Postseason Musings

[Guest sharpie]

and use the Familia/Clippard/Gilmartin/Torres/Verrett/Robles as your pen

Addison Reed will almost surely make the pen. Either Torres, Verrett or Robles will be left off.

[Edgy MD]

I don't think it's about composure. The guy was the Mets' closer and doing perfectly all right in that role when he went down.

But he's had two consecutive devastating injuries leading to surgery and been out most of two years. Finding yourself again, and finding out what among all your physical tools and all your mental bullshit works for you, and doing it against the best competition in the majors, is a challenge � all while trying to keep those injuries out of your mind, even as you feel the scar tissue popping and wondering if you're reinsuring yourself. And it's more of a challenge for a reliever who gets work on a catch-as-catch-can basis, in situations you can't predict, rather than as a starter who has the parameters of his re-entry tightly controlled.

[MFS62]

Sorry, I should have included more of the quote. We were talking about Niese. Not Parnell.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, that makes sense. Sorry.

I really don't even want to think about these decisions. Fans, by their nature, make the quickest judgments. And there's going to be 30 days to make 30 judgments by the end of the season.

Post-season rosters are for post-season teams, and the Mets ain't one yet.

[HahnSolo]

seawolf17 wrote: We were talking about this at the bus stop this morning. I think you have to go Harvey-deGrom-Thor-Colon in the rotation, consider Matz your fifth starter/long guy, and use the Familia/Clippard/Gilmartin/Torres/Verrett/Robles as your pen. Start Colon and Syndergaard at Citi Field in whatever combination you want. The question mark is Niese.

I bolded that part of your statement�Mets are only 2 in the loss column behind the Dodgers. What if they get home field for the NLDS? Do you really want to go Colon/Thor in games 1 and 2 holding back Harvey and deGrom?

I agree that Thor should get a start at Citi based on his home/road, so I'd be fine with him going game 2 after either Harvey or deGrom and holding the other for game 3 out west.

[Lefty Specialist]

We really need to see how things shake out down the stretch. Injuries are always a possibility. If the post-season were to start today, Niese would be left without a chair. But we haven't seen Matz throw a pitch in the bigs in two months. We're all assuming he'll be lights out, but he might not be.

Two weeks ago I was ready to give Colon a basket of flowers and a ticket home. Suddenly he's sharp again. So there's still a month of ebb and flow here.

Sadly, you don't get the feeling Parnell's going to put it together, though, and will be on the outside looking in. Reed/Clippard/Familia are locked in as the 7/8/9 guys. The rest of 'em, it's Hunger Games time.

[Edgy MD]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Injuries are always a possibility.

A likelihood, even!

[Gwreck]

HahnSolo wrote: I bolded that part of your statement�Mets are only 2 in the loss column behind the Dodgers. What if they get home field for the NLDS? Do you really want to go Colon/Thor in games 1 and 2 holding back Harvey and deGrom?

Not to mention that you could/would be facing Kershaw and Greinke in those two games.

I do like the idea of starting Syndergaard in either Game 2 (if Mets have home-field) or Game 3 (if they don't).

[Benjamin Grimm]

Me too. (Assuming that Syndergaard is in the postseason rotation. We'll have to see how his September goes.)

[Gwreck]

One still-unaddressed question is how many relievers the Mets choose to carry in the postseason.
Having only 4 starters seems clear but do you want 6 or 7 relievers behind them?

The lock position players (14) will be D'Arnaud, Backup Catcher, Duda, Flores, Johnson, Murphy, Tejada, Uribe, Wright, Cespedes, Conforto, Cuddyer, Granderson, Lagares.

There would seemingly be room for 1 additional position player (my guess is a tossup between Eric Young Jr. and Nieuwenhuis) if the Mets only go with 6 relievers.

[Ceetar]

I don't know if Uribe and Johnson are locks, or should be. The Mets will go with at least 7 relievers, maybe 8.

[Gwreck]

They were carrying 7 relievers and 5 starters prior to roster expansion. Why do you think they would now need to carry more relievers in the postseason?

[Edgy MD]

Johnson is the Lock of the Week!



What can I say? When you're right 52% of the time, you're wrong 48% of the time!

[Ceetar]

Gwreck wrote: They were carrying 7 relievers and 5 starters prior to roster expansion. Why do you think they would now need to carry more relievers in the postseason?

7 relievers is standard. You're losing a starter, so the question becomes do you add a bench guy or a reliever? The Mets starters are good so I suspect they'll go bench guy, but who knows.

[Gwreck]

7 relievers is standard for the regular season when the team is playing 6-7 games a week.

First round schedule looks like this:

Sunday 10/4: Last game of regular season
Mon 10/5: Off
Tue 10/6: Off
Wed 10/7: Off
Thu 10/8: Off
Fri 10/9: Game 1
Sat 10/10: Game 2
Sun 10/11: Off
Mon 10/12: Game 3
Tue 10/13: Game 4
Wed 10/15: Off
Thu 10/16: Game 5

I don't see reliever #7 needing to work very much in a schedule like that.

[Gwreck]

My recollection is that the 2000 Mets used a 6-man bullpen: Benitez, Franco, Wendell, Cook, White and Rusch.
The 2006 Mets used a 7-man: Wagner, Heilman, Bradford, Feliciano, Mota, Oliver and Hernandez/Ring - although Reliever #7 did not pitch in the division series.

