Return of the NHOP

[Frayed Knot]

Jose Fernandez expected to return to the Marlins rotation on Saturday, which means:
A) the Nats get him as they'll be in Miami for the weekend
we won't as our series with them follows right after
C) they might get him AGAIN in his very next start (Sept 17)

I think we've missed him every time this year (hell, he's only made 7 starts). In fact we've gotten lucky on a bunch of occasions this season in missing aces.

[Edgy MD]

That's another reason yesterday was so hewj. The Mets haven't been tested in fire as much as some other teams � much less been tested in fire and come out on top.

[Lefty Specialist]

Frayed Knot wrote: Jose Fernandez expected to return to the Marlins rotation on Saturday, which means: A) the Nats get him as they'll be in Miami for the weekend we won't as our series with them follows right after C) they might get him AGAIN in his very next start (Sept 17) I think we've missed him every time this year (hell, he's only made 7 starts). In fact we've gotten lucky on a bunch of occasions this season in missing aces.

That's a big deal. When he's pitched, he's been lights out. And if the Marlins can cuff the Mets around, the least they can do is cuff around the Nats a bit, too.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Hell, I'm not going to wait until tomorrow morning to post this! In the second game of the series in Washington the Mets roar back from a 7-1 deficit to win 8-7. This Nationals loss has to be categorized as a "cock punch". Magic number drops from 21 to 19, the NHOP drops to its lowest point of the season, going from .420 to .396.

At worst, the Mets will leave Washington with a 5-game lead, and that's pretty damn good. And they have a chance to make that a 7-game lead with tomorrow's game, which would be a season high.

This series, which could have spelled disaster, now most definitely won't.

Go to your calendar and draw a big happy face on September 8, 2015.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396

[Benjamin Grimm]

From Baseball Prospectus: Mets NL East odds go from 90.3% to 94.7% with yesterday's win over the Nationals. Wild card odds remain at 0.1%.

World Championship odds for division leaders:

[list:rsjeccpl]Dodgers 18.7%
Blue Jays 17.0%
Astros 12.9%
Mets 9.9%
Royals 9.3%
Cardinals 8.8%[/list:u:rsjeccpl]

NL East Tragic Numbers: Phillies 1, Braves 2, Marlins 5, Nationals 19.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: NL East Tragic Numbers: Phillies 1, Braves 2, Marlins 5, Nationals 19.

Phillies win over Braves and Mets win, we get a two-fer on the elimination front.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Things were starting to look a little dicey a few days ago. The Mets had lost two of three in Miami as the Braves were sweeping a four games series against Atlanta. As this series in DC was about to start, the Mets were 4 games ahead of the Nationals and, by today, could have had their lead shrunk to a single game.

But that didn't happen. At all! With the conclusion of this invigorating sweep of the Nationals on their turf, the lead has grown to a season-high 7 games, the magic number has dropped to 17, and the NHOP, which was at .442 at the conclusion of Sunday's action, has quickly plummeted to .370.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370

[Frayed Knot]

10-13 would force the Nats to go 17-6 just to force a tie.
And if we go 10-13 vs the sked we've got in front of us then we deserve to get our asses scared of needing to win a play-in game.

[Ceetar]

Phillies are done.

[Benjamin Grimm]

For the past couple of weeks I've been looking ahead to the morning of September 10, using this date as a touchstone that would allow us to contemplate the task ahead once the three-game series in Washington was behind us. The verdict: things look awfully good right now.

My unofficial (and fairly modest) goal for the Mets is to get the magic number reduced to 13 or less by the end of Sunday's action.

Baseball Prospectus update: The Mets odds to win the National League East are now at 97.6%. Odds for the wild card are 0.0%, but the Mets overall playoff odds, which is usually the sum of the two, is at 97.7%. (This is, I'm sure, due to rounding.)

World Championship odds for division leaders:

Dodgers 18.5%
Blue Jays 16.2%
Astros 14.4%
Mets 10.3%
Royals 9.4%
Cardinals 8.8%

NL East Tragic Numbers: [crossout]Phillies[/crossout], Braves 1, Marlins 4, Nationals 17.

