Let's talk about Shin-Soo Choo

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Maybe, but does evidence really suggest that Beltran will be better than Choo over the next couple of years, Hall of Fame or no?

I think it's more likely. Is it closer to 50% more likely than 100? probably, but you gotta play the percentages. I don't know enough about Choo to guess for sure, but I don't think he's a plus CFer. OBP is one of those things that doesn't fade as fast, so that's nice, but I'm just not sure he's got enough going for him to seek him out. I'd rather make the big commitment to a younger/better player or make the minimal commitment to a guy we know is real good.

[seawolf17]

Well, you have to figure the money's going to be different. Choo's going to be looking in the $75M+ range over five+ years, whereas Beltran's probably more of a 2 years/$22M kind of package, I'd think. And Carlos has only OPS+ed less than 125 once in the past seven seasons.

Beltran's closest B-R similarity score comparison: Andre Dawson. Choo's closest comparison: Bernard Gilkey.

[seawolf17]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Beltran is never coming back. I mean, he's just not.

I remember when you traded me the first time
Saying this is it, I've had enough, 'cause like
We haven't won a game in a month
Now I'm, in a, pennant race. What?
Then you come around again and say
Baby, I miss you and I swear I'm gonna change
Trust me, remember how you went and knocked down Shea
I say, I hate you, we break up, you call me, I love you

Oooh we called it off again last time
But Oooh, this time I'm telling you, I'm telling you
We are never ever ever getting back together
We are never ever ever getting back together
You go talk to Lozano talk
To Choo then talk to me
But we are never ever ever ever getting back together

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

zackly

[Edgy MD]

seawolf17 wrote: Beltran's closest B-R similarity score comparison: Andre Dawson.

Probably his closest knee comparison, too.

Beltran was a great Met, whose memory is sadly sullied by the Mets carrying him through a couple of injury years. I imagine all resigning him would do would be to give fuel to the haters by piling a couple of decline years onto that legacy.

If the team had every damn piece in place for certain, save one, then yeah, I'd enjoy entertaining the return of Beltran.

I think they are awesome, but a lot is far from certain.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy MD wrote: Maybe, but does evidence really suggest that Beltran will be better than Choo over the next couple of years, Hall of Fame or no?

Onfield? Not necessarily.

Relative to the financial obligations-- money AND years-- their next contracts will likely involve? Oh, almost certainly. I'm no fanboy-- I like Choo's future more than Beltran's. But I think Beltran-plus-a-free-agent-starter for 2 years, plus 3 years of flexibility is a better place to be than Choo x 6 or 7 at 15-20 per.

Moot, though, as I think JCL's on point about Beltran coming back to this particular nepo-team.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

MFYs will employ Beltran to be one of their dozen DHs next year, just watch.

[seawolf17]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: MFYs will employ Beltran to be one of their dozen DHs next year, just watch.

That would SUCK.

In all honesty, I'd much rather have Carlos out there at a smaller rate until 2015 than a disabled Choo at $18M per in 2016-17-18.

[Edgy MD]

Fatalism'll kill ye.

[batmagadanleadoff]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: MFYs will employ Beltran to be one of their dozen DHs next year, just watch.

So's Carlos can go into Cooperstown with a Yankee cap on his plaque. Natch.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

"Look at that LWFS-- it doesn't look like he's vomiting so much at all, but there it is, and with such speed. He's so reverse-peristaltically graceful, he makes it look easy."

[Guest vtmet]

I don't think that I've commented on Choo yet but...

Are there any OF options available that can actually hit both LHP and RHP?

Choo's almost as bad vs LHP as Ike is...

[metsmarathon]

so, using only bb-ref's "most similar players through age" as a guide...

i'm looking at the most similar players to shin soo choo at age 29 (topped by bernard gilkey) and the most similar players to carlos beltran at age 35 (topped by andre dawson). and i'm looking at the average remainder of the careers of those top six players from age 31 onward, and age 37 onward. it's flawed, i know.

the ten players most similar to shin shoo choo at age 29, who were active at age 31, averaged three years of continued play over 371 games, worth 2.3 WAR, with a 0.268/0.329/0.411 slash line and an OPS+ of 94.

the six players most similar to carlos beltran at age 35, who were active at age 37, averaged 3 years of continued play over 326 games, worth 2.1 WAR, with a 0.260/0.337/0.439 slash line and an OPS+ of 106 (dale murphy's 26 age-37 games with an OPS+ of 1, , worth -0.9 WAR, tends to hurt the projection)

so... based on this highly flawed analysis, you'd probably expect to get about the same total level of production over a three year deal for either beltran or choo, though beltran's production would be higher while he is on the field, and choo being more likely to be on the field forthe duration.

mind you, these comparables are really out hte window, as their current production in their age-31 and -36 seasons will upse thte similarity scores a bit. i fully expect, for instance, dale murphy to drop out of beltran's comparables, and an excellent season by choo may also put him into a higher echelon of comparables.

but for an early stab in the dark using the wrong type of knife, it's not a wholly unreasonable thing to suggest that there could be a real shoice to be made.

