Is this Piazza's year?

[Edgy MD]

I imagine Johnson didn't betray a steroid look to him like Piazza and Bagwell did.

[Frayed Knot]

Except for the acne.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy MD wrote: I imagine Johnson didn't betray a steroid look to him like Piazza and Bagwell did.

Or Biggio? (Also omitted on CHB's ballot.)

[Edgy MD]

Frayed Knot wrote: Except for the acne.

Well, I'm making assumptions about his mindset here, but it's not like Johnson didn't come into the league with some facial anomalies.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I imagine Johnson didn't betray a steroid look to him like Piazza and Bagwell did. Or Biggio? (Also omitted on CHB's ballot.)

Still assuming, but I'm guessing his case against Biggio isn't a broadside against the "PED Hall Pass," but rather an atomic wedgie opposing "analytic arrogance."

The analytic arrogance that has given his city's team --- disappointed for 86 years --- three world championships in a decade.

[seawolf17]

I love that; thanks for the link.

By the way, this is finally the year that Mattingly falls off the ballot. Yay!

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Boooooo. Marty Noble's not a Piazza voter!

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/103924406/marty-noble-thoughts-on-the-hall-of-fame-ballot

This is the kind of stuff that drives me crazy:

So what else is there, now that the envelope has been sealed and mailed, though not yet counted? Another year will pass before I need to study Kent, who I sense is HOF-worthy, and Mike Mussina, who is ... well, I'm not sure. I withheld my vote from Kent this year only because I don't care to see the Cooperstown stage sag under too much weight come July 26. Three's company, four's a crowd.

Behold, your veteran baseball writer, who is too busy to "study" Jeff Kent and limits his ballot to three candidates, not because there aren't more deserving players, but because "four's a crowd."

Incredible.

[Gwreck]

If considering candidates is too hard work for Marty, maybe he should resign his vote. Embracing laziness is awful. He should be ashamed to have written that.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

The weight of the stage woudln't be an issue if Marty and his colleagues had done their job and not created such a backlog. This is where the years of inducting one player -- or not a single player -- become problematic.

And how is he even considering voting for Kent, but not Piazza?

[Edgy MD]

The notion that "I see 10 worthwhile players, but I will withhold voting for 10, because I only want to see three get in at a time," doesn't hold up logically. If everyone voted that way, there'd be one or zero inducted. Trust the process or agitate to change the process. Don't war with yourself and vote against your own perspective and better judgment. That p&bj is exactly what's being polled and what the writers allegedly bring to the process.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Shit ballot for Marty, and the column accompanying it is pretty fuddy-duddy itself.

He's one of those guys who feels strongly about those convictions he has and he's set in his ways. So he not only misses the big picture, but he doesn't care.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Apparently Marty hasn't thought about Craig Biggio yet, either.

[metsmarathon]

jibbers! the very reason there's such a backlog, such a call for hte ballot to be expanded beyond 10 players, indeed a need to fill up all 10 spots on hte ballot, is because of foolish voting practices like this, and the silly, assinine notion of the first-ballot hall of famer.

and for the love of chistmas, if ralph kiner (15th ballot) is the same amount of a hall of famer as lou gehrig (1st ballot), then by the same measure, would not there also be no differnce between barry larkin (lone BBWAA enshrinee in '12) and babe ruth, honus wagner, ty cobb, christy matthewson, and walter johnson (five fuckin' guys inducted at the same time!).

if babe ruth is the same amount of hall of famer as barry larkin, then it doesn't matter if there's one guy or thirty guys inducted this year, if they all have merit. they're all the same damned amount of hall of famer.

if alan trammel should be a hall of famer, but risks falling off due to time and rules, vote him the fuck in instead of pretending to wring your hands while patting yourself on the back for doing your job in the worst way possible.

10 players were inducted in 1945, 11 players in 1946 ("old timers" all). the podium held up just fine.

[stevejrogers]

Baseball Think Factory's ballot collecting gizmo.

[Edgy MD]

Nothing against John Shmutz, but... there's about eight guys outside looking in that shine brighter to me.

[list:1xqajnfn]98.0 - P. Martinez
98.0 - R. Johnson
88.2 - Smoltz
84.3 - Biggio
78.4 - Piazza
������������
70.6 - Bagwell
68.6 - Raines
56.9 - Schilling
43.1 - Mussina
39.2 - Bonds
37.3 - Clemens
25.5 - E. Martinez
25.5 - Trammell
17.6 - McGriff
15.7 - Lee Smith
13.7 - Kent
9.8 - McGwire
9.8 - Sheffield
7.8 - L. Walker
������������-
3.9 - Sosa
2.0 - Garciaparra
2.0 - Pete Rose (Write-In)[/list:u:1xqajnfn]

And how about Sosa? Six hunnert homers sure doesn't buy what it used to.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Agree about Smoltz. I wish Piazza's percentage was in the 80s to feel a little more confident. I'm fearing he'll fall just short again.

[Edgy MD]

Folks out there with mixed feelings. If Piazza gets in this year, induction weekend will conflict with the Heart concert.

[G-Fafif]

Mets Guy in Michigan wrote: Agree about Smoltz. I wish Piazza's percentage was in the 80s to feel a little more confident. I'm fearing he'll fall just short again.

Might be wise to subtract 'X'% from any given "votes already in" percentage in deference to the voters who no longer publish anywhere and probably aren't interested in giving the baseball public a heads up (and are probably more likely to be flinty with their choices). Last year it was "who wouldn't vote for Greg Maddux?" Several voters didn't. Enough to preserve the magic 98.84% of Tom's, which was fine by me, but indicative that a few more "you've got to be kidding" nays lay in the woods, thus nullifying what appear to be overwhelming and/or adequate levels of support.