The Mets, by the way, are guaranteed to wake up in first place on Thursday, September 17.


Upcoming schedule for Mets and Nationals:

	Mets	Nationals
September 10	At Atlanta
September 11	At Atlanta	At Miami
September 12	At Atlanta	At Miami
September 13	At Atlanta	At Miami
September 14	Miami	At Philadelphia
September 15	Miami	At Philadelphia
September 16	Miami	At Philadelphia
September 17		Miami
September 18	New York (AL)	Miami
September 19	New York (AL)	Miami
September 20	New York (AL)	Miami
September 21	Atlanta	Baltimore
September 22	Atlanta	Baltimore
September 23	Atlanta	Baltimore
September 24	At Cincinnati
September 25	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 26	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 27	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 28		Cincinnati
September 29	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
September 30	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
October 1	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
October 2	Washington	At Mets
October 3	Washington	At Mets
October 4	Washington	At Mets

[Centerfield]

I like that we will likely personally eliminate Atlanta this weekend.

Also, depending on how things break, we may be able to follow that up by personally eliminating the Marlins right afterwards.

[Edgy MD]

I had some gastric pain last weekend where it seemed like I was trying to personally eliminate Atlanta. Don't ask.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: I had some gastric pain last weekend where it seemed like I was trying to personally eliminate Atlanta. Don't ask.

sounds awfully brave of you.

[Fman99]

Centerfield wrote: I like that we will likely personally eliminate Atlanta this weekend. Also, depending on how things break, we may be able to follow that up by personally eliminating the Marlins right afterwards.

So, what you're saying is, kill KILL KILL?

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Nationals had the day off yesterday and the Mets won in Atlanta. The magic number drops to 16, and the NHOP continues to plummet, going from .370 to .356, a new season low. The Mets lead the National League East by 7.5 games, with 22 games remaining on the schedule.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356

[Lefty Specialist]

Edgy MD wrote: I had some gastric pain last weekend where it seemed like I was trying to personally eliminate Atlanta. Don't ask.

Probably should have taken some Mylanta.

[Edgy MD]

That's pretty good.

[Lefty Specialist]

It was a hanging slider. Had to swing.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Baseball Prospectus update: The Mets odds for winning the NL East are now at 98.8%. They're at 0.0% for the wild card. (The Nationals and Giants each have less than 1 per cent chance at the wild card. The only teams with significant wild card odds are in the NL Central: Cardinals 13.4%, Pirates 88.7%, and the Cubs, 97.1%. Interesting that the Cubs, who are 2.5 games behind Pittsburgh and 7 games behind St. Louis, have the best wild card odds. Of course, the thing that reduces the Cardinals' odds of winning a wild card berth is their likelihood of winning the division title. Their odds for the NL Central title are currently at 86.6%.)

World Championship odds for current division leaders. Mets have reached a new high, of 11.1%. Their most likely first-round opponent, the Dodgers, have the best odds of all.

Dodgers 18.7%
Blue Jays 16.2%
Astros 14.8%
Mets 11.1%
Royals 9.0%
Cardinals 8.4%


NL East Tragic Numbers: [crossout:3afptlu9]Phillies[/crossout:3afptlu9], [crossout:3afptlu9]Braves[/crossout:3afptlu9], Marlins 3, Nationals 16.

[Benjamin Grimm]

What's there to say? Mets win in Atlanta. Nationals lose in Miami. The division lead grows to 8.5 games. The magic number drops from 16 to 14. The NHOP takes another dive as well, from .356 to .326, a new season low.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326

[Lefty Specialist]

Only 8 in the loss column, though.

Tonight was the first time I allowed myself to say out loud in front of witnesses, "Yeah, they've got this."

[Benjamin Grimm]

Baseball Prospectus update: The Mets playoff odds have risen to a point where they can no longer get significantly higher. Odds to win the NL East are now at 99.3%. Nationals are at 0.7% for the division, 0.1% for the wild card.

