Shortstop 2015

[Edgy MD]

Fox Sports reporting that J.J. Hardy is close to signing a highly unusual (unprecedented?) mid-post-season contract extension with the Orioles.

Good news is that Kaz Matsui is still available.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

To the extent it takes an option off the market, bad. But I'm not a big Hardy advocate.

He's apparently had some bouts of back trouble which I don't want our SS to have.

[Guest d'Kong76]

[u:27tft9hl]Shortstops[/u:27tft9hl]
Mike Aviles *
Asdrubal Cabrera
Stephen Drew
Alex Gonzalez
J.J. Hardy
Jed Lowrie
John McDonald
Hiroyuki Nakajima *
Hanley Ramirez
Jimmy Rollins *

(* � player whose current contract includes 2015 option.)

Source: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-free-agents-for-2015/

[Edgy MD]

The FA Marketplace, According to Cots' Baseball Contracts

Mike Aviles *
Asdrubal Cabrera
Stephen Drew
Alex Gonzalez
J.J. Hardy (?)
Jed Lowrie
John McDonald
Hiroyuki Nakajima *
Hanley Ramirez
Jimmy Rollins *

* � player whose current contract includes 2015 option.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Rmpl hee hee!

[Ceetar]

Hanley.

[Edgy MD]

d'Kong76 wrote: Rmpl hee hee!

I lost time formatting!

[metsmarathon]

projected 2015 WAR for available shortstops, per steamer, as shown by fangraphs... fwiw...

hanley ramirez 2.9 WAR in 532 PA
asdrubal cabrera 1.9 WAR in 639 PA
steven drew 1.3 WAR in 558 PA
jj hardy 2.7 WAR in 620 PA
jimmy rollins 2.2 WAR in 629 PA

predicted to not really play shortstop anymore in 2015
mike aviles 0 WAR in 1 PA
alex gonzalez 0 WAR in 1 PA
jed lowrie 0 WAR in 1 PA <---- regardless, he might be a decent buy low pick...?
hiroyuki nakajima 0 WAR in 1 PA

for comparison, wilmer flores 2.1 WAR in 551 PA

[Edgy MD]

Steamer predicts Tejada to put up 0.9, which isn't so bad when you consider that he only projects 65 games from the Rube.

Which would suggest that Flores-backed-up-by-Ruben would (maybe) be a more sensible move than bringing in one of those alternatives.

[Frayed Knot]

A recently written scouting report from the 'Minor League Ball' site (also linked in the AFL thread)

Matt Reynolds is a 2nd round pick from the 2012 draft, signing for $525,000 out of the University of Arkansas.
He kicked the year off in AA Binghamton where he hit a stout 355/430/422 with an astronomical .433 BABIP. Bumped up to AAA Las Vegas, he continued to rake where he remarkably sustained a BABIP over .400 (.404 to be exact). No doubt part of that was due to the friendly offensive environs of the Pacific Coast League, notching 25 extra base hits there while only hitting nine in AA in roughly the same amount of at bats. Combined between the two upper levels of the minor leagues, Reynolds hit 343/405/454 with a 9.2% walk rate and 18.6% strike out rate, 34 extra base hits, and 20 stolen bases. Digging into his splits, he was a bit better against lefties (359/422/468) than righties (335/396/447) but both lines were excellent. He maintained an excellent line drive rate throughout the year, hitting liners 24.4% of the time in AA (8.9 points better than the Eastern League average) and 22.3% of the time in AAA (3.5 point better than the PCL average). He's not a burner, but Reynolds just doesn't have the same speed as most short stops despite the 20 stolen bases. The lack of speed hurts his range but he is pretty sure-handed with the ones he does get to with soft hands and a plus throwing arm. He made 16 errors at short stop with a .963 fielding percentage in 431 chances while also making one error at second base where he played 21 games, getting 92 chances. Reynolds is a baseball rat and understands how to play the game the right way, being dubbed "a grinder" by AAA manager Wally Backman. He looks to be similar to LJ Mazzilli in that he will squeeze every ounce of talent out of his average tools.

