R.A. Deserves His Own Brand New Contract, Too.

[batmagadanleadoff]

For Mets, re-signing R.A. Dickey likely to be expensive

NEW YORK � The dust has settled, the camera crews have packed up, and R.A. Dickey�s hype-riddled summer is almost over. His time in the national spotlight has faded. He is now merely one of the finest pitchers in the National League, a veritable Cy Young candidate, one who figures to play a prominent role in the Mets� offseason plans. The Mets hold a $5 million option on Dickey for 2013. But his long-term position in the organization appears unsettled as the 2012 season creeps toward its conclusion. A series of hurdles await general manager Sandy Alderson this offseason. For the third time, he will attempt to construct a major-league bullpen. His organization does not employ an outfielder capable of handling an everyday role for 2013, as even he admits �there aren�t a lot of obvious candidates.� Then, there are his two stars, both approaching free agency. Third baseman David Wright will likely command a nine-figure deal after the team picks up his $16 million option for 2013. Dickey burnishes his case with each sterling outing. Even so, Alderson shrugged off the pressure to re-sign the pair this winter. �Nothing with respect to 2013 rides on what we do with those two players,� he said last week. He added, �Their situations will be at the top of our list. But if we have to exercise options, we have to exercise options.� Wright occupies a special place in franchise lore. Alderson has made clear his intention to work out a long-term deal. Dickey represents a more complicated dilemma. Like most players, he would prefer not to negotiate once the 2013 season begins. That would allow him access to the volatile open market. Earlier this season, Dickey and the Mets discussed a short-term extension into at least 2014, according to people with knowledge of the talks. The people requested anonymity to protect the sensitivity of future negotiations. The team elected to wait and observe Dickey during the course of the season. What have they seen? One of the best pitchers in baseball. Dickey leads the National League in wins (15), complete games (4), strikeouts (166) and walks plus hits per inning (1.004). He trails reigning Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw by a third of an inning for the league lead in innings pitched. His 2.72 ERA is fourth best. In three seasons with the Mets, Dickey possesses a 2.97 ERA. If he throws another 54? innings in 2012, a reasonable sum with at least eight starts remaining, he�ll top 600 innings during his three seasons as a Met. He�ll also reach an elite � and expensive � plateau. From 2009 to 2011, only 14 pitchers threw more than 600 innings with at least a 3.50 ERA. The list resembles a Cy Young ballot, populated by players like Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and Justin Verlander. The average salary for those 14 pitchers in 2012 was just less than $15.5 million. The negotiations earlier this year never involved such lofty sums, according to a person with knowledge of the discussions. The person requested anonymity to protect the sensitivity of future negotiations. Dickey, of course, is unique. He turns 38 in October. His knuckleball flutters in the face of convention. He still considers himself a crusader against his trick pitch�s reputation. But if Dickey continued at his current pace, one competing National League executive indicated, he would almost certainly receive a three-year offer after 2013. �With his kind of knuckleball, you�ve got to believe [he can last] three or four more years, at least,� said the executive, who requested anonymity in order to speak freely about the situation. �He�s got such great makeup. He�s going to keep himself in great condition. He�s going to keep that edge for quite a while.� Dickey would prefer to remain a Met. He feels comfortable in his surroundings, and with the trust afforded him by the organization. But the temptations of the free agency are well-known. �Look at the pitching market,� the executive said. �The demand far outweighs the supply.� Consider the case of Mark Buehrle. Miami signed him to a four-year, $58 million deal last offseason. Buehrle possesses a much more distinguished track record than Dickey. He also is a 33-year-old who throws an 85-mph fastball and relies on generating weak contact. Alderson understands the terrain. When asked about balancing the needs for 2013 alongside the hassles of signing Dickey and Wright, he cited the quiet months of October, November and January. There will be time for talks. �We�ll keep working at it,� Alderson said. Eating up innings Here are the pitchers from 2009-2011 who threw 600 innings with at least a 3.50 ERA (ranked by lowest ERA). The Mets� R.A. Dickey is on pace for more than 600 innings pitched with a 3.00 ERA from 2010-2012. Pitcher IP ERA Roy Halladay 723? 2.53 Clayton Kershaw 606? 2.54 Felix Hernandez 722 2.73 Tim Lincecum 654? 2.87 Cliff Lee 676? 2.93 Matt Cain 662? 2.97 Chris Carpenter 665 3.02 Jered Weaver 671 3.03 Justin Verlander 715? 3.06 CC Sabathia 705 3.18 Zack Greinke 621 3.33 Cole Hamels 615? 3.35 Jon Lester 603 3.37 Dan Haren 701? 3.41

