Payroll 2016

[Centerfield]

It would be nice to know for the first time in how many years now that they didn't make a move or moves because of finances. The fans deserve more expensive opportunities met instead of brushed aside if they come the team's way. It's time to move on from that, or they should take their billion dollar profit and sell and just go away. When the opportunity arises, no more backing down because of finances. Got it. I agree.

Exactly. Sandy Alderson even hinted to that in his book:

�Madoff wasn�t even a topic of conversation in my interview for the Mets job. I didn�t raise it. Maybe I should have. The bottom line is, I would have taken the job anyway. It just added to the challenge.�

That's about as candid as you will ever see Sandy get. It's time to take away the challenge. It's time to make it an advantage.

If Jason Heyward wants Robinson Cano money, tell him to go fuck himself. But if he will sign for a reasonable value, time to go get him. Or another elite bat that will be reasonable.

We are an elite hitter or two away from being a favorite to go back to the WS. Go get him. Via free agency, trades etc., but don't let budget constraints stand in the way.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: If Jason Heyward wants Robinson Cano money, tell him to go fuck himself. But if he will sign for a reasonable value, time to go get him. Or another elite bat that will be reasonable.

Unless he signs someone merely good for 'great' money, there will be allusions to it being because of finances.

Cespedes, or Heyward, or whoever.

[Centerfield]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Centerfield wrote: Honestly speaking, I'm shocked that the rest of you aren't furious over this. I can't imagine anything the Mets could do that would make me "furious". Well, I guess I would be furious if I found out that they were slipping poison into baby food, or something like that. But I simply don't do anger or angst over the operations of a baseball team.

What if you found out the Mets got Fred and Barney fired from their Pebbles gig?

I should have qualified my post. I fully expect BG not to be furious.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

To get off this fight or whatever is going on here, has anyone read that BASEBALL MAVERICK book?

I admire the attempt but what a chore that thing is. I liked learning about the background on Alderson and stuff from Oakland but by the time he gets to the Mets its so bogged down with scattered details it barely tells a story at all -- recounting various interviews with Wheeler in Las Vegas, the 90-win thing, Duda in the clubhouse, all vaguely interesting in their own way but barely adding up to a unified story, other than the obvious point that the writer is way beyond objective on the subject.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Centerfield wrote: What if you found out the Mets got Fred and Barney fired from their Pebbles gig?

Good point! That would certainly do it!

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Is it weird that I'd rather they splash the pot in the international market (and not necessarily for the major-league-ready plug-and-plays, either)? I think whatever windfall they've got goes a lot further there, and that the new upper-minors talent deficit is more of a problem than any of the major-league-level concerns.

[Vic Sage]

Yes, it's easy to say "spend smart, not just for the sake of spending." The reality, however, is that sometimes, when you're thisclose, you have to take a chance and overpay a guy you think will be a difference maker. Because you're not going to get those guys at a discount, or even at a reasonable price, if the bidding gets intense. At that point, it should be a matter of "who", not "how much". And a big market team has the ability to take that chance because, if they're wrong, they have the resources to cut their losses and move on, and not get paralyzed by a bad contract. That is the advantage we're supposed to have over a KC, for example.

So, I'll give the Wilpons the benefit of the doubt and say, perhaps, the marginal and mid-tier FAs we've accumulated in recent years were because we just weren't "ready" yet... we weren't "thisclose". But now we've proven we ae. And they have the extra $$ from an exciting season and a deep post-season run. So lets see who they go after. Should they go after Cespedes for 7/$140M? Maybe not. I think his 5 week run from mid-August to mid-September was an aberration, not something to pay for, and he's a hacker with no clue what the strike zone is. But he's still a pretty good player overall, even if we can't bank on that sort of run again. The question remains whether he is the RIGHT player. That's the question, not "is he worth $140m"... value is all relative. He's worth (1) what a team is willing to pay him, and (2) what a team thinks he can add to put them over the top. I think he's worth more to a team that's close than to a team that's still rebuilding.

Cespedes' free swinging ways make me nervous, but I trust Sandy to make this call. The bottom line is, though, that if it's not Cespedes, then who? Not another "role player", that's who. An impact bat, even if the deal ends up bad down the road. Shit, ALL deals are bad down the road; players decline and break down. But we're here at the beginning of the road, with a pitching staff for the ages, and if the `Pons squander this opportunity because they won't take the risk to add an impact bat, CF and I will go down and set their limos on fire. No more excuses. If they don't have the resources, then they aren't prepared to own a team in NY. If they do, then they need to use them.

