Free Agents Ain't Free. A Mets Shopper's Guide

[batmagadanleadoff]

A Mets free-agent shoppers guide


Players who could be of value to the Mets in a few weeks: Shin-Soo Choo, Stephen Drew, Bronson Arroyo.

When putting together a list of the priorities for the Mets in this offseason's free-agent market, you must be realistic. To think that the team is going to land anyone with a nine-figure salary is a longshot (no matter what Sandy Alderson says), so cross Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury off any wish-lists. Logic would also dictate that pitchers for whom the market might provide a four-year commitment comparable to the one Edwin Jackson got last winter (four years, $52 million) are not what this front office is looking for, so scratch off Matt Garza and Ricky Nolasco (and probably Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum and Ervin Santana). We also left out a few pitchers with strong preferences for specific teams or markets-- A.J. Burnett (Pirates), Dan Haren (West Coast), Tim Hudson (Braves) and Hiroki Kuroda (Yankees/Japan). But there are players who would be good fits for this team, which most likely will be shopping for multiple outfielders, a shortstop, both starting pitchers and relievers, and maybe a backup catcher. What is below is a list arranged alphabetically, rather than by rank, of 20 targets that we deemed realistic based on educated guesses and available information. When the World Series concludes, these players will be on the market for the Mets to pursue. Feel free to share your thoughts on priorities and targets in the comments. Jose Abreu, 1B: The first name on our list is a wild card, a Cuban defector who hit .360 in six games in the World Baseball Classic. The comparables are to the good version of Ryan Howard, which would be a great fit for the Mets. But the team already has a first base glut and the cost for an unknown might be too high. Bronson Arroyo, SP: This will probably be a name you'll hear a lot, partly because Arroyo was so willing to acknowledge interest in the Mets when approached by the media a few weeks ago. Arroyo has made at least 30 starts in each of the last nine seasons, and his WAR has been over 2 in five of the last seven seasons (3.6 and 2.9 the last two) pitching in ballparks that are hitter-friendly. It would be interesting to see what he could do in 16 to 17 starts in Citi Field. Carlos Beltran, OF: We feel obligated to list him (we'll get plenty of questions if we don't). Beltran would be an ideal Shane Victorino-like signing if the Mets tried to mimic what the Red Sox did last season, as he's shown he has something left (.282 batting average, and an average of 28 homers and 3-WAR per season in two years with the Cardinals). But if we ranked everyone we wrote about, we'd rate him last among realistic chances of signing with the Mets. Marlon Byrd, OF: Byrd liked being a Met, the Mets liked having him, and he fits a team need, so a second tour doesn't seem out of the question. But a caution for anyone thinking Byrd will replicate his .291 batting average -- his ground-ball batting average in 2013 was .321, nearly 100 points higher than he hit on grounders from 2009 to 2012. Top Free Agent OF If Money Was No Object 1. Jacoby Ellsbury 2. Shin-Soo Choo 3. Curtis Granderson 4. Marlon Byrd 5. Nelson Cruz John Buck, C: While we're talking second tours, Buck could be the veteran backup the Mets are looking for. The expectations and need would ideally not be high so long as Travis d'Arnaud stays healthy. If not Buck, the Mets targets could include Tigers backup Brayan Pena (.297 BA, 713 OPS in 229 at-bats) and Rangers backup Geovany Soto (.245 batting average, nine homers in 163 at-bats), or defensive specialist Jose Molina of the Rays. Chris Capuano, SP: There are six lefties of a very similar ilk that are free agents -- Capuano, Bruce Chen Joe Saunders, Paul Maholm, Jason Vargas and Barry Zito. Each is well-experienced and has been above-average at some point in their career. In each case, their best days are probably behind them, but they've still got something left. If the Mets decide they want a veteran lefty starter as their innings eater, they could go for any one of these six, with little difference between them. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees, RP: Chamberlain averaged nearly 95 mph on his fastball this season but will be a low-end purchase because his slider has not been close to what it once was for the last two seasons. His awful September (he allowed runs in four of six appearances in one stretch) won't help his value either. But the Mets could provide him a chance at a fresh start. Shin-Soo Choo, OF: The Mets have already been linked to Choo and it's no secret they covet his high on-base percentage and modest power (though his poor history against lefties makes it hard to think of him as a franchise-savior). If the price is comparable to Hunter Pence's 5-year, $90 million, he'll be elsewhere in 2014. For an in-depth evaluation on Choo, click here. Nelson Cruz, OF: Since the Mets had no problem taking on a PED-suspended player in Byrd, they'd probably be willing to go after Cruz, who has averaged 27 homers, 12 steals and 125 games the last five seasons. The downside is the homer-deflation factor given the move from Rangers Ballpark to Citi Field and that Cruz is a below-average defender. Stephen Drew, SS: It's our educated guess that Drew