[Ceetar]

metsmarathon wrote: projected 2015 WAR for available shortstops, per steamer, as shown by fangraphs... fwiw... hanley ramirez 2.9 WAR in 532 PA asdrubal cabrera 1.9 WAR in 639 PA steven drew 1.3 WAR in 558 PA jj hardy 2.7 WAR in 620 PA jimmy rollins 2.2 WAR in 629 PA predicted to not really play shortstop anymore in 2015 mike aviles 0 WAR in 1 PA alex gonzalez 0 WAR in 1 PA jed lowrie 0 WAR in 1 PA <---- regardless, he might be a decent buy low pick...? hiroyuki nakajima 0 WAR in 1 PA for comparison, wilmer flores 2.1 WAR in 551 PA

Doesn't seem to be any reliability scores available yet. I suspect it's low for Flores, especially since all his value is predicated on him playing an above average SS which unfortunately is still up in the air. Actually has him playing a better SS than Tejada, which seems like a pipe dream to me.

I guess Jed Lowrie's okay. Might be worth a bit as long as you don't have to over-commit to him. First professional HR in Citi Field after all.

[Frayed Knot]

Buzz is saying 3/$40 for Hardy to stay in Bal'mer

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Still waiting for that Didi Gregorius deal!

[Zvon]

We need that shortstop and/or that outfielder. I don't know which will be resolved first, but it should effect the approach to the other. It could decide if the position can be carried (possibly as is) or really needs a big upgrade. So for now I'll just sit back and watch.

Time to get to work Sandy. We want something nice for Christmas.

[Ceetar]

Zvon wrote: We need that shortstop and/or that outfielder. I don't know which will be resolved first, but it should effect the approach to the other. It could decide if the position can be carried (possibly as is) or really needs a big upgrade. So for now I'll just sit back and watch. Time to get to work Sandy. We want something nice for Christmas.

nah, doesn't have to be for Christmas. we want something nice for my Birthday (3/25). Plenty of time.

[Zvon]

Ceetar wrote: Zvon wrote: We need that shortstop and/or that outfielder. I don't know which will be resolved first, but it should effect the approach to the other. It could decide if the position can be carried (possibly as is) or really needs a big upgrade. So for now I'll just sit back and watch. Time to get to work Sandy. We want something nice for Christmas. nah, doesn't have to be for Christmas. we want something nice for my Birthday (3/25). Plenty of time.

Not Christmas? snif...snif...
SOB!

[Lefty Specialist]

Zvon wrote: We need that shortstop and/or that outfielder. I don't know which will be resolved first, but it should effect the approach to the other. It could decide if the position can be carried (possibly as is) or really needs a big upgrade. So for now I'll just sit back and watch. Time to get to work Sandy. We want something nice for Christmas.

The last time Sandy got us something for Christmas, it was Chris Young. There's some high-grade anthracite for you.

[Zvon]

I counted Grandy as an early gift.

[Zvon]

Not that it was the greatest gift....didn't totally suck though.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Doesn't seem to be any reliability scores available yet. I suspect it's low for Flores, especially since all his value is predicated on him playing an above average SS which unfortunately is still up in the air. Actually has him playing a better SS than Tejada, which seems like a pipe dream to me.

Yeah, I wouldn't say that's up in the air so much as off in the ether. I'd find it highly surprising to see Flores play an above-average shortstop, or an above-average anything.

[seawolf17]

I'm going to beat the Bring Back Jose drum all winter. Toronto owes him at least $70M ($22/$22/$22/$22 or a $4 buyout).

Tell me why some combination of Colon/Gee/Niese/Murphy/Tejada/prospect doesn't get it done.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I don't believe they will go with Flores except as a Plan B at short.

I think he's Plan A at second, with Hererra at AAA and Muffy traded.

