R.A. Deserves His Own Brand New Contract, Too.

[metirish]

You knew this was coming" Mets insider says Mets brass not happy with Dickey airing his distaste for the process at a Mets event at CF"

Paraphrasing right there but that in itself seems part of the dance with contract talks.

[Edgy MD]

"You're an angry elf."

[Vic Sage]

Over the last 3 years, Dickey has delivered 12.1 WAR to the Mets. Accepting the Fangraph estimate of $2.5M of salary/per point of WAR, that is about $30m of value that Dickey gave the Mets over the past 3 years. Is is so outrageous for him to ask for and expect $30m over the next 3 years? Especially considering he was only paid $12m for the last 3 (underpaying him by $18m for his production)?

Hell, I'd be asking for the $30m PLUS the $18m I didn't get in the first place. But he's not.

We should sign him to a 2-year/$20m extension, with a $2.5m signing bonus and a $2.5m buyout option for a $10m/3rd year (guaranteeing him $7.5/$10/$12.5 over the next 3 years, or $7.5/10/10/10 over 4). Plus, there should be appropriate contingency bonuses (Allstar, cy young, etc). Then, if we still want to trade him, we trade him. He'd probably have MORE value then, since he wouldn't be a FA at the end of the year. Maybe signed, he nets the "2 top prospects" they seem to be fishing for.

While there is likely to be some drop-off from last year's CY/5.6WAR performance, there's no reason to think he'd be less than the 3-4 WAR pitcher he was for the Mets before that, at least for the next few years, anyway. So i don't know why they are balking, except that it feels to me like their greasing the skids for his departure, in REYES-ish fashion.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

While there is likely to be some drop-off from last year's CY/5.6WAR performance, there's no reason to think he'd be less than the 3-4 WAR pitcher he was for the Mets before that, at least for the next few years, anyway. So i don't know why they are balking, except that it feels to me like their greasing the skids for his departure, in REYES-ish fashion.

[ashie62]

R.A. you are about 100 in baseball years. Try not to let your pride cause you to leave too much money on the table.

[ashie62]

smg58 wrote: Well certainly the Shields trade raised the bar for what the Mets need to ask for in return for Dickey -- especially since Dickey is not exactly asking for what an inferior pitcher just got from the Dodgers.

You'd think so...its like RA has incurable clap or something.

[smg58]

Fangraphs gives $4.5M per WAR, meaning Dickey has been worth $54M over the past three years for the Mets. (Of course, to be sabermetrically anal, the 12.1 WAR is based on ERA, when Fangraphs bases its WAR on FIP, or fielding-independent pitching. FIP is one of those bullshit stats, predicated on the notion that all balls put in play are created equal, that has become important because the people who made it said it was important. Plenty of good pitchers -- including Dickey and Gio Gonzalez -- consistently outperform their FIP by quite a bit.)

[Edgy MD]

FIP is more meaningful because of where it leads than what is. You accurately portray its flaws, but for over a century we've accepted ERA as the definitive measure of overall effectiveness by pitchers, despite its obvious flaws --- pretending all parks are equal, pretending all fielding is equal, pretending all runs belong to the pitcher who first allowed the runner on base, etc. We can and must do better, and FIP can help take us there.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: FIP is more meaningful because of where it leads than what is. You accurately portray its flaws, but for over a century we've accepted ERA as the definitive measure of overall effectiveness by pitchers, despite its obvious flaws --- pretending all parks are equal, pretending all fielding is equal, pretending all runs belong to the pitcher who first allowed the runner on base, etc. We can and must do better, and FIP can help take us there.

Indeed. I saw a better FIP recently (Beyond the boxscore? not sure where..) that took into account, or more accurately, took out of account, the balls in play bit. FIP despite saying it's fielding independent, awards points for put outs. the new formula went by PA instead of IP. Seemed to work better. I tried some similar calculations in the past but these people put in way more time than me.

Niese is one of those under perform FIP guys usually. Last year was better though, so it's interesting.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Dempster for 2 years/$26.5 M?

If the RAD negotiations divide is as Rubin described, the Mets deserve every bit of scorn they're getting.

[Vic Sage]

Fangraphs gives $4.5M per WAR, meaning Dickey has been worth $54M over the past three years for the Mets. (Of course, to be sabermetrically anal, the 12.1 WAR is based on ERA, when Fangraphs bases its WAR on FIP, or fielding-independent pitching. FIP is one of those bullshit stats, predicated on the notion that all balls put in play are created equal, that has become important because the people who made it said it was important. Plenty of good pitchers -- including Dickey and Gio Gonzalez -- consistently outperform their FIP by quite a bit.)

