Cespedes

[Centerfield]

Cespedes is not going to be a Met after this year. I don't see any way this is possible.

Any player going into free agency at the age of 30 has to test the open market. This is his one chance to set himself up financially. He would be foolish not to take that opportunity.

Exceptions are made, usually in two scenarios.

(1) The player has a history with a club, and strongly prefers to stay, so he takes a reasonable contract offered by the team. I don't see this happening here.

(2) The Mets make a "blow him out of the water" type offer. I don't see this happening either. And though I hate the Wilpons, I'm not sure this type of offer should be made.

Cespedes, although he is one of the 2 best hitters in this lineup, is no sure thing, and is a step down from the first tier superstars. His career OPS is .789. His career high in HR is 26. He doesn't hit for a great average, and he doesn't walk a lot.

I am all for the Wilpons blowing. But if they have limited blows, I'm not sure Cespedes is blow-worthy.

[Edgy MD]

It would also lock them in — plan-wise, anyhow — with two more years of faking it in centerfield.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I like Cespedes, and he'll help a bit. But, all told, considering fit-to-need, overall onfield value, and controllability... cost inclusive... I would have preferred the Gomez trade.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, well, do you prefer Cessa and Fulmer to Flores and Wheeler?

Keep in mind, your answer may make me cry.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Heroics and humanity aside... I kinda don't love Flores as a player, and I've always thought Wheeler (for command reasons) to be the least steadfast/most limited, ceiling-wise of our "big" arms. I see middling-AJ Burnett as his upper limit, honestly, so if someone will buy high on him when he's recovering from surgery...

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: Any player going into free agency at the age of 30 has to test the open market. This is his one chance to set himself up financially. He would be foolish not to take that opportunity.

This part, coupled with that no signing until May rule, is what seals the deal in this case.
Cespedes has to either decide that he so loves the Mets (and vice-versa) that the two lovers throw caution to the wind and hit on a mutually agreed-upon lengthy deal prior to the end of the WS, or he has to blow off the first month of next season to re-sign here after a winter of spurring all other offers.
Neither scenario is logical.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I probably would have preferred keeping Fulmer to Wheeler were it possible but understand trading for a home run hitter on July 31 comes at a cost.

Corey Mazzoni by the way was up only for a cup of bitter joe with SD earlier this year (20.25 ERA!) but is having a good year as a PCL reliever. Alex Torres, not so much.

[Vic Sage]

This:

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I like Cespedes, and he'll help a bit. But, all told, considering fit-to-need, overall onfield value, and controllability... cost inclusive... I would have preferred the Gomez trade.

And this:

Heroics and humanity aside... I kinda don't love Flores as a player, and I've always thought Wheeler (for command reasons) to be the least steadfast/most limited, ceiling-wise of our "big" arms. I see middling-AJ Burnett as his upper limit, honestly, so if someone will buy high on him when he's recovering from surgery...

That being said, this is about Cespedes. No, he won't sign here. He has to test the market and, once he does, we can't re-sign him until May or something, and by then he'll already be signed somewhere.

In the meantime, the move has changed the spirit of the team and the mood of the fans, not to mention our offensive production. He's also a better base runner and fielder than i thought. he does, however, suffer from Gandalf Syndrome ("thou shalt not pass!"), and swings at a lot of bad balls. But unlike Vlad Guerrero, he can't hit them very well.

[Edgy MD]

It's kind of silly that this pat story ("Happy to be here; like what I see!") even generating so much internetage. What do you expect him to say?

"I'm enjoying dating your daughter for now, Sir. She's all well and good and we're having a good time. But when I get to college, opportunities are gonna totally open up for me, and I'd be a fool not to check out what those options are. Oh, you're daughter wouldn't be totally out of the picture, but she'd have to show me what she's offering before I leave, and frankly, she'd have to blow me away. OW! OW-OW-OW! What did I say?!!"

[Edgy MD]

"Did Your Team Blow It at the Trade Deadline?"

Neil Paine and Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com look closely at the math behind when a team should muscle up at the deadline, when they should sell, ultimately concluding.

1. A team should virtually never stand pat.
   
2. The Mets were a borderline better-to-sell-than-buy team.
   
3. The Mets were dithery.
   
4. The Mets, once deciding to buy, should have gone further, maybe buying a star second baseman as well.

Now in fairness, the authors were looking at the math, more than the particulars of any team, but they are alleged baseball fans, so they shouldn't fear calculating in situational nuances, either by working them into the math, or arbitrarily noting exceptional situations. Because I kind of disagree on all parts.

With regard to standing pat, what if what you have a mediocre team is primarily (or entirely!) populated by talented pre-free agency or pre-arbitration players? You may not think it's your year, and you may not want to flip some of your talent on the small chance that it can make it your year, but you may still want to keep that unit together for future seasons. Think of the 1983 Mets. And even then, you may see the Rusty Staubs that you may be able to sell of as guys you want to keep around to help shepherd your future juggernaut into maturity.