I think its very likely that the deal Muffy goes in brings us a SS as that free agent class doesn't look real good. I'd kick the tires of Jed Lowrie and determine what his deal is -- he's had one solid year as a starter so far, but you could say the same about Tejada if you tried.

@Seawolf -- I could get behind Reyes as an idea but at 22M I don't think it's terribly wise.

[Edgy MD]

That contract was signed after his outlier season, with an .877 OPS. He's been 100 points lower since then. No way Sandy takes the butt end of that contract without some generous cash-eatin' by Toronto.

[Lefty Specialist]

• Mike Aviles *
  Asdrubal Cabrera
  Stephen Drew
  Alex Gonzalez
  J.J. Hardy (signed)
  Jed Lowrie
  John McDonald
  Hiroyuki Nakajima *
  Hanley Ramirez
  Jimmy Rollins *

* � player whose current contract includes 2015 option.

The FA Marketplace, According to Cots' Baseball Contracts

Ya know, that's a list that makes me want to play Wilmer Flores at shortstop for a year.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I was going to say that too, but I was afraid someone
would chuck a sneaker at me or something.

[Ceetar]

Hanley!

dunno what type of contract he's looking for, and he's not gonna be great defensively, but better than Flores I would suspect, and he hits.

plus, can slide him to DH once that's instituted.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I was down on Sandy for having not pulled the trigger on a shortstop trade before the season, but as things turned out the rumored Young Gun SS candidates weren't all as good as Ruben Tejada & Flores were.

Popular early choice Nick Franklin wound up playing most of his games at second base for Seattle then wound up in Tampa as part of the 3-way David Price deal.
777 OPS in AAA but hit just .160 combined in 90 PA between Seattle and Tampa.

Seattle held onto Brad Miller but he was nothing special beyond a little pop this year either. 10-36-221/288/365//653 in 411 PA. In 100+ fewer PAs, Flores was 6-29-251/286/378 //664. Basically, the same guy.

Lunchbucket favorite Didi Gregorius eventually grabbed a job with Arizona but in 299 PA hit 6-27-226/290/363//653. Exact same OPS as Miller, yes.

Arizona's other guy, Nick Ahmed, was going to make Gregorious available, and still might. He spent nearly the whole year in AAA Reno where he OPSed at 798. That's pretty good, but (you guessed it) not Wilmer Flores good.

[Edgy MD]

Not definitive, but indicative of a minor victory --- if a pyrrhic one --- for Sandy's restraint. Now we go back to the same situation with perhaps many of the same names on his list. All maybe a year older with that much of their growing pains behind them, but the same can mostly be said of Tejada and Flores too.

What's amazing is that Tejada --- along with Duda and Grandy --- ended up having one of the highest walk rates in the league. If he even hit .250, he would have been a clear asset.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: Not definitive, but indicative of a minor victory --- if a pyrrhic one --- for Sandy's restraint ...

As was the non-sgning of Stephen Drew
Sandy made a reference last off-season to expecting somewhat of a regression to the norm for both Drew & Tejada and that the difference you'd get from each would hardly be worth $20 million (he was assuming a 2x$10 -ish deal which was what was being rumored at the time)

Drew WAR 2013 = 3.1;
2014 = -0.3 for what turned out to be $10 million and about 2/3 of the season

Tejada WAR 2013 = -1.1;
2014 = +1.4 for $1.1 mil



Now maybe things turn out differently if SD signs during the winter (IOW, if a Boras client acts NOT like a Boras client) and plays all year, but again, probably not to the tune of close to $20 million worth.
This makes it the 2nd year in a row where shunning the fashionable "get" (the MUST get in the minds of some) turned out to be the better move. 2013 = Michael Bourn

[smg58]

The "duh" way of discouraging teams from making qualifying offers to borderline players is to make it clear that your client will take the offer.

The irony is that now Drew can probably be had for a song, and might be a bargain for precisely that reason.

The other option to consider is that there are a number of elite shortstop prospects (Scounting Book has five in the top ten), and Syndegaard would get us at least most of the way there for any of them.