Return of the NHOP

[Frayed Knot]

I forgot to MM-bop our NHOP this morning. Needless to say it wasn't a good night last night for NHOP-ping.
On the other hand the Dodgers are still in the position where they have to virtually run the table unless we finish up with a 1-4 or 0-5 kind of deal.

Date	Mets Record	Dodgers Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
September 26	88-67	87-67	0.5	7	15	0.467
September 27	89-67	87-68	1.5	5	13	0.385
September 28	89-67	87-69	2.0	4	12	0.333
September 29	89-68	88-69	1.0	4	10	0.400
September 30	@ Philadelphia	@ SFG			8
October 1	@ Philadelphia	@ SFG			6
October 2	Nationals	Padres			4
October 3	Nationals	Padres			2
October 4	Nationals	Padres			0

[Frayed Knot]

The SF Giants continue to be our temporary bestest friends.

Date	Mets Record	Dodgers Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
September 26	88-67	87-67	0.5	7	15	0.467
September 27	89-67	87-68	1.5	5	13	0.385
September 28	89-67	87-69	2.0	4	12	0.333
September 29	89-68	88-69	1.0	4	10	0.400
September 30	89-69	88-70	1.0	3	8	0.375
October 1	@ Philadelphia	@ SFG			6
October 2	Nationals	Padres			4
October 3	Nationals	Padres			2
October 4	Nationals	Padres			0

[Benjamin Grimm]

Dodgers won today. Home field advantage is a little more tenuous than it looked a few days ago. Hopefully, win or lose, the Mets will be able to play all three games against Washington this weekend so they don't have to play makeup games on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, which would be ridiculous.

[Frayed Knot]

I was going to say how the math is pretty simple at this point. Six games remaining, three have to go our way, so our odds of hosting the three games in round 1 are 50/50

Date	Mets Record	Dodgers Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
September 26	88-67	87-67	0.5	7	15	0.467
September 27	89-67	87-68	1.5	5	13	0.385
September 28	89-67	87-69	2.0	4	12	0.333
September 29	89-68	88-69	1.0	4	10	0.400
September 30	89-69	88-70	1.0	3	8	0.375
October 1	89-70	89-70	---	3	6	0.500
October 2	Nationals	Padres			4
October 3	Nationals	Padres			2
October 4	Nationals	Padres			0

... except that they're not really. Sure, three of the six games have to go our way, but there are a number of ways the results from six games can end up, 16 different ways* to be precise, and 10 of them wind up with the Mets in the lead.
So NHOP is a bit misleading here. I mean it's accurate as far as what it says, but it's a bit misleading in what it implies.

* Basically the Mets can come out of this weekend with 0, 1, 2, or 3 wins, as can the Dodgers. Four possibilities each: 4 x 4 = 16 [it can also be stated as 2 teams with 4 possibilities each: 2 ^4 = 16]
10 of those 16 combos get the Mets in: Mets get swept + Dodgers get swept (1). Mets win one + Dodgers win none or one (2). Mets win twice + Dodgers win none, one, or two (3), Mets sweep + Dodgers do whatever (4). [1 + 2 + 3 + 4 = 10]
That jacks our odds up to 0.625 of seeing home baseball next Friday. Or, if you want to get a little more geeky about it and figure odds of individual games (series going 2-1 or 1-2 are more likely than sweeps either way) then I get it at more like 0.656 in our favor.



Just a little geekdom to brighten your soggy Friday.