Mets 2016 - Go big or go home, Fred.

[Ceetar]

The Mets are already over the top. It's not a stretch to say figuring out how to maximize the health of Wright, d'Arnaud, Cuddyer, and Duda, all who had injury-related hits to their seasons, is more important than adding (another) top 30 hitter.

[Centerfield]

You know what? I take it all back. Ceetar is right.

Instead of investing in a middle of the order bat, let's spend the money on magic healing elixir.

[Vic Sage]

Well, that's ok then. The Wilpons are skilled at selling snake oil.

[Vic Sage]

Ceetar wrote: The Mets are already over the top. It's not a stretch to say figuring out how to maximize the health of Wright, d'Arnaud, Cuddyer, and Duda, all who had injury-related hits to their seasons, is more important than adding (another) top 30 hitter.

Of all the ceetarted things you've ever written here, this... well, this is another one. The way you "maximize the health" of those guys is to play them less or not at all. 3 of them are over 30, with no expectation of either greater health or significantly greater production on the horizon. and the 4th is a catcher with a resume splattered with injuries. Yes, by all means, instead of getting an impact bat, lets hope EVERYBODY has a great year!

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: You know what? I take it all back. Ceetar is right. Instead of investing in a middle of the order bat, let's spend the money on magic healing elixir.

Invest in smart trainers, manage rest time, etc. We don't actually need a 'middle of the order' bat because Wright, d'Arnaud, Duda, and Granderson are all that. Cuddyer's a good hitter. Signing one big bat doesn't help if we lose another, and thinking about the games where those guys might not play is important. Does a Zobrist or Kelly Johnson type play up in value to keep us from Campbell-type AB?

We should be more concerned positionally. We probably have someone that can play 2B between Flores and Tejada and Herrera, but is Lagares good enough for center? Does it hurt defensively too much to play Granderson there? or do we need to acquire one.

Is there a SS to be had? even at overpaying prices? Can you roll with Flores/Tejada if you upgrade somewhere else?

"Just overpay for a big bat" misses the whole point.

Vic Sage wrote: Ceetar wrote: The Mets are already over the top. It's not a stretch to say figuring out how to maximize the health of Wright, d'Arnaud, Cuddyer, and Duda, all who had injury-related hits to their seasons, is more important than adding (another) top 30 hitter. Of all the ceetarted things you've ever written here, this... well, this is another one. The way you "maximize the health" of those guys is to play them less or not at all. 3 of them are over 30, with no expectation of either greater health or significantly greater production on the horizon. and the 4th is a catcher with a resume splattered with injuries. Yes, by all means, instead of getting an impact bat, lets hope EVERYBODY has a great year!

yeah, nowhere did I say hope And your statement here actually reinforces my point. Signing one big bat that you're reasonably certain will have a good year here is not enough if you lose Wright to 150 AB of Campbell for lose Granderson for Kirk Nieuwenhuis for a month.

[Vic Sage]

And just for clarity, who is the (other) top 30 bat you think we have on our roster now? Granderson? Until this season, his last 3 years he hit .232, .229., and .227, and he'll be 35 next year. Yes, he had a terrific 2nd half this year, giving him a very solid year overall, and a great post-season. But please forgive me if i don't think he can carry the offense next year. In fact, he didn't carry it this year, with the team floating at .500 until the July trading deadline, despite his solid June-July.

IF you don't think Cespedes didn't have a seismic effect on this offense (which stopped producing at the same rate as it had been, when he cooled off), then we aren't watching the same team. And if we go into next season without a similarly impactful bat in the middle, we'll have similar problems scoring runs.

[Ceetar]

Vic Sage wrote: And just for clarity, who is the (other) top 30 bat you think we have on our roster now? Granderson? Until this season, his last 3 years he hit .232, .229., and .227, and he'll be 35 next year. Yes, he had a terrific 2nd half this year, giving him a very solid year overall, and a great post-season. But please forgive me if i don't think he can carry the offense next year. In fact, he didn't carry it this year, with the team floating at .500 until the July trading deadline, despite his solid June-July. IF you don't think Cespedes didn't have a seismic effect on this offense (which stopped producing at the same rate as it had been, when he cooled off), then we aren't watching the same team. And if we go into next season without a similarly impactful bat in the middle, we'll have similar problems scoring runs.

