about $16mill per. Kind of feel like he'd fit in great in this lineup. They'll need a catcher with Wieters leaving via FA (we have d'Arnaud & Plawecki) They could use a starter (we have depth there�Matz?) And a prospect (Nimmo?) I have no idea if Matz/Plawecki/Nimmo would get me laughed off the phone or if that's giving up way too much. I realize Jones is one of their foundation guys, so they'll probably need to be blown away. I don't know, maybe Jones isn't the right guy, but I'd kind of like the Mets to be working the trade angle more than the FA angle here.

I think this is an interesting angle.