Has anybody mentioned Stephen Drew?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Sano's a third baseman. Drew would be their starter in the hole.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Reports say that Boras is looking for a multi-year deal with a "opt out" after the first year.

Which means that if he's good in 2014, you lose him, and if he sucks, you're stuck with him for multiple years. It doesn't seem like any rational team would go for that.

[Edgy MD]

Well, what's weird is that the prior reports said that the Mets wanted to go short. Now there's this notion of an out and reports say, NO, the Mets want to lock him up for three years.

Sounds like both sides are grandstanding.

[ashie62]

Being that spring training is almost upon us something with Drew should pop soon, to me it feels like real soon...

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Reports say that Boras is looking for a multi-year deal with a "opt out" after the first year. Which means that if he's good in 2014, you lose him, and if he sucks, you're stuck with him for multiple years. It doesn't seem like any rational team would go for that.

Well, if you sign him for 2-3 you are stuck with him anyway. That works for me. Hope he's good this year, hope he opts out, get an extra draft pick to supplement the one that _hopefully_ won't be protected and you might lose by signing someone else. Gives you the freedom to pursue other free agents next year without giving up on having a first round pick.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yeah, but if you sign him for three years and he's good, you only keep him for one. The only way you end up with him for three years is if he sucks. What kind of team would go for that?

[Edgy MD]

There are worse things than getting him for one good year though. Teams get escape clauses in the form of option years. So it's not unreasonable for players to ask for them, even if it's a tough sell.

Compromise: sign him for two and split the risk. Or two plus an option. He can get the opt-out on the second year and the team can get the opt-in on the third.

it's negotiating. It's actually coming closer to the Mets position and that's good.

[Benjamin Grimm]

If the opt out is after the second of three years, that's much more acceptable than if it's after the first year.

[G-Fafif]

I believe there's the raw material for a negative advertising campaign here.

V/O

If Stephen Drew wants to be a Met, why is he so anxious to leave the team after only one year?

If Stephen Drew is such a terrific shortstop, why isn't he signed to a contract yet?

What is Stephen Drew hiding? And why does he want to keep hiding it from 30 prospective employers?

CANDIDATE

I'm Ruben Tejada, and you know I'll be in Port St. Lucie this week. Where will Stephen Drew be? I haven't seen him.

Have you?

Paid for by the Committee to Retain Ruben; Jeff Wilpon, chairman

[Edgy MD]

"Stephen Drew is represented by SCOTT BORAS, agent to such notorious figures as Alex Rodriguez, Francisco Rodr�guez, and Kenny Rogers. Want Stephen Drew on the Mets? Better clean out that jail cell under the stands at Citi Field!"

[G-Fafif]

Stephen Drew spent 2013 in RED socks.

For most of the 20th century, America fought a red menace.

After our brave military fought long and hard to tear down a wall, Stephen Drew was more than happy to play his games in the shadow of another foreboding wall...a MONSTER of a wall.

Stephen Drew. Cold war nightmares.

Why would we ever want to go back?

[Centerfield]

I would hate to be Stephen Drew this week.

"Hey any more offers come in?"

Who fucking cares? Ralph Kiner just died. Show some respect.

"Um. Ok."

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

G-Fafif wrote: I believe there's the raw material for a negative advertising campaign here. V/O If Stephen Drew wants to be a Met, why is he so anxious to leave the team after only one year? If Stephen Drew is such a terrific shortstop, why isn't he signed to a contract yet? What is Stephen Drew hiding? And why does he want to keep hiding it from 30 prospective employers? CANDIDATE I'm Ruben Tejada, and you know I'll be in Port St. Lucie this week. Where will Stephen Drew be? I haven't seen him. Have you? Paid for by the Committee to Retain Ruben; Jeff Wilpon, chairman

I'm Johnny Lunchbucket, and I approve this message.

[Lefty Specialist]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm Omar Quintanilla, and I approve this message.

Fixed that for you.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Don't Be Hemmed In By Those Phonies Asking For More And More Years, Or Making The Same Old Empty Promises Of Leaving...

Look To The Future...

Go Green...

Say It: With FLORES!

[MFS62]

Everybody is talking about Drew, but has anybody actually talked to him?
Does he exist, or he some imaginary figure like a unicorn?
Maybe we could ask Nancy Drew to solve the mystery.

Later

[Vic Sage]

As long as its no more than a 2-3 year deal, i'm ok with him having an "opt out"; i've been hoping they wouldn't sign him for more than 1 year, so why should i be concerned if he opted out after only 1 year? If he has a great year, then great for him and for us. And if he stinks, well... if they are willing to sign him for 2+ years, they're running the risk of him stinking for the duration of the deal anyway, opt out or no, so they just have to sign him at a favorable price that doesn't prohibit them from dumping, dealing or living with it. And even if he sucks, he might opt out anyway just to get away from CitiField, the team and/or NYC.