tops the Mets list among available shortstops in free agency. He's above-average offensively (.777 OPS with the Red Sox) whose 10 percent walk rate over the last three seasons will suit the Mets and is an average (maybe a hair below average) defender and baserunner. He's above-average offensively (.777 OPS with the Red Sox) whose 10 percent walk rate over the last three seasons will suit the Mets and is an average (maybe a hair below average) defender and baserunner. What will make him affordable and also a bit risky is his injury history (he missed about half the season in 2011 and 2012). Yunel Escobar, SS: Escobar's best seasons at shortstop rate slightly better than Drew's -- primarily because of his defense. The question marks with him are in issues regarding his lack of hustle and his wearing eye black with text that included a homophobic slur. Escobar has an option for $5 million in each of the next two years, so the Rays may not let him reach the free-agent market. Jason Frasor, RP: Frasor is a veteran righty who has ties to Mets special assistant to the GM J.P. Ricciardi as someone who pitched for the Blue Jays from 2004 to 2011. His appeal is reliability in that he's never rated below replacement level and averaged 58 games per season the last 10 years in a middle-relief/setup role. He also has shown the ability to (usually) get out both righties and lefties at a high rate. Curtis Granderson, OF:If Choo turns out to be too expensive, Granderson represents the next-best reasonable option. He would bring power and speed, having averaged 36 homers and 16 steals with the Yankees from 2009 to 2011, though how much of the former would translate to Citi Field makes for a good debate. One thing working against the Mets would be if Granderson felt the pull to return home to Chicago, particularly if Joe Girardi becomes the Cubs manager. LaTroy Hawkins, RP: Bringing Hawkins back would make a lot of sense. He's cost-effective, he's reliable, and he has experience as a closer if the need arose. If he chose to retire or sign elsewhere, another free-agent of similar status who would be cost-comparable would be someone like a Kyle Farnsworth. J.P Howell, RP: Probably will be the costliest of the lefty relievers, because his history includes four good years in that role, and he's good enough against right-handed hitters that he's not strictly a one-batter reliever like a Scott Rice, Tim Byrdak, or Pedro Feliciano. Howell closed the regular season very well for the Dodgers, allowing three runs (and one of 14 inherited runners to score) in his last 20 innings. Josh Johnson, SP: Johnson ended the season with a forearm strain, and the scare in signing him would be that at some point he'd suffer another injury in line with those that have plagued his career. Top Free Agent SP If Money Was No Object 1. Matt Garza 2. Ricky Nolasco 3. Ubaldo Jimenez 4. Hiroki Kuroda 5. Tim Lincecum But the upside is a pitcher who can put up Matt Harvey-like numbers when healthy (6.6 WAR in 2009, 7.2 WAR in 2010). If the Mets are going to pursue creative solutions over spending large sums, Johnson is the kind of pitcher who will be on their list. Boone Logan, Yankees RP: Logan is more of a one-batter left-handed option than Howell, as he allowed four homers to the 74 right-handed hitters he faced in 2013. His history against lefties is pretty good (an above-average rate of misses on 35 percent of swings against him over the last three seasons), though not untouchable (10 homers, .404 slugging percentage allowed in that span). Nate McLouth, OF: McLouth was a 1.7 WAR outfielder with 12 homers and 30 steals in 146 games for the Orioles (his most games played in a season since 2008). He's an average defender in left field whose upside is in his hustle and high energy (a la Eric Young with more power). He would be an interesting option if the Mets traded Daniel Murphy and moved Young to second base. David Murphy, OF: Murphy is an under-the-radar buy-low option who averaged a .346 on-base percentage, 14 homers and 2-WAR in 128 games from 2008 to 2012 before a major performance decline in 2013. One of Murphy's issues was the opposite of Byrd's -- a decline of nearly 100 points from 2011/2012 to this season on his success hitting ground balls, which trimmed about 20 points from his batting average. The team that goes after him will be one thinking those numbers can get back to what they were, which would make him a reasonable investment. Jhonny Peralta, SS: Peralta may come discounted because of his recent 50-game PED suspension. He has the best offensive numbers of anyone available at shortstop: his average season from 2005 to 2013 is a .332 on-base percentage with 17 home runs. The knock on his game is his defense, but his numbers are better than you think. He's rated almost exactly average on defense there over the last three seasons. Others to keep in mind: Starting pitchers Jason Hammel (dealt with injuries in 2013, but effective when pitching for Orioles) and Phil Hughes (who should be better just for no longer pitching in Yankee Stadium), righty relievers Tim Stauffer and Jamey Wright (alternatives in the Jason Frasor mold), lefty specialists Scott Downs of the Braves and Javier Lopez of the Giants, outfielder Mike Morse (a defensive liability who has averaged 19 homers a season since the start of 2010), and infielder Nick Punto (2.1 WAR in 2013, could share shortstop with Ruben Tejada).