So if Pedro seems on track by these estimates for, say, 97%, I'd guess it will be more like 91%, which of course won't matter for induction. But I have a hunch that if these trackers have Piazza's exit poll numbers between 75 and 80%, he'll fall close to Biggio-short in real life (and that he's going in with Junior next year).

[Edgy MD]

Be interesting to see what X looks like.

Right now, Mike Piazza is ahead of Biggio. Sheffield candidacy looks to be the most notable casualty, but Larry Walker and Sammy Sosa are teetering on the edge of oblivion, too.

Guy	PCT
Pedro Martinez	100.00%
Randy Johnson	98.72%
John Smoltz	88.46%
Mike Piazza	84.62%
Craig Biggio	79.49%
Jeff Bagwell	74.36%
Tim Raines	66.67%
Curt Schilling	58.97%
Barry Bonds	50.00%
Roger Clemens	48.72%
Mike Mussina	42.31%
Edgar Martinez	28.21%
Alan Trammell	23.08%
Lee Smith	15.38%
Fred McGriff	12.82%
Jeff Kent	8.97%
Mark McGwire	8.97%
Sammy Sosa	6.41%
Larry Walker	6.41%
Gary Sheffield	3.85%
Carlos Delgado	1.28%
Nomar Garciaparra	1.28%
Don Mattingly	1.28%
Aaron Boone	0.00%
Tony Clark	0.00%
Jermaine Dye	0.00%
Darin Erstad	0.00%
Cliff Floyd	0.00%
Brian Giles	0.00%
Tom Gordon	0.00%
Eddie Guardado	0.00%
Jack Morris	0.00%
Troy Percival	0.00%
Jason Schmidt	0.00%

[Vic Sage]

i can understand Sheffield not getting in because of his name in the Mitchell Report (and his statements about race, as well as the commonly held view that he didn't have much heart and integrity, and was just an asshole generally), but to fall off the ballot after 1 year?

A guy with 500+ career HRs, whose average line over a 20+ year career was .290ba/100r/100rbi/30hr/20sb with a .900 OPS/140 OPS+, a guy who had 9 AS appearances, 5 SS awards (at 2 different positions), 6 times in the top 10 in MVP voting, and a WS championship, should not just fall off the ballot after 1 year unless he actually killed somebody. Or at least got convicted of a felony. The other steroids guys are still on the ballot, and being an asshole shouldn't be a good enough distinction from the rest to bump him so unceremoniously (particularly when the rest include such spectacularly assholish types as Bonds and Clemens.)

[batmagadanleadoff]

Sheffield just might be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Look at that ballot. I bet you could make the case for there being 10 more deserving candidates than Sheffield.


Here's a hypothetical: what if 11 deserving Hall of Fame inductees are on the same ballot, and one of those deserving candidates is clearly the 11th best of the bunch. If every writer voted correctly and efficiently, that 11th best HOF candidate wouldn't receive a single vote and his candidacy would be terminated.

[Vic Sage]

the reason that remains a hypothetical is that there is nobody who is clearly "11th best". Its a subjective analysis, at least in part, and a reasoned and reasonable argument could be made for Sheffield in the top 10. He's got at least as good a case as Schilling, Mussina, EMart, Trammell, F.McGriff and Lee Smith, none of whom is in danger of falling off the ballot, and any of whom might one day be elected. Even roiders like McGwire and Sosa have stayed on the ballot for a number of years (not to mention obvious 1st ballot guys like Bonds and Clemens). If these percentages continue, Sheff would be the first 500hr guy to fall off the ballot after 1 election (i'm guessing, but it seems likely to be true... maybe Palmiero, too?).

Why is Sheff a special case? I guess he's a victim of a toxic blend of roids, assholeness and borderline stats, as well as a ballot stacked up because of past writer bans on roiders (both real and imagined).

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

If my eyes aren't deceiving me, there's at least a couple of McGwire-not-Piazza votes. I mean, granted, Summer-of-'98, and that's a lot of home runs, but if you're NOT eschewing a vote for Mike because of defense and perceived-roidiness, then... ?

[Edgy MD]

I can live with the McGwire-not-Piazza minority.

It's more the Smoltz-not-Mussina majority that concerns me (and I don't think I voted for either).

[Edgy MD]

I just went back and checked. I myself voted for Smoltz over Mussina. I am my own enemy!

I suspect NL bias and anti-Yankee bias colored my voting. I revoted, tossing Smoltz out and adding Moose, and I would beg you other Smoltz voters to consider these cases closely and perhaps join me in jumping.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

eff Mussina.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, well, you left your undies behind the last time you used my washing machine.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy MD wrote: I just went back and checked. I myself voted for Smoltz over Mussina. I am my own enemy!

Holy heck! You're absolutely Wright. I just Marty McFlyed my Smoltzvote, too... only to Schilling, not Moose (tie goes to the longer, better absolute peak-- three 8-WAR, Cyworthy years in four).

[Edgy MD]

I already had Schilling in there. A touch less WAR than Moo-See-Nah, but the post-season certainly carries the day for him in that matchup.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Edgy MD wrote: Yeah, well, you left your undies behind the last time you used my washing machine.

Oh I am so burnt.

[Ceetar]

I had Smoltz and not Mussina as well, but mainly because I'd already decided Smoltz was one, because I wanted to slight Clemens (you bum), and there is a stupid 10 person limit that basically lets you slight people. I haven't looked closely at Mussina to decide, and didn't have to yet.