Yes, batting average. There's a stat that tells us anything useful.

[Vic Sage]

When a guy goes from a .270-.280 hitter early in his career, and ends up hitting .220-.230 over a sustained period later in his career, its meaningful. He got 22 more hits this year in 30 more plate appearances (12 of them for extra bases), so yes, going from .230 to .260 was meaningful, and he's just as likely to turn back into a .230 pumpkin next year at age 35 as he is to sustain this hit rate...MORE likely, frankly, because that's what older players do in the post-steroid era.

[Ceetar]

his BABIP was pretty much in line with his career averages, so I'd suspect his batting average to remain roughly where it was.

He cut out the Yankee strikeouts and walked at a career high rate. This seems to have allowed him to buy into the Mets philosophy of hitting your pitch and what not. He saw more fastballs this year, probably as a result of patience. He also saw the fastest average fastball of his career (I suspect everyone did) which gives a good sign that he's not losing bat speed. He didn't make less contact. What he did was stop swinging at crap. He swung less in general, swung and missed 30% less, and made the same amount of contact. This suggests the ISO bump in power was a result of the patience, was a very obvious and conscience decision and speaks well to him being able to repeat it.

In 2014 he hit a lot of balls at people. He was unlucky and also fished more, but his overall numbers offensively were still good.

Nothing about this suggests we should expect a dropoff from Granderson.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Ceetar wrote: Signing one big bat that you're reasonably certain will have a good year here is not enough if you lose Wright to 150 AB of Campbell for lose Granderson for Kirk Nieuwenhuis for a month.

Having that additional "one big bat" on the team doesn't prevent Wright from getting hurt, but it certainly gives you more depth if he does get hurt.

[Edgy MD]

The problem is signing a guy and convincing yourself that he's one big bat and he's not. The idea that the team can absorb mistakes and move on is appealing, but for all teams, that thinking has its limits, and the critical mass of mistakes was a big part of what got the team in the mess in the first place. So I'll take wise over aggressive, no matter what the market size.

I think they're going to be fine. And if they don't find their guy by opening day, they can keep looking as they did in 2015.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Ceetar wrote: Signing one big bat that you're reasonably certain will have a good year here is not enough if you lose Wright to 150 AB of Campbell for lose Granderson for Kirk Nieuwenhuis for a month. Having that additional "one big bat" on the team doesn't prevent Wright from getting hurt, but it certainly gives you more depth if he does get hurt.

Are you signing a guy that can play third? Because I'd rather roll with Cuddyer-Lagares-Granderson and have a Murphy or Zobrist type guy who can play 40 games at third than Cespedes and 40 games of Eric Campbell or Casey McGehee or Aaron Hill.

Much like last year, I'm looking for a more rounded lineup that features less holes than one big bopper. Granderson and Duda and hopefully Wright and d'Arnaud are very good players already and we've got other useful players to sprinkle in defensively and platooningly.

And yes, like Edgy points out, a 'big bat' doesn't always end up being a big bat. There aren't a lot of locks out there that are even available by trade, where overpay has a whole other meaning, nevermind by free agency.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Cuddyer-Lagares-Granderson?

I assume you meant Conforto-Lagares-Granderson.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Cuddyer-Lagares-Granderson? I assume you meant Conforto-Lagares-Granderson.

We'll see how Spring goes. I'm not handing Conforto the job based off 3 good weeks back in August.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: The problem is signing a guy and convincing yourself that he's one big bat and he's not. The idea that the team can absorb mistakes and move on is appealing, but for all teams, that thinking has its limits, and the critical mass of mistakes was a big part of what got the team in the mess in the first place. So I'll take wise over aggressive, no matter what the market size. I think they're going to be fine. And if they don't find their guy by opening day, they can keep looking as they did in 2015.

I agree we should not sign a guy who is not actually good. I'm all for prudent spending. I just want to make sure the owners give Sandy the ability to do so.

You know, it's not even really about actual spending. It's about the Wilpons giving Sandy the ability to spend. Because I trust he will invest it wisely.