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/78684/a-mets-free-agent-shoppers-guide

[Edgy MD]

I just don't know what's to get excited about there. Murphy, Peralta, and Abreu seem like targets the Mets will look at closely. Cruz sure fits the profile of the team buying low on ex-PED-cons, but I agree about the translation rate of power from Texas to Queens.

I bet we hear some about Wladimir Balentien too.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Having David Murphy and Daniel Murphy on the same team will be a Schaefer-tallying nightmare.

The Mets have a "glut" at first base? I hardly think so. They have a lot of guys who can play there, but that doesn't mean that it's not a weakness that needs to be addressed.

The article above is interesting, but it makes my head spin. Most of the names are unfamiliar to me, so I don't know how I feel about the players coming to the Mets. But Byrd will command more money than the Mets should give him. Buck is a been-there-done-that, I'd say. A return by Beltran would be nice. (Vanis takee!) I expect that Hawkins will be back.

It's our educated guess that Drew tops the Mets list among available shortstops in free agency.

How old is he?

[Edgy MD]

I think we can be reasonably assured that the team will look hard (probably harder) at the trade route for acquiring offensive help.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah that's my thought, although I suppose it's worth a shot at Abreu.

[Vic Sage]

We need a power-hitting RFer, a SS with at least decent offensive production, and reliable production at 1B.
I'll take Abreu at 1b, Perahlta at SS, and with that kind of offense from the SS, then take a flyer on a bounce-back from Murphy in RF.

[Ceetar]

Vic Sage wrote: We need a power-hitting RFer, a SS with at least decent offensive production, and reliable production at 1B. I'll take Abreu at 1b, Perahlta at SS, and with that kind of offense from the SS, then take a flyer on a bounce-back from Murphy in RF.

need a left fielder too, and probably a center fielder.

[Edgy MD]

The desire to solve all problems at once is a dangerous trap. With a healthy organization of hundreds of players, some tend to solve themselves. If you get the right guy in one position, sometimes, just stabilizing another is a big step. And more talent is freed up there.

Boston's got a crappy thirdbaseman and their rotation isn't deep. Detroit's defense is a laugh and Andy Dirks ain't gonna carry ya. But you go on, solve what you can, and keep playing the games.