With regard to borderline teams, consideration has to be given to whether a team can reasonably expect to get better. Younger teams might be expected to get better in the second half compared to older teams. Teams with high-profile players returning from injury might be expected to get better as compared to teams that have been relatively healthy.

The Mets were not dithery. By all reports, even as they walked away from the Brewers, they were aggressively pursuing other deals. They walked away from Milwaukee not because their faith flagged with regard to buying, but because it flagged with regard to buying Carlos Gomez.

With regard to the Mets buying a star second baseman, didn't they kind of do that by buying two halves of one in Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe?

Anyhow, I think the math is an important measure, though I'm sure many teams use a similar formula and likely re-calculate from day to day throughout July. And then make a gut call anyway.

[metirish]

“Doyle Number.”


Very interesting article tho

[Benjamin Grimm]

John Cougar Lunchbucket (on July 23) wrote: I'm not a Cespedes fan, although I could see him being the kind of guy who'd get traded and subsequently get insanely hot. But I'm with nymr, not sure he's what we really want.

I was out of the country for most of this thread and was curious to see what the initial reaction to the Cespedes deal was. It's funny now, with hindsight, to read the first page of this thread.

I just had to quote John Cougar Lunchbucket's post. That first sentence is especially prescient, but I think Cespedes has surpassed anyone's expectation of how insane "insanely hot" could be.

[Edgy MD]

The other amazing thing to read back there is that Fulmer was picked with the bonus pick the Mets got for the Yanks signing Pedro Feliciano. Perpetual P just keeps giving.

[Farmer Ted]

I think the Mets make a big play to sign the guy. Captain America restructures his deal and opens the way for a cool $20 million to be spent on Cuban cigars.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket (on July 23) wrote: I'm not a Cespedes fan, although I could see him being the kind of guy who'd get traded and subsequently get insanely hot. But I'm with nymr, not sure he's what we really want. I was out of the country for most of this thread and was curious to see what the initial reaction to the Cespedes deal was. It's funny now, with hindsight, to read the first page of this thread. I just had to quote John Cougar Lunchbucket's post. That first sentence is especially prescient, but I think Cespedes has surpassed anyone's expectation of how insane "insanely hot" could be.

Presience is my other middle name. And Cespedes abilities in CF have largely erased my initial reticence. Reticence is my other other middle name.

[Vic Sage]

Now that Cespedes has waived his "5-day negotiating window" contract clause, the Mets are on equal footing to compete with other bidders for Yo-Anus's services. All they'll have to do is grossly overpay a 30-year old (?) free swinging OFer based on his 2 months of insane production in NY (projecting it over a full season, he's hitting at a1.000+OPS/.300/50hr/120rbi pace), rather than based on the 2200 very-good-but-not-quite-great major league plate appearances he produced over the 4 years prior to the trade (ages 26-29). So i'm sort of on the fence about that.

But as for now... Go, Yo-Anus, Go!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yeah, I'm not sure what to think either. It all depends on the state of the Mets finances. How much can they afford to gamble? I have no idea. I'd like to think that they've reached a point where they can take on more risk than they have in previous years, but only Howard Megdal knows for sure.

[Edgy MD]

Well, wherever they are now, they will have reached a further point by the end of the playoffs. How much further, again, only Megdal knows right now.

The advantage of Cespedes is that he doesn't have to live at this rate. (Indeed, it seems impossible that he could). If he just plays at his prior career norms, it'll go a long way toward taking the heat off of the coming generation of contributors: d'Arnaud/Flores/Lagares/Herrera/Conforto/Nimmo/Cecchini, etc. If he joins Wright and Granderson (and maybe Duda and Cuddy) in doing some of that during the first half his contract, they'll be taking the heat off of him by the second half.

Anyhow, that's a possible argument for being a little bolder.

[TransMonk]

There is a major chance that Cespedes gets overpaid based on his Aug/Sep/Oct of '15. If that's the case, I don't want the Mets to be the ones overpaying. Any offer the Mets make should be based on the whole of his career and not just his time in New York (obviously).

I think the Mets are five times more likely to sign Cespedes long term now that he has dropped his small window negotiation clause, but that's only because I thought there would be a less than 1% chance of them re-signing them before and only about a 5% chance now.

[seawolf17]

TransMonk wrote: There is a major chance that Cespedes gets overpaid based on his Aug/Sep/Oct of '15. If that's the case, I don't want the Mets to be the ones overpaying. Any offer the Mets make should be based on the whole of his career and not just his time in New York (obviously). I think the Mets are five times more likely to sign Cespedes long term now that he has dropped his small window negotiation clause, but that's only because I thought there would be a less than 1% chance of them re-signing them before and only about a 5% chance now.

