Jose Reyes six-year prediction poll

[Benjamin Grimm]

I know the odds are against us still remembering the existence of this thread at the end of the 2017 season, but I'll put it out there anyway.

How many regular-season games do you predict Jose Reyes will play during the course of his new six-year contract, from 2012 through 2017?

If he were to play 162 games in each of the six seasons, [crossout:3g03aqaa]I'll soak my sneakers in vinegar and then eat them[/crossout:3g03aqaa] he will have played 972 games.

[metirish]

600 to 699

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I predict he plays more games for another team or team(s) than he will for the Marlins.

[nymr83]

I took 600-699.

How many does he have to play to make the contract ok? If the Mets had signed this deal and he gave them 4 "full years" (150 games each), 1 year with a significant DL stint (120 games) and 1 lost season (50 games) that about 770 games, and I think you can put that in a range of 750 to 800... 750+ games out of this contract and its a good deal, imo.

I think he falls about a half-season short of that and gives them 675 games. The contract isn't a disaster but it isn't amazing either. If they win 1 championship with his help or make several playoff trips, it'll be worth it.

[Vic Sage]

i think he probably averages 120 games a year, which puts him at 720.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I voted for the 600's, but wouldn't be too surprised if he made it into the 700's. I would be surprised if he hit 800 or more.

[TransMonk]

600 to 699

[HahnSolo]

I went 700s. Three full seasons would get him to the 470s (486 if he played 162 games in each of those three years). I know three full years is no guarantee, but crazier things have happened.

To hit 700 from there he'd only have to average 80+ games in the other three years.

[TransMonk]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I predict he plays more games for another team or team(s) than he will for the Marlins.

I won't go this far (at least not over the next 6 years), but I do believe Reyes will be dealt before this contract is up.

[Frayed Knot]

TransMonk wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I predict he plays more games for another team or team(s) than he will for the Marlins. I won't go this far (at least not over the next 6 years), but I do believe Reyes will be dealt before this contract is up.

It'll be interesting to see what'll happen with the Marlins - both on the Reyes front and in general.

They've been saddled in a bad stadium in a bad location with an indifferent fan-base in a bad sports city for a number of years now. On the other hand they've also been collecting revenue sharing buck$ by the trainload while not putting any of it into the team and have now been handed a virtually free stadium that will help them at least on the sight-lines, weather & location fronts.

But while an attendance increase is almost assured are they really going to jump from drawing in the hundreds (almost literally on some nights) to 30K+ on a regular basis once the novelty factor wears off? Also, FAs tend to work best on clubs that are using them for the final pieces in their puzzle and not for teams coming off last place finishes. All this sudden spending - for Reyes + Bell + who knows where it stops - and particularly the timing of the spending could look really bad in a couple of years.

[Frayed Knot]

As far as the original poll question, I've tended to be less pessimistic than most on the Reyes injury front so I'm casting a vote for 800+

[batmagadanleadoff]

As far as predicting the impact that the Marlins' new stadium will have on attendance, my baseball friends in the Miami area (ed., small sample size) have always maintained that Miami's rain storms, brief but regular, more than anything else is what's kept fans away from the game. So we'll see if they were right what with Miami's new retractable roof.

As far as games played by Reyes over the next seven years, wouldn't it make a difference if he lands on the DL for 50 or 60 games next season as opposed to, say, six years out?

[Frayed Knot]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: As far as predicting the impact that the Marlins' new stadium will have on attendance, my baseball friends in the Miami area (ed., small sample size) have always maintained that Miami's rain storms, brief but regular, more than anything else is what's kept fans away from the game. So we'll see if they were right what with Miami's new retractable roof.

That's the hope anyway. But this spending spree of theirs has the whiff of trying to go from 0 to 60 in 10 seconds and so they better be right about how big a boost they're going to get.

As far as games played by Reyes over the next seven years, wouldn't it make a difference if he lands on the DL for 50 or 60 games next season as opposed to, say, six years out?

It's just a simple question: based on what you know of Reyes's career to date how many games do you expect him to be healthy enough to pay over the next six seasons?