[Vic Sage]

if we get power from 1b, SS and rf, we can live with Young's 40+ SBs in LF and some combo of Legares, DenDekker, Nieuhenheis and/or whatever spare parts we pick up for CF. You can't (or at least shouldn't) sign an entirely new FA outfield.

[Edgy MD]

There you go.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm with Vic.

I also think starting pitching is going to be important if the Mets are really planning to try to play in October. They have two guys in their rotation who aren't innings-limited. (Gee and Niese.) Even if Harvey pitches in 2014, I'm sure they'll be cautious with him. Wheeler will be limited. Syndergaard and Montero too, if they join the Mets during the summer. And Mejia as well, I guess. That's why I think that guys like Harang and Matsuzaka should be in the mix, and hopefully they'll acquire one or two veteran pitchers significantly better than those two.

[Vic Sage]

i don't think we should waste our time on FA pitching... with the organizational depth we have at that position, it'd be a misallocation of resources, and pitchers are hard to count on anyway, especially relievers. They could take a flyer on a cheap arm with some Spring Training invitees, like we did with Dickey, on the hope of catching lightning in a bottle, or at least an arm that can take some pressure off the kids. But i'm fine with a rotation of Niese, Harvey, Gee, Wheeler and Mejia, with guys like Torres, Montero, Syndegaard in reserve unless beaten out in camp by a vet in the spring. And the last FA reliever we signed should be the last FA reliever we sign, as far as i'm concerned. And backup catchers, retreads and other 30-somethings looking for long-term big money deals shouldn't be high on our list either.

I tell you what, if we're anywhere in the vicinity of being competitive next July, and we are in dire need of another SP at the time, i'm sure we have the pitching prospects to put together a deal to get one. I just don't think we should waste any time with it now.

[ashie62]

Edgy MD wrote: I just don't know what's to get excited about there. Murphy, Peralta, and Abreu seem like targets the Mets will look at closely. Cruz sure fits the profile of the team buying low on ex-PED-cons, but I agree about the translation rate of power from Texas to Queens. I bet we hear some about Wladimir Balentien too.

You do know he is RIP?

[metirish]

Shin-Soo Choo, OF: The Mets have already been linked to Choo and it's no secret they covet his high on-base percentage and modest power (though his poor history against lefties makes it hard to think of him as a franchise-savior). If the price is comparable to Hunter Pence's 5-year, $90 million, he'll be elsewhere in 2014.

hardly a ringing endorsement for a guy I keep hearing the Mets must sign......I confess to knowing not much about him but with all the talk I didn't expect to read that...course it's one opinion.

[seawolf17]

Ashie62 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I just don't know what's to get excited about there. Murphy, Peralta, and Abreu seem like targets the Mets will look at closely. Cruz sure fits the profile of the team buying low on ex-PED-cons, but I agree about the translation rate of power from Texas to Queens. I bet we hear some about Wladimir Balentien too. You do know he is RIP?

Wladimir Balentien just broke the Japanese single-season home run record. He most definitely not dead.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Choo's better-- or, rather, less bad-- in a corner than in center. Which, considering what we've got in hand, seems a great fit.

[ashie62]

seawolf17 wrote: Ashie62 wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I just don't know what's to get excited about there. Murphy, Peralta, and Abreu seem like targets the Mets will look at closely. Cruz sure fits the profile of the team buying low on ex-PED-cons, but I agree about the translation rate of power from Texas to Queens. I bet we hear some about Wladimir Balentien too. You do know he is RIP? Wladimir Balentien just broke the Japanese single-season home run record. He most definitely not dead.

Conflating with Greg Halman..

[Ceetar]

Well sure, we can't solve all problems/positions via free agency. But there are trades, there are trusting other guys. If we're gonna roll with Lagares and his complete lack of offense (but hey, he could improve too) and sign only one slugging OF, makes a lot more sense to me to put Duda in LF where the defense becomes less important based on having a good defensive CF instead of statuesque guys like Ankiel. Duda's a + offensive player and the Mets need that.