World Championship odds for current division leaders:

[list:2n3if46r]Blue Jays 17.9%
Dodgers 17.6%
Astros 13.8%
Mets 10.9%
Royals 9.0%
Cardinals 8.7%[/list:u:2n3if46r]

Looking at that list, a seemingly random list of American and National League teams, kind of reminds me of a list of team names in a local Little League.

NL East Tragic Numbers: [crossout:2n3if46r]Phillies[/crossout:2n3if46r], [crossout:2n3if46r]Braves[/crossout:2n3if46r], Marlins 2, Nationals 14.

In the race for home-field advantage in the NLDS, the Mets (80-61) are only a half game behind the Dodgers (80-60).

[Benjamin Grimm]

This thread is quickly becoming rather pointless, but I'll see it through to the end anyway.

Once again, the Mets win and the Nationals lose. The division lead is up to 9.5 games, the magic number drops to 12, and the NHOP takes yet another steep dive, from .326 to .293.

The NHOP is, for the first time this year, lower than at any point in the ill-fated 2007 season. The last time the Mets had an NHOP lower than .293 was in 2006 when they succeeded in getting it all the way down to zero.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326
September 12	81-61	71-70	9.5	12	41	0.293

[Centerfield]

It's fun to monitor anyway. The only drama left for me is hoping that the lead will stretch enough that the Mets clinch at home before leaving on the last road trip of the season.

[Frayed Knot]

It's never pointless until it's pointless. Follow it through.

The difference between this year and 2007 (well, one of several actually) is that the infamous 7 game lead was followed by an off-day (in which the Phils won) and then a three-game series with the Phils where we got swept, so the 7 game lead was cut in half in less than 4 days (and was dropped to 1.5 two days later). This year is not only already bigger but it grows by the day and with no head to head until the final series it has so much less of a chance to follow the same pattern.

9.5 w/20 to go.
And, btw, happy non-losing season for the first time in seven years as tonight was our 81st win.

[Centerfield]

Those head-to-head series can really swing things drastically. Hard to believe that less than a week ago, there was a legitimate fear that the Nats could trim the lead to 1 game.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Baseball Prospectus update: Mets are now at 99.9% to win the division. (That's pretty good, isn't it?) World Championship odds hit a new high, at 11.3%.

World Championship odds for current division leaders:

[list:3ih6gkq1]Blue Jays 19.5%
Dodgers 17.8%
Astros 13.1%
Mets 11.3%
Royals 8.9%
Cardinals 7.5%[/list:u:3ih6gkq1]

NL East Tragic Numbers: [crossout:3ih6gkq1]Phillies[/crossout:3ih6gkq1], [crossout:3ih6gkq1]Braves[/crossout:3ih6gkq1], Marlins 1, Nationals 12.

[dinosaur jesus]

I'm baffled by the difference in the World Series odds between the Mets and Dodgers. A series between them seems like a tossup--edge to the Dodgers, I guess, in strength of schedule, but not much else to distinguish them. Is it because of the Mets' terrible record (3-17) against the Central Division teams they'd face in the second round? Has to be; but the Dodgers are only 6-11 against those teams.

[batmagadanleadoff]

dinosaur jesus wrote: I'm baffled by the difference in the World Series odds between the Mets and Dodgers. A series between them seems like a tossup--edge to the Dodgers, I guess, in strength of schedule, but not much else to distinguish them. Is it because of the Mets' terrible record (3-17) against the Central Division teams they'd face in the second round? Has to be; but the Dodgers are only 6-11 against those teams.

I was thinking about this same thing yesterday. My guess, which hasn't even convinced me, the guesser, is strength of schedule -- that the Mets play in an awful division and won a disproportionately high number of games against bad teams and the Nats, who were obviously compromised this year. I got nothing else.

I'm not even worried about a Dodger home field advantage. The Mets flametrowers should benefit from LA's legendary pitching mound as much as any other staff in baseball.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets other NHOP, the number of necessary happy outcomes to end the season in a tie with the Dodgers (and thus ensuring home field advantage in the NLDS) is 21 (magic number to tie the Dodgers) divided by 41 (number of combined games remaining). Or, to put that more numerically, .512.