Spinal Stenosis

[Edgy MD]

Life is a gamble.

There's no need to quote "work." It's an established term and the activities I'm describing meet the criteria.

I disagree that less major league experience necessarily means a bigger risk.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Life is a gamble. There's no need to quote "work." It's an established term and the activities I'm describing meet the criteria. I disagree that less major league experience necessarily means a bigger risk.

well, you can disagree all you want, the statistics bare out the truth. The best way to know how a guy will hit in the majors is to see him hit in the majors.

I'm quoting 'work' because A. I doubt guys aren't doing what they need to do, and B. no amount of work can replace a guy's talent ceiling. This is like Terry Collins saying "uh guys, maybe don't strike out so much?" like they're not trying to hit the damn baseball.

[Guest d'Kong76]

The repetitive stress of checking to see if there's a new IGT
every half hour is aggravating my spinal stenosis!

[Edgy MD]

well, you can disagree all you want, the statistics bare out the truth. The best way to know how a guy will hit in the majors is to see him hit in the majors.

What statistics would those be? Do they account for the cost in terms of money and talent of bringing in veteran players? Do they account for the fungibility of younger players being easier to move in and out of the lineup? Or the presence of secondary skills in younger players that have often faded in veteran talent? Do they account for the long term benefits beyond this year of developing younger players.

Do they account for paying Bobby Bonilla beyond the expected lifetime of Fred and possibly Jeff Wilpon?

Please, show me the statistics.

I'm quoting 'work' because A. I doubt guys aren't doing what they need to do, and B. no amount of work can replace a guy's talent ceiling. This is like Terry Collins saying "uh guys, maybe don't strike out so much?" like they're not trying to hit the damn baseball.

(A) Neither do I, but success comes when it comes, in fits and starts.

( No, it's not like that all. Players improve all the time. Last year, it was: Hey, we pretty much know what Lucas Duda is. It's been over three years now. He worked hard, and well, he had a breakthrough. He seems to be having another one this year. If you are mystically privy to Dilson Herrera's talent ceiling � or Muno's, or d'Arnaud's, or Flores', or Lagares' � please tell me now.

#BrilliantManagement
#YaGottaBelieve
#YaGottaHaveFaithUhFaithUhFaithUHHH

[Ceetar]

I don't know about you but I've known Lucas Duda has been good for years and am not surprised. Maybe a little surprised by the actually lefty success (as opposed to just not sucking against them) this year, but that's about it.

Duda's actually a good example. I said to someone near the end of 2011 that I'd rather gamble on Lucas Duda hitting than Domonic Brown. Brown was Baseball America's #4 prospect coming into that season. He destroyed the minors. Lucas Duda is, and was, better than him.

The majors are tough. I'm not pissing away a playoff shot by giving Matt Reynolds or Herrera 200 AB to hang themselves or find themselves. And certainly not both at the same time combined with playing Flores and Plawecki.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: I don't know about you but I've known Lucas Duda has been good for years and am not surprised.

I'm not surprised. That's more or less a big part of my point.

Will these conclusive statistics be forthcoming?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, play the younguns. We're looking for an offensively-minded plug-in, though, right? Just sayin':

Reynolds: .286/.350/.423, 19 XBH (16 2B) in 197 PAs; 7 SB/3 CS (.283/.351/.397 over his minors career).
OF/3B Alex Castellanos: .285/.373/.634, 24 XBH (9 HR!) in 142 PAs; 3 SB/0 CS (.286/.361/.499, minors).

OE: Hey, great minds!

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Ceetar wrote: I don't know about you but I've known Lucas Duda has been good for years and am not surprised. I'm not surprised. That's more or less a big part of my point. Will these conclusive statistics be forthcoming?

no, you know where the stats pages are. Go look up 10 prospects last full season in the minors and see how the first full majors season compares, then look up 10 established players one year versus the next and see which correlates more.

[Edgy MD]

I see. It's my job to research your claim. Got it.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: I see. It's my job to research your claim. Got it.

it's certainly not my job to educate you. if you're going to call my point false, one that seems pretty well established to me, then give me some facts. truthfully 10 anecdotal examples won't quite do it anyway.