[Ceetar]

just randomly checking the first two teams I picked, Dodgers and Giants, both went with 12 pitchers for the NLDS last season.

[Gwreck]

Fair enough. But do you think the Mets need that 7th or 8th reliever?

I would probably embrace that idea more if the Mets had an extra bullpen weapon that they were planning on using for 1-batter appearances but they don't really have any of those relievers. Hence I think they'll get greater utility out of having more position players and a deeper bench.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think so too. And remember, if they have the 12-man pitching staff in the postseason (as in the regular season), but only use four starters, then they do have an 8-man bullpen.

[Ceetar]

Well, if games get out of hand a pitcher is ineffective or even just taxed and exits earlier, you stress your bullpen more. Having the deeper safety net there is more valuable in general than the extra hitter (or pinch runner in this case probably)

Giants last year Lincecum pitched 1.2 IP. (aside, Madison Bumgarner through 52.2 and no one else through more than 21)

Gary Brown got 1 PA. Joaquin Arias got 4. I think the potential for the extra reliever to be more valuable is worth carrying one.

But yeah, a whole month worth of games. maybe Nieuwenhuis is hammering the ball or something. Or one of the relievers is pitching lights out and it's obvious you should include him.

[Gwreck]

The problem with that argument is that if "games get out of hand" with any regularity it's not going to matter very much about the bullpen being stressed because they won't be winning the series in that case.

I could see an argument that a roster of deGrom-Harvey-Syndergaard-Niese and bullpen of Familia-Clippard-Reed-Gilmartin-Matz-Colon is a little short and could use one more (ie. Robles). I don't see a circumstance in which any more than 11 total pitchers are required.

[Edgy MD]

Well, maybe a game gets out of hand on the plus side, and you want to pull your starting pitcher so you can bring him back faster. The Randy Johnson Maneuver. You put in your back end buttress guy.

Vic Black, by the way, not a happy campesino.

[seawolf17]

Gwreck wrote: One still-unaddressed question is how many relievers the Mets choose to carry in the postseason. Having only 4 starters seems clear but do you want 6 or 7 relievers behind them? The lock position players (14) will be D'Arnaud, Backup Catcher, Duda, Flores, Johnson, Murphy, Tejada, Uribe, Wright, Cespedes, Conforto, Cuddyer, Granderson, Lagares. There would seemingly be room for 1 additional position player (my guess is a tossup between Eric Young Jr. and Nieuwenhuis) if the Mets only go with 6 relievers.

Gwreck wrote: The problem with that argument is that if "games get out of hand" with any regularity it's not going to matter very much about the bullpen being stressed because they won't be winning the series in that case. I could see an argument that a roster of deGrom-Harvey-Syndergaard-Niese and bullpen of Familia-Clippard-Reed-Gilmartin-Matz-Colon is a little short and could use one more (ie. Robles). I don't see a circumstance in which any more than 11 total pitchers are required.

I agree on an eleven-man staff, but I wouldn't be surprised if they went with 12 because That's What You're Supposed To Do These Days.

I don't see Addison Reed as anywhere near a lock yet. He's a spare part right now, although he looked good last night.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

I don't think a team really needs more than 4 starting pitchers in the postseason. So a 5th starter either joins the bullpen or gets dropped from the roster. Am I the only one here that feels more comfortable with Colon on the mound than Neise? Neise just seems to get rattled and lose focus when the opposition scores a run or two. Bartolo may not have the greatest stuff on the staff, but he seems mentally tougher than John. Bartolo will battle.

I don't think you need more than 7 relievers to go with the 4 starting pitchers. It seems that most managers ride their best pitchers for as long as possible in the post season. The top 3 starters generally pitch most of the innings so they can hand the game to the top 2-3 relievers to close it out. The remaining relievers are generally used situationally, for extra inning games, or when a starter has a poor outing.

I think Collins likes the additional flexibility that the added bench player provides him. He is utilizing a rotating platoon at several different positions in order to exploit matchups he feels comfortable with.

Of course there is still a lot of baseball yet to be played in the regular season. I think there are a number of pitchers and position players that could play their way onto (or off) the postseason roster in the final coming week of the season.

[Zvon]

Rockin' Doc wrote: Neise just seems to get rattled and lose focus when the opposition scores a run or two. Bartolo may not have the greatest stuff on the staff, but he seems mentally tougher than John. Bartolo will battle.

Colon is unfazeable. Niese is the opposite.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

You only need 3 starters for the NLDS, because deGrom, Harvery, and Syndergard will lead the Mets to a sweep. Then in the NLCS and World Series, those three will win the first three games and Colon can start game 4 for those sweeps. Very simple.

[seawolf17]

Mets � Willets Point wrote: You only need 3 starters for the NLDS, because deGrom, Harvery, and Syndergard will lead the Mets to a sweep. Then in the NLCS and World Series, those three will win the first three games and Colon can start game 4 for those sweeps. Very simple.

I'm all in with this plan.

[Edgy MD]

Fourth quarter boy now has a 4.18 ERA.

And a slick way of throwing to first.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Colon in, Batman-in-bubble-wrap out. Matz as alternate/pen-ammo. Obviously.

[Benjamin Grimm]

We'll have to see how he pitches in September, but I'm hoping that Matz gets into that postseason rotation, should there be one.