2014 IPP: Daniel Murphy

[Benjamin Grimm]

It was moderately popular last year, so we'll try it again this year. IPP stands for Individual Player Predictions. These will be threads where we share our expectations of how a player will perform in the current year. Feel free to make your predictions as specific or as vague as you like. (You can find a listing of the 2013 IPPs here.)

I like Daniel Murphy and I think he's going to have a good year. .290, 14 homers, 38 doubles. I also think he'll walk more than he has in the past. Whether it will be enough to induce the Mets to give him a contract extension after the season remains to be seen. I'd like to see them sign him to a multi-year deal this offseason (maybe four years?) but my guess is that he'll become a free agent after 2015 and will be elsewhere by Opening Day 2016, if not sooner.

[Edgy MD]

If he walks more, it'd be hard not give him a contract extension. He's otherwise pretty predictable from year to year, injuries aside, and it's only the lack of walks that is the difference between him being an asset and him being an asset for a good team.

[Ceetar]

.290/.330/.434 14 home runs. solid enough defense.

Did you know Murphy stole 23! bases last season? I think he'll hold that at 16 in 2014.

[duan]

I'd be thinking he should lead off against Righties (.344 obp vs RHP), and Chris Young (.363 opb vs LHP) should against Lefties and get ourselves more Juan Lageres in Centrefield.

[smg58]

He'll do something close to his .290/.333/.424 career numbers. Won't get extended or traded.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Unless he goes in a more explosive Spring Training Blockbuster than even I am imagining, his year will look exactly like the back of his baseball card.

Not much else in this crazy world you can bank on, but Muffy being Muffy is one of them.

[ashie62]

Last season and this season will be his career years....

[Zvon]

If he stays healthy (50-50):

.299/.336/.417, 9 hr, 41 doubles.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

duan wrote: I'd be thinking he should lead off against Righties (.344 obp vs RHP), and Chris Young (.363 opb vs LHP) should against Lefties and get ourselves more Juan Lageres in Centrefield.

I kinda like this idea. I mean, I don't think it'll happen, but I like it.

I'm feeling like SMG and JCL. I mean, if anything, his walk rate's been in steady, small decline. Unless he and Duda pull some sort of bizarre, road-trip '80s-movie body-switch thing that teaches both to be a little more like the other, I don't see that changing.

141 G, 602 PA, .292/.320/.418, 80 R, 12 HR, 63 RBI, 46 XBH, 12 SB, 5% walk rate or thereabouts

[Guest d'Kong76]

Agree that what we've seen is what we'll get vibe.

[MFS62]

.290, 50 XBH. You know, the usual.

Later

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Muffy is injured for the second time this spring.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah. One wonders if this is the year he stumbles, Ikelike,through mystery injuries --- where "we're gonna sit him for two days; he wants to get out there and if this were September, he would be, but we want to be safe" turns into 11 weeks of headscratching.

[Guest sharpie]

I think we might be seeing a fair amount of Eric Young at second base.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Here's the Baseball Prospectus entry from its 2014 annual, released just before last season began:

Murphy is the sort of player the Mets seem to be developing in abundance. He hits for a decent average, but paucities of on-base and slugging force his questionable defense into more demanding positions than he can play. The -7.5 FRAA doesn't tell the whole story: When Ike Davis is repeatedly caught off first base because he needs to pursue everything to his right [because of Murphy's limited range] that's rarified air. Three years ago, the Mets thought they had a big league hitter on their hands, and searched desperately for a place to play him. But the hitting leveled off and the search has failed. He may hit through the end of the decade, but he won't be a viable starter nearly as long.

[Vic Sage]

I like Daniel Murphy and I think he's going to have a good year. .290, 14 homers, 38 doubles. I also think he'll walk more than he has in the past.

2014= .289/9hr/37dbl with 39 BBs (which is his career average).

very close to Grimm's projections, but just a hair short. and considering his career avg = .290/10/40, its a shade short of those numbers, too. And his .332 OPB isn't an improvement, nor does his .734 OPS quite match his career .752. In other words, his numbers this season were pretty consistent with his career to date. And if he were a good middle IFer (or a decent catcher or a GG-quality CFer), this would be perfectly good offensive production. But for a below-average 2bman, they're just fair and nothing to get excited about.

so i agree totally with the Baseball Prospectus pre-season analysis and, despite his all star appearance, nothing changed this year.

[Edgy MD]

I'm just trying to figure who the other players in this "abundance" of decent hitters forced into tougher positions are?

Flores is sure on that track. Thole? Duda was, I guess, up until this season.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy MD wrote: I'm just trying to figure who the other players in this "abundance" of decent hitters forced into tougher positions are? Flores is sure on that track. Thole? Duda was, I guess, up until this season.

'Spin, way back when? Matt Reynolds? Campbell, potentially?

[Edgy MD]

Valdespin was more like Alfonso Soriano, I think. Some guys you try to arrest their fall down the defensive spectrum. Some guys, you try to force their ascension up it.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I'm just trying to figure who the other players in this "abundance" of decent hitters forced into tougher positions are? Flores is sure on that track. Thole? Duda was, I guess, up until this season.

Duda, obviously. Though yeah, Duda alone doesn't constitute an abundance, even if Duda in the outfield was such an egregious miscalculation of matching skills to position.

Here's BP's take on Duda in the outfield, excerpted from the team comment, rather than from the player comment section:

Duda, "if there is a merciful god, will never be forced to play in the outfield again. It was like watching an eager but uncoordinated puppy trying to play catch with a Frisbee sized for a St. Bernard."