Irrational Exuberance

[Centerfield]

I find I'm so excited that I can barely sit still or hold a thought in my head. I think it's the excitement only a contender can feel. A contender at a start of a stretch run whose conclusion is uncertain. I hope our young pitching can hold up down the stretch. I hope we hit enough and catch the ball. I hope the post-season is as glorious as it has been in my dreams. I hope.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

HahnSolo wrote: I liken my exuberance to that of a long road trip to someplace cool, and you finally start to see road signs for your destination. Content to know we're close to where we want to be, excited for the possibilities, but subdued because I know there's a chance we'll hit traffic before we get there.

Well-worded!

[Ceetar]

Washington has had their horses back for a while now and they still are 3-7 L10. The Mets have what they need to win this division, and that's what's got me exuberant and saving pennies for a postseason game.

[TransMonk]

Ceetar wrote: Washington has had their horses back for a while now and they still are 3-7 L10. The Mets have what they need to win this division, and that's what's got me exuberant and saving pennies for a postseason game.

While I mostly agree, my main concern is the tiring of the young arms down the stretch. Not just the innings cap that may be impending for some of them, but a worry that their effectiveness may diminish over the next 50-some games.

What happened to the six-man rotation? Are they really waiting for Matz to return before re-instating it? I'm not sure that is going to cut it. I would hate to get to the last two weeks of the season and watch the team go down in flames because the young guns are laboring.

[Lefty Specialist]

Centerfield wrote: I find I'm so excited that I can barely sit still or hold a thought in my head. I think it's the excitement only a contender can feel. A contender at a start of a stretch run whose conclusion is uncertain. I hope our young pitching can hold up down the stretch. I hope we hit enough and catch the ball. I hope the post-season is as glorious as it has been in my dreams. I hope.

It's a feeling we're allowed to get occasionally. 1988. 1999. 2000. 2006.

1986 was a foregone conclusion by now.

But we've also had this feeling in 1998, 2001, 2007 and 2008 and it didn't turn out well.

So while I'm enjoying the fun of being relevant for the first time in 7 years, I'm also bracing for the possibility of the sharp smack across the chin. I'm a Mets fan. It's what I do.

[batmagadanleadoff]

If the Mets don't win the pennant this year, we will officially be in the longest stretch in franchise history without a World Series appearance.

Not as bad as the Cubs, though.

[Benjamin Grimm]

We're already there. The Mets have already gone 14 years without appearing in a World Series. (2001 through 2014). The previous high was 13. (1987 through 1999) Before that it was 12 years. (1974 through 1985). If this pattern holds, the Mets will win the pennant in 2015 but that will be followed by a 15-year drought, ending with a pennant in 2031.

[seawolf17]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: We're already there. The Mets have already gone 14 years without appearing in a World Series. (2001 through 2014). The previous high was 13. (1987 through 1999) Before that it was 12 years. (1974 through 1985). If this pattern holds, the Mets will win the pennant in 2015 but that will be followed by a 15-year drought, ending with a pennant in 2031.

I'm so starved for anything, I'd almost sign up for that. Almost.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: We're already there. The Mets have already gone 14 years without appearing in a World Series. (2001 through 2014). The previous high was 13. (1987 through 1999) Before that it was 12 years. (1974 through 1985). If this pattern holds, the Mets will win the pennant in 2015 but that will be followed by a 15-year drought, ending with a pennant in 2031.

Right you are. Sloppy me. I simply counted the years, but not the months or weeks or days.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: We're already there. The Mets have already gone 14 years without appearing in a World Series. (2001 through 2014). The previous high was 13. (1987 through 1999) Before that it was 12 years. (1974 through 1985). If this pattern holds, the Mets will win the pennant in 2015 but that will be followed by a 15-year drought, ending with a pennant in 2031.

But the Mets win the World Series on alternate pennants, so this would be the year to win it all.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Mets 2.5 games up with deGrom pitching tonight!

Nats facing Kershaw tonight!

Also, the Blue Jays are only a half-game away from making the Mets the only 1st place team in New York!

Giddy!

[Centerfield]

Quadruple Happiness last night.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't think the exuberance is at all irrational. It's August 12, the Mets are 2.5 games in first place and have a soft schedule ahead. Baseball Prospectus, as of this morning, has the Mets at 69.5% to win the division, 73.2% to make the playoffs, and 6.9% to win the World Series.

Traditionally, this has been the time of year when I start paying less attention to the Mets, but instead, this year I'm spending more time watching. And while the 2.5 game lead is very nice, I won't feel completely comfortable until they have a 7-game lead with only 17 to play. (Ummm, never mind on that last thought.) It looks like we'll have meaningful games in September. And while that phrase was much derided (mainly, I think, because it came from a Wilpon) it's really what we want, isn't it?

[MFS62]

Yes, but I'd like some meaningful games in October, too.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

Of course. But first things first.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Mets are guaranteed to play at least 4 games in October!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Mets � Willets Point wrote: Mets are guaranteed to play at least 4 games in October!

Hopefully those four will be meaningless, followed by 15 to 20 meaningful games.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

They can mean something, like jockeying for best record in NL or testing out some bench players in starting roles so they won't be rusty.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Okay, I'll allow that!

[Guest d'Kong76]

Already 11 wins or so behind St. Lou, best record in NL would
be a phenomenal achievement.

[Lefty Specialist]

Just drive for the division. It's just one team to beat and they're already ahead of them. Mets would be 3 games out of the second WC currently, 4 in the loss column. And the team they'd be chasing has already gone 7-0 against them this year.

So the path is pretty clear. Plus, there's none of that 'one and done' crap to worry about, where anything can happen. The Mets pitching staff is a huge strength in a 7-game series.

Just keep swimming.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yes, I want that division title. (And I'd almost rather get the second wild card than the first, because the system, I think, is very unfair to the first wild card team. A team that gets the second slot is playing with house money.)

Anyway, the most likely scenario, it seems, has the Cardinals playing the wild card winner (Pirates or Cubs) and the Mets (or Nationals) playing the NL West winner. I can definitely see the Mets playing the Dodgers in the first round and then the Cardinals in the second round, which sounds ominously like 2006, but hopefully with a happier, or at least later, ending.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

d'Kong76 wrote: Already 11 wins or so behind St. Lou, best record in NL would be a phenomenal achievement.

Maybe second best. Maybe just making Washington miserable.

[dgwphotography]

At the conclusion of games on August 11: The 1969 Mets were 62-49, and 8 games back. The 2015 Mets are 61-52 and 2.5 games ahead.

Just sayin'

[Lefty Specialist]

Cubs, collapse notwithstanding, were a pretty good team in 1969. Nats, not so much.

[Centerfield]

Now 3.5 games up!

Second straight night of Quadruple Happiness!

1/2 a game away from Rational Exuberance!

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

And the Mets are the only New York City baseball team in first place today!

Not! Enough! Exclamation! Points!

!!!!!

[Edgy MD]

I feel like I had a wonderful date with Cleveland last night, and I should send them flowers to them and call them from work.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Mets are once again 10 games over .500, for the first time since April.

I hereby challenge them to push it to 20 games. That would require them going 29-19 the rest of the way, and they'd finish with 91 wins.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I declare, fuck it; my name is d'Kong and I AM EXUBERANT!