http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2012/08/for_mets_re-signing_ra_dickey.html

[Ceetar]

We're talking about his age 39, 40, and 41 season on a three year deal. Knuckleball or not, he's still pushing off a mound with his leg, landing on the other one.

This situation is quite unique. Will it be expensive? Maybe. But I don't believe he'd be getting a 3 year $60 million deal if he played out next year with his Mets career averages.

And because we're probably not talking about free agency, it's more about what Dickey expects and what the Mets offer than it is what other teams would value him at. options years at 8 million perhaps?

[duan]

I think if you went to RA Dickey with 36 million for next 4 seasons he'd be up for it.
I think it'd be the balance between upside and security, he's getting 3.5 mill extra for next and he's employed till 2016.

Would you go for it?

[seawolf17]

Boy, that's a long time, but the money's not bad. I would.

[Edgy MD]

I can't imagine that, on the verge of a Cy Young Award, he'd cash in for less that $10 million a year.

I'd jump all over it if he would.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: I can't imagine that, on the verge of a Cy Young Award, he'd cash in for less that $10 million a year. I'd jump all over it if he would.

well, he's 'signed' for 5 million next year. Thoughts about knuckleballers pitching until they're 45 are one thing, but does _he_ feel like he can get through 2013 without showing the signs of age that suggest more than a 2 year deal is risky?

[Gwreck]

Big money, short years.

3 Years, $40 million. $4 mil signing bonus and $12 mil a year for 2013, 2014 and 2015, option for 2016 at $12 million with a $3 million buyout.

[Ceetar]

How about a vesting option for 2016 based on 100 wins? (can tweak it to 105 or whatever works) That probably works out that if he stays healthy and reasonably effective, it'll kick in, otherwise it won't.

[Gwreck]

100 wins for whom?

You can't sign players to incentive contracts based on team performance.

No pitcher (or his agent) would ever agree to an option based on pitcher wins for obvious reasons.

[ashie62]

4 for 40

[Ceetar]

Gwreck wrote: 100 wins for whom? You can't sign players to incentive contracts based on team performance. No pitcher (or his agent) would ever agree to an option based on pitcher wins for obvious reasons.

100 career wins for R.A. Dickey.

You can't sign him based on the incentive to get (currently 44) wins maybe, but you could pay him for passing Randy Jones (100) on the All-Time wins list. This is basically the deal A-Rod has. It certainly doesn't matter if that incentive is for 4th on the list or 575th does it?

[Gwreck]

But, again, there is no way any player would sign an incentive clause based on pitcher wins.

[Ceetar]

Gwreck wrote: But, again, there is no way any player would sign an incentive clause based on pitcher wins.

sure there is. Maybe Dickey would sign for 3/30 and the Mets say 'hey, let's add in this incentive bit'. why wouldn't he sign it? Does he think he's testing free agency again at 41 and is going to get _more_?

[metirish]

There's a lot of money been thrown about in here, thankfully it's not ours. I was thinking 3/Y $27 million, he'd take that right now I bet, maybe up his option to meet the $9 million?

[Ceetar]

metirish wrote: There's a lot of money been thrown about in here, thankfully it's not ours. I was thinking 3/Y $27 million, he'd take that right now I bet, maybe up his option to meet the $9 million?

With Bay (and Santana) big on the books next year there's probably incentive on the Mets part to backload the deal and keep the option what it is. Although with an older pitcher you'd almost want to front load it.