Of course, if you're gonna have to rely on guys already in the system having bounce-back or break-out type years, Ike Davis has more talent and ability than den Dekker, Lagares, Nieuwenhuis, Brown, Young Jr, etc. Might as well try to find the OF and roll with 1B then.

More than one way to skin a cat of course, and a lot depends on what the, financial or otherwise, price is for the pieces available elsewhere.

Choo has seemingly been floated as 'perfect' for the Mets for years now. He had a really good year this year, seems like buying high, and it seems like one of those pet FA like Orlando Hudson or Jason Marquis that people romanticize as a good fit for years leading up to the time when the actual organization has to decide who/what is a good fit.

[Lefty Specialist]

2014 should be a 'buy-low' year. I wouldn't get tied up in anything long-term; so that leaves out guys like Choo and Cruz. If there's a need later in the year, there are arms in the minors that can be used as chips.

The one exception to this would be Abreu. I think he's a must to sign for first. Then you can clear out the clutter. If he can be had at all reasonably, they should do it. Unfortunately, there looks to be a lot of competition.

Peralta intrigues me. If he can be had on a 1 or 2 year deal, I'd do it. Same for (David) Murphy.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Vic Sage wrote: i don't think we should waste our time on FA pitching... with the organizational depth we have at that position, it'd be a misallocation of resources, and pitchers are hard to count on anyway, especially relievers. They could take a flyer on a cheap arm with some Spring Training invitees, like we did with Dickey, on the hope of catching lightning in a bottle, or at least an arm that can take some pressure off the kids. But i'm fine with a rotation of Niese, Harvey, Gee, Wheeler and Mejia, with guys like Torres, Montero, Syndegaard in reserve unless beaten out in camp by a vet in the spring. And the last FA reliever we signed should be the last FA reliever we sign, as far as i'm concerned. And backup catchers, retreads and other 30-somethings looking for long-term big money deals shouldn't be high on our list either. I tell you what, if we're anywhere in the vicinity of being competitive next July, and we are in dire need of another SP at the time, i'm sure we have the pitching prospects to put together a deal to get one. I just don't think we should waste any time with it now.

I kind of agree with Vic. This team lost a lot of games because it couldn't score more than two runs. We need some serious offense.

[Edgy MD]

I don't think Lagares has a complete lack of offense.

I also don't think Abreu is a must-anything. None of us have seen the guy, nor know how to translate Cuban numbers to MLB. He had one of the greatest seasons in Cuban baseball history, but he also:

1) has the Red Sox fawning over him,
2) carries a lot of weight.
3) missed a piece of the season with a bursitis condition, which can be chronic.
4) plays first and has nowhere to go from there.

I would have the Mets take a long, close look at him, but if they pass on him, life goes on.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, reports on Abreu, though often promising, are hardly universal in their praise.
Plus, all Cuban players have a higher than normal 'unknown' factor.

[MFS62]

He'll be trying our for lots of clubs to prove he is over his surgeries.
But if he is healthy, I'd like to see the Mets take a shot at Grady Sizemore on an incentive laden (games or ABs) 1 year $1-2 million contract with a club option for $5 second year.
It would be a low (financial) risk, potentially high reward option.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

MFS62 wrote: He'll be trying our for lots of clubs to prove he is over his surgeries. But if he is healthy, I'd like to see the Mets take a shot at Grady Sizemore on an incentive laden (games or ABs) 1 year $1-2 million contract with a club option for $5 second year. It would be a low (financial) risk, potentially high reward option. Later

You've been suggesting that incentive strategy for Sizemore for at least three years now.
But at this point, seeing as how his last professional game was in 2011 and his last full/decent season was in 2008, I'm going to assume that he's retired until I hear otherwise.

[MFS62]

Frayed Knot wrote: You've been suggesting that incentive strategy for Sizemore for at least three years now. But at this point, seeing as how his last professional game was in 2011 and his last full/decent season was in 2008, I'm going to assume that he's retired until I hear otherwise.