I agree. I think there are too many other options that may not be as sexy on September 16 (Heyward, Upton) that may wind up being better fits in the long run.

[Farmer Ted]

Did the Mets have to pay to open that 5-day window. That kinda shit ain't free.

[Ceetar]

Farmer Ted wrote: Did the Mets have to pay to open that 5-day window. That kinda shit ain't free.

Nah, it was more a mutually agreed upon thing, and was mostly a MLB rule exemption. Probably helped knowing someone on the rules committee.

OFFICIAL PLAYING RULES COMMITTEE Sandy Alderson, Chair Jerry Dipoto Terry Ryan Chris Antonetti Brian Gorman John Schuerholz Sam Bernabe John Mozeliak Joe Torre

and as long as we're not relying on small sample size recency results, let's not forget we don't have a solid answer for 2B or SS but three+ outfielders under contract. (Although a variety of different reasonable gambles for 2B at least. Dilson, etc)

[Benjamin Grimm]

If he's going to be in the $30 million per year range, then the Mets should back off. But if he's going to be closer to the $20 million range, then I'd hope they roll the dice. Six years, $120 million is risky, but not crazy risky. If they can get him for that, and Howard Megdal approves, I'd like to see them do it.

[Lefty Specialist]

Someone's going to be dumb enough to give him an 8-year/$240 million contract. I'm comfortable knowing that team won't be the Mets.

Power is down in the majors and Cespedes is hitting like McGwire and Sosa in their chemical prime. The man's going to get paid, and handsomely. 6/$120 is a pipe dream.

[RealityChuck]

Ceetar wrote: Farmer Ted wrote: Did the Mets have to pay to open that 5-day window. That kinda shit ain't free. Nah, it was more a mutually agreed upon thing, and was mostly a MLB rule exemption. Probably helped knowing someone on the rules committee.

It's no-brainer. Cespedes gives up nothing tangible and gets another team bidding. Win for him.

The interesting point is that he was willing to do it. It means that he is not unhappy playing with the Mets. If he disliked the situation, he wouldn't have waived the clause.

[Ceetar]

Cespedes gives up the possibility of the Mets (though it was intended to be the As) giving him a bigger contract than he'd get given the fullness of time. The Mets wouldn't have had time to wait him out, or sign other guys to fill his role, or price those other guys. They'd be bidding against his theoretical value and wouldn't be able to say "fine, find something comparable and we'll match it"

[Farmer Ted]

I think Boswell is on the Boras payroll. Oh, the timing. $500 fucking million.

By Thomas Boswell Columnist September 17 at 8:39 PM 

What does Bryce Harper’s amazing season, in which he has duplicated the production of Mickey Mantle in his prime, mean when we step back and look at this gorgeous wave, with the Washington Nationals slugger locked in its curl for months, as it finally comes roaring toward shore?

His 2015 explosion has at least three major implications. First, he has, for at least one season, topped Mike Trout as the best player in the majors. Harper’s blown the ceiling off his ceiling. “ ‘The sky’s the limit’ is an understatement,” Gio Gonzalez said after Harper’s 40th homer Wednesday. “I think it’s more than that.”

Second, with an adamant endorsement this week of Matt Williams, his embattled manager, Harper may well have made it difficult, if not impossible for the Nats to make any decision except to retain Williams. Harper has linked his breakout season directly to Wiliams’s theories and his in-game at-bat-to-at-bat coaching.

Third, Harper has rocketed so high that, before he can duplicate his 2015 show in 2016 and certify a market value of, perhaps, $500 million, the Lerners need to decide whether they should approach him about a lifetime contract, like Miami did when it signed Giancarlo Stanton for $325 million over 13 years. Think $400 million — or 49 percent of Tysons Corner.

Let’s take them in order. Most immediate, we have only 16 more games to watch a player performing at a level that has rarely been surpassed by an honest player except Babe Ruth and Ted Williams.

We’re all told that the future is not given. So we can’t know whether Harper will ever again be MLB’s best player. But he is this season. Will he win the NL’s MVP award? That is mere voting, with agendas, biases and definitions of “value.” His season is raw, blunt fact. Maybe he tapers off. But in other Septembers, he has sprinted to the wire.

Harper has had seven games when he has drawn either three or four walks. Boring? Only if you aren’t watching his face. He seems like a human rifle, sighting itself in, honing on the target, narrowing the range of vision and becoming a better weapon. After his walkathons, he’s gone crazy the next day — all seven times — hitting .560 and slugging 1.160.

Everything about Harper this season is different, better, more mature and controlled, sometimes so excellent that it seems nearly impossible to maintain.