[Edgy MD]

I would love it if every player in Met history got a Randy Jones clause in his contract, reading "Player only gets paid if he doesn't play as poorly as Randy Jones."

But I think you're thinking of Bobby Jones.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: I would love it if every player in Met history got a Randy Jones clause in his contract, reading "Player only gets paid if he doesn't play as poorly as Randy Jones." But I think you're thinking of Bobby Jones.

which one?

[Edgy MD]

I guess Bobby J., but he had 74.

But I see, you're talking about some general All-Time list. But really, agents work like hell (and the union does too) to keep players' salaries from being pinned to their actual performance.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: I guess Bobby J., but he had 74. But I see, you're talking about some general All-Time list. But really, agents work like hell (and the union does too) to keep players' salaries from being pinned to their actual performance.

Well, of course. I don't think they should be either, including the murkier games started/finished/played.

I don't think they can or will do something like this, but I was just throwing it out there as a thought experiment. How do you properly compensate a player of Dickey's age when he's performing to the level of someone 10 years younger and could possibly provide the same value as if he were in fact 28 and still guard against the risk of giving a 38 year old player a whole lot of commitment?

[Edgy MD]

You don't. You can try, but life is fraught with peril. You've got to move from risk aversion to risk management. The former is paralyzing. The latter is crucial.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: You don't. You can try, but life is fraught with peril. You've got to move from risk aversion to risk management. The former is paralyzing. The latter is crucial.

well yeah, but the best way to manage risk is option years, particularly ones based loosely on performance no? ;-)

[Edgy MD]

Mets, having fielded their share of offers for Dickey, have supposedly returned to the negotiating table with him, sources tell ESPN.

If I were Jon Niese, I'd be climbing Kilimanjaro NOW!!!!

OE: Jon Heyman and CBS Sports has them only six million apart, which is the kind of gap that can be bridged by a performance bonus or two.

[Guest Swan Swan H]

Edgy MD wrote: Mets, having fielded their share of offers for Dickey, have supposedly returned to the negotiating table with him, sources tell ESPN. If I were Jon Niese, I'd be climbing Kilimanjaro NOW!!!!

Good luck finding an oxygen mask that fits over that nose.

[metirish]

Mets, having fielded their share of offers for Dickey, have supposedly returned to the negotiating table with him, sources tell ESPN. If I were Jon Niese, I'd be climbing Kilimanjaro NOW!!!! OE: Jon Heyman and CBS Sports has them only six million apart, which is the kind of gap that can be bridged by a performance bonus or two.

Let's get this done.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I find myself hoping that Texas makes an irresistible offer.

[ashie62]

Per Rubin Mets offer 2/20 RA wants 26/28

Either way R.A. is set for life and doesnt have to really care if he pulls his hammie

Nice to see he has little value in Tex, KC, etc...

RA take the money and run or..

Do a Wakefield and sign one years.

[duan]

Going by that he's looking for essentially two extra years @ 13 per, meaning the 3 year costs in 31 million and the mets are offering 3 years for 26.
I'm wondering if you could do something like this.
3 years plus option @ 10 million or buyout @ 2.5 million.

That splits the difference in the minimum value, but gives the mets the chance of the upside of a 7.5 million dickey in 2016 if he can still throw the fucking thing. I was sort of imagining a cool wakefield style deal where that option then becomes for 2017 for 9 & 2 mill buyout and then 8 & 1 million and on ad infiintum. 65 year old hurler ahoy!

[Edgy MD]

I was thinking 26 million plus one million each for (a) 20 starts, ( 30 starts, and © making the all star team.

That may give him more risk than the Mets, so you can also add a fourth bonus mill for placing top five in the Cy Young voting.

[ashie62]

Sandy said today the trade environment has shifted of late.. Sounds like 5 prospects for a player..

[smg58]

Well certainly the Shields trade raised the bar for what the Mets need to ask for in return for Dickey -- especially since Dickey is not exactly asking for what an inferior pitcher just got from the Dodgers.