I mean, here's a quick and dirty query. last year Rookies hit for a wRC+ of 80 compared to the league average 96. Hell, league SS had an 87 wRC+. Chances are a callup isn't even going to hit as well as your average major league SS.

[ashie62]

Can we wait to see if David is finished. He deserves that much.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: it's certainly not my job to educate you.

Sheesh, you can be a real snotty guy, you know that?

I'll put my education up against anybody's. You made a claim. I respectfully disagreed, and then you got all opinion-stated-as-fact with "well, you can disagree all you want, the statistics bare out the truth." If you don't understand that puts the burden of proof on you, I don't know what to tell you. I often don't know what to tell you. Either you can back up this contemptuous claim or you can't.

[Centerfield]

He cannot. I stopped arguing with him last winter when he refused to acknowledge that having the ability to spend more on payroll is an advantage for a team.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: He cannot. I stopped arguing with him last winter when he refused to acknowledge that having the ability to spend more on payroll is an advantage for a team.

I only argue to pass the time.

I used to debate but you guys rarely respond with facts or logic so it never works.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Ceetar wrote: Centerfield wrote: He cannot. I stopped arguing with him last winter when he refused to acknowledge that having the ability to spend more on payroll is an advantage for a team. I only argue to pass the time. I used to debate but you guys rarely respond with facts or logic so it never works.

[Vic Sage]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Ceetar wrote: Centerfield wrote: He cannot. I stopped arguing with him last winter when he refused to acknowledge that having the ability to spend more on payroll is an advantage for a team. I only argue to pass the time. I used to debate but you guys rarely respond with facts or logic so it never works.

THIS!!

[metsmarathon]

baseball is a race to see how soon a player begins to get worse at baseball. young players sometimes get worse as soon as they make the jump to the majors, other times they get better first. old players are almost always already getting worse.

young players get better all the time, and on average, continue getting better until their late 20s, at which point they typically plateau, and then decline.

old players just keep on getting worse.

the best way to guarantee that a player will perform better than the year before is to get one in the midst of his 20s.
the best way to guarantee that a player will perform worse than the year before is to get one in the midst of his 30s.

Do you think another team would trade us the equivalent of a matz for cuddyer, or murphy? because that's about the offensive level of production you'd get with zobrist. (and if so, lets make THAT fucking move instead!)

i get that you want to go all-in on the season. and that's great. let's go all in. what you're proposing is, at best, a kazmir for zambrano trade, only if zambrano was 4 years older.

[Ceetar]

I'm still not sure who's proposing this.

[Benjamin Grimm]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Josh was talking about the possibility of trading for a guy like Ben Zobrist. He's rehabbing a knee now but might come at the right price.

Ceetar wrote: intrigued by the Zobrist bit though, since you could always move him to SS, or elsewhere, as guys get healthy. What would it take? might be Matz right?

[Guest d'Kong76]

Frayed Knot wrote: Anyone who trades Matz for Ben Zobrist should be horsewhipped on the spot.

[Guest d'Kong76]

d'Kong76 wrote: This is fun!

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Josh was talking about the possibility of trading for a guy like Ben Zobrist. He's rehabbing a knee now but might come at the right price. Ceetar wrote: intrigued by the Zobrist bit though, since you could always move him to SS, or elsewhere, as guys get healthy. What would it take? might be Matz right?

Yes, so I proposed that Billy Beane might want to trade Zobrist for Matz.

But it's only partly up to him.

[seawolf17]

Okay. So we're all in agreement that the combination of "Ben Zobrist, Met" and "Steve Matz, A" sucks.

Can we get back to panicking about our franchise third baseman please?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

That's what sorta sparked the whole thing. I think the fact that
a) Wright's return date more unpredictable than ever
Hererra's injury and slow start indicates rehab + minors assignment likely
c) Campbell has been terrible up here
d) Reynolds has been only okay in AAA where several better-hitting teammates have made the jump and struggled.

Would suggest the time has come to look for a stopgap that might be something of a known quantity, vs. just getting by for a few weeks with a Campbellish player one the one hand or making a costly blockbuster for Tulowitzski trade on the other which is why the Zobrist, Callaspo, types could get an eyeball now. You get these guys because they won't cost you Steve Matz.

[Centerfield]

Well did he see him? What did Dr. Watkins say? Are the exercises working? Come on beat reporters!!