Actually, since he was declared a free agent after the 2011 season. So its more like two years. If I did it before that, I could have been accused of tampering. (j/k)
But your point is well taken.

Later

[smg58]

I would put our biggest needs at the corner outfield spots and shortstop.

Our trade resources consist of Wilmer Flores, either Duda or Davis, and either Murphy or Young. The "great surplus of pitching talent" looks like a lot less of a surplus without Harvey. But Montero pitched more innings at AAA than Wheeler and was better, and Mejia looked very good when he pitched up here. We (and 29 other teams) could use more depth, but I see no reason to make a major priority out of a starting pitcher.

If I'm going to pay a premium for an outfielder, I want somebody I'm confident will be a major asset in 2015 as well as 2014. That rules out Beltran and Byrd (and Raul Ibanez, for that matter). Choo's bat is superb against righties, but the defensive metrics and extreme platoon splits are legit concerns for the price he will likely get. Granderson might have over-adjusted his swing to hit home runs in Dipshit Park I mean Yankee Stadium. The one-dimensional approach won't play here, but he could still be useful if he can re-adjust and the price is not exorbitant. Talking about Nelson Cruz as though switching ballparks will have the biggest negative effect on his numbers is a bit silly. It's one thing to take a guy like Byrd off the scrap heap because he was once a good player and you're really freaking desperate, but it's another to make a serious commitment in money and years to a guy who deserves (for character reasons) to be on that same scrap heap, based on numbers that are most likely an illusion. I'm for avoiding Jhonny Peralta like the plague for similar reasons. Ellsbury is undoubtedly the safest bet, but is he worth 9 digits?

The good news is that there are a whole bunch of options, and somebody's price is bound to fall.

I wonder if there's a buy-low opportunity on Josh Hamilton. He sucked this year and has a bloated, back-loaded contract, but if there's a possibility that the Angels would eat some money on the back end of it and not ask for much in return, I'm willing to talk.

And if his knee checks out OK, don't overlook Corey Hart. His numbers were as good as those for most of the guys being talked about. The only question is his health, but if I can get him for 2 and 15 I'll be as patient as necessary with him this coming season.

On one hand, Stephen Drew is OK but not great. On the other hand, OK but not great would be a major upgrade.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm with a lot of that.

[Vic Sage]

i would agree with most of this analysis too, but i'm confused by one point.

you suggest we avoid Cruz and Peralta for "character reasons", but then petition for us to take a shot at Josh Hamilton. Is there anybody less reliable than a hardcore drug addict? He's taking one day at a time (and good for him), but we should pick up the tab for his next few years? Yeah, no thanks.

And describing Byrd as "once a good player"... well, ok. i guess it depends on what you mean by "good". This career year he's having is not indicative of his career overall (OPS+102 for a corner OFer), even before he became an old, broken down PED user on the scrap heap. And what about HIS "character issues"? It was ok for Mets to overlook them because we were desperate? But not for a .280/20hr SS, when that is (arguably) the single greatest need for the franchise?

[Edgy MD]

I don't know about avoiding guys with a PED history outright. You don't want to pay good money for them, but I think that's been part of Omar's strategy. Treat them like neglected assets that you can bid low on.

Reports are that he'd like to get guys on 1-3 year, and ex(?)-dopers with something to prove are one way to get good players on such modest commitments.

OE: something like what he said.

[smg58]

I do think Hamilton is a better bet than Cruz to perform at career-norm levels next season.

I don't have a problem with giving guys second chances. I'm against giving multi-year deals to guys for whom expecting performance to stay at recent levels is unrealistic, even if you take character completely out of the equation. Melky Cabrera got a nice deal from the Jays, and while you could arguably give him a pass because of injuries, his numbers this year went back to what they were before 2011. I'd bet on Cruz getting a similar deal and being similarly unimpressive. Peralta will probably perform at the .700 OPS level he played at in 2009 and 2010. Somebody is likely to pay him for more than that, and I hope it isn't us.