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: MFYs will employ Beltran to be one of their dozen DHs next year, just watch. So's Carlos can go into Cooperstown with a Yankee cap on his plaque. Natch.

It's certainly worked for them, but as a Yankees fan I'd be annoyed at all these guys coming here to pad their stats in a tiny stadium for polishing their career numbers. Beltran has 344 home runs right now. Maybe he finishes at 360. a 2-3 year deal in that place could push him to 450 which would really solidify his case.

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: [i don't know enough about Choo to guess for sure, but I don't think he's a plus CFer.

Beltran isn't any kind of CFer these days and certainly won't be in coming days.
Choo is looking to be decent in CF during this short span with Cincy. Ideally he's a corner OF and absolutely has a plus-arm for RF

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Ceetar wrote: [i don't know enough about Choo to guess for sure, but I don't think he's a plus CFer. Beltran isn't any kind of CFer these days and certainly won't be in coming days. Choo is looking to be decent in CF during this short span with Cincy. Ideally he's a corner OF and absolutely has a plus-arm for RF

yeah, I just meant Choo's numbers seem better suited to a centerfielder, not quite the masher you expect from a corner guy. I'd be more willing to sign a guy like Choo for CF.

Maybe Lagares or Nieuwenhuis will show us something to be in the running for that job between Beltran and Duda.

[Frayed Knot]

We are most likely going to be in need of several outfielders.

[ashie62]

Ceetar wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: MFYs will employ Beltran to be one of their dozen DHs next year, just watch. So's Carlos can go into Cooperstown with a Yankee cap on his plaque. Natch. It's certainly worked for them, but as a Yankees fan I'd be annoyed at all these guys coming here to pad their stats in a tiny stadium for polishing their career numbers. Beltran has 344 home runs right now. Maybe he finishes at 360. a 2-3 year deal in that place could push him to 450 which would really solidify his case.

Beltran aint going to the HOF...

[ashie62]

Frayed Knot wrote: We are most likely going to be in need of several outfielders.

Yes..and Choo and Beltran are a little old and a little expensive for the task..

[Frayed Knot]

Ashie62 wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: We are most likely going to be in need of several outfielders. Yes..and Choo and Beltran are a little old and a little expensive for the task..

I'm not saying either has to be one of them, only that both, Choo in particular, should be in consideration.
In the meantime, if not one of them, I'm sure we're all ready and willing to listen to alternatives.

[Edgy MD]

Free Agent Outfielders are B'low

Starry dudes have options.

[list:25il86ir]Alfredo Amezaga
Rick Ankiel
Jeff Baker
Jason Bay
Carlos Beltran
Shin-Soo Choo
Coco Crisp *
Nelson Cruz
Rajai Davis
David DeJesus
Mark DeRosa
Matt Diaz
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jeff Francoeur
Curtis Granderson
Franklin Gutierrez
Tony Gwynn Jr.
Corey Hart
Raul Ibanez
Reed Johnson *
Austin Kearns
Jason Kubel *
Nate McLouth
Nyjer Morgan
Mike Morse
David Murphy
Xavier Nady
Laynce Nix
Hunter Pence
Juan Rivera
Luke Scott
Ryan Sweeney
Andres Torres
Chris Young *
Delmon Young
[/list:u:25il86ir]

[Frayed Knot]

I just find it funny that, even though this team desperately needs OFers, we're getting preemptive 'NO WAY' comments five months in advance on two of the guys who are likely to be among the best hitters available.

[Zvon]

Frayed Knot wrote: I just find it funny that, even though this team desperately needs OFers, we're getting preemptive 'NO WAY' comments five months in advance on two of the guys who are likely to be among the best hitters available.

Agreed.

[Edgy MD]

Mike Morse? No f'n' way.

Hunter Pence? Over my dead body.

Just thought I'd get that out of the way and narrow things down a little bit more.

[metsmarathon]

jason bay - why the hell not!

his ops+ of 120 would be a big improvement in our outfield menagerie. also, using hte same method i'd used yesterday to compare beltran and choo, he's expected to generate 2.8 WAR for the final 277 games of his career, spanning three years. i think this proves just how deeply flawed my method is. toldjaso!


mike morse, 5 years, 4.7 WAR, 517 games (this includes still-active ryan ludwick's stats)
hunter pence, 4 years 8.3 WAR, 561 games (this includes still-active torii hunter's stats)
curtis granderson, 3 years, 4.1 WAR, 355 games
raul ibanez... is too old for end-of-career comparables. they only go up to age 40.
jacoby ellsbury, 5 years, 6.4 WAR, 511 games (this includes still-active david dejesus's and shane victorino's stats)

ready for a surprise or two...?
david dejesus, 4 years, 8.4 WAR, 472 games
coco crisp, 4 years, 7.4 WAR, 518 games

so... what did we learn?




never let metsmarathon play with an ill-conceived, ill-executed tool.