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-dollar-value-of-a-win/

...the overal value of a win is less than the market price � in general, it�s about $2.5 million per win, significantly less than the going rate for wins in free agency.

[ashie62]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Dempster for 2 years/$26.5 M? If the RAD negotiations divide is as Rubin described, the Mets deserve every bit of scorn they're getting.

RA just punched a wall and broke his ......

[ashie62]

Ceetar wrote: Edgy MD wrote: FIP is more meaningful because of where it leads than what is. You accurately portray its flaws, but for over a century we've accepted ERA as the definitive measure of overall effectiveness by pitchers, despite its obvious flaws --- pretending all parks are equal, pretending all fielding is equal, pretending all runs belong to the pitcher who first allowed the runner on base, etc. We can and must do better, and FIP can help take us there. Indeed. I saw a better FIP recently (Beyond the boxscore? not sure where..) that took into account, or more accurately, took out of account, the balls in play bit. FIP despite saying it's fielding independent, awards points for put outs. the new formula went by PA instead of IP. Seemed to work better. I tried some similar calculations in the past but these people put in way more time than me. Niese is one of those under perform FIP guys usually. Last year was better though, so it's interesting.

ERA and FIP are both fair metrics.

[Edgy MD]

Tweetin' Ken Rosenthal wrote: All signs point to #Mets trading Dickey. Little progress with extension, 1 yr./$5M looks more attractive by the day. #Rangers still in mix.

Don't know what to make of that. Clarity is tough in the number of characters you get for a tweet, but if "all" signs point to a trade, how is the $5 million looking more attractive? To Dickey? To the Mets? To the Cardinals?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I assume it means to the acquiring team.

[Ceetar]

funny, also a 'report' today that the supposed extension Dickey is asking for would also be attractive to suitors.

[Edgy MD]

It certainly would, as it sure seems to be under market. And even if Dickey gets the full two years, $26 million, he should ask for and would probably deserve a no-trade clause.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think he would deserve it too, but the vibe I'm getting is that the Mets don't want to give him one.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: It certainly would, as it sure seems to be under market. And even if Dickey gets the full two years, $26 million, he should ask for and would probably deserve a no-trade clause.

Could be something like that is the sticking point, and not the money.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Now Sanchez for 5 years/$80M. That's a AAV of $16M. For ANIBAL FUCKING SANCHEZ.

2 years. No trade. Do it. Now. Give him a book-cave and one of those libraries where you pull a book, and it shoots you somewhere like the pitcher's mound or clubhouse. Posthaste.

[metirish]

Looks like the Cubs drove the price for Sanchez up......that is an absolutely crazy contract for this

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchan01.shtml


Mike Pelfrey must be thinking that could have been me....

[ashie62]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Now Sanchez for 5 years/$80M. That's a AAV of $16M. For ANIBAL FUCKING SANCHEZ. 2 years. No trade. Do it. Now. Give him a book-cave and one of those libraries where you pull a book, and it shoots you somewhere like the pitcher's mound or clubhouse. Posthaste.

The 2 years for Dickey just became 30 with Prejudice.

Nice job Fred...

[ashie62]

Now I'm thinking sign and trade and an eventual Dickey tirade against Met management.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Edgy MD wrote: All signs point to #Mets trading Dickey. Little progress with extension, 1 yr./$5M looks more attractive by the day. #Rangers still in mix. Don't know what to make of that. Clarity is tough in the number of characters you get for a tweet, but if "all" signs point to a trade, how is the $5 million looking more attractive? To Dickey? To the Mets? To the Cardinals?

Rosenthal elaborates:

� Mets. All signs point to a trade of NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. The Mets have made little progress in their attempt to sign Dickey to an extension, and the right-hander�s $5 million salary for next season looks more attractive by the day. The Rangers are among the clubs interested in Dickey, sources say, but the price remains high. The Mets are telling clubs that they have an acceptable trade offer for Dickey, but they are trying to get an even better package, one source says.

[metirish]

The Mets have made little progress in their attempt to sign Dickey to an extension,

little progress or little effort to sign him I wonder.

[ashie62]

Ashie62 wrote: Now I'm thinking sign and trade and an eventual Dickey tirade against Met management.

Dickey to Toronto for Arenibia and Gose....seems close