They're not BUILDING around Stephen Drew, so i don't care if he leaves. He's a short-term stopgap we could put in place to help the team not stink quite so much as we continue to develop our future SS options. Maybe a year in AAA or on the bench as a utility guy forces Tejada to grow up and work harder. Maybe one of the other prospects work out. Maybe other FAs or trade options become available.

[Benjamin Grimm]

An opt-out after the first year of a three-year deal means you end up paying him more money if he's bad than you do if he's good. It doesn't make any sense to me. My concern isn't with him leaving after one, it's with him having the second and third years guaranteed only if he's bad.

[nymr83]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: An opt-out after the first year of a three-year deal means you end up paying him more money if he's bad than you do if he's good. It doesn't make any sense to me. My concern isn't with him leaving after one, it's with him having the second and third years guaranteed only if he's bad.

I agree completely with the big orange guy, If Drew & his agent think the market for him will be better next offseason then we should be willing to offer a 1 year deal, no further risk to either side. If Drew wants the security of a multi-year deal, he should accept the risk that the Mets get a good price on him if he plays well.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: An opt-out after the first year of a three-year deal means you end up paying him more money if he's bad than you do if he's good. It doesn't make any sense to me. My concern isn't with him leaving after one, it's with him having the second and third years guaranteed only if he's bad.

What if he's not bad or good, merely pretty good. I don't really care if it's 1,2,3 or 17 years, if the Mets think he's not going to be useful they shouldn't sign him at all. And even if he's bad in the first year (or hurt) doesn't mean he will be the year after. Additionally, even if he's good and walks you get a draft pick AND you get a year of a good SS, which you know, is kinda the point.

[Frayed Knot]

Remember that the team only gets a draft pick for a leaving player if they are willing to make him one of the top certain number of players in the league (forget the exact number) by offering him an arbitration amount that reaches that level. That minimum level this year was $14.1 million (it was something like $13.5 last year - the first year this particular system has been in effect - so it may be closer to $15 next off-season).
IOW, gaining a pick for a leaving FA is hardly an automatic thing so it's not something a team can plan for when it originally signs him. If Drew, or someone in a similar situation, doesn't have a good year then his team is going to be less likely to make that qualifying offer, and if you do make it you have to be willing to use him at that price if he accepts.

[Ceetar]

well yes, but if it's a three year deal, (say 3/30 ) he's not opting out of 2/20 to accept 1/15. And he has to decline the 1/15 before fishing for better than 2/20.

[nymr83]

Ceetar wrote: well yes, but if it's a three year deal, (say 3/30 ) he's not opting out of 2/20 to accept 1/15. And he has to decline the 1/15 before fishing for better than 2/20.

Why would he not? 1.15 is better than 2.20 for 95 % of players.

[Ceetar]

Nymr83 wrote: Ceetar wrote: well yes, but if it's a three year deal, (say 3/30 ) he's not opting out of 2/20 to accept 1/15. And he has to decline the 1/15 before fishing for better than 2/20. Why would he not? 1.15 is better than 2.20 for 95 % of players.

What if he gets hurt? what if it's 2/24? what if the Mets decide not to offer it?

[MFS62]

Ralph Kiner told a story of when he was with the Pirates and asked GM Branch Rickey for a raise.
Branch told him, "We finished last with you and we can finist last without you".
Unless the Mets feel Drew would significantly improve where they finish, they might pass.

Later

[Edgy MD]

They might pass indeed. They have so far. I'm sure they've coldly calculated what he'd be likely worth to the team and set their ceiling based on the expected financial value of that worth.

But they didn't finish in last. And they didn't finish where they did with him. So that only applies so far.

[Mex17]

The guy can either accept the reality of what he is worth and sign a contract to play baseball for millions of dollars (albiet a few millions less than what he wanted or what his silver-tongued agent "promised" him) or he can not and apply for a job at the nearest Wal-Mart. It's really that simple.

Clock's ticking.

[nymr83]

Theres a great insider article today about how valuable draft picks are based on the expectd career WAR of a pick and what you would pay for that in the open market... the vonclusion is that most of these free agents with draft picks attached have very little value. Signing Drew is actually a NEGATIVE VALUE proposition top any of the teams who lose a first rounder. For the Mets it's ok since they only lose a third, but not on what works out to a 1 year.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, the draft pick associated with signing Drew can range anywhere from #11 overall to maybe 80th or so, so obviously the value is going to vary widely depending on which team does the inking.
Also, by linking this process to [u:f77o4p95]Career[/u:f77o4p95] WAR assumes that the team that foregoes the FA to make keep that pick is going to get all that value, something that's not likely.

IOW, your mileage may vary.

[nymr83]

Frayed Knot wrote: Yeah, the draft pick associated with signing Drew can range anywhere from #11 overall to maybe 80th or so, so obviously the value is going to vary widely depending on which team does the inking. Also, by linking this process to Career WAR assumes that the team that foregoes the FA to make keep that pick is going to get all that value, something that's not likely. IOW, your mileage may vary.

Sorry, they actually used the first x years of war covering the pick through arbitration, though most pf the value probably comes from pre arb superstars.