[Gwreck]

For all the talk about his health, Reyes did average 158.25 games over a 4 year stretch from 2005-2008.
Yes, he will be 29 next June but most players don't start a decline in skills or health that early.

It is plausible -- if not likely -- that Reyes' health would allow him to average 135-145 games a year for the first 4 years of the deal (up to to the season in which he turns 32 mid-year).

I see him getting to 750, +/- 25 games, with "average" luck.

[Benjamin Grimm]

160 games in 2012 for the Marlins.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yabbut

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I predict he plays more games for another team or team(s) than he will for the Marlins.

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: FAs tend to work best on clubs that are using them for the final pieces in their puzzle and not for teams coming off last place finishes. All this sudden spending - for Reyes + Bell + who knows where it stops - and particularly the timing of the spending could look really bad in a couple of years.

And when I said years I meant months.

[nymr83]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Yabbut John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I predict he plays more games for another team or team(s) than he will for the Marlins.

Not a lock but looking pretty good!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Looks like he'll play fewer than 100 games this year, possibly a lot fewer.

[Benjamin Grimm]

2012 with Miami: 160 games.
2013 with Toronto: 93 games.
Total so far: 253 games.

If Jose plays all 162 games for each of the remaining four years of his contract (and this poll) he'll end up with 901.

[Frayed Knot]

And since no one guessed 900+, he'll need to average a minimum of 137/yr over the next four seasons for the group who selected 800-899 to be correct.

Between 112 and 137/yr for the next group (700-799)
or
between 87 and 112/yr for the group choosing 600-699 (the most common answer).

And the one person who picked 400-499 needs Jose to average between 37 & 61 games/year over the next four.



I still like the 700-799 pick

[A Boy Named Seo]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: 2012 with Miami: 160 games. 2013 with Toronto: 93 games. Total so far: 253 games. If Jose plays all 162 games for each of the remaining four years of his contract (and this poll) he'll end up with 901.

143 in 2014, 396 total.

He's averaged 132 games the first three years, on pace for 792. Also, props to JCL for immediately predicting he'd play more games for a team not called the Marlins.

[Gwreck]

512 games through the first 4 years.

[Benjamin Grimm]

So the maximum possible now is 836.

I voted for the 600's range, but it looks like those who voted in the 700's are looking pretty good.

(Oh, and props to Seo and Gwreck for remembering to bump this poll each of the last two offseasons.)

[Gwreck]

572 through 5 seasons. (2012-2016)

[Benjamin Grimm]

Thanks for remembering! It looks like this poll is going to make it after all!

We now know that the final count will be somewhere between 572 and 734.

[nymr83]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Thanks for remembering! It looks like this poll is going to make it after all! We now know that the final count will be somewhere between 572 and 734.

the poll is - arguably - already over and the result known as the original post indicated he need to play the games under the contract he signed with the Marlins - he has since been released and signed as a free agent - not claimed off waivers which would continue the contract.

during the course of his new six-year contract, from 2012 through 2017?

[Frayed Knot]

Nymr83 wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: Thanks for remembering! It looks like this poll is going to make it after all! We now know that the final count will be somewhere between 572 and 734. the poll is - arguably - already over and the result known as the original post indicated he need to play the games under the contract he signed with the Marlins - he has since been released and signed as a free agent - not claimed off waivers which would continue the contract. during the course of his new six-year contract, from 2012 through 2017?

The only difference between being released-then-resigned vs claimed-on-waivers is who winds up paying what percentage of that contract. The deal is still the deal and he's still getting paid based on it.
IOW, it's the time frame here which is the important part rather than the accounting particulars.

[smg58]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I predict he plays more games for another team or team(s) than he will for the Marlins.

If he plays 101 games for the Mets this season, he will have played more games for the Mets than he did for the Marlins.

[Gwreck]

Final totals:

2012: 160
2013: 93
2014: 143
2015: 116
2016: 60
2017: 145

717 games total.

---
Reyes WAR:
2012 2.9
2013 2.6
2014 3.2
2015 0.3
2016 0.4
2017: -0.6

I suppose from a health perspective (which was the original point of this thread), Jose did pretty well.
Too bad he turned out to be a bad person whose career collapsed after being traded to Colorado.