Since his “0-4-0-1” line of Sept. 3, Harper has hit nine homers in 13 games and leads the NL in homers (40) and batting average (.340). No one has led the league in those two categories since 1939.

“Bryce is the best player in the NL for sure,” Max Scherzer said. “He keeps rising to the challenge of getting even better than he is now.”

To compare players between eras and adjust for how much they dominated their peers, you can use “OPS+” — on-base-plus-slugging percentage, adjusted for era and home park. League norm is set at 100 for each year. A 120 OPS+ means you’re 20 percent above the league norm. A career mark over 145 probably books you in Cooperstown. The best career mark is Babe Ruth’s 206.

Here are some players who never reached that “200” level in any season: Willie Mays, Trout, Hank Aaron, Miguel Cabrera, Joe DiMaggio, Ken Griffey Jr., Albert Pujols, Frank Robinson and every active player in MLB — except Harper, who is sitting at 204 for this season.

His past two years combined is 167, which would be top 10 in history, and he’s at 144 for his four years in the majors.

Second point, this week Harper gave Williams an endorsement that was at least an “11” on a scale of 10. Harper “loves” him. Matt reminds Bryce of his favorite high school coach and of his own dad, too.

More important, Williams has been his “head” coach all season in how Harper approaches hitting, from the big picture to individual at-bats, down to anticipating pitch sequences. Mechanics, no. Everything else, yes.

A general manager and owner ultimately decide a manager’s fate, not a 22-year-old. But if the Nats fire Williams and Harper’s future performance does not approach this season, then the guy that did the dump will look like a dunce. The gap between the 10.8 WAR pace that Harper is on this season and even a very good mark of 5.0 is probably far more than any new manager could provide.

Do you think the Angels, Pirates or Giants would have fired a manager that Trout, Andrew McCutchen or Buster Posey loved, backed publicly and credited as central to their breakout MVP seasons? Maybe, but I bet not.

Third, it’s time for the Lerner family to decide whether they believe in lifetime contracts for any 22-year-old. If that’s a “yes,” then what’s their top deal to lock up Harper to age 35?

Then make the offer, probably before next season, and cross your fingers.

Harper can’t leave D.C. until after 2018. But the earlier you make your big play, the greater the team’s leverage because they assume the risk while also showing enormous confidence and affection bordering on “join our family as a partner.”

“It’s really rare to see a player reach his level so young. I was always told your prime was 28-33. That’s eight prime years after 25,” Scherzer said, perfectly hitting the age (25) when the Nats’ control of Harper would end. Of course, Scherzer already has a $210 million deal, shares the same agent with Harper and would love Bryce’s bat to provide runs far into his pitching future.

To help the Lerners, let’s give a case study. Harper’s dad worshiped Mantle. Harper wears No. 34 because 3+4 = 7 and the Mick wore No. 7. In Mantle’s 10 best years (1955-64), he averaged 137 games, 37 HRs, 95 RBI, a .314 average and .614 slugging percentage.

Entering Thursday, Harper had played 138 games. How convenient. His line: 40 HRs, 92 RBI, .338 and .670.

Can Harper be consistent? Can he stay healthy?

I’ve tried to study every player whose career before age 25 resembled Harper’s. How many got hurt? How many with hindsight were worth a megadeal of 12-plus years? My guesstimate: 75 percent. But it sure isn’t 100 percent.

Whatever you think of Harper’s outspoken, brash personality, the Lerners, including owner Ted and his influential wife, Annette, just about dote on him. On a coast-to-coast flight last month, Harper sat and talked with the family for an hour.

“You have to realize that he really is only 22,” one Lerner who felt that the family had a bit of in-loco-parentis responsibility. “He’d never been to Europe. He asked. ‘Where should I go?’ ”

Whenever Harper asks a Lerner where he should go, they should seriously consider saying, “Oh, just stay in Washington.” Then back it up.

[Edgy MD]

It's strange to find myself rooting for a superstar to land with the Yankees, but that's kind of where I'm at.

I'm fine with him staying in Washington, certainly.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: It's strange to find myself rooting for a superstar to land with the Yankees, but that's kind of where I'm at. I'm fine with him staying in Washington, certainly.

My preferences for Harper

Mets
Any non Yankees AL East team.
Any AL West team.
Any AL Central team.
Any NL West team
Any NL Central team.
Yankees
Marlins
Phillies/Braves/Nationals

[seawolf17]

Ceetar wrote: Edgy MD wrote: It's strange to find myself rooting for a superstar to land with the Yankees, but that's kind of where I'm at. I'm fine with him staying in Washington, certainly. My preferences for Harper Mets Any non Yankees AL East team. Any AL West team. Any AL Central team. Any NL West team Any NL Central team. Yankees Marlins Phillies/Braves/Nationals

I would so very much hate to root for Bryce Harper. But I would do it if necessary.