[Edgy MD]

Seattle guys get some decent OPS+ numbers out of some otherwise pedestrian-looking stat lines. That must be one offense-oppressing ballpark.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Shin-Soo Choo�s name has arisen before as the man the Mets might spend on this winter, most notably by our John Harper several months ago. As the offseason draws closer, I can tell you that chatter linking the team to Choo is spreading, both around the league and inside the organization. �Hearing Choo is the guy they like,� said one rival executive last week, and he isn�t the only one in the industry making that connection. I ran that by a Mets official who has been briefed on Sandy Alderson�s thinking, and got this response: �I�m hearing that, too.� A second Mets source said that the team liked Choo -- this is no state secret, as the Cincinnati outfielder has a .425 on-base percentage this year (.389 career), with 20 home runs -- but are not interested in engaging in a crazy bidding war for the 31-year-old Scott Boras client. Basically, the Mets really like the player, but are comfortable turning elsewhere if the market outpaces what they expect (this is an unsurprising public position). If the Mets sign Choo, they would not want use him in center field, as the Reds have. Rookie Juan Lagares� brilliant defense probably prevents the team from spending on that position, and one team source noted that Choo would fit perfectly in right field, replacing the surprising production the team received this year from Marlon Byrd, albeit with a higher OBP. The Mets will probably look to sign or trade for a second corner outfielder. Eric Young Jr. has done well during his extended audition, but the team views him more as a fourth outfielder (and some in the organization would like to see Young at second base more often). Choo is not without his flaws. Ideally, he would be a few years younger -- and hitting better than .209 against lefties this year. You certainly don�t want to make a borderline platoon player your big offseason signing, though Choo�s .242 lifetime average in that category is slightly more comforting. It is important to note that the Mets have not yet begun their formal meetings about free agency, so these ideas are at an early stage. Whatever stage this is, though, people at Citi Field and elsewhere are anticipating that Choo will be a target.

[Zvon]

I'm glad they are hearing it.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The case against Shin-Soo Choo By Matt Meyers | ESPNNewYork.com The Mets have turned their attention to the offseason, amid expectations that the Wilpons will be spending like it�s 1998. And the apple of the Big Apple�s eye appears to be Shin-Soo Choo, the Reds right fielder who was second in the NL in on-base percentage. Choo is a fine player, and I can see why he will generate interest as a free agent, but when I look at Choo I see the next version of Jason Bay -- a 31-year-old outfielder with severe flaws coming of a year he is unlikely to replicate. The biggest problem with free agents -- particularly those coming off of great years -- is that it�s easy to assume that their most recent season is their true level of performance when it�s most likely not. The Mets can look at Choo�s .285/.423/.462 line and think he will repeat that for a few years, but what if his future performance is more in line with his 2011 performance: .283/.373/.441? Or even worse, 2010: .259/.344/.390. Considering Choo�s age, he�s much more likely to get worse than better. That would be palatable if he was starting from the level of a superstar, where he would hit the �very good� and �good� levels on his way down. But when you�re starting from �very good,� your decline phase gets ugly a lot quicker. (See "Bay, Jason".) Another other issue for Choo is that he�s useless against left-handed pitching, hitting .215/.347/.265 versus southpaws this season, not far off his career marks. While that OBP is respectable, it�s fueled by 13 hit-by-pitches. That�s actually a repeatable �skill,� but it also makes him more of an injury risk. Also, that slugging is putrid, so you can forget about extra-base hits against southpaws. You want to pay eight figures per year for that? �But he kills righties,� you might be thinking, and that�s true. The problem is that his weakness can be exploited by lefty relievers late in games, so it�s easy to imagine a situation when the Mets are actually playing meaningful September games and their second-best hitter can be neutralized by the Luis Avilans of the world. Furthermore, Great American Ballpark is a great place for left-handed hitters, with a home run factor of 126 for lefties in 2012. (In other words, lefties hit 26 percent more homers there than at an average park.) Citi Field had a home run factor of 92 for lefties that year, which means lefties homered 8 percent less frequently than at the average park. This plays out in Choo�s numbers, as he has a .948 OPS at home and .823 mark on the road. It�s worth remembering that Bay signed with the Mets after playing in Fenway Park, a perfect spot for right-handed power hitters. Citi Field, not so much. Choo would be leaving an environment perfectly suited to highlight his strengths and going to one that is almost certain to diminish them. Factor in his age and his impotence against lefties, and that�s the recipe for a free-agent disaster. The Mets are in good position to sign Choo because they have a protected draft pick. Therefore, they don�t have to give up their first-rounder to sign him, which makes him, or any high-profile free agent for that matter, a lot more attractive. He�d almost certainly be an upgrade over what the Mets have, but with all due respect to Andrew Brown and Lucas Duda, that�s faint praise. And when you consider that Hunter Pence just got a $90 million contract from the Giants without even testing the free-agent market, it�s probably going to take more than that to sign Choo. If the Mets end up giving Choo the $100-plus million it will likely take to sign him, I have a feeling their front office and fans are going to be severely disappointed. I know Mets fans are tired of waiting, but free agency is not a quick fix, and Choo is by no means the cure for what ails New York.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, everybody has seen that Choo is an intriguing investment but comes with few guarantees.

But that "spend like it's 1998," line... yeesh. Set the team up to disappoint, whydon'tcha?