Wise should always win out over aggressive, but I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. Sometimes it is wise to be aggressive.

Mid-season moves are fine, but it's important to remember that these also have a price. And mid-season moves require prospects. For an organization that has said it's focused on scouting and development, moving prospects does not align with that theory. In the winter, players are available for just cash.

Also keep in mind that Yoenis Cespedes might not be available in July 2016. And even if he is, we no longer have Michael Fullmer to trade for him.

I think we will be fine too. I like the chatter we are hearing coming out of Flushing. Sandy knows we need offense and has hinted at an uptick in payroll.

[Centerfield]

Ceetar wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: Cuddyer-Lagares-Granderson? I assume you meant Conforto-Lagares-Granderson. We'll see how Spring goes. I'm not handing Conforto the job based off 3 good weeks back in August.

Agreed! Let's hand the job to Cuddyer based upon his 4 atrocious months instead!

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: Also keep in mind that Yoenis Cespedes might not be available in July 2016. And even if he is, we no longer have Michael Fullmer to trade for him.

I'm not sure there's someone available even this offseason who had as good as year as Cespedes last year.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Centerfield wrote: Ceetar wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: Cuddyer-Lagares-Granderson? I assume you meant Conforto-Lagares-Granderson. We'll see how Spring goes. I'm not handing Conforto the job based off 3 good weeks back in August. Agreed! Let's hand the job to Cuddyer based upon his 4 atrocious months instead!

So he did mean Cuddyer instead of Conforto. He's not counting on Conforto and still doesn't think the Mets should add a bat.

I don't think I'll be starting a Ceetar-for-GM campaign any time soon.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: So he did mean Cuddyer instead of Conforto. He's not counting on Conforto and still doesn't think the Mets should add a bat. I don't think I'll be starting a Ceetar-for-GM campaign any time soon.

We're talking about day one.

And I didn't say the Mets shouldn't add a bat, I said trying to target a 'middle of the order' bat is probably a poor way to go about things.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Beaters seem to think Muffy and Cespedes will go, we'll go get a LH-hitting center fielder to platoon with Lagares (Rasmus?), and pick up a LH hitting infielder and maybe some bullpenners.

Rasmus will hit some home runs but he's never been a great on-base guy. Plus he's weird.

I am wondering if and how Cecchini and Nimmo could fit into plans.

[Centerfield]

Ceetar wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: So he did mean Cuddyer instead of Conforto. He's not counting on Conforto and still doesn't think the Mets should add a bat. I don't think I'll be starting a Ceetar-for-GM campaign any time soon. We're talking about day one. And I didn't say the Mets shouldn't add a bat, I said trying to target a 'middle of the order' bat is probably a poor way to go about things.

Agreed. No good hitters for us!

You know, instead of magic healing elixir, it might be cheaper to hire Mr. Miyagi to do that handrubbing thing.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: Ceetar wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: So he did mean Cuddyer instead of Conforto. He's not counting on Conforto and still doesn't think the Mets should add a bat. I don't think I'll be starting a Ceetar-for-GM campaign any time soon. We're talking about day one. And I didn't say the Mets shouldn't add a bat, I said trying to target a 'middle of the order' bat is probably a poor way to go about things. Agreed. No good hitters for us! You know, instead of magic healing elixir, it might be cheaper to hire Mr. Miyagi to do that handrubbing thing.

again, do you have a suggestion of a good hitter that's attainable and fits?

I mean, we're basically talking Heyward and Justin Upton right?

[Edgy MD]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Rasmus will hit some home runs but he's never been a great on-base guy. Plus he's weird.

He's teenager-who-goes-trick-or-treating-long-past-age-appropriateness-without-a-costume weird.

He's sets-fires-in-the-abandoned-lot-with-lighter-fluid weird.

He's shows-up-to-parties-everybody-agreed-explicitly-beforehand-he-was-not-to-be-told-about-and-even-though-you-kept-your-eye-on-him-your-mom's-jewelry-is-missing-two-weeks-later-because-he-was-only-casing-the-place-for-a-return-visit weird.

[fimg=550]http://cdn23.us1.fansshare.com/photos/colbyrasmus/colby-rasmus-959737647.jpg[/fimg]

He's a suburban nightmare.